The Lunatic’s Insane Handicapping:

The Lunatic has been stomped so badly the last few years.  He has felt it necessary to show that he has some talent in picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines.   Because if I can’t beat half the field and can’t pick the field close to the level that the experts do, it is clearly obvious that I can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers. 

 

Lunatic Disclosure #1: This is for recreational purposes only.  The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!

Lunatic Disclosure #2: In case you haven’t read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you.  I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.

 

To give myself a chance (since obviously, some of the closer games, I would just normally leave alone – however, what fun would it be if I didn’t pick every game), I tier my imaginary bets into 10 (no clue), 20 (some confidence), 30 (closest to a lock).  Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit my no clues……    Also, since there are so many first round games, I will probably be brief.

 

If you are wondering, I actually did horribly last year!!!  Which means it is obvious that I should try again….

 

Tues, March 13th – Well – I know nothing about either of the 16 seeds, and I am biased in the other game.  Lets get started with this craziness again!!!

Wed, March 14th – Wow – up after one day.  This would be the point where you are supposed to leave the casino while you are ahead.  We know I can’t do that – fortunately, it is an imaginary casino…..

Thurs, March 21st  – Well – that is more like it.   Might be a rough tournament…..

Fri, March 22nd  – Have to love going 20-12 on Thursday and only winning 64 thanks to all the locks I missed.  I should know to lock nothing…..

Sat, March 23th – Wow – amazingly good first/second round.  Not sure can keep up this pace – but it would be awesome if this kept up.

Sun, March 24th – Maybe the best day ever since I started doing this.  Can’t believe I am doing this well!!!!!   I mean – of course, I would go 13-3 on Saturday!

Mon, March 25th – Well – that is more like it.  Knew a day would come where I couldn’t get a game right – thankfully, I got the totals right to keep things on a winning note.

Fri, March 29th – A little bit of a fall -  but staying close enough to even that it isn’t hurting the fantastic first weekend of games. 

Fri, April 5th – In order to make it interesting, I am going to remove the $10 option.  It is either not as confident is $20 or confident is $30.   I could do $20 across the board, lose all of them and come out ahead – there is no fun in that.  No one goes to the mythical casino to come back a small winner – swing for the fences…  And heck, if I lose all of them, I will just claim that if I had stuck to my standards, I would be fine.

 

DAY

Vs. SPREAD

Vs OVER/UNDER

Play In Games

1-3             -52

3-1            16

Round 2 - Thursday

11-5             79

9-7            -15

Round 2 - Friday

10-6             45

7-8-1         -3

Round 3 - Saturday

7-1               98

6-2            60

Round 3 - Saturday

1-7             - 73

6-2            78

Sweet 16 - Thursday

1-3             - 22

2-2            - 4

Sweet 16 – Friday

2-2              7

1-3            - 42

Elite 8

0-4            -70

3-1              25

Final Four

 

 

OVERALL       (+ 127)

26-30          12

31-24-1         115

 

 

 

 

FINAL 4 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

6:09 pm     Louisville (-10) vs Wichita State                        O/U: 133

So, lets start with the obvious.  Louisville should win this game.  They are considered the best team left in the tournament.  They are coming off beating Duke by 22 points.  They are playing to win a final four for their injured teammate.  They are destined to win – right!    But then there are the possibilities…  First of all, Wichita State is not a slouch – they beat a #1 seed and a #2 seed to get here (and while some might argue Gonzaga shouldn’t have been a #1 – they were still pretty good, and Ohio State was the conference tournament champions of a conference that boasted 4 of the final 16 teams).  And ten points is a tremendous amount to cover.  Yes, the Cardinals did it against the Blue Devils.  But they didn’t against Oregon.  And while the Cardinals played with incredibly without Ware – their backup guard – it only takes one of their starters to get in foul trouble for this game to take a totally different turn.  Louisville could go cold shooting for 4-5 minutes like almost every team does once in a while.  I think there are enough plausible scenarios that make taking Wichita State and the 10 points the play here.    As for the totals, I think these teams are going to put up some points.  The last 3 totals for Louisville have been 148, 146 and 138.   The last 3 for the Shockers were 136, 130, and 146.  The over seems like the right play here.

Lunatic picks:     Wichita State (30)               Over (30)

Result:     Louisville 72, Wichita State 68                Line (1-0         27)       Total (1-0        27)

 

8:49 pm     Michigan (-1.5) vs Syracuse                               O/U: 131

This game is going to come down to one thing – and one thing only.  Can the best player on the court beat the most suffocating zone defense ever created.  Trey Burke is amazing.  I still am awestruck of how he willed his team to win that game over Kansas.  The Wolverines score points quickly in many different ways.  And I don’t think that there is a three-point shot that the Wolverines don’t like.  They have plenty of people on the team who would be happy to put up a long jumper.  This game to me feels like a coin flip.  If Michigan shoots well from the outside, they win this game – and they have been shooting lights out this tournament.  However, Syracuse made a very good shooting team from Indiana not hit the broad side of a barn.  And then there is the fact that Marquette couldn’t even put up 40 points.   In the case of a coin flip, I think you have to take the side of the team who has the best star player – the one who will make that clutch play more often than not.  Nothing against any of the Syracuse players, but that player is Trey Burke.  I will take my coin flip on Michigan.   As for the totals, I look at Syracuse’s four games and notice a game that didn’t break 100, two games that didn’t break 120, with the outlier being 126.   Two of the four Wolverine tourney games didn’t break 130 either.   After watching Syracuse and Marquette combine for 94 points, 131 seems like a tremendous amount – could happen if Michigan is hitting from outside, but that would mean that Syracuse is scoring too….  I see more options for a lower scoring game.

