The Lunatic’s Insane Handicapping:

The Lunatic has been stomped so badly the last few years.  He has felt it necessary to show that he has some talent in picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines.   Because if I can’t beat half the field and can’t pick the field close to the level that the experts do, it is clearly obvious that I can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers. 

 

Lunatic Disclosure #1: This is for recreational purposes only.  The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!

Lunatic Disclosure #2: In case you haven’t read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you.  I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.

 

To give myself a chance (since obviously, some of the closer games, I would just normally leave alone – however, what fun would it be if I didn’t pick every game), I tier my imaginary bets into 10 (no clue), 20 (some confidence), 30 (closest to a lock).  Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit my no clues……    Also, since there are so many first round games, I will probably be brief.

 

Following the confidence of a highly successful 2013 in handicapping the games, I lost mythical money in 2014.   That should probably give enough context to anyone thinking this might be useful for anything other than good laughs and entertainment.

 

Tues, March 17th – Well – I haven’t seen either 16 seed play before and I didn’t even think that NC State would make the tournament – so that obviously makes me an expert on the games.  Lets get started with this craziness again!!!

Wed. March 18th – Starting off down 85 after the 4 play-in games – off to my typical start.   0-3 on locks – no surprise there either.

Thurs, March 19th – That was painful – down so far I am embarrassed.  I am going to blame being sleep deprived.   Friday is another day.

Friday, March 20th – I am do so very bad at this year’s games.  It is making me wonder why I even do this.   

Saturday, March 21st – Well, after rethinking it, if I am going to lose hundreds, it might as well be because of worst decisions.  When you are down big, the only way to play is to bet bigger to try to win it back – right.   Lets lock everything – since the betting gods will know that is not the case, it should remove the locking curse.

Sunday, March 22nd – TILT!!!!!  TILT!!!!!    TILT!!!!!   So glad this all imaginary!!!!!   Not sure I am even trying any more – just filling out the form…..

Thursday, March 26th – I haven’t even bothered to add up the damage from the first weekend - looks like it is over $400 down.   HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!   If someone is simply betting contrarian to me right now, they are winning BIG!!!!!

Saturday, March 28th – Down 338 through the Sweet 16.   That means I have to go a perfect 14-0 to finish ahead.  Doesn’t feel fair to be allowed to bet more.  This was a very poor attempt by the Lunatic this year……..

Saturday, April 4th – Make it down a perfect 350…..   Awesome!   This is despite going 10-2 against the spread in last week’s games.  I almost didn’t pick today’s games due to fear that I would jinx my teams.  But that is not the way the Lunatic works.  It would be at least a moral victory if I could stay better than 50% against the spread – so I will keep trying.

 

DAY

Vs. SPREAD

Vs OVER/UNDER

Play In Games

1-3              -71

2-2               -14

Round 2 - Thursday

4-12            -146

8-8               -33

Round 2 - Friday

9-7              +23

6-10             -112

Round 3 - Saturday

5-3              +45

2-5-1            -96

Round 3 - Sunday

4-4              -12

4-4               -12

Sweet 16 - Thursday

3-1              +51

1-3               -63

Sweet 16 – Friday

3-1              +51

3-1               +51

Elite 8

4-0              +108

0-4               -120

Final Four

 

 

OVERALL     

 

 

 

 

 

 

FINAL 4 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

6:09 pm    Duke (-5.5) vs Michigan State                O/U: 138

Tough call here – on one side, I have picked Duke this far – what should stop now.   But the 5.5 points make me nervous – and I love the Big 10.   This also goes against the never bet against Tom Izzo in March – but then are you really going to go against Coach K!!!  When these teams played last time, Duke won by 10 on a neutral court in a high scoring game.  Guess the smart bet would be that this would be a prelude for what today’s game will be.

Lunatic picks:   Duke  (30)                             Over (30)

Result: 

 

8:49 pm    Kentucky (-4.5) vs Wisconsin                             O/U: 131

This is tough as well because I really like both teams.   How can you not like the team that is 38-0 with only 4.5 points as the spread.  Probably because Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker are the opponents….   I am going to stick with my picks and go with who I have winning.  But I don’t expect the Wildcats to win by too much more than the line.

Lunatic picks:    Kentucky (30)                      Over (30)

Result:   

 

ELITE 8 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

2:20 pm    Louisville vs. Michigan State (-2.5)                                O/U: 128.5

With the line being 2.5 points, you have to pick the team you think will win the game.  I have no good reason for it other than having to stick with my Big 10 roots, and the rule I have learned through the years - never bet against Tom Izzo in March.  Go Spartans.

