The Lunatic’s Insane Handicapping

The Lunatic has been stomped so badly over the last few years, and so he has felt it necessary to show that he has some talent in picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines. Because if I can't beat half the people in the pool, it is clearly obvious that I can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers.

Lunatic Disclosure #1: This is for recreational purposes only. The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!!
Lunatic Disclosure #2: In case you haven't read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you. I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.
Lunatic Disclosure #3: In case you haven't read the first two disclosures, I have lost imaginary money in this silly feature for three straight years - I am not really sure why I keep doing it. Oh yeah - I am crazy about college basketball.

To give myself a chance (since obviously, some of the closer games, I would just normally leave alone - however, what fun would it be if I didn't pick every game), I tier my imaginary bets into 10 (no clue), 20 (some confidence), 30 (closest to a lock). Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit my no clues...... Also, since there are so many first round games, I will probably be brief.

Saturday’s Elite 8 Games

After Round 3 - Picks Record: 26-32-2 (-150) Totals Record: 30-29-1 (-116)

Lunatic Note: Because I am so far down, I am going to max out each bet from here on in whether I think it is a lock or not. I am actually down 54 more than if I had just bet 20 for every game. So, I am going to bet the same for every game – and see if going the max can catch me up. Isn’t that what any compulsive gambler would do – bet big to make back their money…..

6:09 pm - #1 Gonzaga (-8.5) vs #11 Xavier O/U: 145

I don’t know what to do here. I keep picking Gonzaga and Xavier to both lose and they keep winning. But here is the thing. Gonzaga beat Northwestern by 6 and West Virginia by 3. Xavier just upset Arizona and is now 3-0 against the spread. I suspect that Gonzaga might win this game, but if I am getting 8.5 points, I am putting it all on Xavier.

Lunatic’s Picks: Xavier (30) Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)

Results: Gonzaga 83-59 Picks Record: 26-33-2 (-180) Totals Record: 31-29-1 (-89)

8:49 pm - #1 Kansas (-6.5) vs #3 Oregon O/U: 157

After watching the Jayhawks demolish my Boilers, it is pretty clear to me that Kansas is the best team in this regional. And the line is only 6.5 points – this is nothing against Oregon –they are Pac 12 regular season champions for a reason, but I will be surprised if this game isn’t in double digits.

Lunatic’s Picks: Kansas (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Oregon 74-60 Picks Record: 26-34-2 (-210) Totals Record: 31-30-1 (-119)

Sunday’s Elite 8 Games

2:20 pm - #4 Florida (-3) vs #7 South Carolina O/U: 134.5

These two teams know each other being both from the SEC. Of course, they split their season series with both teams winning at home. Based on the differentials of the two games, the advantage goes to Florida. South Carolina is playing so well right now, but I wonder if Florida’s close overtime victory actually prepares them a little better in case this game gets close.

Lunatic’s Picks: Florida (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: South Carolina 77-70 Picks Record: 26-35-2 (-240) Totals Record: 32-30-1 (-92)

5:05 pm - #1 North Carolina (-2.5) vs #2 Kentucky O/U: 159.5

This should be a great game. ACC Champion vs. SEC Champion. These two teams played each other in the regular season with the Wildcats winning by 3 points. But both teams look like they are playing even better in March. I expect this will be a high scoring game – but I think the deciding factor is going to be experience. North Carolina is trying to get back to the championship game, and I think that experience will give them an advantage over

Lunatic’s Picks: North Carolina (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: North Carolina 75-73 Picks Record: 26-36-2 (-270) Totals Record: 32-31-1 (-122)

Thursday’s Sweet 16 Games

After Round 2 - Picks Record: 24-27-1 (-106) Totals Record: 27-24-1 (-4)

7:09 pm - #3 Oregon vs #7 Michigan (-1) O/U: 146.5

Oregon struggled with finishing off Rhode Island – and Michigan looks like a team of destiny. They have gone from a nice feel-good story to a serious contender for the national championship. Michigan looks like they are not going to let anyone stop them.

Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Oregon 69-68 Picks Record: 24-28-1 (-126) Totals Record: 27-25-1 (-34)

7:39 pm - #1 Gonzaga (-3) vs #4 West Virginia O/U: 148.5

I was sure that Notre Dame was going to be in the Sweet 16 – and then I watched the game and saw how difficult it was for the Irish to even in-bound the ball against the Mountaineers press. I think this is a bad match-up for Gonzaga – playing a mid-major schedule is just not going to give you the experience to deal with this type of defensive pressure. I am going to go with the upset.