Lunatic picks:     Michigan (20)                                  Under  (30)

Result:     Michigan 61, Syracuse 56                        Line (2-0         45)       Total (2-0        54)

 

 

ELITE 8 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

4:30 pm     Marquette vs Syracuse (-4)                    O/U: 128

If you are wondering how dominating the Syracuse victory was – it is rare that a lower seeded team to be an entire 4 point underdog to a team the tournament committee felt was better.  Add to it the fact that in the regular season, the Golden Eagles won 74-71 against the Orange and that makes it more unbelievable.   I was really impressed with both Big East schools on Thursday – so I don’t know who to pick.   Normally I would say that whenever you get the chance to take the favorite by seed and also get 4 points, you should take it.  But Syracuse scares me enough to where I would stay away from this game.  I will take the team that won in the regular season – but not with any confidence.

Lunatic picks:     Marquette (10)                     Over (20)

Result:     Syracuse 55, Marquette 39                      Line (0-1   -10)           Total (0-1  -20)

 

7:05 pm     Ohio State (-4.5) vs Wichita State                      O/U: 130

Wichita State has been a fantastic story.  But one advantage that teams like the Shockers have is that they are playing with no pressure – no one expected the Shockers to beat #1 seed Gonzaga, and so they can play loose with nothing to lose.  A trip to the Final 4 has a way of being an equalizer to that.  There should be nothing different for Wichita State against #2 seed Ohio State, and yet the reality of what is at stake tends to put just as much pressure on the underdog as there is on the favorite.   I think Ohio State is the better team.  And the Buckeyes seem to be finding ways to win – they have had back to back games to demonstrate they can deal with the pressure – I expect they will be the ones making their way to the Final Four.  The only reason stopping me from locking the 4.5 points is the fact that OSU seems to like to win in dramatic fashion….

Lunatic picks:     Ohio State (20)                    Over (30)

Result:     Wichita State 70, Ohio State 66   Line (0-2   -30)        Total (1-1   7)

 

ELITE 8 GAMES

Sunday’s games

 

2:20 pm     Florida (-2.5) vs Michigan                      O/U: 131

I had almost taken Florida to win this region.  I looked at my picks and thought to myself – I have more 2 and 3 seeds to make the Final Four than 1 seeds, I am going to change the Florida pick to Kansas.  In retrospect, kind of wish I had that back.  Florida has manhandled all 3 of their opponents in the tournament – despite letting Cinderella FGCU get out to an early lead.  On one side, I think I should go with Trey Burke – he seems unstoppable.  On the other side, I remember that Michigan doesn’t play great defense – while the Gators have been shutting teams down.  I am going to go with my initial gut pick – and since 2.5 points is basically asking who you think you will win – I am going strong with the Gators.

Lunatic picks:     Florida (30)              Over (10)

Result:      Michigan 79, Florida 59              Line (0-3   -60)           Total (2-1   16)

 

5:05 pm     Louisville (-3.5) vs Duke             O/U: 137

Something has to break here.  Louisville has demonstrated why they were considered the #1 overall seed in the tournament with dominating performances against NC A&T, Colorado State and Oregon.  Duke has seemed to slowly stretch out leads to win by double digits against all three of their opponents – Albany, Creighton, and Michigan State.  Someone’s streak of dominance will obviously have to end.  I am going to go back to the regular season.  These teams played in the Battle for Atlantis – and even though Louisville was missing Gorgui Dieng, Duke did what they have been doing – slowly extended the lead to double digits, and then held on (in this case for a 76-71 victory).  Knowing Duke won by 5 – and trailed for only 1 minute and 11 seconds in that game, I will take the points.  Will not go strong in this game because we are still talking about picking against the team that is the #1 overall seed in the tournament.

Lunatic picks:     Duke (10)                            Over (10)

Result:       Louisville 85, Duke 63                            Line (0-4     -70)         Total (3-1  25)

 

 

SWEET 16 GAMES

Thursday’s games

 

7:15 pm     Miami FL (-5) vs Marquette                  O/U: 127

Miami is a defensive team who in their last game was taken to the last minute before hitting a couple FTs to wrap up the victory.  Marquette on the other hand played both of their tourney games to the last second.  I don’t know who wins this game, but would not be surprised that the game is won by a buzzer beater in a defensive battle.

Lunatic picks:      Marquette (20)                    Under (20)

Result:    Marquette 71,  Miami FL 61                    Line (1-0     18)           Total (0-1    -20)

 

7:47 pm     Ohio State (-3.5) vs Arizona                   O/U: 134

I am struggling with this pick.  I think that Ohio State is the better team.  This has been the Big 10’s year.  However, it is a significant disadvantage for them to travel to Los Angeles and play a top Pac-12 team.  At the end, I am going to go with the team I think is more talented – but I have less confidence in that pick.