Lunatic picks:   Michigan State (30)                           Under (30)

Result:   Michigan State 76-70         Spread (3-0    +81)                 Totals (0-3      -90)

 

5:05 pm    Duke (-2.5) vs. Gonzaga                          O/U: 145

Same thing with this game – pick who you think will win.  Gonzaga is playing with the weight of trying to become the first team in school history to make the Final Four.   Duke is just more talented and while obviously both teams have pressure on them, I think it will be more on the Zags.   Go Blue Devils.

Lunatic picks:    Duke (30)                                         Over (30)

Result:    Duke 63-57                         Spread (4-0    +108)               Totals (0-4      -120)

 

 

ELITE 8 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

6:09 pm    Wisconsin vs Arizona (-1.5)                                O/U: 132.5

Both Wisconsin and Arizona have been playing crazy close games in order to get to this point.   And this is exactly the game that happened last year in the West Region.  Arizona is supposed to be favored to win, the game is on the West Coast further giving Arizona the advantage, and yet, Wisconsin wins the game.   My gut feel is that happens again.   After watching the games, it feels like Wisconsin has just a little bit more talent and are slightly more consistent.

Lunatic picks:   Wisconsin (30)                                   Under (30)

Result:   Wisconsin 85-78                  Spread (1-0    +27)                 Totals (0-1      -30)

 

8:49 pm    Kentucky (-11) vs Notre Dame                           O/U: 137

I feel much less confident on this game.  On one hand, Notre Dame is much better than any team that Kentucky has had to face over the tournament – in fact one could say that the Irish are the best team that Kentucky has had to face all season (the best teams the Wildcats have played are probably UNC, Louisville and Kansas).  On the other hand, if Kentucky is beating West Virginia by almost 40 points, does an increase in talent change the result as drastically need for the Irish to cover.   I am going to go crazy here – and side with the Irish – I think that Kentucky is going to be a little surprised that they can’t completely control that game as easily.

Lunatic picks:    Notre Dame (30)                  Under (30)

Result:  Kentucky 68-66                   Spread (2-0    +54)                 Totals (0-2      -60)

 

 

SWEET 16 GAMES

Friday’s games

 

7:15 pm    Gonzaga (-8.5) vs UCLA                                    O/U: 144

This is a rematch from December in Los Angeles – where the Zags won 87-74.   Since Gonzaga was able to cover before, I will figure they do it again. 

Lunatic picks:   Gonzaga (30)                         Over (30)

Result:   Gonzaga 74-62                    Spread (1-0    +27)                 Totals (0-1      -30)

 

7:47 pm    Louisville (-2.5) vs North Carolina State                       O/U: 129.5

Interesting, another rematch where the road team won – this time NC State took out Louisville 74-65.  I will go with the Wolfpack to do it again.

Lunatic picks:    North Carolina State (30)                 Over (30)

Result:  Louisville 75-65                    Spread (1-1    -3)                    Totals (1-1      -3)

 

9:45 pm    Duke (-5) vs Utah                                                O/U: 134.5

Utah is a really disciplined team – but I think Duke just has too much talent.  With a 5 point line, they really just need to have a lead and hit their free throws to ice the game. 

Lunatic picks:    Duke (30)                 Under (30)

Result:   Duke 63-57                          Spread (2-1    +24)                 Totals (2-1      +24)

 

10:17 pm    Oklahoma vs Michigan State (-1.5)                              O/U: 135

I still like Michigan State to win this game – they are playing hot since the Big 10 tournament started, and there is the rule of not betting against Tom Izzo in March.

Lunatic picks:    Michigan State (30)              Under (30)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Result:   Michigan State 62-58         Spread (3-1    +51)                 Totals (3-1      +51)

 

 

SWEET 16 GAMES

Thursday’s games

 

7:15 pm    Notre Dame vs Wichita State (-2)                       O/U: 137

I think everyone has sided with the Shockers because of the big win against Kansas.   But Notre Dame is a crazy good team – and one that I felt going into the tournament was better than Kansas, I expect the Irish to keep winning.

Lunatic picks:   Notre Dame (30)                   Under (30)

Result:   Notre Dame 81-70              Spread (1-0    +27)                 Totals (0-1      -30)

 

7:47 pm    Wisconsin (-6) vs North Carolina                       O/U: 145

I am really torn here.   I actually like both teams.  I think UNC has the ability to pull the upset.  However, I also have seen how Wisconsin through the season just runs away from teams.  I am going to go with the pick the team with the best player – that is Kaminsky – go Badgers.

