The Lunatic’s Insane Handicapping:

The Lunatic has been stomped so badly the last few years.  He has felt it necessary to show that he has some talent in picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines.   Because if I can’t beat half the field and can’t pick the field close to the level that the experts do, it is clearly obvious that I can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers. 

 

Lunatic Disclosure #1: This is for recreational purposes only.  The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!

Lunatic Disclosure #2: In case you haven’t read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you.  I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.

 

To give myself a chance (since obviously, some of the closer games, I would just normally leave alone – however, what fun would it be if I didn’t pick every game), I tier my imaginary bets into 10 (no clue), 20 (some confidence), 30 (closest to a lock).  Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit my no clues……    Also, since there are so many first round games, I will probably be brief.

 

After a horrible 2012, the Lunatic did awesome from a money management perspective, winning over $200 mythical dollars.  I doubt we will see a performance like that again.

 

Tues, March 18th – Well – I haven’t seen either 16 seed play before and I didn’t even think that NC State would make the tournament – so that obviously makes me an expert on the games.  Lets get started with this craziness again!!!

Thurs, March 20th – Wow – starting off 7-1 and up $116.  Why I am not in Vegas right now.   Oh yeah – that’s right, if I was there, none of these games would have gone this way.

Friday. March 21st – That’s more like it – all my locks basically losing.  Easy come, easy go.

Saturday, March 22nd – So sad, things started off so well.  But there is plenty of time to make things up – then again, all the favorites look good to me so not sure Saturday will be the day.  J

Sunday, March 23rd – Why am I even predicting totals – I can’t seem to get any of them right. 

Thursday, March 27th – Need another day like Sunday to get me ahead again.  I can’t believe that I am 32-18-2 on the spread and still down 50.  Silly totals…..

Friday, March 28th – Went 50%, so lost my vig.  Starting to run out of time to get even.

Friday, April 4th – Makes sense – after doing so well on the spread.  I start going on a run with the over/under.  Rarely seem to get both of them right.  Well – down $30 with only 3 games to get in the money.  I could keep betting conservatively, or I can do the true gambler thing to do and go all out to win my money back.

Monday, April 7th – Well, getting the Kentucky line at 1.5 instead of 1 proved costly.  Now, I am down going into the final.  So, might as well go big.  J

 

DAY

Vs. SPREAD

Vs OVER/UNDER

Play In Games

 4-0               +72

3-1               +44

Round 2 - Thursday

10-4-2          +42

4-12             -168

Round 2 - Friday

 9-7               -11

 8-8              -23

Round 3 - Saturday

 5-3               +32

 1-7              -92

Round 3 - Sunday

 4-4               +22

5-3               +32

Sweet 16 - Thursday

 2-2               -3

 2-2              -4

Sweet 16 – Friday

 1-1-2           -11

 4-0              +45

Elite 8

 1-3              -41

 3-1              +34

Final Four

 

 

OVERALL      (-30)

36-24-4            + 102

30-34             -132

 

 

 

 

 

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Monday’s game

 

9:10 pm     Connecticut vs Kentucky (-2.5)                         O/U: 135.5

To be honest, I would stay away from this game.  The fact that Kentucky keeps winning games on last second shots makes me nervous on a line that you normally would just pick the winner.  But here is what I would guess.  If you look at star power, both teams have it.  If you look at overall talent, I think you have to give the nod to the freshmen from Kentucky – there was a reason they were the pre-season #1 team.  And if you look at coaching, while Kevin Ollie has done a great job with the Huskies, you have to give the coaching edge to Calapari.   So, all signs lean towards Kentucky – now  I just need them not to wait for a last second buzzer beater (although that would be exciting).  I do expect that Connecticut will try to slow the game down – so I am thinking that the under will win.    I think these lines are both too close to bet big – except for the fact that it is the last game of the season, and I will end up down if I don’t hit both bets, so might as well maximize the amount it can be.

Lunatic picks:        Kentucky  (30)                             Under (30)

Result:     

 

FINAL 4 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

 

6:09 pm    Florida (-6) vs Connecticut                                 O/U: 126.5

So, I don’t completely understand this spread.  These teams are good enough to make it into the Final 4.  These teams played earlier in the season that UConn won on a Shabazz Napier buzzer beater (who hasn’t seen that this March).  I get that game was played on the Huskies home court – but it seems that it is more likely that this will be a nail-biter than a convincing victory for the Gators.   Add in the fact, that the Gators are the only team that hasn’t been finished off by the Lunatic curse – and it seems pretty obvious who you have to take.

Lunatic picks:     Connecticut  (30)                 Over (20)

Result:     Connecticut 63, Florida 53                                 Spread (1-0    +27)                 Totals (0-1      -20)

 

8:49 pm     Wisconsin vs Kentucky (-1.5)                            O/U: 139

I went crazy on the Big 10 teams last Sunday, and I paid for it.   I think that there are two things that are going to factor in here.  One is that Calapari has a lot more big game experience than Bo Ryan – so you have to give the Wildcats the edge on coaching.  The second thing is that the Wildcats were the preseason #1 team in the polls.  There is a reason that Vegas has made the 8 seed a 1.5 point favorite – they still believe that despite the fact that they are freshmen and sophomores, the Wildcats have more talent than the Badgers.  This leads to a conclusion of taking Kentucky to win this game.