Lunatic’s Picks: West Virginia (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results: Gonzaga 61-58 Picks Record: 24-28-2 (-126) Totals Record: 28-25-1 (-25)

9:39 pm - #1 Kansas (-5) vs #4 Purdue O/U: 156.5

Hail, Hail to Old Purdue!!! All Hail to the Our Old Gold and Black!!!! It doesn’t matter to me that Kansas looked so incredibly good over the weekend – especially with destroying Michigan State. It doesn’t matter to me that Purdue can become predictable on offense. It doesn’t matter to me that a line of only 5 points can be wiped out simply by FTs at the end of the game. I will go with my Boilermakers!!!!! All Hail to Old Purdue!!!

Lunatic’s Picks: Purdue (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Purdue 98-66 Picks Record: 24-29-2 (-136) Totals Record: 29-25-1 (-45)

10:09 pm - #2 Arizona (-7.5) vs #11 Xavier O/U: 145

Was Xavier’s 25 point victory over Florida State a sign that I should take Cinderella. Or do I continue to go with the reality that I would have said before last week’s games that St. Mary’s was better than Xavier, and Arizona beat St. Mary’s by 9. I am going to go with Arizona – because this is normally around the time the clock strikes midnight on Cinderella. And if anyone would know how to beat Xavier, it would be Sean Miller – the previous Xavier coach.

Lunatic’s Picks: Arizona (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Xavier 73-71 Picks Record: 24-30-2 (-156) Totals Record: 29-26-1 (-75)

Friday’s Sweet 16 Games

7:09 pm - #1 North Carolina (-7.5) vs #4 Butler O/U: 153

Butler is one of those teams that you never bet against in March. UNC has more talent and a few of these players came back after last year to win a national championship – so I suspect they will win. But 7.5 points is a lot of points in a Sweet 16 game – especially against a team you never bet against in March.

Lunatic’s Picks: Butler (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results: North Carolina 92-80 Picks Record: 24-31-2 (-166) Totals Record: 29-27-1 (-85)

7:39 pm - #3 Baylor (-3.5) vs #7 South Carolina O/U: 135

South Carolina looked really, really good against Duke in getting to the Sweet 16. Baylor survived and advanced against USC. The Gamecocks looked much better over the weekend – I am going to go with the hot team.

Lunatic’s Picks: South Carolina (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: South Carolina 70-50 Picks Record: 25-31-2 (-148) Totals Record: 29-28-1 (-115)

9:39 pm - #2 Kentucky (PICK EM) vs #3 UCLA O/U: 165.5

This should be an exciting re-match of when UCLA went to Kentucky and upset them 97-92 in a high scoring affair. But obviously, the stakes are much higher this time. While I know the Bruins won the game in Lexington, I think that might add some extra motivation for the Wildcats – and teams that have won championships (Kentucky won the regular season and conference tourney for the SEC – UCLA did neither in the Pac 12) tend to go farther. I am going to take the Wildcats in a close game – only reason not to go more with the over is 165.5 is a tremendous amount of points.

Lunatic’s Picks: Kentucky (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Kentucky 86-75 Picks Record: 26-31-2 (-130) Totals Record: 29-29-1 (-125)

9:59 pm - #4 Florida (-2) vs #8 Wisconsin O/U: 131.5

Should be a great battle of two defensive teams. But I paid so much attention when picking Wisconsin games to their end of season losing streak. What I forgot about in the tournament is that the Badgers have 4 seniors who have been to 2 Final Fours who are trying to make one last run at the championship that evaded them in 2015. I am going to go with the Badgers.

Lunatic’s Picks: Wisconsin (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Florida 84-83 Picks Record: 26-32-2 (-150) Totals Record: 30-29-1 (-116)

Saturday's Second Round Games

After Round 1 - Picks Record: 17-18-1 (-62) Totals Record: 21-14-1 (+98)

12:10 pm - #4 West Virginia (-2.5) vs #5 Notre Dame O/U: 147

What a great way to start off the second round – this should be a great game. Oh wait, that makes this really hard to pick. I tend to shy away from Big 12 schools – historically, the ACC has been more dependable in winning these types of games, so I will go with the Irish to make the upset. Especially since I am writing this on St. Patrick’s Day – seems like a poor choice to not pick the Irish on this holiday.

