The Lunatic’s Insane Handicapping:

The Lunatic has been stomped so badly over the last few years, and so, he has felt it necessary to show that he has some talent in picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines.   Because if I can’t beat half the field and can’t pick the field close to the level that the experts do, it is clearly obvious that I can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers. 

 

Lunatic Disclosure #1: This is for recreational purposes only.  The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!

Lunatic Disclosure #2: In case you haven’t read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you.  I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.

 

To give myself a chance (since obviously, some of the closer games, I would just normally leave alone – however, what fun would it be if I didn’t pick every game), I tier my imaginary bets into 10 (no clue), 20 (some confidence), 30 (closest to a lock).  Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit my no clues……    Also, since there are so many first round games, I will probably be brief.

 

Following the confidence of a highly successful 2013 in handicapping the games, I lost mythical money in both 2014 and 2015.   That should probably give enough context to anyone thinking this might be useful for anything other than good laughs and entertainment – not to mention be a reminder that the folks in Vegas make money on this for a reason….

 

EDITOR NOTE: If I have time, I might pick all the first round games before the tournament starts – if I do this, I might make modifications to the handicapping on Thursday night based on the games (since sometimes the Thursday games expose some things about the strength of a conference that helps predict the Friday games).   For right now, I have picked the 4 play-in games…..

 

 

DAY

Vs. SPREAD

Vs OVER/UNDER

Play In Games

2-2    +15

1-3       -31

Round 2 – Thursday

10-6   +45

7-9       -43

Round 2 – Friday

11-4-1   +103

10-5-1    +60

Round 3 – Saturday

5-3     +42

2-5-1     -73

Round 3 – Sunday

2-5-1    -55

3-5        -17

Sweet 16 – Thursday

1-3        -32

1-3        -13

Sweet 16 – Friday

2-2    +6

1-3    -61

Elite 8

1-3     -63 

2-2     +7

Final Four

 

 

OVERALL    (-110) 

34-28-2 +61

27-35-2   -171

 

 

 

 

 

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Monday’s games

 

Editor Note: I have already lost – but I might as well keep trying to get back as much as possible – as any compulsive gambler would do.

 

9:19  pm    #1 North Carolina (-2) vs #2 Villanova                                               O/U: 149.5

I am amazed at how good Villanova has played this tournament.  Scoring margin suggests that I should take the Wildcats.   But it feels really wrong to be cheering for UNC and picking Villanova.   UNC was the preseason #1 team, and have multiple ways to score.  I am going to have to go with the Tar Heels.

Lunatic picks:    North Carolina(30)             Over (30)

Result:     

 

 

FINAL 4 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

Editor Note: Being down 110 with only 3 games to go, I am going to do what any compulsive gambler will do.   Lets bet my top bet of 30 on everything in a desperate attempt to get back to even.    Do not take the 30 as being a lock – it is a desparate attempt to end up ahead.

 

6:09 pm    #2 Villanova (-2.5) vs #2 Oklahoma                                         O/U: 144.5

So, I made this mistake in the Oregon game.  I thought Buddy Hield was the best player on the court but felt Oregon was the better team.   Buddy Hield is still the best player on the court.   And the Sooners beat Villanova 78-55 in December in Hawaii.  So, I get to take a team that won by 23 earlier in the season, with possibly the best player in college basketball, and you are going to give me points.   Tell me where I can sign up!!!!!

Lunatic picks:    Oklahoma(30)             Under (30)

Result:      Villanova 95-51                   Spread (0-1   -30)            Totals (0-1    -30)

 

8:49 pm    #1 North Carolina (-9.5) vs #10 Syracuse                                O/U: 144

This game is a little tougher to figure out.   The Tar Heels beat Syracuse twice this year (84-73 at Syracuse, and 75-70 at home).  The talent level tells me to pick the Tar Heels.   But you aren’t just picking which team will win – in this case, they need to win by double digits.  At the end of the day, this decision will come from emotion instead of basketball knowledge.   I just can not pick Syracuse – they have been crushing my soul that they got this far, and I can’t put my mythical money on them keeping the game close.  I must root for the Tar Heels to get ahead early like Gonzaga and Virginia did, and this time, there will be no late run for the Orange.   Go Tar Heels!!!!!!!