Lunatic picks:        Kentucky  (30)                             Over (30)

Result:      Kentucky 74, Wisconsin 73                                Spread (1-1    -3)                    Totals (1-1      +7)

 

 

ELITE 8 GAMES

Sunday’s games

 

 

2:20 pm    Michigan State (-5.5) vs Connecticut                 O/U: 139

This is a tough spread for me.   I think Michigan State is the better team, and I expect that the Spartans are going to win this game.   But considering all the close games in this tournament, the fact that I think this will be another defensive battle, and Connecticut has played much better than I expected them to, I am having a hard time determining what to pick.  I am going to have a lot more fun rooting for the Spartans – and so I will take them.

Lunatic picks:       Michigan State (20)                       Under (20)

Result:      Connecticut 60, Michigan State 54                    Spread (1-2    -21)                  Totals (2-1      +16)

 

5:05 pm    Michigan vs Kentucky (-2)                                 O/U: 141

Same thing here.  I am going to enjoy rooting for the Big 10 team more.  I do think that Kentucky’s freshmen, while having ice in their veins as they showed in both the Wichita State and Louisville games, make a lot of unforced mistakes.  And eventually, in the tournament, that catches up to you.  I think the Wolverines have a little bit more consistency and a little bit more experience – not to mention they are the Big 10 Regular Season Champions.

Lunatic picks:        Michigan (20)                               Over (20)

Result:      Kentucky 75, Michigan 72                                 Spread (1-3     -41)                 Totals (3-1      +34)

 

 

ELITE 8 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

 

6:09 pm    Florida (-10.5) vs Dayton                        O/U: 134

This line is just high enough to make me stay away from this game.  I expect Florida to win the game and they might even blow the Flyers out of the building.  But, I don’t think it is a wise bet to take a team that is known for winning games by defense and say they will win by double digits against a team that has just made their way to the Elite 8.   I think this is the end of Dayton’s Cinderella season, but with an extra 10.5 points, I think you have to side with the Flyers.

Lunatic picks:       Dayton (10)                       Under (20)

Result:      Florida 62, Dayton 52                             Spread (1-0   +9)                   Totals (1-0      +18)

 

8:49 pm    Arizona (-3.5) vs Wisconsin                    O/U: 132

I so badly want to pick the Badgers here.  I am from a Big 10 school – and so I am biased towards the conference.  And this year, they have shown how good they are – as 3 of the final 8 teams playing.  And when you look at the Badgers, they might be the hottest of the Big 10 schools – after destroying a Baylor team that looked like they were going to make a much deeper run.  But then I remember this – the majority of the teams that advance at this point in the tournament tend to be either regular season or conference tournament champions.  There was no debate that Arizona should be one of the top seeds in the tournament – why would you change your opinion at this point.  I figure Arizona wins this game – and with a line of 3.5 – you have to take who you think will win.

Lunatic picks:        Arizona (10)                     Over (20)

Result:       Wisconsin 64, Arizona 63 OT               Spread (1-1    -1)                    Totals (1-1      -2)

 

 

SWEET 16 GAMES

Friday’s games

                                                                                       

7:15 pm    Michigan (-2) vs Tennessee                     O/U: 134

Tennessee has been a fantastic story.  But if you are looking for betting opportunities, this is the game.  On one side, you have a team that made it to last year’s Championship game that had a decent amount of returning players, who then won the Big 10 regular season championship.  On the other side, you have a team that barely made the tournament, and in their Cinderella run, they had to go to overtime against the 6th place team from the Big 10 before crushing UMass and Mercer.  With the spread as 2 points, you have to take the Wolverines.  This is the time of year when teams that have won either regular season championships or conference tournament championships start to be the only ones advancing.

Lunatic picks:      Michigan (30)                     Over (10)

Result:   Michigan 73, Tennessee 71                                    Spread (0-0-1             0)                     Totals (1-0      +9)

 

7:47 pm    Iowa State (-1.5) vs Connecticut                         O/U: 147

This one isn’t quite as aggressive as the Michigan / Tennessee game.  But it is still a similar concept.  You have an Iowa State team who is scoring points at a ridiculous pace, vs. a Connecticut team who are leaning hard on their star player Shabazz Napier.  While I think losing Georges Niang was a big loss, Iowa State still is scoring at will – I think they have too much firepower for the Huskies.

Lunatic picks:       Iowa State (20)                  Over (20)

Result:    Connecticut 81, Iowa State 76                              Spread (0-1-1             -20)                  Totals (2-0            +27)

 

                                                                                       

9:45 pm    Louisville (-4) vs Kentucky                     O/U: 138.5

I don’t like anything about this game.  It is not a coincidence that the over/under is at 138.5, since these teams played in December, with the Wildcats winning 73-66.  At the start of the tournament, I was all over Louisville winning the Midwest region.  But Russ Smith has been really struggling, and they are playing a team that obviously gave them some matchup issues in December.  I would completely stay away from this game, but if I have to pick, I will go with the December result – which would have Kentucky covering with the game barely going over 138.5.

