The Lunatic’s Insane Handicapping

The Lunatic has been stomped so badly over the last few years, and so he has felt it necessary to show that he has some talent in picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines.   Because if I can't beat half the people in the pool, it is clearly obvious that can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers.

Lunatic Disclosure #1: This is for recreational purposes only.  The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!!
Lunatic Disclosure #2: In case you haven't read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you.   I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.
Lunatic Disclosure #3: In case you haven't read the first two disclosures, I have lost imaginary money in this silly feature for four straight years - I am not really sure why I keep doing it.  Oh yeah - I am crazy about college basketball.

To give myself a chance (since obviously, some of the closer games, I would just normally leave alone - however, what fun would it be if I didn't pick every game), I tier my imaginary bets into 10 (no clue), 20 (some confidence), 30 (closest to a lock).   Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit my no clues......   Also, since there are so many first round games, I will probably be brief.

Championship Game

After Final 4 (+5 ahead – still due to somehow getting the totals correct):                        Picks Record: 29-45-1  (-137)            Totals Record:  38-28 (+142)

 

Lunatic’s Note / Commentary – Thanks to going 3-1 on Saturday, the Lunatic is actually $5 ahead.  It is very tempting to say, quit while I am ahead – even if it is only an imaginary $5.   But there is two problems with that – the compulsive gambler would not walk away at this point.  They would believe that they are on a streak and they would push the streak.  But more importantly, this is all imaginary money.   It is only going to be my pride on the line if I lose on Monday – and lets face it, I am crazy.   That is just ridiculous not to pick the final game.   That being said, my rules from Saturday still apply.  I don’t want my locking a game causing a team at this point to lose.  All estimates at this point will be $30 – whether I feel great about the pick or not.   Since at this point, it doesn’t matter – I lose if I am wrong on both, and I win if I can just get one right.  So the compulsive gamble would go big. 

9:20 pm - #1 Villanova (-6.5) vs #3 Michigan                                    O/U: 145

I made one mistake in the Final Four games – the outcome of the Loyola-Chicago / Michigan game.   I came up with reasons why I thought the game would be close and why Loyola-Chicago would at a minimum cover the spread.  I am not going to make that mistake again.  The fan in me wants an exciting, close National Championship game.   The Big 10 alumni in me wants to see Michigan surprise everyone and win one for the Big 10.   And I have always had lots of respect for John Beilein as a great coach who does things the right way (which in a year with all the drama from the FBI investigations, it would be awesome for that person to win).  And note – that is nothing to say bad things about Jay Wright – who is also a great coach.  But that all goes back to what I want to see. 

Villanova started this season as the preseason 6th ranked team – and that was the worst ranking they had in the polls all year.  Michigan has had a fantastic run through the tournament, but if the committee’s seeds are any indication, they have also had a lot of luck.   That is because the toughest seed that Michigan has had to face was the West’s 6th seed Houston in the 2nd round.  Since the Sweet 16, Villanova has knocked off #5 West Virginia, #3 Texas Tech and #1 Kansas – the three best teams from the best conference in college basketball.   And they won all three of those games by no less than 12 points.  Villanova scores points almost effortlessly – as they shoot an incredible percentage from three-point range, and have enough talent down low to get offensive rebounds and score in the paint.   And if you look at the matchups, the Villanova players are simply more talented.  I would like to see Michigan win – they are the underdog, and they are from the Big 10.  But if I have to handicap the game, I have to go with the team I picked at the start of the tournament to run the gauntlet and win.  Villanova has done nothing in March that makes me believe they are not the better team in this game.

As for the over/under, Vegas’ line is predicting a score of around 76-69.  Villanova just put 95 points on the board against Kansas – so even with Michigan’s outstanding defense, I have to figure Villanova is going to score 80 points Monday night.  If that is the case, the Wolverines only need to score 65 to cover the over.   I would go with lots of points.  

Lunatic’s Picks:  Villanova (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Villanova 79-62                   Picks Record:             30-45-1  (-110)            Totals Record:  38-29 (+112) – that’s right, the Lunatic somehow managed to be up $2 through this insane exercise.  Considering he normally is so far down by the time the championship game happens that he doesn’t even bother picking it, the Lunatic will gladly accept his imaginary $2 of winnings and consider this year’s handicapping a success!