Lunatic picks:    Wisconsin (30)                      Over (30)

Result:   Wisconsin 79-72                  Spread (2-0    +54)                 Totals (1-1      -3)

 

9:45 pm    Kentucky (-13.5) vs West Virginia                     O/U: 136.5

Does anyone really think West Virginia has a chance here.   West Virginia is talking about how their press is going to stop Kentucky.   Kentucky is a bunch of players who just waiting their time until they go to the NBA – you don’t really think they are going to get flustered by a full court press…….I suspect this gets ugly in a hurry.

Lunatic picks:    Kentucky (30)                      Over (30)

Result:   Kentucky 78-39                  Spread (3-0    +81)                 Totals (1-2      -33)

 

10:17 pm    Arizona (-10.5) vs Xavier                                  O/U: 135.5

I am not as convinced that Arizona will run over Xavier as I am Kentucky.   However, I would have said that Ohio State and Xavier are pretty comparable teams.  And Arizona won that game by 15….   Probably not the best logic – but by now, you all should know how crazy these picks are.

Lunatic picks:    Arizona (30)             Over (30)

Result:   Arizona 68-60                     Spread (3-1    +51)                 Totals (1-3      -63)

 

 

 

 

3rd ROUND GAMES

Sunday’s games

 

12:10 pm    Virginia (-5) vs Michigan State                         O/U: 116.5

This is a tough one for me - Virginia is such a good defensive team.  But the Spartans are so used to playing in tough physical games.  When these teams played in the tournament last year, the Cavaliers were favored but the Spartans won.   I am going to go with the rule of never betting against Tom Izzo in March.

Lunatic picks:    Michigan State (30)                                      Over (30)

Result:   Michigan State 60-54                     Spread (1-0    +27)                 Totals (0-1      -30)

 

2:40 pm    Duke (-9.5) vs San Diego State                           O/U: 128.5

San Diego State needs to win this game through their outstanding defense.  But I think Duke is too good offensively and will take control of this game.

Lunatic picks:    Duke (30)                                                     Over (30)

Result:   Duke 68-49                                      Spread (2-0    +54)                 Totals (0-2      -60)

 

5:15 pm    Kansas (-1.5) vs. Wichita State                           O/U: 134

Wow – you have a #2 seed as a 1.5 point favorite over a #7 seed.   That normally doesn’t happen – then again, Wichita State isn’t your normal #7 seed.  But at a 1.5 point spread, it is basically a pick em game – while I think Wichita State was mis-seeded, I still think Kansas is slightly better – so take the Jayhawks.

Lunatic picks:     Kansas (30)                                      Over (30)

Result:   Wichita State 78-65                        Spread (2-1    +24)                 Totals (1-2      -33)

 

6:10 pm    Oklahoma (-4.5) vs. Dayton                                O/U: 128.5

I am really struggling with this.   This is another confusing line (4.5 points for a #3 against a #11).  Normally, you would take the #3 seed and like your chances.  However, I am not sold on Oklahoma.  And more importantly, Dayton has somehow gone from the last at-large team in the field, to getting a home game and winning against Boise State, to getting a trip just 70 miles away in Columbus to beat Providence.  With this game being in Columbus, it might as well be a home game for Dayton – that changes the odds.

Lunatic picks:     Dayton (30)                                     Under (30)

Result:    Oklahoma 72-66                            Spread (2-2    -6)                    Totals (1-3      -63)

 

7:10 pm    Gonzaga (-6.5) vs. Iowa                                      O/U: 136.5

I just don’t know that I trust Gonzaga to run away with this game.   Iowa is a spiky team that can either score lots of points or fall apart.  Gonzaga has a history of being that top seed that bows out early.   With an extra 6.5 points to play with, I think I will go with the upset.

Lunatic picks:     Iowa (30)                                                     Over (30)

Result:    Gonzaga 87-68                               Spread (2-3    -36)                  Totals (2-3      -36)

 

7:45 pm    Wisconsin (-12) vs. Oregon                                 O/U: 140.5

Wisconsin is the better team – and I would not be surprised if they run away with this game (the way that they did against Ohio State and Purdue in the Big 10 tournament).  But the Pac 12 has not lost yet in the tournament, so considering the fact that I am getting a Pac 12 team with 12 extra points, I have to take the Ducks.

Lunatic picks:     Oregon (30)                                     Over (30)

Result:    Wisconsin 72-65                             Spread (3-3    -9)                    Totals (2-4      -66)

 

8:40 pm    Maryland (PICK) vs West Virginia                  O/U: 137.5

A true pick ‘em game.  Maryland seems to find ways to win games – especially close ones.  And it still feels like the Big 12 has struggled in the tournament.  I am going to take Maryland in a low scoring (and close) game.

