Bracketology 2021

I did so badly at this

Posted on March 16, 2021

I guess at least I did slightly better than last year. But this was a year when everyone was in sync with the Selection Committee. I don’t know how I was so messed up.

As far as the field, I got 66 of 68 right. Sadly, I flip-flopped my choice on UCLA – and it cost me. Still, Jerry Palm from CBS only got 66 of 68 – so I guess I shouldn’t be too down on myself.

My problem once again is with seeding. I guess trying to seed the teams like a maniac on Sunday afternoon is a poor choice. It showed. I tried to get ahead of things on Saturday and spent that evening seeding the 12-16 seeds. On those, I got 16 of the 22 teams seeded correctly, and everyone within 1 of their seed. I flipped Eastern Washington and Grand Canyon, flipped UNC-Greensboro and Colgate, and UC Santa Barbara with Liberty.

But then, on Sunday, I tried slowly picking the bubble and had such a hard time deciding between Mississippi, UCLA, Utah State, Wichita State, Syracuse, etc. that I literally seeded the locked teams (1-33) between 4-5 pm. I got none of the 6 seeds right (and LSU, Oklahoma were off by 2 and Virginia Tech were off by 4. I only got Connecticut right out of the 7 seeds (and Georgia Tech was off by 2). I got none of the 8 seeds right (and BYU and USC were both off by 2). And the only 9 seed I got correct was Missouri, getting both Clemson and Oregon off by 2). So, basically, as I rushed to get the last 16 teams seeded, I got only 2 of them correct and only 6 of them within 1. To add insult to injury, I picked Ole Miss over UCLA after all that time – so I spent all that time to make the wrong choice, and ran out of time to seed teams.

If I go by the Bracket Matrix scoring method, I only got 331 points (66 correctly in the field, 38 seeded correctly, 57 are placed within +/- 1 seed).

Looking on the Bracket Matrix site, there are very few brackets that did worse than me. I did almost catch the Sports Illustrated bracketologist – he got 332 points (66 / 37 / 60).

But the others crushed me:

§ Yahoo – 342 (67/39/63)

§ CBS – 343 (66/43/59)

§ Andy Katz (for ncaa.com) – 345 (67/42/60)

§ The Sporting News – 349 (67/43/62)

§ USA Today – 352 (67/43/65)

§ ESPN – 354 (67/45/63)

§ Fox Sports – 356 (67/45/65)

Another poor showing for the Lunatic. I prove my one point – it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to pick the field. Almost everyone got Louisville wrong (186 of the 203 bracketologists on the Bracket Matrix had them in the field). And the other team I missed (UCLA) was my first team out. But I need to figure out one of these years a better way to seed the teams – obviously can’t do it on Sunday like I normally do.

Final Bracket

Posted on March 14, 2021

This is assuming that Illinois beats Ohio State.

I really wanted to give Alabama the last 1 seed – they won a really difficult SEC conference. But just don’t think the committee will do that – there was too much of a gap between them and the Wolverines. I think Iowa and Ohio State are both 2 seeds – they might move up to 6th on my S-curve if Ohio State beats Illinois – maybe the committee switches them with Iowa in the bracket (likely wouldn’t put them in the region with Illinois or Michigan).

Houston destroyed Cincinnati to remove the last bid stealer – unfortunately, they end up as a 3 seed because they don’t have enough wins against other tournament teams to move past Ohio State or Texas.

Bold teams are your automatic bids – once against, this assumes Illinois beats Ohio State – now that this game has gone to overtime, it is definitely questionable. The game might not be finished by the time the Selection Show is supposed to start…. I assume CBS will just go to it once the game ends.

1	Gonzaga (1)	Baylor (2)	Illinois (3)	Michigan (4)
16	Appalachian St (67) / Texas Southern (68)	Norfolk State (65) / Mt St Marys (66)	Hartford (64)	Drexel (63)
8	Wisconsin (30)	BYU (32)	Florida (31)	USC (29)
9	Oregon (33)	Clemson (34)	North Carolina (36)	Missouri (35)
5	Villanova (17)	Purdue (18)	Creighton (19)	Colorado (20)
12	Liberty (50)	Winthrop (49)	Oregon St (48)	Georgetown (47)
4	Texas Tech (15)	Virginia (16)	West Virginia (13)	Florida St (14)
13	North Texas (51)	Ohio (52)	UC Santa Barbara (53)	Colgate (54)
6	Tennessee (24)	LSU (23)	Oklahoma (22)	Virginia Tech (21)
11	Michigan St (41)	VCU (42)	Syracuse (43) / Utah St (44)	Wichita St (45) / Mississippi (46)
3	Oklahoma St (10)	Houston (9)	Arkansas (11)	Kansas (12)
14	Grand Canyon (58)	Morehead St (57)	UNC-Greensboro (56)	Abilene Christian (55)
7	San Diego St (25)	Loyola IL (26)	Connecticut (27)	Georgia Tech (28)
10	Louisville (40)	St. Bonaventure (39)	Maryland (38)	Rutgers (37)
2	Ohio St (8)	Iowa (6)	Texas (7)	Alabama (5)
15	Eastern Washington (59)	Iona (60)	Oral Roberts (61)	Cleveland State (62)