Lunatic picks:    North Carolina (30)                Over (30)

Result:      North Carolina 83-66         Spread (1-1      -3)           Totals (1-1     -3)

 

 

ELITE 8 GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

6:09 pm    #1 Oregon (-1) vs #2 Oklahoma                                                O/U: 151.5

I think that Buddy Hield might be the best player on the court.  But with a 1 point spread, I am going to go with my initial handicapping.   I was very impressed before the tournament about how Oregon won the Pac 12.   And I also was impressed with how the Ducks took out Oregon.   Add into it that the stadium in Anaheim should be a pretty pro-Pac 12, and that leads me to take the Ducks.

Lunatic picks:    Oregon (30)             Over  (10)

Result:      Oklahoma 80-68              Spread (0-1 -30)           Totals (0-1   -10)

 

8:49 pm    #1 Kansas (-2.5) vs #2 Villanova                                   O/U: 145.5

I was really impressed with how Villanova destroyed Miami FL.   But once again, I have to go back to my initial handicapping.  I gave Kansas the #1 seed in the entire tournament for a reason.   And with the spread being only 2.5 points, I have to take the Jayhawks

Lunatic picks:    Kansas (30)                Over (20)

Result:       Villanova 64-59            Spread (0-2   -60)          Totals (0-2  -30)

 

 

SWEET 16 GAMES

Friday’s games

 

7:10 pm    #1 Virginia (-5) vs #4 Iowa State                                   O/U: 141

Virginia has spent a good amount of time in the top 5 for a reason – think I have to take the Cavaliers now that the region doesn’t have their nemesis waiting for them.

Lunatic picks:    Virginia (30)                       Under (30)

Result:      Virginia 84-71        Spread (1-0   +27)           Total (0-1  -30)

 

7:27 pm    #6 Notre Dame (-1) vs #7 Wisconsin                             O/U: 131.5

This game has me torn, as both teams won their last game on last second shots.  With Wisconsin’s defense, it is likely that this game comes down to whoever has the ball last.   Can’t let myself pick the Irish – go Badgers

Lunatic picks:    Wisconsin (10)        Under (10)

Result:      Notre Dame 61-56          Spread (1-1     +17)      Total (1-1    -21)

 

9:40 pm    #10 Syracuse vs #11 Gonzaga (-4.5)                              O/U: 135

One of the best stories has been the mid-majors.   Why not go with the Zags another game.

Lunatic picks:     Gonzaga (20)          Over (20)

Result:     Syracuse 63-60            Spread (1-2        -3)         Total  (1-2    -41)

 

9:57 pm    #1 North Carolina (-5.5) vs #5 Indiana                        O/U: 158.5

I felt the Tar Heels and Spartans were the best teams in the country this year – can’t move away from that pick now.   Going to go low on it because the line makes me a little nervous, since the Hoosiers definitely have the talent to keep this game close.

Lunatic picks:    North Carolina (10)             Under (20)

Result:    North Carolina 101-86         Spread (2-2    +6)      Total (1-3    -61)

 

SWEET 16 GAMES

Thursday’s games

 

7:10 pm    #2 Villanova (-4) vs #3 Miami FL                                 O/U: 140

Before Villanova’s victory against struggling Iowa, the Wildcats only victory against a tournament at-large team outside of the Big East was St. Joseph’s and Temple.  Miami not only had an impressive win against Wichita St, but also have beaten the Virginia team that the Wildcats lost to earlier in the season.   Villanova might pull this off, but the numbers suggest that the Hurricanes will win this game.

Lunatic picks:     Miami FL (20)                   Under (20)

Result:      Villanova 92-69      Spread (0-1   -20)     Total (0-1  -20)

 

7:37 pm    #2 Oklahoma (-2.5) vs #3 Texas A&M                         O/U: 146.5

By now, all of us know that Texas A&M came back by 12 points with less than a minute to play against Northern Iowa.  So, I can’t decide whether I should believe that they are on borrowed time, or if they really are destined to go far.   Considering my success of my crazy picks at the moment, I will choose that they are destined.