 

 

Saturday's Final 4 Games

After Elite 8 (-46 despite a losing record):                Picks Record: 28-44-1  (-134)            Totals Record:  36-28 (+88)

Lunatic’s Note / Commentary – I have done relatively poorly from a win percentage, but somehow, I am only down 46 imaginary dollars.  That being said, this is the point in the tournament where two important things happen.  First, I hate the idea that a Lunatic curse could potentially impact the end of the tournament.  So, I don’t want my locking a game causing a team at this point to lose.  They have come too far for some crazy person to ruin it for them.   Second, if I am to place the same amount of wager for the last 6 bets, I would have to go 5-1 to get positive if I only do $20.   If I go all out at $30, I can barely break even if I go 4-2.  And we all know what the compulsive gambler would do – go big or go home.  Thus, all estimates at this point will be $30 – whether I feel great about the pick or not.  

6:09 pm - #3 Michigan (-5.5) vs #11 Loyola-Chicago                                   O/U: 129.5

All season, Loyola-Chicago figures out way to win.  Even in their losses, they keep the games close.  They only lost two games this year by more points than the 5.5 spread – a road game to Boise State where they were missing South Regional Most Outstanding Player Ben Richardson, and a road loss to Milwaukee where they were missing both Richardson and MVC Player of the Year Clayton Custer.  On the other side, in just the tournament, the Wolverines managed to make clutch shots and play outstanding defense.   But in those defensive games, they managed to beat Houston by 1 and Florida State by 4.  I expect that this game is going to be extremely close and a great defensive battle.  Michigan might win (as you would expect the favorite), but if you add in the odds that Loyola keeps this a close game, you have to take Cinderella.   Go Ramblers!!!

Lunatic’s Picks:  Loyola – Chicago (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)

Results:  Michigan 69-57                    Picks Record: 28-45-1  (-164)            Totals Record:  37-28 (+115)

 

 

8:49 pm - #1 Villanova (-5) vs #1 Kansas                                                        O/U: 154.5

This is the third Big 12 team in a row that the Wildcats have played.  Villanova beat West Virginia by 12 in the Sweet 16 and then beat Texas Tech by 12 in the Elite 8.  If I had to handicap the Big 12, while Kansas is obviously better than the Mountaineers and the Red Raiders, I don’t think I would make the Jayhawks a 7 point favorite against those teams.   I have to expect that Villanova is going to continue to be extremely efficient on the offensive end and will cover the spread.  As for the over/under, these lines suggest that Vegas expects the game to be 80-75.   In 25 of the 38 games Villanova has played this year, they have scored more than 85 points.  In 20 of the 38 games Kansas has played, they have outscored 80 points (including all 4 tournament games).  Likelihood says based on both team’s abilities to score points that this game should go over 154.5.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Villanova (30)   Lunatic’s Total:  Over (30)

Results:  Villanova 95-79                   Picks Record: 29-45-1  (-137)            Totals Record:  38-28 (+142)

 

Saturday's Elite 8 Round Games

After Sweet 16 (-38 thanks to a nice comeback on the Sweet 16 games):             Picks Record:           26-33-1  (-130)            Totals Record:  34-26 (+92)

6:09 pm - #9 Kansas State (-1.5) vs #11 Loyola - Chicago                          O/U: 126.5

There are defensive battles, and then there is going to be the first game of the Elite 8.   Will we even get someone to 50?  It is hard to tell.   I was really impressed with how Kansas State managed to beat Kentucky.  But the thing that keeps going through my head is the extra pass that Loyola always seems to make to an open player.  I have to go with the Ramblers – it would be so cool watching an 11 seed in the Final Four.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Loyola – Chicago (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  Loyola - Chicago 78-62                    Picks Record: 27-33-1  (-112)            Totals Record:  34-27 (+72)

 

8:49 pm - #3 Michigan (-4.5) vs #9 Florida State                                         O/U: 143.5

All Florida State has done is beat Xavier and then pound Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.   All Michigan has done is win the Big 10 Tournament, struggle against Montana and Houston, and then blow up against Texas A&M for 99 points.   I don’t think Michigan scores 99 in this game, in fact, I suspect Florida State will turn this into a defensive battle.   But Michigan has shown that they can win games that are defensive battles and win games that are fast paced high scoring affairs.   Not to mention conference tournament champions and regular season champions tend to rise to the top at this point in the Tournament.  Take the Wolverines into the Final Four.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Michigan (20)   Lunatic’s Total:  Under (20)