Final Bubble Rank

Posted on March 14, 2021

I can’t believe I am doing this – but I think for me it comes down to rewarding a couple mid-majors and picking the team that looked the best of the three remaining large conference schools. And still struggled with all of this.

In the end, I decided to go with Utah State, Wichita State and Mississippi. I couldn’t let Duke in at 13-11. They had the most wins against teams in the field, but at 13-11, I just couldn’t do it. Mississippi at least had 3 more wins – including a close loss in the SEC Tournament against LSU. And UCLA only has a victory over Colorado of teams in the field. I only put UCLA over Duke in the First 4 list because at the end of the day, UCLA doesn’t have a Covid-19 positive test – they are in better shape from a protocol perspective.

Last 4 IN – Syracuse, Utah State, Wichita State, Mississippi

First 4 OUT – UCLA, Duke, Saint Louis, Colorado State

Next 4 OUT – Memphis, Drake, Boise State, North Carolina State

So BEHIND

Posted on March 14, 2021

Struggling with the last 4 spots – guess that makes sense. But I haven’t ranked the top part of the field.

Still – just in case I run late, we have the 22 automatic bids from the previous posts.

We have the following locks:

§ ACC (Florida St, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech)

§ American (Houston)

§ Big 10 (Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio St, Purdue, Wisconsin)

§ Big 12 (Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma St, Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma)

§ Big East (Villanova, Creighton, Connecticut)

§ Missouri Valley (Loyola-Chicago)

§ Mt West (San Diego State)

§ Pac 12 (Colorado, USC, Oregon)

§ SEC (Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee, Florida)

§ WCC (Gonzaga, BYU)

On my Bubble – realizing that St. Bonaventure just beat VCU and is a lock

I have the following 10 teams in:

Clemson, Missouri, North Carolina, Rutgers, Maryland, Saint Bonaventure, Louisville, Michigan State, VCU, Syracuse

I have eliminated the following 8 teams (NC State, SMU, Davidson, Seton Hall, Saint Johns, Xavier, Stanford, Mississippi State).

That leaves 3 spots for the final 10 teams in consideration (not in order):

§ Wichita State

§ Utah State

§ Mississippi

§ Saint Louis

§ Duke

§ Drake

§ UCLA

§ Colorado State

§ Memphis

§ Boise State

I don’t like my decisions at this point – not happy that I am actually considering Duke. Not happy that some of the small conference champions are still on this list. Oh well – we shall see. Hoping to spend 30 minutes to rank these 10 and then ranking the Top 25 – which should be easier. Teams don’t tend to deviate that much from their AP Poll ranking – they fall a couple spots or rise a couple spots based on how they do in their conference tournament.

Should get everything in time, but it is tighter than I want.

Seeding the Automatic Bids

Posted on March 14, 2021

This is actually pretty tough – no one has played anyone similar. There were a couple places where you got lucky and the same two teams played a same opponent – but in many cases, you are trying to guess if one teams 10 wins against NET 200+ teams is better than another teams 8. A little rough. And have lots to do to get a bracket done.

These are all the teams that would not have got an at-large bid or bubble consideration – but earned their way into the tournament by winning their conference championship.

There are two exceptions here at the moment. Cincinnati is playing for the American title at 3:15 pm EST and Loyola MD (at 6-10) is playing for the Patriot title right now. If Loyola MD beats Patriot NET anomaly Colgate, they would be the only team with a losing record that makes it – so that probably also gets them the last spot in the field.

While there is a chance I might reassess these at the end, I suspect this is where things stay.