Lunatic picks:       Ohio State (10)                  Over (30)

Result:     Ohio State 73, Arizona 70                        Line (1-1     8) Total (1-1    7)

 

9:45 pm     Indiana (-5.5) vs Syracuse                      O/U: 135.5

Again struggling with this pick.  Indiana is my pick to win it all.  Everything tells me that they have good enough shooters that they can beat the Syracuse zone.  Yet, Syracuse is a good team and giving them 5.5 points is a lot.  I am going to begrudgingly take the Hoosiers – why back down now from them.  Figure that Syracuse will try to slow the tempo down and at least keep the scoring to a low level like Temple did.

Lunatic picks:        Indiana (10)                      Under (10)

Result:      Syracuse 61, Indiana 50                          Line (1-2    -2)            Total (2-1 16)

 

10:17 pm    Wichita State (-4) vs La Salle    O/U: 135.5

And here they still are, the La Salle Explorers….  They are taunting me – laughing at me.  You think we are the team that shouldn’t make it – well, we will show you.  When I am wrong, I admit that I am wrong.  The La Salle Explorers deserve to be here and have made a great run in this tournament.  This reminds me of teams like Butler and VCU where you would be silly to bet against them.  I learn from my mistakes – nothing against Wichita State, but I don’t believe they can shoot lights out again like they did against Gonzaga.  Maybe that is just because I know I have to believe in La Salle.  Respect the streak.

Lunatic picks:       La Salle (20)                      Over (20)  

Result:     Wichita St 72, La Salle 58                        Line (1-3    -22)          Total (2-2 -4)

 

SWEET 16 GAMES

Friday’s games

 

7:15 pm     Louisville (-10) vs Oregon                      O/U: 129.5

I know that Louisville is destroying teams right now.  I know that Oregon is turnover prone.  But I still think Oregon is a lot better than everyone thought they are.  They are not a normal 12 seed that has made their way to play the 1 seed and get blown out.  They are the Pac 12 champions – and that means more than people realize.  Don’t know that the Ducks have enough to pull the upset, but if I get 10 points as well, I am going to fly with the Ducks.

Lunatic picks:       Oregon (20)                       Under (10)

Result:    Louisville 77, Oregon 69               Line (1-0     18)           Total (0-1  -10) 

 

7:37 pm     Kansas (-2) vs Michigan             O/U: 136

Its interesting how much matchups are important.  While I know Trey Burke is going to win the PG battle, I think Jeff Withey is going to win the battle in the paint.  And that rebounding and defensive presence in the paint is going to be what turns this game to the Jayhawks.  What I will say is that Kansas / UNC scored 128 points.  If Kansas slowed UNC to under 136, what makes you believe that Michigan is going to take the pace of the game to score that high.

Lunatic picks:        Kansas (10)                       Under (30)

Result:     Michigan 87, Kansas 85               Line (1-1    8)              Total (0-2   -40)

 

9:45 pm     Duke (-2) vs Michigan State                  O/U: 134.5

Tough game to call.  I am going with my gut feel that Michigan State is playing with passion.  An interesting side piece of info on Tom Izzo.  We all know how amazing a coach that Coach K is.  No one is saying Izzo isn’t great as well.  Since Izzo’s first recruiting class in 1996, there has been no Spartan player who has stayed a full four years that has not been to a Final Four game.  That includes this year’s seniors who already saw a Final Four as freshmen.  Coach K is amazing, and Duke is certainly talented enough to win this game – but I never bet against Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans in March.

Lunatic picks:        Michigan State (10)          Under (20)   

Result:     Duke 71, Michigan State 61                    Line (1-2     -2)           Total (1-2    -22)

 

9:57 pm    Florida (-13) vs Florida Gulf Coast       O/U: 134

I think I have been poisoned by my desire to see the Eagles continue to soar.  Before last week, if I saw this game, I would have jumped on the Florida Gators.  History says that when Cinderella gets this far, the slipper falls off.  And yet, I can’t get myself to give up 13 points.  Interesting fact: in this tournament, 8 of the 16 remaining teams have been able to win both their games by double digits.  Two of them are playing in this game.  I can’t in good conscious think that a team that just beat Georgetown and San Diego State by double digits is going to get blown out by anyone – even a team as good as the Gators.

Lunatic picks:     Florida Gulf Coast (10)                   Over (20)

Result:     Florida 62, Florida Gulf Coast 50          Line (2-2     7) Total (1-3   -42)

 

 

 

ROUND 3 GAMES

Sunday’s games

 

12:15 pm     Ohio State (-7) vs Iowa State                           O/U: 142

I think Ohio State just has too much fire-power for the Cyclones.  After watching what Michigan and Michigan State did on Saturday, I am going to stick with the top Big 10 teams as long as it makes sense.  Ohio State showed against Iona that they don’t mind getting into a high-scoring affair, so I am guessing a lot of points will be scored.

Lunatic picks:     Ohio State (20)                    Over (30)

Result:     Ohio State 78, Iowa State 75                   Line (0-1    -20)          Total (1-0     27)

 

2:45 pm      Indiana (-11.5) vs Temple                                 O/U: 148

Wow – 11.5 points seems a lot to give against Temple.  However, Indiana has a tendency to blow teams out.  I would normally stay away from this game – but if I have to chose, I am going to say expect a lot of points with Indiana running away.