Results:  Michigan 58-54                    Picks Record: 27-43-1  (-132)            Totals Record:  35-27 (+90)

 

 

Sunday's Elite 8 Round Games

2:20 pm - #1 Villanova (-6.5) vs #3 Texas Tech                                 O/U: 144.5

At first, I worried about this line because of how Texas Tech thoroughly beat Purdue.  But from a handicapping perspective, I still believe that Villanova is the best team remaining in the tournament.  And I think that it is interesting that Vegas have the Red Raiders as more of an underdog than West Virginia was.    Since Villanova was able to cover against West Virginia, I am going to take them over Texas Tech as well – I figure their guards will find away to score against Texas Tech’s defense.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Villanova (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Villanova 71-59                   Picks Record: 28-43-1  (-114)            Totals Record:  35-28 (+70)

 

8:49 pm - #1 Kansas vs #2 Duke (-3.5)                                    O/U: 155.5

Another telling line from Vegas.  The #1 seed in the Midwest is a 3.5 point underdog.   When does that happen?  What’s even crazier.   I think that they are right.   When I picked my bracket, I had Duke taking out the Jayhawks – and with the line being only 3.5 points, I have to go with that original pick.  Expect a game with lots of offense where the Blue Devils head to San Antonio.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Duke (20)   Lunatic’s Total:  Over (20)

Results:  Kansas 83-78                        Picks Record: 28-44-1  (-134)            Totals Record:  36-28 (+88)

 

 

 

Thursday's Sweet 16 Round Games

After Second Round (-126 thanks to all the upsets on Sunday):                      Picks Record: 21-30-1  (-170)            Totals Record:  28-24 (+44)

7:07 pm - #7 Nevada (-1) vs #11 Loyola - Chicago                                       O/U: 143.5

This should be a great game.  Will Nevada’s amazing offense win, or will Loyola’s amazing defense win.  I am just too nervous about Nevada’s last couple of games where they have fallen behind by double digits.  Loyola has had to come back, but they have stayed close throughout the game.  I am going to go with Loyola’s defense.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Loyola – Chicago (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  Loyola 69-68                        Picks Record: 22-30-1  (-152)            Totals Record:  29-24 (+62)

7:37 pm - #3 Michigan (-2.5) vs #7 Texas A&M                                            O/U: 136.5

Michigan is an incredibly hot team at the moment – and they survived a scare, something that tends to be necessary to make a deep run.  Texas A&M has been up and down all year – I am nervous that after such a high of beating a Tar Heels, this game will have the Aggies fall back to earth.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Michigan (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Michigan 99-72                    Picks Record: 23-30-1  (-134)            Totals Record:  30-24 (+80)

 

9:37 pm - #5 Kentucky (-5.5) vs #9 Kansas State                             O/U: 137.5

After all the complaining Kentucky has done about their draw, they have the potential if Loyola pulls the upset that #9 Kansas State will be the best seed they meet.  I am sure that any of the other top teams would love this chance.  Kansas State had a nice run, but I suspect Kentucky will take advantage of their fortune and win this game.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Kentucky (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  Kansas State 61-58              Picks Record: 23-31-1  (-164)            Totals Record:  31-24 (+98)

 

 

10:07 pm - #4 Gonzaga (-5.5) vs #9 Florida State                            O/U: 152.5

I am struggling with this one.  I originally had handicapped that Gonzaga would upset Xavier.  So, despite Florida State’s impressive victory, I still have to expect that Gonzaga will win this game.  I am just not as confident about the spread.  I do feel more comfortable that the pace of this game will be fast leading to a high scoring game.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Gonzaga (10)   Lunatic’s Total:  Over (30)

Results:  Florida State 75-60              Picks Record: 23-32-1  (-174)            Totals Record:  31-25 (+68)

 

 

Friday's Sweet 16 Round Games

7:07 pm - #1 Kansas (-5) vs #5 Clemson                                 O/U: 142.5

Kansas and Clemson both scored over 80 points in their Second Round wins – so I really like the over in this game.  As far as the spread, I am a lot more nervous about this.  Kansas barely came back to cover against the 16 seed, and couldn’t cover against Seton Hall.  Clemson is better than Seton Hall – so I am going to very carefully take the points.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Clemson (10)   Lunatic’s Total:  Over (30)