Here we go……

§ Georgetown (BIG EAST)

§ Oregon State (PAC 12)

§ Cincinnati (AMERICAN – if they beat Houston)

§ Winthrop (BIG SOUTH)

§ Liberty (ATLANTIC SUN)

§ North Texas (CONF USA)

§ Ohio (MAC)

§ UC Santa Barbara (BIG WEST)

§ Colgate (PATRIOT – if they beat Loyola MD)

§ Abilene Christian (SOUTHLAND)

§ UNC-Greensboro (SOUTHERN)

§ Morehead State (OVC)

§ Grand Canyon (WAC)

§ Eastern Washington (BIG SKY)

§ Iona (MAAC)

§ Oral Roberts (SUMMIT)

§ Cleveland State (HORIZON)

§ Drexel (COLONIAL)

§ Hartford (AMERICA EAST)

§ Norfolk State (MEAC)

§ Mt St Mary’s (NEC)

§ Appalachian State (SUN BELT)

§ Texas Southern (SWAC)

§ Loyola MD (PATRIOT – if they beat Colgate)

Tracking the automatic bids

Posted on March 12, 2021

31 conference tournament champions will take the decision out of the Selection Committee’s hands. If I ever get my act together and start to create my own S-curve, I might even mark it here – but for right now, we will use the NET score after Wednesday’s games.

I will try to update as I notice things – but quite honestly, I am not sure I have the time to do this. For now, I think having the possible teams listed with their conference standing seed in front and their NET ranking in parentheses will be helpful for me in creating my final bracket – but at some point, I might have to sacrifice updating this page for the ability to have my final bracket.

CONFERENCE	CHAMPION
WCC	#1 Gonzaga (1)
Big 12	#3 Texas (24)
Big 10	Sun 3:30 pm – #2 Illinois (4) vs #5 Ohio State (9)
SEC	Sun 1 pm – #1 Alabama (7) vs #3 LSU (28)
ACC	#4 Georgia Tech (37)
Big East	#9 Georgetown (85)
Pac 12	Sat 10:30 pm – #3 Colorado (11) vs #5 Oregon State (106)
American	Sun 3:15 pm – #2 Houston (6) vs #5 Cincinnati (125)
Missouri Valley	#1 Loyola-Chicago (10)
Mountain West	#1 San Diego State (21)
Atlantic 10	Sun 1 pm – #1 St. Bonaventure (27) vs #2 VCU (35)
Patriot	Sun Noon – #2 Colgate (8) vs #9 Loyola – Maryland (153)
Big South	#1 Winthrop (54)
Big West	Sat 11:30 pm – #1 UC Santa Barbara (56) vs #2 UC Irvine (105)
MAC	#5 Ohio (110)
Conference USA	#3W North Texas (71)
Atlantic Sun	#1 Liberty (82)
Southland	Sat 9:30 pm – #1 Nicholls (179) vs #2 Abilene Christian (83)
Southern	#1 UNC-Greensboro (84)
OVC	#2 Morehead State (122)
Big Sky	#2 Eastern Washington (121)
America East	#4 Hartford (168)
Horizon	#1 Cleveland State (163)
Summit	#4 Oral Roberts (159)
Sun Belt	#4E Appalachian State (209)
NEC	#4 Mt St Mary’s (162)
Colonial	#6 Drexel (137)
WAC	Sat 10 pm – #1 Grand Canyon (136) vs #3 New Mexico State (183)
MAAC	#9 Iona (144)
MEAC	N2 Norfolk State (199)
SWAC	#3 Texas Southern (229)

Do conference standings matter?

Posted on March 11, 2021

In my attempt to be a better bracketologist, I have tried to learn more about how the bubble is selected, and how the teams get seeded. The seeding piece will likely be another post – but as a little teaser. Do you know what the highest place on the S-curve was for the teams that were ranked in the AP and Coaches Top 25. Wofford – the #20 team in both polls – was the highest at 28th of the S-curve (or a 7 seed). Not sure it always goes that tight – but we can probably guess within a seed right now the top 7 seeds if they follow that trend.

But for tonight’s analysis, I wanted to know how much the actual conference standings matter. Lets look at the multi-bid conferences. For the record, my conference standings include the conference tournament results (which I am OK with – they are games against conference teams – it also helps account for a team that does win in the conference tournament…..)

In the ACC, Duke jumped over Virginia and UNC at the top – but Duke also won the conference tournament. The rest of the standings were Florida St (14), Virginia Tech (16), Louisville (25), Syracuse (30), NC State, Clemson – that is actually really interesting for multiple reasons. The bubble teams all were in the order of their standings – but NC State and Clemson had a better NET ranking than Syracuse. So, at least for the ACC, Syracuse’s conference record gave them the nod over the Wolfpack and Tigers.

