So here is my lame attempt to
predict the bracket. While I
really enjoy all the bracketology articles, this is
done to show that this is not that hard. The bracketologists
spend all year writing articles and rank ordering this – but as you could
see from the bubble watch page – this isn’t that hard. By the time you lock down
almost every team with an RPI in the top 20, and every major conference team
with an RPI in the top 40, you make the realization that there are only a pretty
small handful of teams yet.
So, when they brag that they get 67 of 68 teams
right – remember 32 are given to them because the conference tourney
winners get a bid and another 20-25 teams are given by just following common
sense with the RPI (or just looking at the top teams from the major
conferences). They are really
saying they got 9 of 10 teams right – which
isn’t bad, but this exercise is done to show that you can figure that out
with 1-2 days of work.
At the top of the bracket, it came
down to 7 teams
· Villanova is the easy #1 team – this looked like a
race between them, Kansas and UNC – but the Wildcats were the only one
who won their conference tournament giving them the spot
· Kansas gets the #2 team – while they lost the #1 spot
because of their quarterfinal loss to TCU, I suspect that the committee takes
into account the suspension of one of the Jayhawks star players for that
game.
· Gonzaga gets the #3 team – I am not sure of the order
if they will be 3rd or 4th, but they won their conference
tournament, only lost 1 game this year, and had some great non-conference
victories this year (including Arizona)
· North Carolina gets the #4 team – At the end of the
day, I can’t see the committee not rewarding the ACC’s regular
season champion.
· I thought briefly about Kentucky – they did beat UNC
in December, but only have one more top 25 victory over Florida
· I also thought about Duke – winning the ACC tournament
really boosted their stock, but I couldn’t see the committee putting Duke
ahead of UNC based on the regular season standings.
· Finally, I considered Arizona – but all the other
teams above had more top wins (the Wildcats only have the Pac 10 championship
against Oregon – who was missing a top player – and UCLA
Now for the all
important bubble – I found myself looking at 10 teams with only 6
spots.
· Marquette led this group with having 7 top 50 victories
including a big victory over Villanova
· Vanderbilt gets the next nod with having 6 top 50 victories
including 3 against Florida – they would have been higher if it
wasn’t for the 15 losses, which was excusable because they played so many
top opponents
· Rhode Island is next – they get in thanks to victories
over Cincinnati, VCU and getting to the Atlantic 10 final – helps that
the bubble is pretty weak
· Wake Forest is next – they have victories over
Louisville, Miami FL, and Virginia Tech, and all 13 of their losses came
against top 100 teams so they have no bad losses (and 10 of those losses were
away from home where it is tougher to win).
· USC had two good victories against UCLA and SMU – also
only had one bad loss on the road at Arizona St (which is less than most of the
bubble teams can say). Their 24-9
record was also the best of all the major conference bubble teams.
· Kansas State gets the last spot – they played their
way into this spot with their big victory against Baylor in the Big 12
tournament – add to that a second victory against Baylor in the regular
season, along with West Virginia and Oklahoma St gave the best remaining
resume.
· Cal was the first team out – while they played many
top teams close, they just didn’t pull a big win. The only at-large team that they were
able to beat was the USC team we put in a couple spots above. USC got the nod of being able to
beat someone other than a bubble team.
· Illinois State was next – the only top 50 team they
played was Wichita State – which they beat once out of three times. That meant to get an idea of this
team out of conference, we were stuck looking at their games against the top
100, which was a victory to New Mexico and losses to TCU and San
Francisco. They might have had the
best RPI of the bubble teams, but their schedule comes back to haunt them
· Georgia is next – they have a similar profile to Cal
– they beat the teams they were supposed to beat, but in their 10 games
against top 50 teams, they could only manage a victory against fellow bubble
team Vanderbilt. They needed
a couple more of these games to make the tourney
· Syracuse rounds out the bubble – they had victories
similar to Marquette and Vanderbilt – winning 6 top 50 games, including
Duke, Florida St and Virginia.
But because the Orange refused to schedule games away from home in the
non-conference (only a forced road game at Wisconsin as part of the ACC/Big 10
challenge and a neutral tourney games against South Carolina and UConn) and
those games weren’t that challenging, their RPI inflated to 84. Having 5 losses against teams with
RPIs over 100 and a lack of road wins cancels out all the great victories at
home against the top of the ACC.
· I briefly considered Iowa, Alabama, TCU, Houston and Indiana
– which shows how Syracuse’s RPI of 84 made it into the first 4
out.
Now, because Charlie has Cub Scouts
and I won’t be able to update things live during Sunday’s games,
there are 6 contingencies that need to be dealt with – the 6 conference
finals that are being played today.