Results:  Kansas 80-76                        Picks Record: 24-32-1  (-165)            Totals Record:  32-25 (+95)

 

 

7:37 pm - #1 Villanova (-5) vs #5 West Virginia                   O/U: 152.5

I think Villanova might be the best team left in the tournament.  If I get a chance to take the best team in the tournament with only a 5 point spread, I have to go big with it.  I do think West Virginia’s press will lead to a high scoring game, with a lot of fast breaks for when Villanova’s talented backcourt beats the press.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Villanova (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Villanova 90-78                   Picks Record: 25-32-1  (-138)            Totals Record:  33-25 (+113)

 

 

9:37 pm - #1 Duke (-11.5) vs #11 Syracuse                            O/U: 133

I know that Duke won during the regular season by 16, but this is the NCAA Tournament, and Syracuse’s vaunted zone is playing incredible defense.  I think Duke wins this game, but I think Syracuse turns this game into a classic first team to 50 wins.   In that type of game, it is tough to win by double digits – take Syracuse and the under.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Syracuse (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)

Results:  Duke 69-65              Picks Record: 26-32-1  (-120)            Totals Record:  33-26 (+83)

 

9:57 pm - #2 Purdue (-1.5) vs #3 Texas Tech                                     O/U: 137.5

You all know the drill.   This is a biased, can’t go against my Boilers, pick.  Go Boilers!!!!!!

Lunatic’s Picks:  Purdue(10)   Lunatic’s Total:  Over (10)  

Results:  Texas Tech 78-65                 Picks Record: 26-33-1  (-130)            Totals Record:  34-26 (+92)

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday's Second Round Games

After First Round (+57 thanks to the Over/Under):             Picks Record: 15-20-1 (-68)            Totals Record:  22-14 (+125)

12:10 pm - #1 Villanova (-11) vs #9 Alabama                                   O/U: 148

I think that Villanova is going to win this game.  The key to covering the 11 points is whether Villanova’s guards can stop Collin Sexton.   I also suspect the #1 seeds are going to play with a little bit more of a sense of urgency now that they have seen one get upset.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Villanova (10)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Villanova 81-58                   Picks Record: 16-20-1  (-59)  Totals Record:  22-15 (+105)

 

2:40 pm - #2 Duke (-9.5) vs #7 Rhode Island                                     O/U: 149.5

Rhode Island came up with a really big victory against Oklahoma.  But my gut is that Duke is going to create too many matchup issues for the Rams.  Take the Blue Devils in a high scoring game.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Duke (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Duke 87-62              Picks Record: 17-20-1  (-41)  Totals Record:  22-16 (+85)

 

5:15 pm - #5 Kentucky (-5.5) vs #13 Buffalo                                     O/U: 156

As much as I dislike Calapari, I don’t see Buffalo being able to shoot the lights out two nights in a row.   I will be rooting for Buffalo – but I think if you are a gambler, you have to go all-in on Kentucky with only 5.5 points against the MAC champion.  And who knows, maybe me locking this game helps the Lunatic Curse come out.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Kentucky (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)

Results:  Kentucky 95-75                    Picks Record: 18-20-1  (-14)  Totals Record:  22-17 (+55)

 

6:10 pm - #3 Tennessee (-5) vs Loyola - Chicago                             O/U: 130.5

This game has the feeling of a defensive battle where the first team to 50 wins.  I also think the game is more of a coin flip than some of the others – remember that Loyola’s big regular season victory was a 6 point road victory at Florida.  So, they are definitely capable of hanging with a tough SEC team (for reference, Tennessee beat Florida by 5 at home).  I am not going to go big here, but every year, there is that one bracket that completely blows up.  It already looks like the South is that bracket – so lets pick more upsets.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Loyola – Chicago  (10)   Lunatic’s Total:  Under (30)

Results:  Loyola 63-62                        Picks Record: 19-20-1  (-5)    Totals Record:  23-17 (+82)

 

7:10 pm - #1 Kansas (-4.5) vs #8 Seton Hall                                      O/U: 154

