One thing the Lunatic doesn’t do is give up – while
I tend to successfully do my main goal of getting as many of the at-large teams
as the media experts, I rarely seem to do better than them when it comes to
ranking the teams. The Lunatic
comes back for his beating each year, including his delusional attempt to
predict the bracket and pick the games against the spread.
But part of my fun each year is showing that this is not this
hard. Bracketologists
spend all season writing articles trying to generate discussion by telling you
that your favorite school is going to be a 9 seed
based on their 10-4 record in December.
Maybe we can get more insight from ESPN’s BPI model where they
predict the 2nd place team in the SEC has a 37% chance of getting
the last #1 seed – right before they lose another game. But even without having ESPN’s BPI
model to give ridiculous predictions of where teams will land, the reality is
this simply isn’t as hard as they make it out to be.
I don’t remember a season where a top 20 RPI team missed
the tournament. I only remember 2
teams in the AP Top 25 (Utah St in 2004 and SMU in 2014) who didn’t get
an invite, and obviously both of those teams are from the smaller
conferences. In fact, if you are
from one of the major conferences, you probably can count on your dance ticket
if you simply have a top 40 RPI.
So, bragging about getting 67 of 68 teams right when you are given 32
conference tournament winners and another 20-25 teams by just following common
sense, you are really only talking about getting 9 of 10 teams right.
This year, I am going to spend a ridiculous amount of time to
rank order the teams in conference.
And I will still probably not seed the teams correctly. This will be my bubble watch type page…..
Locks are teams I am most confident about – and/or that I
feel are safe enough that I don’t need to spend too much time discussing.
NOTE: Have to go get dinner before the selection show – If
Cincinnati loses to Houston, I am going to swap them with my top 3 seed –
which was Michigan State. If
Houston wins, I think that will bump them over Wichita State.
ACC:
Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami FL, Virginia Tech, NC
State
Bubble:
· Florida St (LAST 4 IN) – They got the bump over the other
ACC teams because they had the best wins.
While losing the 8/9 game to Louisville in the ACC tournament, it
doesn’t take away that Florida St has beaten UNC, Clemson, Miami,
Louisville on the road, Florida on the road, and Virginia Tech on the road.
· Louisville (FIRST 4 OUT) – They needed that victory at
Virginia. Without it, their best
wins were against Florida State and Virginia Tech. In the end, going 3-10 against the
Quadrant 1 teams knocked them out.
· Syracuse (FIRST 4 OUT) – Syracuse also needed one more
victory (or at least not to get destroyed by UNC). Going 4-8 against the Quadrant 1
teams was just not enough to make it in.
· Notre Dame (NEXT 4 OUT) – I entertained the whole Bonzie Colson injury thing for a while. But then you see that the Irish
went 2-9 against Quadrant 1 (with wins against Wichita State and Syracuse)
– that is just not enough.
Big 12:
Locks: Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
Bubble:
· Kansas State (IN) – They just had the better record in
conference – and with as good as the Big 12 was this year, that gets them
in.
· Texas (LAST 4 IN) – All 14 of the Longhorns losses were in
the top 2 quadrants. And they had
victories against Texas Tech, TCU, West Virginia, Alabama, Butler and two
against Oklahoma. The Longhorns
sneak in.
· Oklahoma (LAST 4 IN) – This was my last team in. I simply can’t get past that they
went 6-9 in Quadrant 1 – that is better than any of the other teams on
the bubble. The Sooners sneak in.
· Baylor, Oklahoma State (OUT) – I considered both the other
8-10 teams in the Big 12. But their
RPIs are too high for a team that traditionally makes the tournament.
Big East:
Locks: Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Providence, Butler
Bubble:
· Marquette – Only going 3-8 against the Quadrant 1 put them
behind the last 4 teams that I put in.
I seriously considered putting them in over Oklahoma simply because I
believe you can’t go 8-11 in your conference. But Oklahoma’s wins just were
better. And because of how
competitive the Big 12 was, only the Iowa State loss looked bad.
SEC:
Locks: Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M
Bubble:
· Alabama – the Tide played their way into the tournament
based on their SEC tourney wins.
The win against Auburn gave them 7 Quadrant 1 wins.
· Mississippi State (OUT) – An RPI of 72 and only 2 Quadrant
1 wins took out the Bulldogs
Big 10:
Locks: Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio
State, Michigan
Bubble:
· Nebraska (Next 4 OUT) – This one was the one that hurt me
the most. I really wanted to find a
way to put the Cornhuskers in the tournament. But the only Quadrant 1 victory that
they had was at home against Michigan.
They also only had 2 Quadrant 2 victories – they needed that game
against Kansas.
· Penn State (OUT) – the Nittany
Lions have three awesome victories against Ohio State. But that gets countered by the three
losses in Quadrants 3 and 4 with an RPI of 78.
Pac 12:
Locks: Arizona
Bubble:
· UCLA (IN) – Sending Arizona to overtime was probably enough
to get them in comfortably.
They already had victories over Arizona, Kentucky and USC – being
considered the second best team in the Pac 12 should
be enough
· USC (IN) – I am a little more worried about USC. They have 10 Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2
wins, but only New Mexico State (based on winning the WAC) is actually in my
field. I think making the Pac 12
final and hanging around with Arizona should be enough. But they probably are uncomfortable
right now.
· Arizona State (FIRST 4 OUT) – Their great start gets ended
by going 8-11 in the Pac 12. They
might have beaten Kansas and Xavier, but they lost too many games to the middle
of the Pac 12. If those teams are
out, but beating the Sun Devils, it is hard to put ASU in.