Lunatic’s Picks: Notre Dame (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: West Virginia 83-71 Picks Record: 17-19-1 (-72) Totals Record: 22-14-1 (+107)

2:40 pm - #1 Villanova (-5.5) vs #8 Wisconsin O/U: 128.5

I think Villanova took their first round opponent too easy, which allowed Mount St. Mary’s to be close at halftime. The defending champions closed that door pretty quickly in the second half, and more importantly, I don’t think they will make the same mistake against the Badgers. I really like Villanova in this game – only reason not to lock this is if Wisconsin slows the pace down and turns this into a defensive battle – then I still think Villanova wins, but Wisconsin might be able to keep things close enough not to cover.

Lunatic’s Picks: Villanova (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Wisconsin 65-62 Picks Record: 17-20-1 (-92) Totals Record: 22-15-1 (+97)

5:15 pm - #1 Gonzaga (-11) vs #8 Northwestern O/U: 136.5

I just don’t see a scenario where Northwestern has their first visit to the NCAA Tournament ended by being destroyed – even if it is by a #1 seed. If we were betting this game straight up, I would take the Zags. But getting double digit points, I have to take Northwestern, since I see more chances the Wildcats pull off a major upset vs. getting blown out of the water.

Lunatic’s Picks: Northwestern (30) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Gonzaga 79-73 Picks Record: 18-20-1 (-65) Totals Record: 22-16-1 (+77)

6:10 pm - #3 Florida St (-6) vs #11 Xavier O/U: 151

Xavier really impressed me with their victory over Maryland. So this makes this harder to pick. I think Florida St is simply the better the team, and while Xavier is playing well, they are down one of the best players since February. I think the Seminoles have too much depth for Xavier.

Lunatic’s Picks: Florida St (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Xavier 91-66 Picks Record: 18-21-1 (-75) Totals Record: 22-17-1 (+57)

7:10 pm - #4 Butler (-4) vs #12 Middle Tennessee State O/U: 140

One of the teams you never bet against in March vs. Cinderella – that is just not fair. I think I remember seeing somewhere that Butler hasn’t lost in a game where they were a favorite based on seed – so I am going to have to go with the Bulldogs.

Lunatic’s Picks: Butler (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Butler 74-65 Picks Record: 19-21-1 (-57) Totals Record: 22-18-1 (+47)

7:45 pm - #2 Arizona (-4.5) vs #7 Saint Mary’s O/U: 132

These two teams have 8 losses between the two of them. If I counted right, there are 44 teams in the tournament (including 2 seeds Duke and Louisville) that have 8 or more losses. Someone tell me again how this is a second round game? But we have to choose. I still have been very impressed with how Arizona rolled through the Pac 12 tournament – I think they are the better team, and with only needing to cover 4 points, you got to take the better team.

Lunatic’s Picks: Arizona (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Arizona 69-60 Picks Record: 20-21-1 (-30) Totals Record: 22-19-1 (+17)

8:40 pm - #4 Florida (-2) vs #5 Virginia O/U: 125.5

I am not really sure what to pick here. Florida hasn’t been the same team since center John Egbunu tore his ACL. Virginia is an amazingly good defensive team that goes through stretches where they forget how to play offense. I am going to go with the Cavaliers – they are the local team, ACC teams tend to be a little more reliable in this situation, and the history that when Vegas favors a top seed by a couple of points, the underdog tends to win.

Lunatic’s Picks: Virginia (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Florida 65-39 Picks Record: 20-22-1 (-40) Totals Record: 22-20-1 (-13)

9:40 pm - #4 Purdue (-1) vs #5 Iowa State O/U: 152

Have to pick Purdue – they are my team. I will always stay away from Purdue games, because I am so biased – but I do think the Boilers win this game and head to the Sweet 16.

Lunatic’s Picks: Purdue (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Purdue 80-76 Picks Record: 21-22-1 (-31) Totals Record: 23-20-1 (-4)

Sunday's Second Round Games

12:10 pm - #2 Louisville (-2.5) vs #7 Michigan O/U: 140

This probably never should have been a second round game. I am torn because Louisville is one of the teams that I think could make it all the way to the Final Four, but Michigan is on such an amazing tear at the moment. I originally thought with the line at 2.5 points, you have to take the Cardinals – they probably have more talent. But after Saturday’s games, I am going to switch so I can ride the streak. The story of Michigan’s plane sliding off the runway, everyone being OK, and then watching the Wolverines win the next 4 games to claim the Big Ten tournament and then win their opener in the tourney is so incredible – don’t bet against the streak.

Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Michigan 73-69 Picks Record: 22-22-1 (-22) Totals Record: 24-20-1 (+14)

2:40 pm - #2 Kentucky (-4.5) vs #10 Wichita State O/U: 153.5

After the game with Dayton, Wichita State’s coach mentioned that Dayton deserved a better draw than what they got. The Shockers should never have been a 10 seed. But on Sunday, this is where the comment can be made that both of these teams deserved a better draw than what they got. Same with the Louisville / Michigan game, Kentucky is one of the teams that I thought about for a while about being able to make the Final Four – got to take the more talented team here.

Lunatic’s Picks: Kentucky (30) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Kentucky 65-62 Picks Record: 22-23-1 (-52) Totals Record: 25-20-1 (+32)

5:15 pm - #1 Kansas (-8) vs #9 Michigan State O/U: 148

Both Kansas and Michigan State looked really good in their first round games. Kansas has more talent – but they have also played a lot of close games this year. And never bet against Tom Izzo’s bunch in March!!!

Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan State (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Kansas 90-70 Picks Record: 22-24-1 (-62) Totals Record: 25-21-1 (+12)

6:10 pm - #1 North Carolina (-10.5) vs #8 Arkansas O/U: 162

This should be a track meet – only reason not to lock it is that 162 points is a lot – basically, they are predicting the score to be about 87-76. I suspect the Tar Heels will cover in this game – they look ready to make a title run.

Lunatic’s Picks: North Carolina (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: North Carolina 72-65 Picks Record: 22-25-1 (-82) Totals Record: 25-22-1 (-8)

7:10 pm - #3 Oregon (-5) vs #11 Rhode Island O/U: 139.5

I think this line is being driven because Oregon has lost their big forward Chris Boucher – but Dillon Brooks, Tyler Dorsey and Jordan Bell are still on the court to lead the Ducks. Boucher’s injury might end the Ducks tournament before the Final Four, but I don’t expect it to be at the hands of the Rams. Rhode Island’s streak has been pretty impressive, but Oregon is a big jump in competition to who they have played during their streak.

Lunatic’s Picks: Oregon (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Oregon 75-72 Picks Record: 22-26-1 (-112) Totals Record: 26-22-1 (+19)

7:45 pm - #3 Baylor (-6.5) vs #11 USC O/U: 143

On one hand, you have Baylor – who let New Mexico State hang with them for a half before dominating the second half. On the other hand, you have USC, who has fallen behind by double digits against both Providence and SMU just to come back and win. I see lots of possibilities with this game, but I am going to stick with – never bet against the team that barely made it into the tournament – they are proving they belong.

Lunatic’s Picks: USC (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Baylor 82-78 Picks Record: 23-26-1 (-103) Totals Record: 26-23-1 (-1)

8:40 pm - #2 Duke (-7) vs #7 South Carolina O/U: 142

South Carolina score 93 points on Marquette. I don’t expect them to be as red-hot against a better Duke defense, but I do expect the game to be a high scoring affair, as Duke tends to score more than 80 points per game. I think the Blue Devils have simply too many weapons and take this game.

Lunatic’s Picks: Duke (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: South Carolina 88-81 Picks Record: 23-27-1 (-133) Totals Record: 27-23-1 (+26)

9:40 pm - #3 UCLA (-4) vs #6 Cincinnati O/U: 153

Cincinnati will try to slow down UCLA – but I am not sure anyone can. I expect UCLA to win this high scoring game and head to the Sweet 16.

Lunatic’s Picks: UCLA (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: UCLA 79-67 Picks Record: 24-27-1 (-106) Totals Record: 27-24-1 (-4)

Tuesday's First Round Games

6:40 pm - #16 New Orleans (-1.5) vs #16 Mount St. Mary’s O/U: 131.5

Both teams struggled against other teams in the tournament. However, Mount St. Mary’s kept their games closer – so I am going to take the points. I will also take the over expecting these teams to come out super excited but not able to stop anyone defensively.

Lunatic’s Picks: Mount St. Mary’s (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Mt St Mary’s 67-66 Picks Record: 1-0 (+18) Totals Record: 1-0 (+18)

9:10 pm - #11 Wake Forest (-1) vs #11 Kansas State O/U: 152

Wake Forest scores lots of points, and Wake Forest allows other teams to score lots of points – which should make this a fun game to watch. What is the influencing factor for me is the ACC’s success in the tourney and the realization that teams with losing records in their conference tend to struggle in the tourney.