Lunatic picks:      Indiana (10)                        Over (10)

Result:     Indiana 58, Temple 52                        Line (0-2     -30)  Total (1-1     17)

 

 

5:15 pm     Kansas (-6) vs North Carolina                          O/U: 143

I think I am going a little insane.  Because I am starting to believe that North Carolina can beat Kansas.  Kansas really didn’t look that good against Western Kentucky.   Most of the Big 12 has been a no show in the tournament.  North Carolina is used to going up against tough competition from their ACC play.  I don’t know that the Tar Heels have it in them to pull the upset – but if I also get 6 points, I am going to take UNC. 

Lunatic picks:        North Carolina (10)           Under (10)

Result:     Kansas 70, North Carolina 58             Line (0-3    -40)  Total (2-1    26)

 

 

6:10 pm     Florida (-8.5) vs Minnesota                                O/U: 122.5

Minnesota appears to only play poorly against teams that they should crush.  None of those exist on their schedule any more – everyone is good.  My belief is that Minnesota is going to give Florida more than they are expecting.  As for the total, someone just needs to get to 70 to carry this – both Florida and Minnesota did that in their last game. 

Lunatic picks:      Minnesota (10)                   Over (30)

Result:     Florida 78, Minnesota 64            Line (0-4     -50)          Total (3-1    53)         

 

 

7:10 pm     San Diego State (-7.5) vs Florida Gulf Coast   O/U: 131

I am going to use the same logic as I did with the Arizona / Harvard game.  Florida Gulf Coast is a fantastic story – and they were able to show that they can beat two excellent defensive teams.  But at the end of the day, San Diego State crushed Oklahoma – and theoretically, Oklahoma is better than FGCU.  And FGCU no longer has the element of surprise.  Typically, these Cinderella stories end at this point.

Lunatic picks:       San Diego State (20)          Under (20)

Result:     Florida Gulf Coast 81, San Diego State 71        Line (0-5   -70)   Total (3-2    33)

 

 

7:45 pm     Ole Miss (-3) vs. La Salle                                    O/U: 144

I have no clue what to do with this game.  Something tells me to expect a shootout – something more like the game LaSalle played against Boise State.  As far as who to pick to win, I am conflicted.  I know that La Salle has the feel of the scorned team that is proving they belong in the tournament.  They have an ability to make surprising runs.  Then again, I also know that regular season and conference tournament champions tend to rise to the top – and unlike La Salle – Ole Miss did win their conference tournament.   And Ole Miss has the star player in Marshall Henderson who can at a moment’s notice, just take over the game.

Lunatic picks:     Ole Miss (10)                       Over (20)

Result:      LaSalle 76, Ole Miss 74              Line (0-6    -80)            Total (4-2    51)

 

 

8:40 pm     Miami FL (-6.5) vs. Illinois                                 O/U: 128.5

Illinois kind of lives and dies by the three point shot.  Something tells me that against an outstanding defensive team like Miami, that type of team is in for a long day.  I am going to go with the Hurricanes in a low scoring game.  

Lunatic picks:   Miami FL (20)           Under (20)

Result:      Miami FL 63, Illinois 59             Line (0-7     -100)          Total (5-2     69)

 

 

9:40 pm     Duke (-5) vs. Creighton                                      O/U: 145

Creighton had a really good game against Cincinnati.  But I think that Duke has the players to keep McDermott in check.  I expect Duke to control the tempo this game and shut down Creighton’s star player – allowing to advance to the Sweet 16.

Lunatic picks:    Duke (20)                 Under (10)

Result:      Duke 66, Creighton 50                Line (1-7    -73)            Total (6-2     78)

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROUND 3 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

12:15 pm     Michigan (-3.5) vs VCU                                   O/U: 142.5

When this tournament started, I felt that this was a horrible draw for VCU.  VCU’s success is based on their amazing defense forcing tons of turnovers.  Michigan has potentially the best guard in the entire country in Trey Burke as their lead ball-handler (and their other guards are not bad either).  However, after watching the games on Thursday, I am really unsure of how this game is going to go.  My logic says that Michigan’s guards handle the press and win the game.  My heart says VCU is going to continue their success in March and make it to the Sweet 16.  When in doubt, go with your heart – you will at least be happy with what you are rooting for.

Lunatic picks:    VCU (10)                 Under (10)

Result:    Michigan 78, VCU 53                                           Line (0-1    -10)          Total (1-0    9)

 

2:45 pm     Michigan State (-6) vs Memphis                        O/U: 130.5

Memphis is a crazy athletic team.  I don’t think I have ever seen any team block as many shots as the Tigers did against St. Mary’s on Thursday.   However, there are certain teams that you know you just don’t pick against in March.  Tom Izzo and his Spartans are one of those teams.   These Spartans are extremely physical and used to playing athletic teams.  In the end, I think Memphis will not be able to shoot well enough to stop Michigan State.

Lunatic picks:   Michigan State (30)               Under (20)

Result:     Michigan State 70, Memphis 48                           Line (1-1     17)            Total (2-0      27)

 

5:15 pm     Louisville (-10.5) vs Colorado State                  O/U: 134.5

Colorado State really impressed me against Missouri.  But Louisville is a much better team that Missouri.  I am going to continue with my belief that Louisville will simply be too much for the Rams to handle.   Typically would stay away from the spread on this game since while I think Louisville wins, 10.5 points is a lot against Colorado State – just more comfortable with the better team.