The American conference was in order – once again with the last team making it (Temple) having a worst NET score than Memphis. Conf standings won again.

Big 10 has Purdue and Michigan switch (not surprising since Michigan was ranked higher in the polls). But the rest held the order. This includes Minnesota and Ohio State jumping Indiana and Nebraska in the NET rankings.

Big 12 is the first conference that saw the bubble matter. But there is a reason. Texas and TCU had a better conference record than Oklahoma (the last team from the Big 12). Texas was 16-16. You don’t get in with that many losses. TCU was 20-13, but lost both their games to Oklahoma, and lost badly in the first round to 12-14 Kansas State.

The Big East was weird – Saint Johns jumped both Xavier and Creighton. But to be honest, Saint Johns really surprised a lot of us that they made it. Not sure I can explain it – they did have more Quad 1 wins (that might be a good break for Michigan State this year – or maybe Duke……)

The Pac 12 and SEC bubbles also went in order of conference record.

It wasn’t perfect, but it was extremely predictive – and actually a better ranking than the NET….

So, lets look at the conferences that might have multiple bids (this is through Tuesday’s games – so it is not accounting for things like Duke beating Louisville…..) We will include their NET ranking in parentheses. I will keep my locks from the main blog and add anyone who jumps a lock. Will also remove teams that don’t have a winning record but are in the top 80.

ACC:

§ Locks – Virginia (12), Florida St (22), Virginia Tech (42)

§ Bubble – Georgia Tech (37), Clemson (36), North Carolina (39), Louisville (52), Syracuse (49), NC State (68), Duke (51)

American (OK – this will be an exception – I can’t lock Wichita St, but they are the regular season champion):

§ Locks – Houston (6)

§ Bubble – Wichita State (64), Memphis (53), SMU (56)

Atlantic 10 (Richmond is in the NET Top 80, but falls behind UMass, George Mason and Dayton in the standings – that is going to knock them out):

§ Bubble – St. Bonaventure (27), VCU (35), Davidson (62), St Louis (45)

Big 10:

§ Locks – Michigan (3), Illinois (4), Iowa (5), Purdue (19), Ohio State (9), Wisconsin (26)

§ Bubble – Rutgers (38), Maryland (34), Michigan St (65)

Big 12:

§ Locks – Baylor (2), Kansas (14), West Virginia (23), Texas (24), Oklahoma St (30), Texas Tech (17), Oklahoma (33)

Big East:

§ Locks – Villanova (11), Creighton (25)

§ Bubble – Connecticut (31), Seton Hall (59), St Johns (67), Providence (77), Xavier (58)

Missouri Valley:

§ IN – Loyola-Chicago (10)

§ Bubble – Drake (47)

Mountain West:

§ Locks – San Diego St (21)

§ Bubble – Utah St (48), Colorado St (50), Boise St (44)

Pac 12 (Note – 72 Stanford falls behind 106 Oregon St in the standings):

§ Locks – Oregon (32), USC (15), Colorado (13)

§ Bubble – UCLA (41)

SEC (Note – 78 Mississippi St is behind 9-15 Kentucky – likely seals their fate):

§ Locks – Alabama (7), Arkansas (16), LSU (28), Tennessee (18), Florida (29)

§ Bubble – Mississippi (54), Missouri (43)

WCC (Note – 66 St. Mary’s falls behind 4 teams in the standings):

§ IN – Gonzaga (1)

§ Locks – BYU (20)

Lets see if that narrowed my math any……

§ Single-bid conference champions (20)

§ Assuming the conference champ comes from the locks (31)

§ Atlantic 10 champion (1)

§ Still 16 spots available for the bubble

§ 29 teams on the bubble

Looks still pretty similar – I have kind of reduced the bubble from 40 to 29. That being said, I suspect the several of the teams still on the list are done. We will keep trying to rank them as the week goes. But if you are watching the conference tournament games – this gives you a great viewing guide of which teams need to win, which ones are playing for seeding and which are desperately trying to win the title to keep playing.

Welcome to the Crazed Lunatic’s Bracketology Page

Posted on March 4, 2021

I had lots of issues when I updated my website’s hosting services. But one thing that I noticed that was interesting was some of the updates to the Word Press application. So, I thought why not try to see if I can move my Bracketology commentary to a new page on my website. At some point, I might try to go back and move some of my historic pages into the blog as well – but for now, since there is only 10 days to Selection Sunday, I am going to focus on the 2021 season. Lets see if this works well or not!