Lunatic picks:      Texas A&M (10)               Under (30)

Result:     Oklahoma 77-63        Spread (0-2   -30)     Total (1-1   +7)

 

9:40 pm    #1 Kansas (-6.5) vs #5 Maryland                                  O/U: 143.5

Maryland has the talent to hang with the Jayhawks.  But in the games the Terrapins played against the top 6 teams on their schedule, they only were able to win one of those games against Purdue.   The line prevents me from going big, but I have to pick Kansas – who looks extremely dominant at the moment.

Lunatic picks:     Kansas (20)            Over (10)

Result:      Kansas 79-63          Spread (1-2   -12)     Total (1-2    -3)

 

 

10:07 pm    #1 Oregon (-3) vs #4 Duke                                           O/U: 156.5

Once again, I am going to stick with my original crazy picks here.   Oregon finally showed a little bit of weakness against St. Joseph’s.   And Duke has the ability to outscore anyone.  And the same issue that impacts Villanova effects Oregon.   All of the strength of Oregon’s resume is from beating the best of the Pac 12 – who are now all eliminated from the tournament.    I am going to predict the success of the ACC will continue.

Lunatic picks:     Duke (20)               Over (10)

Result:      Oregon 82-68         Spread (1-3      -32)        Total (1-3    -13)

 

 

2nd ROUND GAMES

Sunday’s games

 

12:10 pm    #2 Villanova (-6.5) vs #7 Iowa                                     O/U: 145.5

My gut feeling on this is that this is a good matchup for Villanova.   Not sure that an overtime victory over Temple qualifies at getting out of the slump the Hawkeyes are on.   So I will go with Villanova.

Lunatic picks:    Villanova (20)         Under (20)

Result:   Villanova 87-68               Spread (1-0  +18)       Totals (0-1   -20)

 

2:40 pm    #6 Notre Dame (-1) vs #14 Stephen F Austin               O/U: 140.5

Wow – the crazy lines continue.  A 14 seed is almost the favorite.  However, if they are going to make this basically a pick-em game, I have to take the Irish to win.   I don’t think Notre Dame will turn the ball over like West Virginia did – and that will be the difference.

Lunatic picks:    Notre Dame (30)     Under (20)

Result:    Notre Dame 76-75         Spread (1-0-1  +18)   Totals (0-2   -40)

 

5:15 pm    #2 Oklahoma (-6.5) vs #10 VCU                                    O/U: 147.5

I think this will be a pretty exciting defensive game.  But Oklahoma has the best player on the court – I expect Buddy Hield takes control of this game.

Lunatic picks:     Oklahoma  (20)      Under (20)

Result:    Oklahoma 85-81           Spread (1-1-1   -2)     Totals (0-3   -60)

 

6:10 pm    #10 Syracuse (-6) vs #15 Middle Tennessee St            O/U: 131

Middle Tennessee State played the game of their lives against Michigan State.   Syracuse went from being a team that many believed shouldn’t be in the field to a 6 point favorite to get to the Sweet 16.   Both teams feel like they are playing with house money.   But Dayton feels like a better version of the MTSU team, and Syracuse crushed them – so I am going to go big on the Orangemen.

Lunatic picks:    Syracuse (30)                      Under (10)

Result:    Syracuse 75-50           Spread (2-1-1    +25)      Totals (1-3   -51)

 

7:10 pm    #5 Maryland (-7) vs #13 Hawaii                                                O/U: 144

So, I would have said Maryland and California are pretty comparible teams.   I would also say that South Dakota St and Hawaii were pretty comparible.   Maryland over beat SDSU by 5, while Hawaii upset Cal by 11.   That suggests that the best thing would be to take the Rainbows and the points.

Lunatic picks:    Hawaii (20)         Over (10)

Result:      Maryland 73-60            Spread (2-2-1    +5)    Totals (1-4    -61)

 

7:40 pm    #3 Texas A&M (-6) vs #11 Northern Iowa                   O/U: 127

Northern Iowa keeps figuring out how to win close games.   But you have to wonder how many times you can do that before it catches up to you.   While I want to root for the underdog, my bias towards Wichita State got the best of me in the other MVC game.  Texas A&M came in against a Green Bay team that is better than people realize and destroyed them.  Something tells me to take the favorite.