Lunatic picks:    Louisville (10)          Over (20)

Result:     Louisville 82, Colorado State 56                         Line (2-1     26)           Total (3-0     45)

 

6:10 pm     Arizona (-10) vs Harvard                                   O/U: 132.5

Harvard is a great story – and it is really great that they have gotten this far.  Would love to see that success continue, but I don’t expect Arizona to allow that to happen.  No offense to the Crimson, but I felt that Belmont was better – and Arizona blitzed them by 17.  I don’t expect Harvard to sneak up on anyone this time.

Lunatic picks:    Arizona (20) Under (20)

Result:     Arizona 74, Harvard 51                                       Line (3-1     44)           Total (4-0    63)

 

7:10 pm     St. Louis (-3.5) vs Oregon                                  O/U: 123.5

This is a really tough game for me to pick.  I was thoroughly impressed with St. Louis before the tournament – then the Atlantic 10 has shown they are better than advertised this year.  On the other hand, I have said that Oregon appears to be a team scorned by the committee and looking to prove everyone they deserved better.  My belief before the games started that Oregon was going to upset both Oklahoma St and St. Louis to get to the Sweet 16 – I am not going to back down now.

Lunatic picks:    Oregon (10)              Under (20)

Result:      Oregon 74, St. Louis 57                                      Line (4-1    53)            Total (4-1     43)

 

7:45 pm     Marquette (-2.5) vs Butler                                 O/U: 126

Just a warning to Marquette – if they let Butler get a decent lead late like they did against Davidson, the Bulldogs are not going to let Marquette come back.  These two played earlier this year – with Butler winning 72-71.  And as I have mentioned before – I have learned never to bet against Butler in March.

Lunatic picks:    Butler (20)                Over (10)

Result:     Marquette 74, Butler 72                                      Line (5-1    71)            Total (5-1    52)

 

8:40 pm     Gonzaga (-6.5) vs Wichita State                        O/U: 129

Gonzaga wasn’t able to beat #16 seed Southern by 6.5 points – how can I have any confidence that they can beat Wichita State by that many.  I know the Zags played much better than they did on Thursday throughout the regular season, but I saw two different teams.  I saw a team in Gonzaga that looked like they figured they would walk over their opponents, and I saw a team in Wichita State who looked determined to walk over their opponent.  I am going against Gonzaga until they show they can handle the pressure of being a #1 seed.

Lunatic picks:   Wichita State (20)                 Over (20)

Result:     Wichita State 76, Gonzaga 70                             Line (6-1    89)            Total (6-1    70)

 

9:40 pm     Syracuse (-7.5) vs California                             O/U: 124.5

This is another bracketing mistake.  This is a basic home game for California – which is pretty unfair since Syracuse is supposed to be a protected seed.  But at this point, you just have to play who you draw.  Syracuse is coming off a dominating performance – but they will find that Cal’s guard will provide a much tougher opponent.  Normally, I would go with the Orange – however, with the fact that this is a basic home game, I have to give the edge to the Bears.

Lunatic picks:    California (10)          Under (10)

Result:  Syracuse 66, California 60                                     Line (7-1    98)            Total (6-2     60)

 

 

 

 

 

 

ROUND 2 GAMES

Thursday’s games

 

12:15 pm – Michigan State (-10.5) vs Valparaiso           O/U: 126

Valparaiso played two top 50 RPI teams this year, and lost by double digits to both.   And I think Michigan State is better than both New Mexico and St. Louis – so I see no reason the Spartans won’t handle business here.  I am going to take a chance and go big here.  Not as confident on the spread – imagine the Crusaders will struggle to score on MSU’s defense so I will go low.

Lunatic picks:  Michigan State (30)         Under  (10)

Result:     Michigan State 65, Valparaiso 54                       Line (1-0   27)             Total (1-0        9)

 

 

12:40 pm – Butler (-4) vs Bucknell                                      O/U: 121.5

Struggling with this one.  Bucknell has only lost one game this year by 4 or more points.  But the one thing I have learned over the years is never bet against Butler.  Both teams tend to play games that score more than 121.5 points – so I will take my chances on the over/under.

Lunatic picks:   Butler (10)                  Over (30)

Result:     Butler 68, Bucknell 56                                         Line (2-0    36)            Total (2-0   36)

 

 

1:40 pm – Pittsburgh (-4.5) vs Wichita State                      O/U: 118.5

Believe it or not, Pittsburgh has one of the best Adjusted Scoring Margin’s in the NCAAs – tough to believe for an 8 seed.  I am not sold on the Missouri Valley teams this year – will take Pitt.  Line seems a little low as well.

Lunatic picks:  Pittsburgh (20)       Over  (20)

Result:     Wichita State 73, Pittsburgh 55              Line (2-1    16)            Total (3-0   54)

 

 

2:10 pm – St. Louis (-9.5) vs. New Mexico State     O/U: 122

St. Louis has been a fantastic story this year.   And their New Year’s Eve game against New Mexico might be the best comparison point.  St Louis beat New Mexico by 14 points.   NM St played the Lobos twice – losing both times by 5 and 15 points.  Going to take the Billikens

Lunatic picks:   St. Louis (20)                Over (10)

Result:     St. Louis 64, New Mexico State 44          Line (3-1    34)            Total (3-1    44)

 

 

2:45 pm – Memphis vs. St. Mary’s (-1)                    O/U: 138.5

St. Mary’s has the look of a team that can take advantage of playing in the first 4 games and ride it into a streak.  I think it is even more telling that the oddsmakers actually listed the 11 seed as the favorite.  I am going to go with the hot hand and take St. Mary’s.  Total seems a little high if St. Mary’s controls the game

Lunatic picks:  St. Mary’s (10)         Under  (20)

Result:     Memphis 54, St. Mary’s 52                                  Line (3-2    24)            Total (4-1    62)

 

 

3:10 pm – Marquette (-3) vs. Davidson                               O/U: 133

I know that Davidson has played some close games against great teams.  But any time you get to take a 3 seed to beat a 14 seed with basically no spread, you have to jump on it hard.