Lunatic picks:       Kentucky (10)                   Over (10)

Result:     Kentucky 74, Louisville 69                                  Spread (1-1-1             -11)                  Totals (3-0            +36)

 

 

9:57 pm    Virginia vs Michigan State (-2)                           O/U: 127

This is going to be an incredible game.  Virginia is the best defensive team in the tournament – they shut down everyone.   On the other side, you have a Michigan State team who is finally healthy – as they rolled through the Big 10 tournament.  In a game like this, I think you have to lean towards the team that has the most talented player.  And while from a system perspective, Virginia plays fantastic basketball – there is slightly more talent on the Spartans.  I think this one is going to be a battle – but nothing I have seen in March has made me not trust my choice about Michigan State winning this region.  Go Spartans.

Lunatic picks:        Michigan State (20)                      Under (10)

Result:     Michigan State 61, Virginia 59                            Spread (1-1-2             -11)                  Totals (4-0            +45)

 

 

 

SWEET 16 GAMES

Thursday’s games

                                                                                       

7:15 pm    Stanford (-3) vs Dayton                          O/U: 133.5

Both teams are relatively streaky.  But with the line being 3 points, you have to pick the team you think is most likely to win.  I guess I will go with Stanford – but it is reluctantly.  The only thing I really like about this game is the total – the closest these teams came to 133.5 in the tournament is Dayton’s 60-59 victory over Ohio State.   Lock the Under!

Lunatic picks:     Stanford (10)                       Under (30)

Result:   Dayton 82, Stanford 72                 Spread (0-1   -10)                   Totals (0-1      -30)

 

7:47 pm    Wisconsin (-3.5) vs Baylor                                  O/U: 136

Another game where the line is probably low enough where you should just pick the straight up winner.  I was really very impressed with how Baylor has been playing.  However, my hunch is that the Badgers will have too many weapons for the Bears.  Still lacking lots of confidence here.

Lunatic picks:     Wisconsin (10)         Under (20)

Result:    Wisconsin 69, Baylor 52               Spread (1-1    -1)                    Totals (1-1      -12)

 

                                                                                       

9:47 pm    Florida (-4.5) vs UCLA                           O/U: 139

I think Florida’s defense is going to be too much for the amazing UCLA offense.  Not to mention the fact that Florida has made the Elite 8 the last two years, they also have players with this type of tournament pressure.  I would side with the Gators.   The only thing that stops me from locking this is that UCLA has been on a run – along with beating a very similarly talented team in Arizona in the Pac 12 championship

Lunatic picks:     Florida (20)              Under (10)

Result:   Florida 79, UCLA 68                     Spread (2-1    +17)                 Totals (1-2      -22)

 

10:17 pm    Arizona (-8) vs San Diego State                                    O/U: 121.5

Arizona traveled to San Diego State to play the Aztecs in an early season game, and won by 9.  This time, the game is on a neutral court – so you have to figure that the Wildcats should be able to at least match that result.  The line is large enough that it makes me nervous, but I have to at least go with past results at a semi-confident level.

Lunatic picks:     Arizona (20)            Over (20)

Result:   Arizona 70, San Diego State 64                 Spread (2-2    -3)        Totals (2-2      -4)

 

 

THIRD ROUND GAMES

Sunday’s games

                                                                                       

12:15 pm    Kansas (-6) vs Stanford                                                O/U: 143

Stanford is such a streaky team – you never know which team is going to come to play.   Kansas on the other hand is trying to survive long enough for Embiid to get back.  I think Wiggins and the remaining starters at Kansas will be enough to get past Stanford.  And so I will figure they cover.

Lunatic picks:     Kansas (20)              Over (10)

Result:   Stanford 60, Kansas 57                 Spread (0-1    -20)                  Totals (0-1    -10)

 

2:45 pm    Wichita State (-4.5) vs Kentucky                                    O/U: 134

Both teams have defensive tendencies – so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a low scoring game.   I can’t believe I am going to do this – but I think the Wildcats have a chance at the upset.  So, if I am going to also get 4.5 points, I am going to take it.   Just thinking that at some point, the pressure of being undefeated is going to catch up to the Shockers.   And Kentucky never should have been an 8 seed.  

Lunatic picks:     Kentucky (10)         Under (10)

Result:   Kentucky 78, Wichita State 76                  Spread (1-1    -11)                  Totals (0-2      -20)

 

5:15 pm    Iowa State (-1.5) vs North Carolina                               O/U: 159

I think losing Georges Niang is going to be a big deal for Iowa State.  My guess is that there still won’t be a lot of defense played in this game – and that it will be a high scoring affair.   But I think the Tar Heels are going to get a fortunate opportunity thanks to the injury.

Lunatic picks:    North Carolina (10)              Over (10)

Result:    Iowa State 85, North Carolina 83            Spread (1-2    -21)                  Totals (1-2      -11)

 

6:10 pm    Tennessee (-7.5) vs Mercer                                             O/U: 130

How many times to you see an 11 seed that came into the tournament through the play-in game suddenly be a 7.5 point favorite.   I am struggling with this pick.  There is a lot to be said about surprising runs from the play-in game.  However, if Duke lost by 8 to Mercer, do I place a bet that the Volunteers will beat Mercer by that same margin.  Normally, this is where 14 seeds end their season – but something tells me not to spot that many points.