Lunatic picks:     Maryland (30)                                              Under (30)

Result:    West Virginia 69-59                      Spread (3-4    -39)                  Totals (3-4      -39)

Lunatic’s Note: To be fair to me, I didn’t forecast that Maryland’s best player would have to leave in the middle of the game due to a head injury.  But then again, I am doing so poorly at this, Maryland probably would have lost simply by my choosing them.

 

9:40 pm    Louisville vs Northern Iowa (-2.5)                     O/U: 116.5

If I was really betting, I would wait to see what happens in the Wichita State / Kansas game.   I just don’t know what to think of Northern Iowa – they have such a great record, and they have beaten some decent teams (Wichita State, Iowa).   So, getting to see how Wichita State does against Kansas would help me to get a better feel on if the MVC schools in the tournament are better than I think they are.  But without that knowledge, I have to take the team I know more about from the ACC – especially if I am also going to get a couple points for a cushion for the Cardinals.

Lunatic picks:      Louisville (30)                                             Over (30)

Result:    Louisville 66-53                              Spread (4-4    -12)                  Totals (4-4      -12)

 

 

3rd ROUND GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

12:10 pm    UCLA (-6) vs UAB                                                        O/U: 133

Remember that comment about the team that gets the most criticized as not being a tournament worthy team – now the Bruins are 6 point favorites to make the Sweet 16.    Only thing that makes me nervous is whether or not they can cover the spread – but past history says don’t bet against the team that everyone says shouldn’t be there.

Lunatic picks:     UCLA (30)                          Under (30)

Result:   UCLA 92-75                       Spread (1-0    +27)                 Totals (0-1     -30)

Note: This shows how sleep deprived I am – I didn’t even go back to look at schedules to notice that these two teams played earlier in the season to the similar result – no one should use my handicapping!!!!

 

2:40 pm    Kentucky (-16.5) vs Cincinnati                           O/U: 118.5

This is a tough one for me.  It feels like the line is just a little bit too high – I have no doubt that Kentucky is going to win.  But I think that most likely the game is going to be in the 8-12 range and Vegas has bumped up the line based on the money coming in on the favorite.   I also have a feeling that the Over is the right pick – Kentucky probably scores 70 or more regardless, which means the Bearcats just need to get to 50 to make this game go over.

Lunatic picks:     Cincinnati (30)                     Over (30)

Result:    Kentucky 64-51                 Spread (2-0    +54)                 Totals (0-2      -60)

 

5:15 pm    Arizona (-9) vs Ohio State                                               O/U: 138.5

Once again, I am going aggressive with the totals.  While part of this is because of the other teams, Ohio State and Arizona combined for 168 points.  Especially with the team expected to lose having a scorer like Russell, I would think there is plenty of points in this game.  Struggling with the spread – since I think Arizona wins.  Just can’t decide if Russell will be able to keep it close.

Lunatic picks:     Ohio State (30)                    Over (30)

Result:    Arizona 73-58                    Spread (2-1    +24)                 Totals (0-3      -90)

 

6:10 pm    Xavier (-7.5) vs. Georgia St                                            O/U: 131.5

I expect that Georgia State is going to slow this game down like they did against Baylor.  But I think that Xavier will have way too much firepower.   If my assumption that GSU only gets to 50, there won’t be enough plays in the game to let Xavier push this game over the total.

Lunatic picks:   Xavier (30)                Under (30) 

Result:    Xavier 75-67                      Spread (3-1    +51)                 Totals (0-4      -120)

 

7:10 pm    Villanova (-9.5) vs. NC State                                          O/U: 139

I suspect that Villanova jumps out to an early lead and never looks back.  NC State has the ability to keep up, but they are spiky.   I don’t have a good feeling on this game at all – but I think I am going to go with Villanova in a high scoring game.  But that won’t stop be from betting big!

Lunatic picks:     Villanova (30)                      Over (30)

Result:    NC State 71-68                  Spread (3-2    +21)                 Totals (0-4-1   -120)

 

7:45 pm    Georgetown vs. Utah (-4.5)                                             O/U: 124.5

Well, this is another of those strange times when Vegas said that the Selection Committee got the seeds wrong.   I think Utah is the better team here – and Georgetown does have a history of relatively early exits in the tournament.   But the way Georgetown and the entire Big East is playing in the tournament gives me pause to get aggressive here.  Oh wait, I am on tilt – there is no pause – bet it all.