Well, this makes me a little nervous, because I think Seton Hall is pretty good.  And Kansas let Penn get ahead of them before covering.  And there is always my trepidation from picking Big 12 teams – they have a history of letting me down.  But I still come down to the fact that as a gambler, you never get the chance to take a #1 seed by only 4.5 points against an 8 seed.   You have to take Kansas in this situation – if you believe Kansas is going to be leading at the end, they only will need a couple of free throws at the end of the game to cover 4.5.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Kansas (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Kansas 83-79                        Picks Record: 19-21-1  (-35)  Totals Record:  24-17 (+100)

 

7:45 pm - #4 Gonzaga (-3) vs #5 Ohio State                                      O/U: 142.5

These two teams played in November – and Gonzaga won 86-59.   I know the teams are playing different basketball right now.  But I can’t think of a game that should be more of a lock.  Gonzaga is a 3 point favorite against a team it beat by 27 earlier in the year……

Lunatic’s Picks:  Gonzaga (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Gonzaga 90-84                     Picks Record: 20-21-1  (-8)    Totals Record:  25-17 (+118)

 

8:40 pm - #3 Texas Tech (-2) vs #6 Florida                                        O/U: 134

With a 2 point line, it is who you think will win the game outright – you can’t count as a gambler that the game is going to be a 1 point game.  In this case, I trust the SEC team more than the Big 12 team.   Go Gators!!!!

Lunatic’s Picks:  Florida (20)   Lunatic’s Total:  Over (20)

Results:  Texas Tech 69-66                 Picks Record: 20-22-1  (-28)  Totals Record:  26-17 (+136)

 

9:40 pm - #3 Michigan (-3) vs #6 Houston                                        O/U: 134

I really like Michigan in this game.  They are extremely hot right now, and I think the Wolverines will carry that momentum into the Sweet 16.  I might be biased, because I still have visions from the Big 10 tournament, when the Wolverines dominated both Michigan State and Purdue.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Michigan (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results:  Michigan 64-63                    Picks Record: 20-23-1  (-58)  Totals Record:  26-18 (+126)

 

Sunday's Second Round Games

12:10 pm - #2 Purdue (-3.5) vs #10 Butler                             O/U: 143.5

As is my typical policy, I can not bet against my Boilers – and as is my typical policy, since I know I am biased, I will put the minimum on it.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Purdue (10)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results:  Purdue 76-73                       Picks Record: 20-24-1  (-68)  Totals Record:  27-18 (+135)

 

2:40 pm - #3 Michigan State (-8) vs #11 Syracuse                                       O/U: 129.5

Just like Kentucky, Syracuse is one of those teams that I can’t go with.  Michigan State is the better team in the game, and Syracuse is not scoring a lot of points.  I am going to predict that Michigan State speeds up the pace of this game and prevents Syracuse from turning it into a defensive slog.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Michigan State (10)     Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Syracuse 55-53                    Picks Record: 20-25-1  (-78)  Totals Record:  27-19 (+115)

 

5:15 pm - #2 North Carolina (-6) vs #7 Texas A&M                                    O/U: 151.5

I like North Carolina here to speed the pace up and run away from the Aggies.   I don’t think Texas A&M will be able to stop them on defense.

Lunatic’s Picks:  North Carolina (20)   Lunatic’s Total:  Over (20)

Results:  Texas A&M 86-65                Picks Record: 20-26-1  (-98)  Totals Record:  27-19 (+95)

 

6:10 pm - #2 Cincinnati (-8) vs #7 Nevada                              O/U: 137

I misjudged Nevada in the first round – they came out and played a great game against Texas.  I don’t know that they have enough to take out Cincinnati, but I do think that they will keep the game close.   With 8 points, I think you have to take Nevada – especially if Cincinnati turns the game into a defensive battle.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Nevada (20)         Lunatic’s Total:  Under (20)

Results:  Nevada 75-73          Picks Record: 21-26-1  (-80)  Totals Record:  27-20 (+75)

 

7:10 pm - #4 Auburn (-1) vs #5 Clemson                                            O/U: 146.5

Vegas says this game is a coin flip.   So does the Lunatic – if I was in the Sportsbook, I would stay away from this game and just enjoy what should be a great basketball game.  Before the tournament, I thought Auburn would win this game – and my picks so far have been pretty good.  Clemson looked a little better in their first round game, so this makes me a little nervous, but it is hard to figure out in those lower seed games if you have a small conference champion who is not seeded properly.   So, I will stick with my initial gut pick.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Auburn (10)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results:  Clemson 84-53         Picks Record: 21-27-1  (-90)  Totals Record:  27-22 (+65)