Lunatic picks:    Mercer (10)                           Over (30)

Result:    Tennessee 83, Mercer 63                          Spread (1-3    -31)                  Totals (2-2      +16)

 

7:10 pm    UCLA (-9) vs Stephen F Austin                         O/U: 144

While it is probably a little mean, since SFA is 32-2, I still believe that there are probably lots of fair comparisons that can be made with UCLA’s last opponent, Tulsa.   The Bruins were able to easily dispatch of the Hurricanes – and so my guess is the hot Bruins will also be able to take care of SFA.  Really worried about the amount of points, but I think that UCLA has too many weapons for the Lumberjacks.

Lunatic picks:    UCLA (10)                           Under (10)

Result:    UCLA 77, Stephen F Austin 60               Spread (2-3    -22)                  Totals (3-2      +25)

 

7:40 pm    Creighton (-3.5) vs Baylor                                              O/U: 143

This is one of those awkward places where do you go against what you initially thought.  Obviously, in my picks I have Creighton over Baylor to make the Sweet 16.  However, Baylor has looked really good lately.  I think I stick with my original pick – since a 3.5 point spread is close to basically who wins the game, but especially after Villanova went down, my confidence in the Big East schools is much lower.

Lunatic picks:   Creighton (10)                       Over (20)

Result:   Baylor 85, Creighton 55                            Spread (2-4    -32)                  Totals (3-3      +5)

 

8:40 pm    Virginia (-6) vs Memphis                                                O/U: 129

I could be wrong by this – but for the most part this theory was effective yesterday.  When you get a chance to get a #1 seed against a #8 seed and only have to give up 6 points, you have to take your chances with the team that demonstrated they were one of the top 4 teams in college basketball over the regular season.  I expected the Cavaliers will cover.

Lunatic picks:    Virginia (30)             Over (10)

Result:   Virginia 78, Memphis 60                           Spread (3-4    -5)                    Totals (4-3      +14)

 

9:40 pm    Arizona (-6.5) vs Gonzaga                                              O/U: 127

If you read what I just put in the last game, you have to go with the same theory.  I think Gonzaga has had a great season, but if you really believed that the Wildcats were one of the top 4 teams in the country, you have to expect them to cover 6.5 points.

Lunatic picks:     Arizona (30)                        Over (20)

Result:   Arizona 84, Gonzaga 61                            Spread (4-4    +22)                 Totals (5-3      +32)

 

 

THIRD ROUND GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

12:15 pm    Florida (-5) vs Pittsburgh                                  O/U: 124

I think this line is lower than what it normally would have been because Pittsburgh came out with a dominating performance over Colorado and Florida came out flat against Albany.   But I still have to go with the fact that I think the Gators are the best team in the country.  Expect the Gators to bounce back from a slow start against Albany with a more impressive performance against the Panthers.

Lunatic picks:     Florida (30)              Over  (20)

Result:    Florida 61, Pitt 45                          Spread (1-0    +27)                 Totals (0-1      -20)

 

2:45 pm    Louisville (-9) vs Saint Louis                               O/U: 133

I know St. Louis won their first game but I still feel like they got extremely lucky based on how many shots that NC State missed.   If this game goes in a similar fashion, I don’t expect Louisville to miss those opportunities. 

Lunatic picks:     Louisville (20)                     Over  (10)

Result:    Louisville 66, St. Louis 51             Spread (2-0    +45)                 Totals (0-2      -30)

 

5:15 pm    Michigan (-5) vs Texas                            O/U: 139

Texas didn’t seem to play much defense against Arizona State – so I expect that Michigan is going to be able to make enough stops to cover the 5 point spread.   A little more confused on the totals – Michigan’s first game only totaling 97 points going against Texas’s first game totaling 172 doesn’t provide good guidance on the pace of this game – will guess the Wolverines control the pace.

Lunatic picks:     Michigan (30)                      Under  (10)

Result:   Michigan 79, Texas 65                               Spread (3-0    +72)                 Totals (0-3    -40)

 

6:10 pm    San Diego State (-3) vs North Dakota State                  O/U: 125.5

I really don’t know what to think about this game.  Normally, I would tell you that if you can get the chance to take a 4 seed against a 12 seed and only give up 3 points, you take it.   But San Diego State didn’t play like a typical 4 seed.  And North Dakota State is better than New Mexico State.   I am going to guess that San Diego State started slow and will continue to take care of business – but quite honestly, I will be rooting for Cinderella.

Lunatic picks:     San Diego State (10)                       Over  (20)

Result:   San Diego State 63, North Dakota State 44                     Spread (4-0    +81)                 Totals (0-4      -60)

 

7:10 pm    Syracuse (-7) vs Dayton              O/U: 128

I think Syracuse is going to win this game – but a little nervous about the line.  The games this tournament have been close – and I thought Syracuse and Ohio State were very similar teams.  I think Syracuse has a little bit more fire-power on offense, and so I am going to stick with the Orange – but not with lots of confidence.