Lunatic picks:     Utah (30)                 Over (30)

Result:    Utah 75-64                         Spread (4-2    +48)                 Totals (1-4-1   -93)

 

8:40 pm    North Carolina (-4.5) vs. Arkansas                                O/U: 157

I think this is going to be a track meet.  Arkansas likes to run, and North Carolina will be ready to join them.   And after having to play Harvard and Wofford in the first round who intentionally slowed the game down, the pace of this game should be fast and frenzied.  I don’t feel good enough to lock any of this – but I do think that this game plays into the Tar Heels hands.    Wait a second – I am locking everything – why not this too.

Lunatic picks:     North Carolina (30)             Over (30)

Result:    North Carolina 87-78        Spread (5-2    +75)                 Totals (2-4-1   -66)

 

9:40 pm    Notre Dame (-4.5) vs. Butler                                           O/U: 133.5

Very conflicted here – but really looking forward to watching this game!!!  I felt that Notre Dame was the best team in the bottom half of the Midwest bracket – and so with a 4.5 point line, this should feel like a steal.  But that is exactly what makes me nervous – and it doesn’t help that the team the Irish are playing are known for playing the role of Cinderella in March.  So – do you go with the team you think is better and jump on a low line.   Or do you go with the rule of never bet against Butler in March.   I am going to go with the Irish – but stay away from going big.   Who I am kidding – have to keep going big!!!!!

Lunatic picks:  Notre Dame (30)                     Over (30)

Result:    Notre Dame 67-64             Spread (5-3    +45)                 Totals (2-5-1   -96)

 

 

2nd ROUND GAMES

Friday’s games

 

12:15 pm    Kansas (-10.5) vs. New Mexico State                           O/U: 132

I would expect Kansas to have this well under control – but I have no confidence, especially since it looks like New Mexico St slows the game down from games against Baylor, Wichita St and Colorado St.  And when Thursday brings a lot of upsets, Friday tends to go towards the chalk. 

Lunatic picks:     Kansas (10)                          Under (20)

Result:   Kansas 75-56                                  Spread (1-0    +9)                   Totals (1-0      +18)

 

12:40 pm    Michigan State (-5.5) vs. Georgia                                 O/U: 126

I really like the Spartans in this game.  Never bet against Tom Izzo in March.  Line seems very low, since Georgia averages 132 points and Michigan St averages 135.

Lunatic picks:     Michigan St (20)                  Over (30)

Result:    Michigan St 70-63             Spread (2-0    +27)                 Totals (2-0      +45)

 

1:40 pm    Northern Iowa (-6) vs. Wyoming                                   O/U: 110.5

This game looks like it could be a first team to 50.  And because of that, I am not going to count on the spread being large.  While I think Northern Iowa is the better team, I suspect that with the potential pace of play, Wyoming keeps this one close.

Lunatic picks:     Wyoming (10)                     Under (20)

Result:    Northern Iowa 71-54                    Spread (2-1    +17)                 Totals (2-1      +25)

 

2:10 pm    West Virginia (-4.5) vs. Buffalo                                      O/U: 149.5

A little nervous about the history behind the 5-12 matchup.  But something tells me that you have to pick West Virginia in this game with the line being so low.  This line also feels a little high.  That being said, after the completely dismal performance by the Big 12 teams on Thursday, I don’t feel real good about this game.

Lunatic picks:   West Virginia (10)                 Under (20) 

Result:    West Virginia 68-62                      Spread (3-1    +26)                 Total (3-1        +43)

 

2:45 pm    Wichita State (-5.5) vs. Indiana                                      O/U: 139.5

Going to go with my heart on this game.  WSU plays this game at their pace and it rattles the Hoosiers.

Lunatic picks:     Wichita St (20)                    Under (20)

Result:    Wichita State 81-76                       Spread (3-2    +6)                   Total (3-2        +23)

 

3:10 pm    Virginia (-16.5) vs. Belmont                                            O/U: 124

Belmont is better than people realize – but I am expecting Virginia to dominate this game.

Lunatic picks:     Virginia (10)                        Under (20)

Result:    Virginia 79-67                                Spread (3-3    -4)                    Total (3-3        +3)

 

4:10 pm    Louisville (-8) vs. UC Irvine                                            O/U: 124.5

I like the Cardinals in this one – don’t think UCI will be able to hang with Louisville.

Lunatic picks:     Louisville (20)                     Over (20)

Result:    Louisville 57-55                              Spread (3-4    -24)                  Total (3-4        -17)

 

4:40 pm    Maryland (-5) vs. Valparaiso                                          O/U: 124

I just don’t know what to think about Valparaiso – they haven’t played anyone.   I am going to assume that Maryland is too much  for Valpo.