Lunatic picks:   Marquette (30)                Under (10)

Result:     Marquette 59, Davidson 58                                 Line (3-3   -6) Total (5-1    71)

 

 

4:10 pm – Gonzaga (-21.5) vs. Southern                             O/U: 126.5

Gonzaga’s obviously going to win this game – but not sure they can cover 21.5 points.  Not a lot of data points to go by either – since Southern really hasn’t played anyone of note – just a 23 point loss to Iowa State.   When Gonzaga played against teams of a similar RPI, they tended to win by 15-20 points.  So tough to say. 

Lunatic picks:  Southern (10)             Under (10)

Result:     Gonzaga 64, Southern 58                                    Line (4-3   3)               Total (6-1   80)

 

 

4:40 pm – Oklahoma State (-2.5) vs Oregon                       O/U: 134

I think Oregon got a raw deal here.  They were a ranked team until Artis got injured, they stayed competitive but started losing games while he was out, and then won the conference tournament when he came back.  I think the Ducks will have an axe to grind – look for Oregon to pull the upset.

Lunatic picks:   Oregon (20)                Under (10)

Result:      Oregon 68, Oklahoma State 55                          Line (5-3    21)            Total (7-1   89)

 

 

6:50 pm – Louisville (-26) vs. North Carolina A&T           O/U: 124

Wow – I hate giving 26 points to anyone.  But I don’t see NC A&T keeping this game close after almost losing to 15-20 Liberty. 

Lunatic picks:  Louisville  (10)         Over  (20)

Result:     Louisville 79, North Carolina A&T 48  Line (6-3     30)           Total (8-1     107)

 

 

7:15 pm – Michigan (-11) vs. South Dakota State O/U: 139.5

After watching several big 10 games and seeing Trey Burke play, I don’t see South Dakota State giving the Wolverines any problems.

Lunatic picks:   Michigan (20)                Under (20)

Result:     Michigan 71, South Dakota State 56                  Line (7-3     48)           Total (9-1        125)

 

 

7:20 pm – Arizona (-4) vs. Belmont                         O/U: 140

This is a tough one for me.  On one side, I expect that Arizona will win this game.  On the other hand, I wouldn’t put it past Belmont to upset the Wildcats.  Arizona has only covered 140 points in 40% of their games and Belmont is only 50/50 – so I like the under in this game a lot.

Lunatic picks:  Belmont (10)          Under (30)

Result:     Arizona  81, Belmont    64                                   Line (7-4    38)            Total (9-2        95)

 

 

7:27 pm – UNLV (-2.5) vs. California                                 O/U: 131

In a bracketing mistake, these two played earlier in the year to a 76-75 victory for UNLV (teams that played each other aren’t supposed to be able to meet in this round.  Considering that result, I really like the over, and I think I am going to lean cautiously towards Cal.

Lunatic picks:   California (10)                Over (30)

Result:   California 64,  UNLV  61                                     Line (8-4    45) Total (9-3        65)

 

 

9:20 pm – Colorado State vs. Missouri (-3)             O/U: 143

Not sure where this total came from – Missouri scores 143 points slightly less than half the time.  And Colorado State does it 20% of the time.  Otherwise, it is basically a pick-em game, so I will take Missouri.

Lunatic picks:  Missouri  (20)                  Under (30)

Result:    Colorado State 84, Missouri 72                        Line (8-5     25)          Total (9-4       35)

 

 

9:45 pm – VCU (-8) vs. Akron                                             O/U: 134.5

Have to believe in HAVOC!!!!   Go Rams!!!!!!

Lunatic picks:   VCU (20)                  Over (10)

Result:  VCU 88, Akron 42                                             Line (9-5     43)         Total (9-5        25)

 

 

9:50 pm – New Mexico (-11) vs. Harvard               O/U: 125

Harvard played games against some top team pretty tough.  Meanwhile, New Mexico plays really solid defense and tends to control games but not blow teams out.  Don’t think the Lobos lose – but I bet that Harvard keeps this game close.

Lunatic picks:  Harvard  (20)         Under (20)

Result:     Harvard 68, New Mexico 62                               Line (10-5     61)         Total (9-6       5)

 

 

9:57 pm – Syracuse (-12.5) vs. Montana                             O/U: 127

Don’t know much about Montana.   But I can’t see Syracuse letting this game stay close.  I think Syracuse is going to take this game and cover the spread.

Lunatic picks:   Syracuse (20)               Over (20)

Result:     Syracuse 81, Montana 34                                    Line (11-5     79)        Total (9-7      -15)

 

 

ROUND 2 GAMES

Friday’s games

 

12:15 pm – Duke (-18) vs Albany                            O/U: 134

Duke tends to crush smaller conference schools.  The one time Albany played a top team (Ohio St) – they got beat by 22.  I am going to go with the Blue Devils on this one.