Lunatic picks:    Texas A&M (10)                 Over (30)

Result:    Texas A&M 92-88       Spread (2-3-1     -5)     Totals (2-4     -34)

 

8:40 pm    #2 Xavier (-4) vs #7 Wisconsin                                      O/U: 136

Wisconsin somehow managed to win their game by only scoring 47 points.  I realize that the Badgers play good defense as well does their opponent Pitt.   I have to figure that Xavier will shoot the ball a little bit better that the Panthers, and since I am only giving up 4 points….

Lunatic picks:    Xavier (20)                          Under (30)

Result:    Wisconsin 66-63           Spread (2-4-1    -25)      Totals (3-4      -7)

9:40 pm    #1 Oregon (-6.5) vs #8 St. Joseph’s                               O/U: 157

I think St. Joseph’s is a really good team, but the Oregon Ducks look like a really dominant team.   I still remember the Ducks running a very good Utah team out of the arena in the Pac 12 Championship – if I can take the Ducks and only give up 6.5 points, I feel like I have to take that bet.

Lunatic picks:    Oregon (30)                         Over (10)

Result:    Oregon 69-64            Spread (2-5-1    -55)           Totals (3-5      -17)

 

 

2nd ROUND GAMES

Saturday’s games

 

12:10 pm    #3 Miami FL vs #11 Wichita St (-2)                           O/U: 131.5

You have to love it when Vegas says the 11 seed is a 2 point favorite over the 3 seed.  What’s crazier is I am going to go with the Vegas oddsmakers and take the 11 seed.  After watching the Shockers really crush Arizona, and knowing how this crazy tournament has been going, I have to go with Wichita St.

Lunatic picks:    Wichita St (10)        Under (20)

Result:   Miami FL 65-57         Spread (0-1    -10)             Totals (1-0  +18)

 

2:40 pm    #4 Duke (-6) vs #12 Yale                                                O/U: 146

Duke got their scare with UNC-Wilmington.   And they eventually pulled away.   And while Yale did a fantastic job against Baylor, I think the Blue Devils are not going to overlook the Bulldogs.

Lunatic picks:    Duke (20)                Over (30)

Result:    Duke 71-64            Spread (1-1    +8)                  Totals (1-1    -12)

 

5:15 pm    #4 Kentucky (-3) vs #5 Indiana                                                 O/U: 155

It is ridiculous that the Big 10 regular season champions are playing the SEC champions in the second round.  Despite the fantastic season that Yogi Ferrell has had for the Hoosiers, I think that Kentucky has just a little bit more talent on their lineup.

Lunatic picks:     Kentucky (10)        Over (10)

Result:    Indiana   73-67         Spread (1-2    -2)              Totals (1-2   -22)

 

6:10 pm    #4 Iowa St (-6.5) vs #12 Little Rock                              O/U: 145

Purdue had Little Rock down 13 before letting them back in the game.  But the Boilers had a bad trend this season of letting teams back into games after getting a double digit lead.  I suspect that Iowa State will not give that lead up if they get it.  I am going to take the Cyclones.

Lunatic picks:    Iowa St (20)             Over (30)

Result:   Iowa St 78-61           Spread (2-2      +16)          Totals (1-3   -52)

 

7:10 pm    #1 Virginia (-7.5) vs #9 Butler                                       O/U: 130

Does the fact that the Cavaliers path through the region has just gotten easier by Michigan State losing cause Virginia to overlook the Bulldogs?   While I don’t think that will happen, it is a little scary that only 3 of the top 8 seeds in the Midwest region survived the first round.  Add into that the irrational memory of never bet against Butler in March, and I have to take the points.

Lunatic picks:    Butler (10)           Over (10)

Result:   Virginia 77-69         Spread (2-3      +6)          Totals (2-3     -43)

 

7:45 pm    #1 Kansas (-8) vs #9 Connecticut                                  O/U: 140

This is tough for me because 8 points is a lot to give up to the Connecticut Huskies.  But Kansas is the consensus #1 team in the country and are loaded with talent.   I have to take the Jayhawks.