Lunatic picks:     Syracuse (10)                       Over  (20)

Result:  Dayton 55, Syracuse 53                  Spread (4-1    +71)                 Totals (0-5      -80)

 

7:45 pm    Wisconsin (-5) vs Oregon                                    O/U: 145

This will be a battle of who controls the pace.   Oregon is going to try to push the tempo.  Wisconsin will likely in turn slow the game to a crawl.  I expect that the Badgers both on offense and defense is going to take the Ducks out of their rhythm and that will help the Badgers win this game.

Lunatic picks:     Wisconsin (20)                     Under  (20)

Result:  Wisconsin 85, Oregon 77                Spread (5-1    +89)                 Totals (0-6      -100)

 

8:40 pm    Michigan State (-7.5) vs Harvard                       O/U: 137

Harvard has been a great story against this year.  It is unfortunate that they drew the Spartans – who I think are better than what their seed suggests.  I think that MSU is on a mission and should be able to cover the 8 points needed to beat the Ivy league champion.

Lunatic picks:     Michigan State (20)             Under  (10)

Result:   Michigan State 80, Harvard 73                 Spread (5-2    +69)                 Totals (0-7      -110)

 

9:40 pm    Villanova (-3.5) vs Connecticut                          O/U: 132.5

Have to go big when you get the chance to take a number 2 seed with just 3.5 points.   Very surprised this line isn’t a little bit higher, especially with Connecticut just barely escaping St. Joseph’s.  I think that Villanova is going to take control in this game – and won’t be as likely to let the Huskies come back at the end like St. Joseph’s did.

Lunatic picks:     Villanova (30)                      Over  (20)

Result:   Connecticut 77, Villanova 65                    Spread (5-3    +39)                 Totals (1-7      -92)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Friday’s games

 

12:15 pm    Duke (-12.5) vs Mercer                                     O/U: 140

After watching the close games from today, I imagine that Duke is going to try to take over early and not find themselves in a close game like some other top teams have. 

Lunatic picks:     Duke (20)                Over  (10)

Result:    Mercer 78, Duke 71          Spread (0-1     -20)                 Totals (1-0      9)

             

12:40 pm    Baylor (-3.5) vs Nebraska                                 O/U: 131

I was originally really high on Baylor because of their hot finish, but the two Big 12 games I watched on Thursday make me a little nervous about the Big 12.  Of course, the Big 10 teams haven’t totally dominated either – so just not sure.  I will stick with the Bears – but with no confidence.

Lunatic picks:     Baylor  (10)             Under (10)

Result:    Baylor 74, Nebraska 60                Spread (1-1    -11)                  Totals (1-1      -1)

 

1:40 pm    New Mexico (-3) vs Stanford                              O/U: 137

Not really sure what to think in this game.  My initial gut said this would be an upset – so I will go with that.

Lunatic picks:     Stanford  (10)          Under  (10)

Result:    Stanford 58, New Mexico 53        Spread (2-1    2)                     Totals (2-1      8)

 

2:10 pm    Arizona (-20) vs Weber State                             O/U: 127.5

This goes in the same boat as the Duke game.  I expect the Wildcats to come out and make sure Weber State doesn’t keep this game close.

Lunatic picks:     Arizona  (10)                       Over (10)

Result:    Arizona 68, Weber State 59         Spread (2-2    -8)                    Totals (2-2      -2)

 

2:45 pm    Massachusetts vs Tennessee (-4)             O/U: 137

Many know my opinions about the Atlantic 10.   The A10 teams on Thursday played better than what I expected, but not well enough to change my thoughts.  I am going to take Tennessee – who seems on a pretty good roll right now.

Lunatic picks:     Tennessee  (20)                    Under  (20)

Result:    Tennessee 86, Massachusetts 67               Spread (3-2    10)       Totals (2-3      -22)

 

3:10 pm    Creighton (-14) vs Louisiana-Lafayette             O/U: 154.5

I think both teams are going to try to run – but I think Creighton will be the one that gets the benefit out of that.   Expect lots of points.  

Lunatic picks:     Creighton  (30)                    Over  (20)

Result:    Creighton 76, Louisiana-Lafayette 66                 Spread (3-3    -20)      Totals (2-4      -42)

 

4:10 pm    Kansas (-14) vs Eastern Kentucky                                 O/U: 150.5

Eastern Kentucky’s other two games against major conference teams (NC State and Wisconsin) didn’t end well – so I am going to expect the Jayhawks to coast.

Lunatic picks:     Kansas (30)              Under  (10)

Result:    Kansas 80, Eastern Kentucky 69                         Spread (3-4    -50)      Totals (3-4      -33)

 

4:40 pm    Gonzaga vs Oklahoma State (-3)                                    O/U: 139

I think that Marcus Smart is going to be the difference in this one.  He didn’t come back for his sophomore season to lose in the first round.  I don’t think Gonzaga has anyone who can stop him.

Lunatic picks:     Oklahoma State (20)                       Under (20)

Result:    Gonzaga 85, Oklahoma State 77                          Spread (3-5    -70)      Totals (3-5      -53)

 

6:55 pm    Memphis (-3) vs George Washington                            O/U: 142.5

This feels to me the same as the UMass game.   I just don’t have enough confidence in the A10 teams to go with GW. 