Lunatic’s Picks: Wake Forest (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Kansas State 95-88 Picks Record: 1-1 (-12) Totals Record: 2-0 (+45)

Wednesday's First Round Games

6:40 pm - #16 North Carolina Central (-4) vs. UC Davis O/U: 132.5

I don’t know much about either of these teams, but North Carolina Central seems to have done better against its schedule than UC Davis (higher ASM – NC Central’s toughest game was a close loss to Ohio State vs. UC Davis’s toughest game was losing a blow-out to Cal).

Lunatic’s Picks: NC Central (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: UC Davis 67-63 Picks Record: 1-2 (-8) Totals Record: 2-1 (+35)

6:40 pm - #11 USC (-2.5) vs #11 Providence O/U: 140

Despite USC's 24 wins, this was the team that many of the press questioned on if they should be in the tournament or not (including being the one team ESPN's Lunardi was wrong on). Historically, the team that the media says shouldn't be in tends to award the committee by proving them right and winning their game (don't know that the Trojans have a Final 4 type run in them like Syracuse, but this seems to happen every year). I am going to go with the Trojans.

Lunatic’s Picks: USC (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: USC 75-71 Picks Record: 2-2 (+10) Totals Record: 3-1 (+53)

Thursday's First Round Games

12:15 pm - #5 Notre Dame (-7) vs #12 Princeton O/U: 134

I love picking upsets with the #5 / #12 games, but I just don’t see this one happening. Notre Dame is coming off an exciting run to the ACC Championship game. Princeton has played 6 games against top 100 RPI teams and lost 4 of those 6 games by more than 7 points – and none of those teams are good as the Irish. I am going to go with Notre Dame.

Lunatic’s Picks: Notre Dame (30) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Notre Dame 60-58 Picks Record: 2-3 (-20) Totals Record: 4-1 (+71)

12:40 pm - #5 Virginia (-8) vs #12 UNC-Wilmington O/U: 135

This is a tough one for me. Virginia has been such an up and down team the last month. They seemed to have lost their offense. While I think the Cavaliers will win this game with their defense, the question that I have is can they win it by 8. If I really suspect this will be a low scoring affair, I think it is best to take the points, but I wouldn’t bet much on it.

Lunatic’s Picks: UNC-Wilmington (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)

Results: Virginia 76-71 Picks Record: 3-3 (-11) Totals Record: 4-2 (+41)

1:30 pm - #4 Butler (-11.5) vs #13 Winthrop O/U: 144.5

There are a few teams that I have learned never bet against in March. The Butler Bulldogs are one of those teams. I suspect this will be a high scoring affair that will see the Bulldogs advance.

Lunatic’s Picks: Butler (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Butler 76-64 Picks Record: 4-3 (-2) Totals Record: 4-3 (+21)

2:00 pm - #1 Gonzaga (-22.5) vs South Dakota St O/U: 153

Gonzaga has spent most of the year destroying teams in the WCC, many who I would say are better than South Dakota State. I expect to see Gonzaga put up a lot of points in this game and cover the spread.

Lunatic’s Picks: Gonzaga (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Gonzaga 66-46 Picks Record: 4-4 (-12) Totals Record: 4-4 (+1)

2:45 pm - #4 West Virginia (-14) vs #13 Bucknell O/U: 146.5

I suspect West Virginia to win this game. But Bucknell is a pretty good team, and I just don’t see them getting blown off the court. With 14 points, I have to take Cinderella.

Lunatic’s Picks: Bucknell (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: West Virginia 86-80 Picks Record: 5-4 (-3) Totals Record: 5-4 (+10)

3:10 pm - #4 Florida (-10) vs #13 East Tennessee St O/U: 145

Much has been made about Florida not looking the same after losing their star center to an ACL injury. It is true the Gators went 3-3 during that stretch, but 5 of those games were against SEC teams that made the tournament (and 2 of those, they won by more than 10 points). I am going to take the Gators.

Lunatic’s Picks: Florida (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results: Florida 80-65 Picks Record: 6-4 (+15) Totals Record: 5-4-1 (+10)

4:00 pm - #5 Minnesota (PK) vs #12 Middle Tennessee St O/U: 136

Minnesota might be ranked a seed or two lower than they should – their punishment is getting Middle Tennessee State, who is definitely not a typical 12 seed. This is a Middle Tennessee St team that beat Vanderbilt by 23 points this year. Everything about this game shouts upset – I would take Middle Tennessee St to win this game.