Lunatic picks:    Kansas (20)             Over (20)

Result:   Kansas 73-61         Spread (3-3      +24)        Totals (2-4    -63)

 

8:40 pm    #3 Utah (PICKEM) vs #11 Gonzaga                             O/U: 140

This is the perfect example of how messed up the seeds are.  We have two 3 vs 11 games, and the 11 seed is either favored or an even pick-em bet in both.  And after watching Gonzaga beat Seton Hall, I think once again I am going to go with the oddsmakers and take Gonzaga.

Lunatic picks:    Gonzaga (10)           Under (10)

Result:    Gonzaga 82-59      Spread (4-3    +33)       Totals (2-5    -73)

9:40 pm    #1 North Carolina (-9.5) vs #9 Providence                   O/U: 151

This is a lot of points to give up, but the Tar Heels are clearly the more talented team.  I would expect that UNC wins this game, and despite the high spread, I think there is more of a chance for a double digit win here.

Lunatic picks:    North Carolina (10)             Over (10)

Result:     North Carolina 85-66       Spread (5-3     +42)          Totals (2-5-1   -73)

 

 

 

 

 

 

1st ROUND GAMES

Friday’s games

 

12:15 pm    #7 Dayton (-1) vs #10 Syracuse                                   O/U: 131

Many experts and one crazed person believed that Syracuse shouldn’t be a part of the field of 64 – you know what happens when teams get a gift and are invited to the dance.

Lunatic picks:     Syracuse (20)         Over (20)

Result:   Syracuse 70-51             Spread (1-0    +18)      Totals (0-1    -20)

 

12:40 pm    #2 Villanova (-17.5) vs UNC-Asheville                       O/U: 141.5

UNC-Asheville’s one game against a tournament at-large team was Texas A&M – where they lost by 28……

Lunatic picks:     Villanova (20)        Over (20)

Result:    Villanova 86-56          Spread (2-0     +36)     Totals (1-1    -2)

 

1:30 pm    #7 Oregon St vs #10 VCU (-4.5)                                    O/U: 141

Have to go with the hometown team here – Go Rams!

Lunatic picks:     VCU (20)                Over (30)

Result:     VCU 75-67               Spread (3-0     +54)          Totals (2-1   +25)

 

2:00 pm    #4 California (-7.5) vs #13 Hawaii                                O/U: 143

This game caught my eye where I thought the Rainbows might be able to pull an upset.  I wouldn’t go big here – but I am going to go with the underdog and the points.

Lunatic picks:   Hawaii (10)              Over (10)

Result:    Hawaii 77-66            Spread (4-0     +63)          Totals (2-1-1   +25)

 

2:45 pm    #2 Michigan St (-17.5) vs Middle Tennessee St           O/U: 141.5

I think the Spartans win this game – but knowing the Middle Tennessee St only lost by single digits to some good mid-majors like South Dakota St and VCU makes me take the 17.5 points

Lunatic picks:   Middle Tennessee St (10)    Under (20) 

Result:    Middle Tennessee St  90-81          Spread (5-0    +72)     Totals (2-2-1   +5)

 

3:10 pm    #7 Iowa (-7.5) vs Temple                                                O/U: 140

I think that getting out of conference is exactly what will help Iowa get back on track.  It is hard to believe the Hawkeyes at one point in the season were in the Top 5 teams – so the talent is there

Lunatic picks:     Iowa (10)                Under (30)

Result:    Iowa 72-70               Spread (5-1    +62)         Totals (2-3-1    -25)

 

4:00 pm    #2 Oklahoma (-14) vs #15 CSU Bakersfield                O/U: 139

Oklahoma should be able to run wild in this game.   CSU Bakersfield is 2-7 against the top 186 RPI.

Lunatic picks:     Oklahoma (30)            Over (20)

Result:    Oklahoma 82-68       Spread (5-1-1    +62)       Totals (3-3-1   -7)

 

4:30 pm    #5 vs Maryland (-9.5) vs South Dakota St                   O/U: 145

I am too nervous to go against the magical 12 seeds at this point – take the points.