Lunatic picks:     Memphis  (10)                     Under  (20)

Result:    Memphis 71, George Washington 66                  Spread (4-5    -61)      Totals (4-5      -35)

 

7:10 pm    Wichita State (-16) vs Cal Poly SLO                              O/U: 125.5

Don’t expect Wichita State’s perfect season to end at the hands of a team with a losing record for the season.  The Cal Poly story has been fun – but I expect reality to catch up to them on Friday.

Lunatic picks:     Wichita State (20)               Over (30)

Result:    Wichita State 64, Cal Poly SLO 37                      Spread (5-5    -43)      Totals (4-6      -65)

 

7:20 pm    North Carolina (-4) vs Providence                                             O/U: 143.5

North Carolina is going to want to run – and I don’t think Providence will slow them down.

Lunatic picks:    North Carolina (30)              Over (30)

Result:    North Carolina 79, Providence 77                       Spread (5-6    -73)      Totals (5-6      -38)

 

7:27 pm    VCU (-6.5) vs Stephen F Austin             O/U: 137

I can’t in good conscience pick against the home town team.  I expect VCU to win anyways – so lets figure they will cover as well.

Lunatic picks:     VCU (10)                Over  (20)

Result:    Stephen F Austin 77, VCU 75  OT                      Spread (5-7    -83)      Totals (6-6      -20)

 

9:25 pm    Virginia (-21.5) vs Coastal Carolina                              O/U: 122.5

Coastal Carolina played a few games tight against big conference schools.  Virginia is going to win this game, but not sure with it being a slow paced game that they will also be able to cover 22 points.

Lunatic picks:     Coastal Carolina (10)           Under  (10)

Result:    Virginia 70, Coastal Carolina 59                         Spread (6-7    -74)      Totals (6-7      -30)

 

9:40 pm    Kentucky (-6.5) vs Kansas State                                                O/U: 132.5

I am still impressed with how Kentucky played during the SEC tournament.   And Kansas State didn’t finish on the strongest note – playing competitively but not picking up the victories.

Lunatic picks:     Kentucky (20)                     Under (10)

Result:    Kentucky 56, Kansas State 49                             Spread (7-7     -56)     Totals (7-7      -21)

 

9:50 pm    Iowa State (-8) vs North Carolina Central                                            O/U: 145

Iowa State was shooting the lights out in the Big 12 tournament.  NC Central played some competitive games – including beating NC State, but I just have a gut feeling that I should stick with the Cyclones.

Lunatic picks:     Iowa State (20)                    Over (20)

Result:    Iowa State 93, NC Central 75                              Spread (8-7     -38)     Totals (8-7      -3)

 

9:57 pm    UCLA (-8.5) vs Tulsa                  O/U: 145

Tulsa lost its three games to top 100 teams in the tournament by double digits – I expect the Bruins to do the same.

Lunatic picks:     UCLA (30)  Over    (20)

Result:    UCLA 76, Tulsa 59                                               Spread (9-7     -11)     Totals (8-8      -23)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECOND ROUND GAMES

Thursday’s games

 

12:15 pm    Ohio State (-6) vs. Dayton                                             O/U: 131.5

This is a hard game for me to pick.   I am biased to the Big 10 – and I think Ohio State is the better team.   But I also look at Ohio State’s last 6 games, and while they won half of them, they didn’t cover 6 points in any of them.  If I throw in the 6 point spread, I think that puts the probabilities in the Flyers favor.  I estimate this will be a higher scoring game as well – while both teams do occasionally play defensive minded games, my hunch is they cover 131.5….

Lunatic picks:     Dayton  (10)                        Over  (20)

Result:    Dayton 60, Ohio State 59              Spread (1-0    9)         Totals (0-1      -20)

             

12:40 pm    Wisconsin (-12.5) vs. American Univ                           O/U: 121

Wisconsin has to be elated to have received a 2 seed.   American has to be elated to just be in the tournament.   I think the line is going to be close.    This Wisconsin team is better at scoring points than the typical Badger team.  While American did play a close game against Ohio State earlier in the season, I think the Badgers are going to have too much for them.

Lunatic picks:     Wisconsin  (20)                    Over  (20)

Result:    Wisconsin 75, American 35          Spread (2-0    27)       Totals (0-2      -40)

 

1:40 pm    Colorado vs Pitt (-6.5)                                                     O/U: 127.5

Pitt is the amazing king of playing close games.   In their last 12 games, 9 of their games were decided by less than 6 points.  After Colorado lost their star player Spencer Dinwiddie to a season-ending ACL injury, the Buffalos managed to win enough games by amazingly strong defense to stay worthy enough to dance.   This looks to me like a recipe for a close game.   

Lunatic picks:     Colorado  (30)                     Under  (10)

Result:    Pitt 77, Colorado 48                      Spread (2-1    -3)        Totals (1-2      -31)

 

2:10 pm    Cincinnati (-3) vs Harvard                                              O/U: 121.5

I know this is probably a mistake, but I never completely bought in on Cincinnati.    And this is a Harvard team that managed to pull off a major upset last year, and beat a weak schedule and dominate the Ivy league to get back to the dance.  I am a sucker for small conference champions – I will pick Harvard to make the upset.

