Bracketology 2013

This is coming in a little late – I was so busy with the stats that I didn’t have time to come up with lots of thoughts on this.  I quickly put my picks into an Excel file and never got the chance to post to the site before the tourney was announced.

 

But a couple of my initial thoughts when I was coming up with the bracket.

  • I had to invite Middle Tennessee State – they were left out last year with a ridiculously good record, they scheduled tougher teams this year and ran up a similarly great record – just to lose in the Sun Belt tournament.  You have to invite a Top 30 RPI mid-major team that wins 28 games, even if they are against weaker competition than a ACC, Big East or Big 10 school would see.
  • I feel bad for Miami (FL).  I think they are better than Gonzaga.  But I can’t see them knocking a #1 ranked in the polls mid-major champion like Gonzaga.  And I can’t see them taking a #1 away from Louisville, Indiana or Kansas.  I think their profile deserves a #1 but just can’t see it happening.
  • As for the rest of the ACC, they shot themselves in the foot.  I can’t believe 8-10 Maryland is really in the conversation despite their conference tournament run.  And everyone was hoping to use the tournament to see which Virginia team would show up – the one that beats teams like Duke and Wisconsin or the one that loses to teams like Old Dominion and Delaware.  Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, they did not look good against NC State – probably doing in their tourney chances.
  • I don’t know what to make of the SEC.  Ole Miss’s run puts them as the top of the 12-6 teams.  Kentucky just hasn’t looked like a tournament team without Noel.  Tennessee has the best profile – but then lost to Alabama in the tourney.  Alabama did well in the tournament but just never was able to win against a top 50 RPI team.  I think if I have to rank them, I have to take Tennessee’s better overall profile vs. the head-to-head victories for Alabama – but it is close.
  • I really want to punish Minnesota and not invite them to tournament.  I hate the idea of a team that goes 8-10 in the conference gets invited because the conference is just that good and the team did well in the non-conference.  But they really did beat a lot of good teams this year – I think that will keep them in barely.
  • My last spot looks like it is up for grabs between Tennessee and La Salle.  I don’t like the way that La Salle ended the season.  I think that Tennessee’s best victories (Florida, Missouri and Wichita St) are better than La Salle’s (Butler, VCU and La Salle).  In the end, while I realize a couple games shouldn’t influence me so much – but I notice that Tennessee played two good Atlantic 10 teams – Massachusetts and Xavier, and won both games.  La Salle drew UMass and Xavier twice in the season as well – losing both games.   I am going to go with Tennessee.

 

1

Louisville

Indiana

Kansas

Gonzaga

2

Miami FL

Duke

Ohio St

Georgetown

3

Florida

Michigan St

Marquette

Syracuse (4)

4

New Mexico (3)

Michigan

St Louis

Kansas St

5

Arizona (6)

Oklahoma St

Wisconsin

Pitt (8)

6

UNC (8)

Creighton (7)

UCLA

Notre Dame (7)

7

Memphis (6)

UNLV (5)

VCU (5)

Oregon (12)

8

Butler (6)

Illinois (7)

Cincinnati (10)

Ole Miss (12)

9

Colorado St (8)

NC State (8)

Missouri

Iowa St (10)

10

San Diego St (7)

Wichita St (9)

Colorado

Villanova (9)

11

Belmont

St. Mary's

Oklahoma (10)

Cal (12)

12

Temple (9)

Minnesota (11) /Boise St (13)

Middle Tenn St (11) /Tennessee (NR)

South Dakota St (13)

13

Akron (12)

Bucknell (11)

New Mexico St

Valparaiso (14)

14

Davidson

Montana (13)

Harvard

Florida Gulf Coast (15)

15

Iona

Pacific

Albany

Northwestern St (14)

16

Western Kentucky

LIU Brooklyn

Southern/NC A&T

James Madison/Liberty

 

My Last 4 Out:   La Salle, Alabama, Southern Miss, Kentucky.

 

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Well, I did really good on the top – getting 14 of 16 right.  Then things kind of fell apart…..

 

So, if I look at how I did – according to the Bracket Matrix……

 

 

LUNATIC

LUNARDI (ESPN)

PALM (CBS)

EVANS (YAHOO)

FAGAN (SN)

GLOCKNER (SI)

Correct in the Field

67

68

67

67

67

67

Correct Seed

34

34

33

33

31

31

Correct +/- 1 seed

56

58

55

59

59

63

TOTAL

325

330

322

326

322

326

 

Still finished in middle of the pack.  But considering that I spent under 2 hours just looking at the RPI, conference standings and best victories to come up with this – I find it a little sad.  If I hadn’t been stubborn about La Salle, I would have finished 1 point behind Joe Lunardi – the ESPN guy that I hate for inconsistency.  For all the criticism I give Joe, I still have to give him tremendous credit for putting his picks out the whole season.  It leaves him open to criticism for the whole year. 

 

But this exercise shows this isn’t that hard – you watch some college basketball games and understand how teams rank in their conference, then you can probably predict the bracket pretty accurately as well.