Lunatic’s Picks: Middle Tennessee St (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Middle Tennessee St 81-72 Picks Record: 7-4 (+33) Totals Record: 5-5-1 (-10)

4:30 pm - #8 Northwestern vs #9 Vanderbilt (-1) O/U: 130.5

Northwestern is one of this year’s best stories. Vanderbilt has beat some really good teams but also has lots of close losses. Normally, when Vegas says the team with the worse seed is the favorite, it normally ends with a victiory. But I have to root for Northwestern to make their first tournament ever more special by winning their first game.

Lunatic’s Picks: Northwestern (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Northwestern 68-66 Picks Record: 8-4 (+51) Totals Record: 6-5-1 (+17)

6:50 pm - #6 Maryland (-2) vs #11 Xavier O/U: 141.5

Melo Trimble just seems to find a way to hit big shots. I still remember how they ended the regular season with a last second victory over the Spartans. The only other team that Xavier has been able to beat other than Butler in the Big East Conference Tournament was DePaul… Fear the turtle.

Lunatic’s Picks: Maryland (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Xavier 76-65 Picks Record: 8-5 (+31) Totals Record: 7-5-1 (+35)

7:10 pm - #1 Villanova (-26.5) vs #16 Mount St Mary’s O/U: 133

Congratulations to Mt St Mary’s on winning a tournament game against New Orleans – but I also didn’t see anything in that game that suggested they could hang with the defending national champions. I expect this game is going to get out of hand early and then it is really a question on whether Mt St Marys gets to 50 points to help Villanova cover the over.

Lunatic’s Picks: Villanova (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Villanova 76-56 Picks Record: 8-6 (+11) Totals Record: 7-6-1 (+5)

7:20 pm - #7 St. Mary’s CA (-4.5) vs #10 VCU O/U: 127

I suspect this to be a great defensive game – I have to go with the local team here but really think the game can go either way. While St. Mary’s has held a lot of teams to low totals, VCU has only played 4 games this year under 127 points. Because St. Mary’s has had enough low scoring games, I won’t lock this – but I expect VCU’s press will lead to the game being faster pace that St. Mary’s typically plays.

Lunatic’s Picks: VCU (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: St Mary’s 85-77 Picks Record: 8-7 (+1) Totals Record: 8-6-1 (+23)

7:27 pm - #4 Purdue (-9.5) vs #13 Vermont O/U: 134

I have to pick my Boilermakers. Wish the line wasn’t 9.5 points. Wish we didn’t draw another team with less than 5 losses, because I do think Vermont has a good team. But I am fully behind Purdue!!!! Go Boilers!!!

Lunatic’s Picks: Purdue (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results: Purdue 80-70 Picks Record: 9-7 (+10) Totals Record: 8-7-1 (+13)

9:20 pm - #3 Florida State (-12) vs #14 Florida Gulf Coast O/U: 146.5

This game should see a lot of points, especially if FSU gets out to a big enough lead that could turn this into a track meet. I will take the Seminoles to barely cover the spread in a high scoring affair.

Lunatic’s Picks: Florida St (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: Florida St 86-80 Picks Record: 9-8 (-10) Totals Record: 9-7-1 (+40)

9:40 pm - #8 Wisconsin (-5.5) vs #9 Virginia Tech O/U: 138.5

The line being 5.5 points tells you Vegas feels the Badgers are mis-seeded – an 8 vs. 9 game typically is a pick-em type game. Being 5.5 points becomes more complicated, because while I think the Badgers are going to win in a defensive battle, I also think the Hokies have the ability to keep this close. I don’t like picking a team that I think will lose on a line this small because FTs can put a close game over this threshold, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in it.

Lunatic’s Picks: Wisconsin (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)

Results: Wisconsin 84-74 Picks Record: 10-8 (-1) Totals Record: 9-8-1 (+10)

9:50 pm - #2 Arizona (-17) vs #15 North Dakota O/U: 147.5

Arizona looked really good in the Pac 12 tournament, and have to be excited to be out in the West which looks like the easiest region. So, I expect them to come out and run away with this game – leave nothing to chance.