· Utah, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Colorado (OUT) – I
looked at the teams above Arizona State in the standings. But Utah had the next best profile
– and victories over UCLA and Missouri can’t make up for a RPI at
60 and an early exit to Oregon in the Pac 12 conference tournament.
American:
Locks: Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
Atlantic 10:
Locks: Rhode Island, Davidson
Bubble:
· St. Bonaventure (LAST 4 IN) – The Bonnies had a RPI of 21
before losing to Davidson in the Atlantic 10 semi-finals. Considering Davidson then took out Rhode
Island, it is hard to criticize St. Bonaventure too much for that loss. The Bonnies went only 3-3 against
Quadrant 1 teams (and they weren’t the greatest in Rhode Island, Buffalo
and Syracuse). And while there are
not a lot of big names in Quadrant 2 – they went 6-1 against them. I think that their high RPI and their
victories against Syracuse and Maryland get them in. But this one will be tough.
West Coast:
Locks: Gonzaga
Bubble: St. Mary’s
· St. Mary’s (IN) – Going only 4-3 against the top 2
Quadrants doesn’t look good.
But that victory against Gonzaga is as good as any of the other bubble
teams. And they were ranked
nationally going into the week. I
have to put them in over some of the Big 12 teams with losing records.
Other high RPI mid-majors:
Locks: Nevada (Mt West)
Bubble:
· Middle Tennessee State (NEXT 4 OUT) – unlike St.
Mary’s, MTSUs big victories are Western Kentucky and Murray State. That is just not going to be enough.
The rest of the conferences will be one bid conferences based on
their automatic bids – so if you were a regular season champion not
mentioned above, you need to win your conference tourney to dance.
|
|
EAST |
SOUTH |
MIDWEST |
WEST |
|
1 |
Villanova (BIG EAST) |
Virginia (ACC) |
Kansas (BIG 12) |
Xavier |
|
16 |
UMBC (AMERICA EAST) / NC Central (MEAC) |
LIU Brooklyn (NEC) / Texas Southern (SWAC) |
Radford (BIG SOUTH) |
Cal St Fullerton (BIG WEST) |
|
8 |
Alabama |
Rhode Island |
Butler |
Creighton |
|
9 |
Virginia Tech |
Texas A&M |
UCLA |
NC State |
|
5 |
Ohio State |
Kentucky (SEC) |
Clemson |
Wichita State |
|
12 |
Murray State (OVC) |
Davidson (ATLANTIC 10) |
South Dakota State (SUMMIT) |
New Mexico State (WAC) |
|
4 |
West Virginia |
Texas Tech |
Auburn |
Gonzaga (WCC) |
|
13 |
Buffalo (MAC) |
UNC-Greensboro (SOUTHERN) |
Marshall (CONF USA) |
Charleston (COLONIAL) |
|
6 |
Houston |
Florida |
Miami FL |
TCU |
|
11 |
Florida State / Texas |
St. Bonaventure / Oklahoma |
Loyola IL (MVC) |
San Diego St (MT WEST) |
|
3 |
Michigan State |
Michigan (BIG 10) |
Tennessee |
Arizona (PAC 12) |
|
14 |
Bucknell
(PATRIOT) |
Lipscomb (ATLANTIC SUN) |
Stephen F Austin (SOUTHLAND) |
Montana (BIG SKY) |
|
7 |
Arkansas |
Providence |
Seton Hall |
Nevada |
|
10 |
Kansas State |
USC |
St. Mary’s |
Missouri |
|
2 |
Duke |
Cincinnati (AMERICAN) |
Purdue |
North Carolina |
|
15 |
Iona (MAAC) |
Georgia State (SUN BELT) |
Wright St (HORIZON) |
Penn (IVY) |
FIRST FOUR OUT – Marquette, Louisville,
Syracuse, Arizona State
NEXT FOUR OUT – Nebraska, Notre Dame,
Middle Tennessee State, Baylor
We will compare against the following 6 media bracketologists again.
I am baffled how the CBS, Yahoo, and Sporting News guys all predicted
Arizona State to make the tournament.
Of course, none of us got Syracuse correct – so if you are looking
for your team with a chip on its shoulder who then proves all the critics wrong
and that the committee for giving them a chance, the Orange are your team. I am pretty proud – I got my
first 11 seeds right. My 12th
seed – Arizona was my first miss, who swapped with Texas Tech. In fact, I got more teams seeded
correctly than any of the media bracketologists. Unfortunately for me, Yahoo’s and
the Sporting News’s bracketologists correctly
predicted 65 teams within 1 seed and also got Arizona State. Still, I beat Lunardi
and Palm – probably the two most well-known bracketologists. And I also beat the guys from Fox Sports
and Sports Illustrated. I
think that is the best that I have ever done on this insane project.
|
LUNATIC |
LUNARDI (ESPN) |
PALM (CBS) |
EVANS (YAHOO) |
FAGAN (SN) |
BELLER(SI) |
SCHWAB(FOX) |
|
|
Correct in the Field |
66 |
66 |
67 |
67 |
67 |
66 |
66 |
|
Correct Seed |
45 |
41 |
39 |
43 |
43 |
42 |
33 |
|
Correct +/- 1 Seed |
60 |
64 |
64 |
65 |
65 |
62 |
58 |
|
TOTAL |
348 |
344 |
343 |
352 |
352 |
344 |
322 |
The Lunatic – master delusional bracketologist