Lunatic picks:     Harvard  (10)                       Over (20)

Result:    Harvard 61, Cincinnati 57            Spread (3-1    6)         Totals (1-3      -51)

 

2:45 pm    Syracuse (-13) vs Western Michigan                              O/U: 128

Syracuse really struggled down the stretch – but they also dominated every single smaller conference school that they faced this season.   I would totally lock this game if it wasn’t for the way the Orange finished the season.  But I still figure the Orange will cover and I anticipate Syracuse scoring a lot of points in this one.

Lunatic picks:     Syracuse  (20)                      Over  (30)

Result:    Syracuse 77, Western Michigan 53          Spread (4-1    24)       Totals (2-3      -24)

 

3:10 pm    Oregon (-5) vs BYU                                                         O/U: 158

This is a rematch from the season – where Oregon beat BYU 100 – 96 in OT.   The only difference is this time, the Cougars will be missing their second leading scorer Kyle Collinsworth.   I imagine that the pace of this game is going to still lead to tons of points.   But I think the injury is going to be the difference between a game that went to overtime and a game that will be a more comfortable victory for the Ducks.  

Lunatic picks:     Oregon  (30)                        Over  (30)

Result:    Oregon 87, BYU 68                                   Spread (5-1    51)       Totals (2-4      -54)

 

4:10 pm    Florida (-21) vs Albany                                                   O/U: 121

I don’t know what to say here.   No doubts that Florida will win.  But covering 21 points is a lot of points.    Albany also didn’t get blown out by 21 when they played Pitt earlier in the season.   Obviously, Florida is better than Pitt – but it is a lot of points to cover.  

Lunatic picks:     Albany (10)             Under  (10)

Result:    Florida 67, Albany 55                               Spread (6-1    60)       Totals (2-5      -64)

 

4:40 pm    Michigan State (-14) vs Delaware                                  O/U: 153.5

I think Michigan State is going to come into this game and try to make a statement that they are all now healthy – so watch out tournament.  Delaware played close to some big school teams, including a 12 point loss to Ohio State.  So, while it wouldn’t surprise me if the Colonial champs kept it close, I also wouldn’t bet on it.   And if I think that Michigan State is going to cover, the teams probably don’t put up 154 points….

Lunatic picks:     Michigan State (20)             Under (30)

Result:    Michigan State 93, Delaware 78              Spread (7-1    78)       Totals (2-6      -94)

 

6:55 pm    Connecticut (-5.5) vs St. Joseph’s                                               O/U: 130.5

When I look at St. Joseph’s resume, it really starts to be a question of how good you believe the Atlantic 10 really is.   All of St. Joseph’s top victories came against Atlantic 10 opponents (3 of them being Dayton).   While I might regret it, I just don’t think St. Joseph’s is going to be able to compete against a bigger school like UConn.   Take the Huskies in a low scoring game.

Lunatic picks:     Connecticut  (20)                 Under  (20)

Result:    Connecticut 89, St Joseph’s 81     OT      Spread (8-1    96)       Totals (2-7      -114)

 

7:10 pm    Michigan (-15.5) vs Wofford                                          O/U: 129

I expect the Wolverines to be firing up a lot of points in this one.    If you figure that Michigan is going to get to 80 points, Wofford only needs to get to 50.    While I never would lock a 15.5 point spread, I really like the total on this game.

Lunatic picks:     Michigan  (20)                     Over (30)

Result:    Michigan 57, Wofford 40                         Spread (9-1    114)     Totals (2-8      -144)

 

7:20 pm    St. Louis (-3) vs NC State                                                O/U: 131.5

St. Louis lost 4 of their last 5 games – including to St. Bonaventure and Duquesne.    And I have already explained the theory on NC State – no one expected they would even be here, they are playing with house money.   And since I am playing with imaginary money, I am locking it.  Go Wolfpack!!!!!!!!!!!

Lunatic picks:    NC State  (30)                      Over (20)

Result:    St. Louis 83, North Carolina State 80   OT         Spread (9-1-1      114)            Totals (3-8      -126)

 

7:27 pm    Oklahoma (-3.5) vs North Dakota St                             O/U: 152

Oklahoma quietly went along having a very good season in a tough Big 12 conference.    And they have some pretty strong victories.   They also won 5 of their last 7 games (of which 5 of those games were against tournament teams).   While North Dakota State seems to be a trendy pick for an upset, they also were blown out by 17 points by Ohio State.    While one game doesn’t make a season, I also don’t think the Buckeyes are 14 points better than the Sooners. 

Lunatic picks:     Oklahoma  (30)                    Under  (20)

Result:    North Dakota State 80, Oklahoma 75 OT          Spread (9-2-1 84)       Totals (3-9      -146)

 

9:25 pm    Villanova (-16.5) vs Milwaukee                                      O/U: 140

This has all the recipes of a blowout.    While I think the Horizon conference was better than people believe it was, I think Villanova is going to crush Milwaukee.   The line of 16.5 is probably not a coincidence that of Villanova’s 12 wins against RPI 100+ teams, 3 of them were by 16 points and 7 were by 17 or more……  

Lunatic picks:     Villanova (20)                      Over  (20)

Result:    Villanova 73, Milwaukee 53                                 Spread (10-2-1           102)     Totals (3-10    -166)

 

9:40 pm    Texas (-2) vs Arizona State                                                         O/U: 142

I don’t like anything about this game.   The Longhorns lost 5 of their last 8 games, including being blown out in their conference tournament by 17 against Baylor.    The Sun Devils lost 5 of their last 7 games, including being blown out by 21 points in their conference tournament by Stanford.    Neither of these teams have any momentum, so it is hard to pick either of them.   Lets take the 10 seed just to have some fun.