Lunatic picks:  Maryland (30)                         Over (20)

Result:    Maryland 65-62                             Spread (3-5    -54)                  Total (4-4        +1)

 

6:50 pm    Oregon (-1.5) vs. Oklahoma State                                  O/U: 137

I could see the Ducks trying to turn this into a track meet.   And the Big 12 seems to be down this year. 

Lunatic picks:     Oregon (30)                         Over (20)

Result:   Oregon 79-73                                  Spread (4-5    -27)                  Total (5-4        +19)

 

7:10pm    Duke (-22) vs Robert Morris                                           O/U: 143.5

I think this has a possibility to have the same feel as the Oregon game.  Expecting the Blue Devils to roll.

Lunatic picks:     Duke (10)                            Over (30)

Result:   Duke 85-56                          Spread (5-5    -18)                  Total (5-5        -11)

 

7:20 pm    Iowa (-2.5) vs. Davidson                                                  O/U: 145.5

I expect this game to look a lot like the VCU / Ohio State game.  Iowa is going to probably have just a little bit too much firepower.

Lunatic picks:     Iowa (20)                 Under (10)

Result:    Iowa 83-52                         Spread (6-5    0)                     Total (6-5        -2)

 

7:27 pm    Oklahoma (-13) vs. Albany                                             O/U: 128.5

Albany played pretty tough against Providence and the Big 12 struggles have been discussed.

Lunatic picks:     Albany (30)             Under (20)

Result:    Oklahoma 69-60                            Spread (7-5    +27)                 Total (6-6        -22)

 

9:20 pm    Wisconsin (-19.5) vs. Coastal Carolina                          O/U: 129.5

Wisconsin should handle this game – so it is really just a question about the spread.  Coastal Carolina played UCLA and Ole Miss – and kept it below this spread, why not take them to cover.

Lunatic picks:     Coastal Carolina (10)           Under (20)

Result:    Wisconsin 86-72                             Spread (8-5    +36)                 Total (6-7        -42)

 

9:40 pm    San Diego State (-3.5) vs. St. John’s                               O/U: 120

San Diego State is a really good defensive team – and I think St. Johns is missing one of their starters.

Lunatic picks:     San Diego St (30)                Under (20)

Result:    San Diego State 76-64                   Spread (9-5    +63)                 Total (6-8        -62)

9:50 pm    Gonzaga (-18) vs. North Dakota State                           O/U: 128.5

North Dakota St hasn’t done well against top competitions this year – so while I am not on the Gonzaga bandwagon, I have to give them the nod.

Lunatic picks:     Gonzaga (10)                       Under (20)

Result:   Gonzaga 86-76                                Spread (9-6    +53)                 Total (6-9        -82)

 

9:57 pm    Providence (-3) vs. Dayton                                              O/U: 131

I really liked how the Big East looked yesterday.  And I think there will be some hangover from the First Four game…..

Lunatic picks:     Providence (30)                   Over (30)

Result:    Dayton 66-53                                 Spread (9-7    +23)                 Totals (6-10    -112)

 

 

 

 

2nd ROUND GAMES

Thursday’s games

 

12:15 pm    Norte Dame (-12.5) vs. Northeastern                           O/U: 140

Notre Dame is running hot from their run in the ACC Tournament – I think that they will continue to stay hot and score a lot of points against Northeastern.

Lunatic picks:     Notre Dame (30)                 Over (20)

Result:   Notre Dame 69-65                          Spread (0-1    -30)                  Total (0-1        -20)

 

12:40 pm    Iowa St (-13.5) vs UAB                                                 O/U: 145

I expect this game to be played at a very fast pace – with Iowa State running away.

Lunatic picks:     Iowa St (20)            Over (30)

Result:    UAB 60-59                                     Spread (0-2    -50)                  Total (0-2        -50)

 

1:40 pm    Baylor (-9) vs Georgia State                                           O/U: 127

Georgia State got blown out by Iowa State early in the season – a team that Baylor swept.  While transitive theory doesn’t always hold, I think Baylor is going to be way too much for Georgia State – a team that lost by double digits to the only two tournament teams they played.