Lunatic picks:  Duke  (20)         Under  (10)

Result:     Duke 73, Albany 61                                             Line (0-1   -20)           Total (0-0-1    0)

 

 

12:40 pm – Wisconsin (-6) vs. Ole Miss                               O/U: 128.5

This game will be a considerable clash of styles – Ole Miss scores almost 78 points per game while Wisconsin holds opponents to under 56 per game.  Something will have to give here.  My belief is that Wisconsin is going to slow this game down and shut down the Rebels.  However, because it will be a defensive struggle, I won’t be shocked if the Badgers can’t cover a 6 point spread….  I would stay away from this game completely – but if I have to choose, I will pick a close low scoring affair.

Lunatic picks:   Ole Miss (10)                Under (10)

Result:     Ole Miss 57, Wisconsin 46                                   Line (1-1   -11)           Total (1-0-1    9)

 

 

1:40 pm – North Carolina State (-4.5) vs. Temple  O/U: 150

I think the Wolfpack have the better team and will win this game enough to cover the 4.5 points.  Less sure about the final total – 150 points feels like a lot of points.  I will take the under but with neither team being known as a strong defensive team, I am not going to be confident with that pick.

Lunatic picks:  North Carolina State (20)         Under  (10)

Result:     Temple 76, North Carolina State 72                   Line (1-2     -31)         Total (2-0-1     18)

 

 

2:10 pm – Miami FL (-13) vs. Pacific                                  O/U: 124.5

Pacific has a negative adjusted offensive rating.  Miami has one of the best adjusted defensive ratings in the country.  I expect the Hurricanes aren’t going to let Pacific score a lot of points….

Lunatic picks:   Miami FL (30)                Under (10)

Result:   Miami FL 78, Pacific 49                                    Line (2-2     -4)    Total (2-1-1      8)

 

 

2:45 pm – Creighton (-3.5) vs. Cincinnati               O/U: 128

I think Creighton is the better team here.  And if I think Creighton is going to win, they will also control the pace, which means there should be more scoring that a normal Cincinnati game.

Lunatic picks:  Creighton  (10)         Over  (20)

Result:     Creighton 67, Cincinnati 63                                Line (3-2      5)            Total (3-1-1       26)

 

 

3:10 pm – Kansas State (-5.5) vs. La Salle                    O/U: 131.5

La Salle really impressed me in their first game.   While everything tells me that Kansas State is the better team and will win this game, I will go with my theory on teams that just barely made the tourney.  When they get hot, they tend to make a statement.  I will go with La Salle.

Lunatic picks:   La Salle (10)             Over (20)

Result:   La Salle 63, Kansas State 61                                 Line (4-2       14)       Total (3-2-1        6)

 

 

4:10 pm – Indiana (-21.5) vs James Madison                O/U: 136.5

I normally stay away from these types of games.   I hate giving anyone 21.5 points – and yet I don’t see James Madison keeping this close.  I see this game getting out of hand early – with the Hoosiers scoring well over 80 points to help carry the over.  Might be worth mentioning this interesting stat – Indiana has played 9 small conference schools with RPIs > 75 (JMU is way over that at 182).   All 9 of those games, the Hoosiers have won by 26 or more points – and their high total made all 9 games score more that 138 points….. Only thing stopping me locking this is that 21.5 is a tremendous amount of points to cover….

Lunatic picks:  Indiana (20)         Over  (20)

Result:    Indiana 83, James Madison 62                             Line (4-3       -6)         Total (4-2-1       24) 

 

 

4:40 pm – Illinois (-1) vs. Colorado                          O/U: 126.5

I don’t know what to think about this game.  I will go completely homer on this – and pick the Big 10 school….  While I have been more impressed with the Pac 12 teams than the experts, I don’t know that I should let this cloud my judgment and pick against Illinois.   Both these teams are so inconsistent, I could see it going either way.

Lunatic picks:   Illinois (10)               Over  (20)

Result:     Illinois 57, Colorado 49                                        Line (5-3        3)       Total (4-3-1        4)

 

 

6:50 pm – Georgetown (-13.5) vs. Florida Gulf Coast       O/U: 123.5

I expect Georgetown to control the pace of this game.  While that might make 13.5 tough to cover, I feel safer taking the Hoyas on this.

Lunatic picks:  Georgetown (10)         Under (20)

Result:     Florida Gulf Coast 78, Georgetown 68              Line (5-4       -7)         Total (4-4-1    -16)

 

 

7:15 pm – Ohio State (-14) vs. Iona                          O/U: 145

Iona is going to want to make this a track meet.  My guess is that Ohio State will be smart enough to turn this into a half court game which will play to all of their strengths.  I expect the Buckeyes to dominate this game.

Lunatic picks:   Ohio State (20)                Under (20)

Result:     Ohio State 95, Iona 70                                          Line (6-4         11)       Total (4-5-1    -36)

 

 

7:20 pm – North Carolina (-4) vs. Villanova                       O/U: 143.5

With a line of 4 points, I have to go with who I think will win the game.  I think that will be the Tar Heels – while they have struggled against the top teams like Duke and Miami, they have been extremely strong against teams that are in the bubble range (RPI 30-100) like Villanova.

