Katie makes her picks.

My brother always makes his picks based on things that he likes – mascots, family loyalty, etc. Silly!!!! Picking a team to win because you think a school sounds like your cousin’s name – despite them playing without their star player. Just insane. My daddy says you have to use data to make informed decisions. Then again, he does horribly at this as well – so I just don’t know what to do.

I am still too young to build a model. One of these days I will have to figure out what a maximum likelihood estimate is – but why bother if I can use other people expertise. Growing older means growing wiser. I can use these things called words to get Mommy and Daddy to get me things. Although I still find a lot more fun wandering through the kitchen and pointing at things. Mommy keeps telling me to use my words – but she seems to understand what I want anyways. Cereal, melon, and anything that Daddy puts on his plate. Especially when he makes Ramen Noodles – I can eat a couple small bowls of those noodles. Daddy keeps asking me why I eat his lunch instead of mine – it is because his tastes so much better – noodles = Yum!!!!

Last year, I did much better when I used the Vegas lines. I was 27-5 in the first round. Then, things fell apart when I didn’t have any more predictions. So, I asked Daddy to try to build me a model that would come up with a line for the game. Daddy at first said that he was very busy setting up the site, but I charmed him. It was easy – all I had to say was “Peeze! Tank you, Daddy!!!! Peeze! Peeze!” and he started to figure out how he could help me.

OK – so lets look at the first round games. In the South, I pick Iowa State (according to Vegas) as upsets. In the West, I pick no upsets. In the East, I will take West Virginia. And in the Midwest, I will go crazy and pick Creighton (according to Vegas), San Diego State (according to Vegas) and Purdue as upsets. Weird, I picked more favored seeds as upsets than I did actual double digit seeds. But no worries. Vegas went 27-5 last year – I have confidence in them.

This is probably where my confidence should end. Daddy didn’t seem to spend a lot of time building a model for me. He also said there was only a few variables in the model – mainly focusing on adjusted scoring margin. This should make me really nervous since I did poorly when I used Adjusted Scoring Margin two years ago. But what am I to do. I don’t know any Vegas statisticians who could tell me what the lines would be if these two teams won their first round games. And using the odds to win like last year fell apart.

In the South, I will take Kentucky, Wichita State as an upset, UNLV as an upset, and Duke to the Sweet 16. Then Kentucky to play Duke in the Elite 8 – with Kentucky winning the region. Well, the Wildcats are the #1 team in the country. So, I guess that makes sense. And Daddy’s model did give me a couple upsets. I guess this could work.

In the West, I will take Michigan State, New Mexico as an upset, Marquette, and Missouri to the Sweet 16. Then Michigan State to play Missouri in the Elite 8 – with the Spartans winning the region. Wait, this looks an awful lot like the other region – except no 6 seed upset. Starting to have my fears about this. After all, Daddy doesn’t seem to be using this model at all to make his picks.

In the East, I will take Syracuse, Wisconsin, Florida State and Ohio State to the Sweet 16 – no upsets. Oh my, this is getting worse. Then, Syracuse will play Ohio State in the Elite 8 – but this time I will pick an upset with Ohio State winning the region. Well, at least I am not choosing all the top 4 seeds. But I still think Daddy is pulling my leg with this.

In the Midwest, I will pick UNC, Temple as an upset, Georgetown, and Kansas. Then, as one would predict with this, I am going to pick UNC and Kansas to the Elite 8 – with the Tar Heels going to the Final Four.

Well, the Final Four gets interesting at least from an upset. I am going to take Kentucky over Michigan State. But then, I have both UNC and Kentucky as 1 point favorites over Ohio State. So, according to the rules, I will pick the Buckeyes to upset the Tar Heels – and then also upset Kentucky to win the National Championship.

That will have to do for this year. I am going to need to come up with something more interesting than this. But I am only 2 – my creativity is reserved for torturing my brother, not picking college basketball games. I would much rather the TV have Curious George, Mickey Mouse, or Dora on that basketball. But Daddy seems obsessed. Besides, mommy brought out these really cool things called beads that I can put on pieces of string. They are so pretty.

That being said, Nanny and Gpapa have been training me and my brother to cheer for North Carolina – I even have how well I am learning the cheers on video. Check it out below – and enjoy the games.

---- Baby Lunatic (Katie Hodgson)