Lunatic picks:     Baylor (30)              Under (10)

Result:    Georgia St 57-56                            Spread (0-3    -80)                  Total (1-2        -41)

 

2:10 pm    Arizona (-23.5) vs Texas Southern                                 O/U: 134

I hate picking the 1-16 games.  While Texas Southern did have that surprising victory over Michigan State, they also were crushed by Gonzaga, Baylor, SMU, Indiana, Florida, and Eastern Washington.   I have to figure if Arizona was so dominating in the Pac 12 championship against Oregon, they can do the same against Texas Southern.   Just no confidence because it is hard to determine if a team up 15-20 points will put on the breaks when they feel they have the game won.

Lunatic picks:     Arizona (10)                        Under (10)

Result:    Arizona 93-72                                Spread (0-4    -90)                  Total (1-3        -51)

 

2:45 pm    Butler vs Texas (-2)                                                         O/U: 123.5

Using many measures, including ASM suggests that Texas is an excellent upset pick here.  However, Texas also has had trouble in big games hanging on to a lead.   Meanwhile, Butler has a history of doing amazing things in March.  I think Butler is just a more complete team and has a better record of winning close games.

Lunatic picks:     Butler (20)                           Over (20)

Result:    Butler 56-48                                   Spread (1-4    -72)                  Total (1-4        -71)

 

3:10 pm    SMU (-3.5) vs UCLA                                                      O/U: 133.5

Every year, there is a team where the media goes crazy stating that they don’t make the tournament.  Then, that team inevitably wins their first game in the tournament.  In comes the UCLA Bruins – which managed to have the committee criticized for their selection by the CBS announcers immediately when their name was announced.   And UCLA looked pretty good against Arizona in the Pac 12 tournament….

Lunatic picks:   UCLA (20)                            Under (20) 

Result:    UCLA 60-59                                  Spread (2-4    -54)                  Total (2-4        -53)

 

4:10 pm    Xavier (-3) vs Ole Miss                                                    O/U: 145

After watching Ole Miss score 62 points on BYU in a single half, I don’t know how I could do anything but pick the Rebels in a track meet.
Lunatic picks:   Ole Miss (20)             Over (20)

Result:    Xavier 76-57                                  Spread (2-5    -74)                  Total (2-5        -73)

 

 

4:40 pm    VCU vs Ohio State (-4)                                                   O/U: 136

You don’t often see a 10 seed as a 4 point Vegas favorite over a 7 seed.  But I can understand why.   D’Angelo Russell is amazing – and I don’t know that anyone can stop him.  I want to pick the local team, but I have a suspicion that Ohio State will be able to handle the VCU Havoc defense – and it will lead to the Buckeyes winning.

Lunatic picks:     Ohio State (10)        Over (30)

Result:    Ohio St 75-72                                 Spread (2-6    -84)                  Total (3-5        -46)

 

6:50 pm    Villanova (-23) vs. Lafayette                                           O/U: 146.5

I expect Villanova to score a lot of points in this game – my only question is whether or not Lafayette can score enough to keep it within 23…..   I expect the pace of this game to be fast – so I will cautiously take Villanova and the over.

Lunatic picks:     Villanova (10)          Over (10)

Result:    Villanova 93-52                              Spread (3-6    -75)                  Total (3-6        -56)

 

7:10 pm    Cincinnati vs Purdue (-2)                                                O/U: 118.5

Have to take the Boilers – have to not be confident (all my locks lose).    But I am suspecting what they have done so many times this year – they will fall behind in the first half, and then have a huge surge in the second half led by AJ Hammonds – and then scare the heck out of me as they go to the free throw line.  And after all of this, I will pick my Boilers.

Lunatic picks:     Purdue (10)              Over (20)

Result:    Cincinnati 66-65                            Spread(3-7     -85)                  Total (4-6        -38)

 

7:20 pm    UNC (-10.5) vs. Harvard                                                O/U: 133

I expect the Tar Heels to push the tempo of this game and force Harvard to play at a pace they are uncomfortable with.  I will go with UNC.

Lunatic picks:     UNC (20)                Over (20)

Result:    UNC 67-65                                     Spread(3-8     -105)                Total (4-7        -58)

 

7:27 pm    Utah (-6.5) vs. Stephen F Austin                                    O/U: 131.5

I think that Stephen F Austin is much better than people realize – and I still remember what is basically the same exact team that upset VCU last year.  I am going to pick the upset here.

Lunatic picks:     Stephen F Austin (10)                     Under (10)

Result:     Utah 57-50                                    Spread(3-9     -115)                Total(5-7         -49)

 

9:20 pm    NC State (-2) vs. LSU                                                      O/U: 140.5

To me, this depends on which LSU team shows up, the one that went 6-1 against tournament teams – with the only loss being a 2 point loss to #1 Kentucky.   Or the team that lost 2 out of 3 games to Auburn.Lunatic picks:     NC State also is inconsistent – but they have some of the most impressive wins – beating Duke, UNC and Louisville.  Not sure which one here – so I am going to side on the upset.