Lunatic picks:     Arizona State (10)               Under (10)

Result:    Texas 87, Arizona State 85                                   Spread (10-2-2           102)     Totals (3-11    -176)

 

9:50 pm    Louisville (-16.5) vs Manhattan                                      O/U: 142.5

In Louisville’s last 12 games, 9 of them have been victories by double digits.  I expect it to be a really long day for Manhattan.

Lunatic picks:      Louisville (30)                    Under (20)

Result:    Louisville 71, Manhattan 64                                 Spread (10-3-2           72)       Totals (4-11    -158)

 

9:57 pm    San Diego State (-6.5) vs New Mexico State                              O/U: 128

New Mexico State has played some close games against the biggest rival for the Aztecs – including a surprise victory against New Mexico.  However, most of the other data points suggest that San Diego State is at least a double digit favorite.   This seems like a really low spread for a 4 – 13 matchup – so I would go all out with the spread.

Lunatic picks:     San Diego State (30)           Under  (10)

Result:    San Diego St 73, New Mexico State 69                Spread (10-4-2           42)       Totals (4-12    -168)

 

 

PLAY IN GAMES

Wednesday’s games

 

6:40 pm    Cal Poly (-3.5)  vs Texas Southern                                 O/U: 130

According to the RPI, Texas Southern’s only top 200 victories are Southern University (174) and Temple (179).   Cal Poly might have had a losing record, but they had 4 – including their conference tournament victories against UC-Santa Barbara (107) and UC-Irvine (114).   The fact is that while Cal Poly’s schedule is not the best, they still played much tougher competition than Texas Southern – and they performed better in their games against tougher competition.  So, I am going to take Cal Poly to win a game in the tournament despite having a losing record for the season.

Lunatic picks:     Cal Poly (20)                       Under (10)

Result:    Cal Poly 81,  Texas Southern 69              Spread (3-0         54)              Total: (2-1      26)

 

9:10 pm    Iowa (-2.5) vs Tennessee                                                 O/U: 144

Iowa stumbled their way into the tournament, losing 6 of their last 7 – and looking pretty bad as they lost to Northwestern.   Tennessee won 6 of their last 8 – including playing a really close game in the SEC tournament against the #1 Florida Gators.  The Volunteers ended the season playing like they were doing everything they could to show they belonged at the dance.   The Hawkeyes looked like they figured that their dance invitation was sent at the end of January and mailed in the rest of the season.   I think Iowa probably has more talent – but Tennessee looks more like a team playing on all cylinders.  I will go with the Volunteers.

Lunatic picks:     Tennessee (20)                     Under (20)

Result:     Tennessee 78, Iowa 65   OT                     Spread (4-0         72)            Total  (3-1      44)

 

 

PLAY IN GAMES

Tuesday’s games

 

6:40 pm    Albany (-2.5) vs Mt St. Mary’s                                       O/U: 141.5

These teams look surprisingly close based on their results.  They played 3 similar opponents.  Albany went 3-2 against them.  Mt. St. Mary’s went 1-2 against them – but all the results were close games like Albany did.  So, in order to come to a decision, I am going to look at the couple of games they played against top teams.  In that case, Albany lost to Pitt by 12 points, and Mt. St. Mary’s lost got blown out of the gym by Michigan State, Villanova and BYU.  So, I am going to go with Albany.  They appear to be the one least likely to have a bad game.  Since I think Albany is going to win the game, and they tend to have lower scoring games (averaging around 130) and both will likely be nervous on the big stage, I will take the under.

Lunatic picks:     Albany (20)             Under (20)

Result:     Albany 71,   Mt. St. Mary’s 64                   Spread:  (1-0    18)  Total:  (1-0    18)

 

9:10 pm    Xavier (-2.5) vs North Carolina State                            O/U: 142

So, let me get this straight.  Xavier is going to be playing a team that no one thought was going to make the tournament at Dayton, Ohio – less than one hour from their campus.  Well, this is an obvious one.   I am going with the Wolfpack of North Carolina State.   OK – so here is the reasoning.  Every year, there are one or two teams that everyone (including myself) think that the committee made a mistake in having in the field.  And then that team basically being so excited just to have a chance to play in the tournament goes out and proves the committee right by winning their first game (if not more – remember VCU when they went on their magical run – everyone was criticizing the committee for that choice as well).  And this team that no one thinks should be there has ACC Player of the Year T.J. Warren.   I will take my chances with the team that no one believes should be there.

Lunatic picks:     North Carolina State (20)                Under (20)

Result:     North Carolina State 74,  Xavier 59              Spread (2-0     36)           Total: (2-0       36)