Lunatic’s Picks: Arizona (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Arizona 100-82 Picks Record: 11-8 (+17) Totals Record: 10-8-1 (+28)

9:57 pm - #5 Iowa State (-5.5) vs #12 Nevada O/U: 154.5

I love rooting for the 12 seeds. I hate that teams like Nevada go 28-6 for the season and then get stuck behind all the at-larges. As you saw me say in the blog, this is completely unfair to both teams. Iowa State showed how good they are by winning the Big 12 conference tournament – they should not have to play a 28-6 team to start and then get regular season champions Purdue and Kansas as their potential rewards for that victory. But guess that is how things go at the dance. Got to root for Cinderella!!!!

Lunatic’s Picks: Nevada (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Iowa St 84-73 Picks Record: 11-9 (+7) Totals Record: 11-8-1 (+37)

Friday's First Round Games

12:15 pm - #7 Michigan (-2.5) vs #10 Oklahoma State O/U: 154.5

Michigan survived their plane crashing while trying to take off, barely made the Big 10 tournament on time, and then went on to beat Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin to win the tournament. Oklahoma State is one of the best offensive teams in the country, but there is no way that you can bet against the Wolverines – they are beating all the odds at the moment.

Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Michigan 92-91 Picks Record: 11-10 (-13) Totals Record: 12-8-1 (+55)

12:40 pm - #3 Baylor (-12.5) vs #14 New Mexico State O/U: 134.5

Baylor has a history of being the surprise team to lose to Cinderella (losing the last two years to Georgia St and Yale). So, one of two things is going to happen – they are going to come out and blow this game out to make sure lightning doesn’t hit for a third time, or they are going to play tight because of their history and this is going to be a tight game. I think Baylor wins this game, but there is enough potential for bad things that I don’t want to have to cover 12.5 points.

Lunatic’s Picks: New Mexico State (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Baylor 91-73 Picks Record: 11-11 (-23) Totals Record: 12-9-1 (+35)

1:30 pm - #8 Arkansas (-1) vs #9 Seton Hall O/U: 146.5

I still don’t know what to expect from Arkansas – they seem like a team that beats the teams that they are supposed to beat but can not come through against the elite teams. I would not say Seton Hall fits into the category of elite teams, but they did take Villanova to the buzzer in their conference tournament. I am going to go with Seton Hall and pick the small upset.

Lunatic’s Picks: Seton Hall (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Arkansas 77-71 Picks Record: 11-12 (-43) Totals Record: 12-10-1 (+15)

2:00 pm - #3 Oregon (-15) vs #14 Iona O/U: 151.5

Oregon is going to be on a mission to show that they can look good without their star center. Also, the one time Iona played a top major conference team was their opener against Florida State – which they lost by over 20 in a high scoring affair. I am going to guess that this game will look very similar with the Ducks running away.

Lunatic’s Picks: Oregon (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Oregon 93-77 Picks Record: 12-12 (-25) Totals Record: 13-10-1 (+33)

2:45 pm - #2 Louisville (-20.5) vs Jacksonville State O/U: 134

Jacksonville State’s only major conference opponent this year was TCU – which they were beat by 19. Louisville is obviously much better than TCU, and this stage is much bigger than anything Jacksonville State is used to. It is a very successful season for them to make it to the dance, but this should be all Louisville.

Lunatic’s Picks: Louisville (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Louisville 78-63 Picks Record: 12-13 (-45) Totals Record: 14-10-1 (+42)

3:10 pm - #6 SMU (-6.5) vs #11 Providence / USC O/U: 138

It happens every year – one of the First Four winners pulls off an upset in the next round. Add to it the history that teams the media mentioned maybe didn’t deserve their bid tend to win their first round game. SMU might be the better team, and they cause match-up problems for teams. But sometimes when gambling, you never bet against a streak – take USC and the points.

Lunatic’s Picks: USC (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: USC 66-65 Picks Record: 13-13 (-36) Totals Record: 14-11-1 (+22)

4:00 pm - #1 North Carolina (-27) vs #16 Texas Southern O/U: 154.5

Poor Texas Southern – would you want to play UNC in the game right after they got upset by Duke in the ACC tourney either. When this happened in the regular season, they came back by beating North Carolina State by 24 points. I am scare to think about what the total of this game could be.

Lunatic’s Picks: North Carolina (20) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: North Carolina 103-64 Picks Record: 14-13 (-18) Totals Record: 15-11-1 (+49)

4:30 pm - #6 Creighton (-1) vs #11 Rhode Island O/U: 143

I can’t help but root for the underdog here. Rhode Island looked really good as they won the Atlantic 10 tournament. Creighton has good days and bad days ever since they lost their star point guard. And the NCAA Tournament is the type of place that really exposes those types of losses. If Creighton has one of their good days, they likely win this game – but I just don’t see enough consistency to be confident about that – which makes this a good game to pick the underdog (who happens to be a team talented enough that was pre-season top 25).