Lunatic picks:      LSU (10)                             Under (10)

Result:     NC State 66-65                             Spread(4-9     -106)                Total(6-7         -40)

 

9:40 pm    Kentucky (-34.5) vs Hampton                                        O/U: 134.5

This might be the most points I have seen in a long time – and yet, I am still going to take Kentucky.  Hampton’s only game against a top 50 RPI team was against Iowa – where they lost by 34.  And Kentucky is better than Iowa.  Not to mention that Kentucky’s two games against teams with Hampton’s RPIs were 40 and 58 point victories.  It’s a lot of points so not going to be confident, but I will take the #1 team.

Lunatic picks:     Kentucky (10)                     Under (20)

Result:    Kentucky 79-56                             Spread(4-10)  -116                 Totals(6-8       -60)

 

9:50 pm    Arkansas (-7.5) vs Wofford                                            O/U: 136.5

This is another dreaded 5-12 matchup.  Arkansas is going to want to run – Wofford will want to slow the game down.  My gut says that Arkansas will take this game – but I see a lot of variety of options of how this game plays out.

Lunatic picks:    Arkansas (10)           Under (10)

Result:    Arkansas 56-53                              Spread (4-11   -126)               Totals (7-8      -51)

 

9:57 pm    Georgetown (-7.5) vs. Eastern Washington                  O/U: 146

Eastern Washington has a dangerous feel in this game.  I think Georgetown probably hangs on to this game – but I see enough chance of an upset here that I would not take the Hoyas to win by 7.5.

Lunatic picks:     Eastern Washington (20)                 Over (20)

Result:    Georgetown 84-74                         Spread (4-12    -146)              Totals (8-8      -33)

 

 

 

PLAY IN GAMES

Wednesday’s games

 

6:40 pm    North Florida (-2.5) vs. Robert Morris                          O/U: 139

I am totally biased in this game – but I also think I am totally right.   I remember North Florida coming to West Lafayette and knocking off my Boilers.   Then, as I read bracketologists complaining about the bad loss on Purdue’s record, that North Florida was quietly 12-2 and leading their conference.  This is a good basketball team – and I expect them to make their first trip to the NCAAs a memorable one by coming away with a victory on Wednesday. 

Lunatic picks:     North Florida (30)               Over (20)

Result:    Robert Morris 81-77                                 Spread            (1-2      -41)                  Totals              (2-1      +6)

 

9:10 pm    Dayton (-4) vs. Boise State                                              O/U: 127

As I look closer at these two teams, I believe that they are relatively equals.  But Dayton has with them the biggest advantage in all of college basketball – home court.   I still can’t believe that the committee decided to put Dayton in the Last 4 in when they knew it would give them a home game.  I guess it is fairer than moving the 5th team in to the play-in, but still feels like the cards are stacked against Boise State.   Dayton gets a home game while Boise State has to fly across most of the country to get to the game.  I expect the Flyers to win.

Lunatic picks:      Dayton (30)                        Over (20)

Result:     Dayton 56-55                                            Spread            (1-3      -71)                  Totals              (2-2      -14)

 

PLAY IN GAMES

Tuesday’s games

 

6:40 pm    Manhattan (-9) vs. Hampton                                          O/U: 140

I can’t believe I am going to do this – but I am going to take the only team with a non-winning record in the field.  That’s right.   I am that crazy.   While I think that Manhattan might win this game, I don’t think that they are going to run away with it.   I also figure both teams are going to come out a little bit cold, which will limit the overall scoring.

Lunatic picks:     Hampton (10)    Under (20)

Result:     Hampton 74-64                                         Spread            (1-0      +9)                   Totals              (1-0            +18)

 

9:10 pm    BYU (-4) vs. Ole Miss                                                      O/U: 157.5

This is a tough game for me to pick.   I have watched a couple games where Hawes and Collinsworth from BYU have taken over the game.  I also know that Ole Miss struggled to end the season – so not sure what team will show up, the one that almost upset Kentucky, or the one that lost to Vanderbilt and South Carolina to end the season.  I will take the Cougars to win – and lock the under.  While I know BYU likes to run, less than half their games score 157.5 – and Ole Miss only hit that total 4 times this season. 

Lunatic picks:     BYU (20)    Under (30)

Result:     Ole Miss 96-92                                          Spread            (1-1      -11)                  Totals              (1-1      -12)