Lunatic picks:     South Dakota St (10)       Under (20)

Result:    Maryland 79-74       Spread (6-1-1    +71)        Totals (3-4-1     -27)

 

6:50 pm    #7 Wisconsin (EVEN) vs #10 Pittsburgh                      O/U: 131

My Big 10 bias says to take Wisconsin in this game – go Badgers!

Lunatic picks:     Wisconsin (20)       Over (30)

Result:    Wisconsin 47-43      Spread (7-1-1    +89)       Totals (3-5-1    -57)

 

7:10pm    #3 West Virginia (-7.5) vs #14 Stephen F Austin         O/U: 146.5

Stephen F Austin is a much better team than people realize – but I anticipate that West Virginia will be able to run away at the end.

Lunatic picks:      West Virginia (20)                        Under (20)

Result:   Stephen F Austin 70-56     Spread (7-2-1    +69)     Totals (4-5-1    -39)

 

7:20 pm    #3 Texas A&M (-13) vs #14 Green Bay                                    O/U: 155

Should be a lot of scoring in this one.   I think the Aggies win, but 13 points is a high enough line that it becomes a coin flip.  So, I will take the little guy.

Lunatic picks:     Green Bay (10)                Over (10)

Result:    Texas A&M 92-65      Spread (7-3-1    +59)          Totals (5-5-1   -30)

 

7:27 pm    #1 Oregon (-23) vs #16 Holy Cross                               O/U: 133.5

So far, the other #1 seeds have been dominant – no reason to expect the Ducks not to be able to handle Holy Cross.

Lunatic picks:      Oregon (20)                  Over (20)

Result:    Oregon 91-52              Spread (8-3-1    +77)         Totals (6-5-1    -12)

 

9:20 pm    #2 Xavier (-13.5) vs Weber St                                       O/U: 147.5

Weber St hasn’t played any of the bigger schools (only tourney team is South Dakota St) – but they have only been blown out once.   Once again, think Xavier wins – but I don’t think I can pass up that many points.

Lunatic picks:       Weber St (10)             Under (20)

Result:    Xavier 71-53           Spread (8-4-1     +67)         Totals (7-5-1    +6)

 

 

 

9:40 pm    #6 Notre Dame (-3) vs Michigan                                   O/U: 143

There really is no middle ground with Michigan – they seem to either win the game, or get blown out of the water.   That is probably why I picked Notre Dame to win in my sane picks and Michigan to win in my insane picks.   I think the safest decision is to believe the Irish take this game.

Lunatic picks:      Notre Dame (10)              Under (20)

Result:                  Notre Dame 70-63      Spread (9-4-1           +76)       Totals (8-5-1    +24)

 

9:50 pm    #6 Texas (-4.5) vs Northern Iowa                                              O/U: 124.5

Northern Iowa has been actually a pretty amazing team minus a stretch in the middle of the season.    But lets remember that the Wichita State team that just beat Arizona down lost to Northern Iowa in their conference tournament…..

Lunatic picks:     Northern Iowa (20)             Over (30)

Result:   Northern Iowa 75-72       Spread (10-4-1        +94)        Totals (9-5-1   +51)

 

9:57 pm    #8 St. Joseph’s vs #9 Cincinnati (-1.5)                                      O/U: 137.5

My gut feeling when picking these games was that St. Joseph’s would win this game – Cincinnati had a tendency of playing really close in games but lost a few of their most important ones.    So, I will go with St. Joseph’s in a coin flip

Lunatic picks:     St. Joseph’s (10)             Over (10)

Result:    St. Joseph’s  78-76       Spread (11-4-1        +103)          Totals (10-5-1   +60)

 

1st ROUND GAMES

Thursday’s games

 

12:15 pm    #4 Duke (-10.5) vs #13 UNC-Wilmington                                           O/U: 157

UNC-Wilmington’s only game against a power conference team was a 5 point loss at Georgetown – they are just not going to be ready for the talent difference.