· If Rhode Island wins the Atlantic 10 championship, they
can’t play in the First 4 play-in. In this case, the play-in game
would shift to the Midwest and Vanderbilt would play Wake Forest. Rhode Island would still be an 11
seed
· The Sun Belt tournament is Troy vs. Texas St – the
winner of that game is one of the 16 seed first 4 play-ins.
· If Yale beats Princeton in the Ivy championship, New Mexico
St will move up a seed and take Princeton’s place in the West –
Yale will become the 14 seed in the West.
· If SMU beats Cincinnati in the American championship, they
will flip-flop positions, SMU will become the 5 seed in the South and
Cincinnati will fall to the 6 seed in the East
· If Arkansas beats Kentucky in the SEC championship, they
will move up a seed for that big victory. They will take the 6 seed in the
West. This will make the Big
10 winner the 6 seed in the Midwest and the Big 10 loser the 7 seed in the West
· Because the Big 10 game is late and because of how close the
profiles look between Wisconsin and Michigan, they will both be 6 seeds
(unless, of course, the SEC scenario happens with Arkansas beating Kentucky)
|
|
EAST |
SOUTH |
MIDWEST |
WEST |
|
1 |
Villanova (BIG EAST) |
North Carolina |
Kansas |
Gonzaga (WCC) |
|
16 |
UC Davis (BIG WEST) / NC Central (MEAC) |
Jacksonville St (OVC) |
New Orleans (SOUTHLAND) / Troy (SUN BELT*) |
Mt. St. Mary's (NEC) |
|
8 |
Miami FL |
VCU |
South Carolina |
Dayton |
|
9 |
Oklahoma St |
Seton Hall |
Virginia Tech |
Northwestern |
|
5 |
Purdue |
SMU (AMERICAN*) |
Butler |
Virginia |
|
12 |
Vermont (AMERICA EAST) |
UNC-Wilmington (COLONIAL) |
Middle Tennessee St (CONF USA) |
Nevada (MT WEST) |
|
4 |
Florida St |
West Virginia |
Notre Dame |
Iowa St (BIG 12) |
|
13 |
Bucknell
(PATRIOT) |
Winthrop (BIG SOUTH) |
East Tennessee St (SOUTHERN) |
Princeton (IVY*) |
|
6 |
Cincinnati |
Creighton |
Michigan |
Wisconsin (BIG 10*) |
|
11 |
USC / Kansas St |
Rhode Island (ATLANTIC 10) |
Vanderbilt / Wake Forest |
Marquette |
|
3 |
Florida |
Baylor |
UCLA |
Louisville |
|
14 |
Iona (MAAC) |
Florida Gulf Coast (ATLANTIC SUN) |
Northern Kentucky (HORIZON) |
New Mexico St (WAC) |
|
7 |
Maryland |
Minnesota |
St. Mary's CA |
Arkansas |
|
10 |
Wichita St (MVC) |
Providence |
Xavier |
Michigan St |
|
2 |
Oregon |
Kentucky (SEC*) |
Duke (ACC) |
Arizona (PAC 12) |
|
15 |
Kent St (MAC) |
Texas Southern (SWAC) |
North Dakota (BIG SKY) |
South Dakota St (SUMMIT) |
We will see how I do…… J
The Lunatic – master bracketologist
(well – in his delusional world)
Well, I still struggled with seeding, only getting 36 teams
with the correct seed. But I
knocked my main goal out of the park – I got all 68 teams correct (or as
I mentioned at the top, I got 10 out of 10 on the bubble correct). Based on the way the scoring for
the Bracket Matrix works, this is one of my best years – at 340 points.
Even cooler, I beat the two main bracketologists
– Joe Lunardi from ESPN and Jerry Palm from
CBS. Although most
participating on the Bracket Matrix project beat them. If I had just got 3 more seeds
right (of which I almost got 2 – I almost at the last minute switched
Oregon and Louisville because of their center’s injury, that would have
put me at 344…. Still, this is I think one of the
first years that I beat 3 of the 6 bracketologists
that I track from the media.
|
LUNATIC |
LUNARDI (ESPN) |
PALM (CBS) |
EVANS (YAHOO) |
FAGAN (SN) |
BELLER(SI) |
MANDEL(FOX) |
|
|
Correct in the Field |
68 |
67 |
68 |
68 |
68 |
68 |
68 |
|
Correct Seed |
36 |
33 |
32 |
40 |
37 |
37 |
40 |
|
Correct +/- 1 Seed |
64 |
62 |
62 |
62 |
65 |
61 |
62 |
|
TOTAL |
340 |
329 |
330 |
346 |
343 |
339 |
346 |
Maybe this off-season, I will figure out why I can’t
seed the teams very well. Who
am I kidding – I will just pick the teams on the final weekend like always.
The Lunatic – master bracketologist
(maybe even in the real world)