Lunatic picks:  North Carolina  (20)         Under  (10)

Result:     North Carolina 78, Villanova 71             Line (7-4       29)      Total (4-6-1    -46)

 

 

7:27 pm – Florida (-20) vs. Northwestern State      O/U: 141

I expect that Northwestern State is going to try to get the tempo of this game up.  I think Florida will be happy to run with them.   Going to be cautious with both because of the whole “hard to cover 20 poiints” argument.

Lunatic picks:   Florida (10)               Over  (10)

Result:     Florida 79, Northwestern State 47                      Line (8-4       38)      Total (4-7-1    -56)

 

 

9:20 pm – San Diego State (-3) vs. Oklahoma                     O/U: 133.5

My guess is the Aztecs turn this into a defensive game – and then hit enough free throws at the end of the game to cover the spread.

Lunatic picks:  San Diego State  (20)         Under  (20)

Result:     San Diego State 70, Oklahoma 55                       Line (9-4       56)      Total (5-7-1     -38)

 

 

9:45 pm – Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Iowa State                       O/U: 139

While it pains me to say it, I think the Fighting Irish are the better team in this matchup.  I expect Iowa State to try to get the scoring up in this game, but they will have trouble stopping the Irish from scoring.

Lunatic picks:   Notre Dame (10)                Over  (10)

Result:      Iowa State 76, Notre Dame 58                           Line (9-5       46)       Total (5-8-1     -48)

 

 

9:50 pm – Kansas (-20.5) vs. Western Kentucky                O/U: 133

I expect Kansas will handle this game.  But because Kansas will turn this into more of a defensive game, they will have a tough time covering 20.5 points.

Lunatic picks:  Western Kentucky  (10)         Under (20)

Result:      Kansas 64, Western Kentucky 57                      Line (10-5     55)         Total (6-8-1     -30)    

 

 

9:57 pm – UCLA vs. Minnesota (-3)                                    O/U: 134.5

I think the Pac 12 got some really bad breaks in seeding and opponents.  UCLA was their conference champion – and despite losing an important player, they showed they were still competitive without him.  The Bruins have enough quality players left to cover against a Minnesota team who struggled through the end of the season.  My only lock for the day will be that UCLA will push the tempo and the Gophers will be happy to try to score with them.  UCLA scored more than 135 points in 11 of their 12 games against top 75 RPI teams.

Lunatic picks:   UCLA (10)                Over (30)

Result:       Minnesota 83, UCLA 63                                    Line (10-6     45)         Total (7-8-1      -3)

 

 

 

 

 

 

PLAY-IN GAMES

Tuesday’s games

 

6:40 pm – North Carolina A&T (-3) vs.  Liberty         O/U: 127

This probably demonstrates that I have issues – it is after midnight, and I am picking who will win of a game between NC A&T and Liberty so I get the page up before the game starts.  Liberty had a losing record overall this season – while I think it is impressive they came back to win their tournament, I can’t believe that luck is going to continue.   I will take NC A&T – figure they should at least get over 127 once you add in end of game FTs.

Lunatic picks:  North Carolina A&T  (20)         Over  (20)

Result:     North Carolina A&T 73, Liberty 72                  Line (0-1   -20)           Total (1-0   18)

 

 

9:10 pm     St. Mary’s (-3) vs Middle Tennessee St           O/U: 132

I think Middle Tennessee State is a great story that they made the tournament.  Also think that teams like MTSU who are a part of the questions to the committee of inclusion (How could you pick MTSU over Tennessee or Virginia or Kentucky) tend to come out of the game and prove the committee right by rewarding them with a surprise victory.  But on the other hand, there were questions about St. Mary’s as well – and St. Mary’s has been here before and has a star player in Matthew Dellavedova.   I am going to go with experience and star potential on this one and take St. Mary’s.

Lunatic picks:   St. Mary’s (20)                Under (10)

Result:  St. Mary’s 67, Middle Tennessee St 54     Line (1-1     -2)           Total (2-0    27)

 

PLAY-IN GAMES

Wednesday’s games

 

6:40 pm – LIU Brooklyn (-1.5) vs James Madison         O/U: 145.5

This is LIU Brooklyn’s third straight trip to the dance.  This is James Madison’s first trip since 1994, and they will be without their leading scorer, Rayshawn Goins, for the first half as he serves a suspension for getting arrested this weekend for disorderly conduct and obstructing justice.  I expect that LIU will push the tempo – they scored 90 points in 6 of their last 8 games.  With the edge on experience and JMU being down an important part, I would take LIU.

Lunatic picks:  LIU Brooklyn  (30)         Over  (20)

Result:    James Madison 68, LIU Brooklyn 55                 Line (1-2      -32)           Total (2-1    7)

 

 

9:10 pm     Boise State (-1.5) vs La Salle           O/U: 139

I wasn’t a fan of La Salle making the tournament.  I didn’t like the fact that in the last two games against tournament teams (like St. Louis and Butler), they got lost by double digits.  Not to say that Boise State didn’t have some bad games as well – just that La Salle’s bad games happened at the end of the season.  Add to La Salle’s troubles a foot injury to their center Steve Zack – and that should be what pushes Boise St over the edge.  Both teams like to have guard oriented line-ups – won’t be surprised if this turns into a shootout.

Lunatic picks:   Boise State (20)                Over (10)

Result:   La Salle 80, Boise State 71                         Line (1-3     -52)                    Total (3-1   16)