Lunatic picks:     Duke (20)             Under (20)

Result:    Duke 93-85            Spread (0-1   -20)    Totals (0-1    -20)   

 

12:40 pm    #8 Texas Tech vs #9 Butler (-4)                                                           O/U: 148

I don’t know what to do with this game – but I do remember the rule of never bet against Butler in March.

Lunatic picks:     Butler (10)         Over (10)

Result:     Butler 71-61        Spread (1-1     -11)    Totals (0-2    -30)

 

1:30 pm    #8 Colorado vs #9 Connecticut (-3)                                                      O/U: 136.5

I struggle with this one.  At the end of the day, Connecticut won their tournament, which was my deciding factor.  

Lunatic picks:     Connecticut (10)    Under (10)

Result:      Connecticut 74-67          Spread (2-1    -2)         Totals (0-3        -40)

 

2:00 pm    #4 Iowa St (-8) vs #13 Iona                                                                    O/U: 167

Vegas thinks this will be a shootout.  Hard for me to argue with that.    I think I will predict Iona starts off cold and can’t help Iowa St cover the total.

Lunatic picks:     Iowa St (30)                        Under (20)

Result:      Iowa St 94-81               Spread (3-1    +25)           Totals (0-4          -60)

 

2:45 pm    #5 Baylor (-5.5) vs #12 Yale                                                                   O/U: 136

A 12 seed wins almost every year – why not go with the one that Vegas gives the lowest line on.

Lunatic picks:     Yale (10)                Over (20)

Result:       Yale  79-75              Spread (4-1    +34)           Totals (1-4    -42)

 

3:10 pm    #1 Virginia (-23.5) vs #16 Hampton                                                     O/U: 133

Hampton has played 3 top 50 RPI teams, and lost by over 30 to all three of them.   Now they get the Cavaliers…..

Lunatic picks:   Virginia (20)            Over (20)

Result:      Virginia 81-45           Spread (5-1   +52)           Totals (1-5  -62)

 

4:00 pm    #1 Kansas (-25.5) vs #16 Austin Peay                                                   O/U: 152

This one makes me slightly more nervous to take all the points.   But I have to imagine the Jayhawks blow them out.

Lunatic picks:     Kansas (10)              Under (20)

Result:      Kansas 105-79           Spread (6-1   +61)         Totals (1-6    -82)

 

4:30 pm    #5 Purdue (-9) vs Little Rock                                                                O/U: 130.5

This figures to be a defensive battle – but I just don’t think Little Rock can handle the Boilers big men.

Lunatic picks:     Purdue (20)              Under (20)

Result:      Little Rock 85-83      Spread (6-2   +41)         Totals (1-7   -102)

 

6:50 pm    #3 Miami-Florida (-14) vs #14 Buffalo                                                             O/U: 148.5

I suspect that Miami FL is going to run away with this one.

Lunatic picks:     Miami FL (20)       Under (20)

Result:    Miami FL 79-72      Spread (6-3    +21)           Totals (1-8    -122)

 

7:10 pm    #5 Indiana (-12) vs #12 Chattanooga                                                    O/U: 145.5

I expect that Chattanooga gives Indiana a little bit of a scare before the Hoosiers pull away at the end.   I am probably biased here – so won’t put much on it.

Lunatic picks:     Chattanooga (10)      Over (10)

Result:    Indiana 99-74         Spread (6-4   +11)           Totals (2-8    -113)

 

7:20 pm    #1 North Carolina (-22) vs #16 Florida Gulf Coast                            O/U: 148

I don’t know why – especially since I think the Tar Heels might be one of the best teams in the field.   But I think 22 points is a little too high of a line for a FGCU team soaring high off their Tuesday victory that only lost by 10 on the road at Texas A&M in the season.   But I do like the idea that lots of points will be scored.

Lunatic picks:     FGCU (10)              Over (30)

Result:     North Carolina 83-67         Spread (7-4   +20)          Totals (3-8   -86)

 

7:27 pm    #3 Utah (-9) vs #14 Fresno St                                                                O/U: 142.5

I think Utah wins this game.   But two things give me pause.  I don’t like how Oregon crushed Utah in the Pac 12 championship.   And Fresno State is a better team than many realize – having losing by only 5 to Oregon.   So, why not take the 9 points.