Lunatic’s Picks: Rhode Island (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Rhode Island 84-72 Picks Record: 15-13 (-9) Totals Record: 15-12-1 (+29)

6:50 pm - #1 Kansas (-23.5) vs #16 UC Davis O/U: 145.5

Kansas will obviously win this game. And it is tough to beat anyone who makes the NCAA Tournament by 20+ points. I think I have already taken too many favorites with a lot of points – I am going to guess that Kansas wins in a defensive game – causing this game not to cover the spread.

Lunatic’s Picks: UC Davis (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Kansas 100-62 Picks Record: 15-14 (-19) Totals Record: 15-13-1 (+9)

7:10 pm - #7 Dayton vs #10 Wichita State (-6) O/U: 145.5

I really feel bad for Dayton here. They won their regular season championship in the Atlantic 10 and deserved a good match-up. Wichita State is not a good match-up. So much that Vegas opened up the line as having the Flyers as a 6 point underdog. And what’s worse – I think Vegas is right and the Shockers are going to cover the spread. Normally, I would completely avoid this game and just enjoy what should be two great teams playing – but that doesn’t make for a good handicapping page.

Lunatic’s Picks: Wichita St (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Wichita State 64-58 Picks Record: 15-14-1 (-19) Totals Record: 15-14-1 (-1)

7:20 pm - #2 Duke (-19) vs #15 Troy O/U: 153.5

Duke has way too much talent here. I don’t really like 20 point spreads, especially since sometimes the better team slows down once they have the game under control. But I just don’t see Troy being able to hang with the Blue Devils.

Lunatic’s Picks: Duke (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results: Duke 87-65 Picks Record: 16-14-1 (-1) Totals Record: 16-14-1 (+17)

7:27 pm - #6 Cincinnati (-3.5) vs #11 Kansas St O/U: 131

Every year, a team from the First Four seems to pull the upset to get to the Round of 32. And Kansas State seems to have a lot of momentum after their big win against Baylor to probably get them into the tournament and then their First Four victory over Wake Forest, where they scored over 90 points. I am going to go with the First Four team here.

Lunatic’s Picks: Kansas St (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Cincinnati 75-61 Picks Record: 16-15-1 (-11) Totals Record: 17-14-1 (+35)

9:20 pm - #8 Miami FL (-2) vs Michigan State O/U: 125.5

Never ever bet against Tom Izzo in March. Miami might be the better team, but never bet against Tom Izzo in March.

Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan St (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Michigan St 78-58 Picks Record: 17-15-1 (-2) Totals Record: 18-14-1 (+44)

9:40 pm - #2 Kentucky (-20) vs #15 Northern Kentucky O/U: 153

It is interesting to me how as you heard people talk about who should be the #1 seeds, the one team that the Selection Committee mentioned and most of the media ignored was Kentucky. But the Wildcats have won 11 games in a row, and have lots of talent. There will be better games to be watching at this point – this will probably be ugly.

Lunatic’s Picks: Kentucky (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results: Kentucky 79-70 Picks Record: 17-16-1 (-22) Totals Record: 19-14-1 (+53)

9:50 pm - #7 South Carolina (-1.5) vs #10 Marquette O/U: 147.5

South Carolina really struggled at the end of the season – losing 6 of their last 9 games. Marquette is one of the few teams that have beaten Villanova this year. And you are getting points to take Marquette. For some reason, I really like this game for Marquette winning a high scoring game.

Lunatic’s Picks: Marquette (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: South Carolina 93-73 Picks Record: 17-17-1 (-52) Totals Record: 20-14-1 (+71)

9:57 pm - #3 UCLA (-17.5) vs #14 Kent St O/U: 161.5

UCLA had 9 games this year where they scored 100 points. This game has the potential to be UCLA’s 10^th. Interestingly enough, Kent St also had 3 Division I games where they scored 100 points – so they are not afraid to run in a track meet. Not sure that UCLA will cover the spread, but I feel really good that these teams will cover the 161.5 points.

Lunatic’s Picks: UCLA (10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results: UCLA 97-80 Picks Record: 17-18-1 (-62) Totals Record: 21-14-1 (+98)