Lunatic picks:       Fresno St (10)       Over (10)

Result:      Utah 80-69            Spread (7-5   +10)          Totals (4-8  -77)

 

9:20 pm    #6 Arizona (-1.5) vs #11 Wichita St                                                      O/U: 136.5

I feel really bad for Arizona.   Wichita State should not be an 11 seed.   Arizona shouldn’t be a 6 seed.   This game should not be happening in the first round.   With the way the Shockers dismantled Vanderbilt, I am going to go with them.

Lunatic picks:      Wichita St (10)           Under (20)

Result:     Wichita St 65-55     Spread (8-5   +19)           Totals (5-8    -59)

 

9:40 pm    #4 Kentucky (-14.5) vs Stony Brook                                                     O/U: 143.5

The Wildcats won 15 of their 34 games this year by 15 or more points.   I have to believe that they do the same thing to Stony Brook.

Lunatic picks:      Kentucky (30)             Under (20)

Result:    Kentucky 85-57      Spread (9-5    +46)           Totals (6-8    -41)

 

9:50 pm    #8 USC vs #9 Providence (-1.5)                                                             O/U: 150.5

I think these two teams are going to score a lot more points, with Providence scoring just a few more.

Lunatic picks:       Providence (10)           Over (20)

Result:    Providence 70-69     Spread (9-6   +36)            Totals (6-9   -61)

 

9:57 pm    #6 Seton Hall vs #11 Gonzaga (-1.5)                                                     O/U: 145.5

This is a tough call.  Seton Hall really caught my eye when they beat Villanova in the Big East Championship.   But I think that Gonzaga is another team like Wichita St that never should have been an 11 seed – Vegas thinks so as well – since they have the Zags as favorites.

Lunatic picks:      Gonzaga (10)               Under (20)

Result:     Gonzaga 68-52       Spread (10-6   +45)      Totals (7-9    -43)

 

 

PLAY IN GAMES

Wednesday’s games

 

6:40 pm    #16 Southern (-2) vs #16 Holy Cross                            O/U: 130

The Lunatic’s Scouting Report doesn’t have much on these teams.  But it seems like a bad idea to take the team that has a losing record when you only get 2 points.

Lunatic picks:    Southern (20)          OVER (20)

Result:     Holy Cross   59-55                 Spread (2-1   +25)        Totals (0-3 -40)

 

9:10 pm    #11 Michigan (-4) vs #11 Tulsa                                     O/U: 143

I was all ready to pick Michigan in this game.  And then two things halted me in my tracks.   The first thing is that I noticed that Michigan played two of the top schools in the American (SMU and Connecticut) in non-conference, and did much worse than Tulsa did against those teams.  And then I remembered one of my rules.   There is always a team that everyone says doesn’t belong in the tournament, and inevitably, that team then always wins their first game.   And if you haven’t been listening, no one in the media believes that Tulsa (or a little less adamantly, Michigan) should be in the tournament.

Lunatic picks:    Tulsa (10)                UNDER (10)

Result:    Michigan 67-62         Spread (2-2  +15)     Totals (1-3  -31)

 

 

PLAY IN GAMES

Tuesday’s games

 

6:40 pm    #16 Florida Gulf Coast (-5.5) vs #16 Fairleigh Dickinson                  O/U: 152.5

Florida Gulf Coast looks better than their RPI suggests.  Fairleigh Dickinson – has been outscored on average by their opponents – looks exactly like their RPI suggests.

Lunatic picks:    Florida Gulf Coast (30)       Under (10)

Result:     Florida Gulf Coast 96-65        Spread (1-0   +27)     Total (0-1   -10)

 

9:10 pm    #11 Wichita State (-3.5) vs #11 Vanderbilt                                          O/U: 136

Should be an interesting game.   This is close to a pick-em game according to Vegas, but Vanderbilt makes me a little bit nervous after losing to Tennessee in the SEC tournament.

Lunatic picks:     Wichita State (20)         OVER (10)

Result:     Wichita St 70-50                      Spread (2-0   +45)     Total (0-2   -20)