 

7:45 pm - #9 Kansas State (-10) vs #16 UMBC                                              O/U: 135.5

UMBC shocked the world has become the most awesome Cinderella team ever.  But here is the thing.  How many times do we see a team like UMBC totally surprise a lower seed to get to the next round, only to get blown out in their next game.  Kansas State beat a pretty good Creighton team in the first round, and is not going to overlook the Retrievers.  I would love to see UMBC continue their magical run here, but from a true handicapping perspective, you have to take Kansas State.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Kansas State (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Kansas State 50-43              Picks Record: 21-28-1  (-120)            Totals Record:  27-23 (+45)

 

8:40 pm - #1 Xavier (-5.5) vs #9 Florida State                                              O/U: 159

This is kind of like the Kansas game.  Whenever you get to take a #1 seed in the second round and only have to give up 5.5 points, you lock it in.   Xavier should be able to handle Florida State and head to the Sweet 16.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Xavier (30)           Lunatic’s Total:  Under (10)

Results:  Florida State 75-70              Picks Record: 21-29-1  (-150)            Totals Record:  28-23 (+54)

 

9:40 pm - #5 West Virginia (-12.5) vs Marshall                                           O/U: 159.5

I am a little surprised that after Marshall beat Wichita State by 6 in the first round, that they are still a 12.5 point underdog to the Mountaineers.  I would think that if Marshall can hang with the Shockers, they can do it against West Virginia.  I expect that West Virginia wins this game, but the Conference USA tourney champion is going to make it close.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Marshall (20)   Lunatic’s Total:  Under (10)

Results:  West Virginia 94-71             Picks Record: 21-30-1  (-170)            Totals Record:  28-24 (+44)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday's First Round Games

12:15 pm - #7 Texas A&M (-2.5) vs #10 Providence                       O/U: 138

I was a lot more confident about this until I started watching games this Thursday and seeing the Big East look really, really good.  I am going to stick with my first gut instinct, but I am not going to bet much on the outcome.  But I do think both teams will be able to score enough points to cover the over/under.

Lunatic’s Picks: Texas A&M (10)                    Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Texas A&M 73-69                           Picks Record: 11-9-1 (+59)    Totals Record:  11-10 (-10)

12:40 pm - #2 Purdue (-20.5) vs #15 CSU Fullerton                                    O/U: 146.5

Can’t bet against my Boilers – even though I think 20.5 points is too much.  I do think the more likely situation is that this game doesn’t see as many points as you would expect.

Lunatic’s Picks: Purdue (10)               Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  Purdue 74-48                                  Picks Record: 12-9-1 (+68)    Totals Record:  12-10 (+8)

 

1:30 pm - #4 Wichita State (-12) vs #13 Marshall                           O/U: 165.5

The Conference USA tournament channel is on a run and going to put up a fight.  While I think the Shockers will prevail, I see this game being closer than 12 points.  Also know that 165.5 points is a lot of points.  Vegas is basically saying they expect the score of the game to be 89-77, I think the points scored is going to be less.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Marshall (20)           Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)

Results:  Marshall 81-75                   Picks Record: 13-9-1 (+86)    Totals Record:  13-10 (+35)

 

2:00 pm - #2 Cincinnati (-13.5)  vs #15 Georgia State                    O/U: 129.5

I think Cincinnati is going to turn this into their typically knock-down defensive battle where first team to 50 wins.  It is tough to cover 13.5 points when you score in the 50s.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Georgia State (10)               Lunatic’s Total:  Under (20)

Results:  Cincinnati 68-53                 Picks Record: 13-10-1 (+76)  Totals Record:  14-10 (+53)

 

2:45 pm - #2 North Carolina (-19.5) vs #15 Lipscomb                                            O/U: 162.5

I expect that the Tar Heels take this game.  While I expect a fast pace game, I just don’t see Lipscomb scoring enough points to help UNC cover the over.

Lunatic’s Picks:  North Carolina (20)              Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  North Carolina 84-66                      Picks Record: 13-11-1 (+56)  Totals Record:  15-10 (+71)

3:10 pm - #7 Arkansas vs #10 Butler (-1.5)                                       O/U: 151

I have a few rules that I tend to stick to when picking games in March.  One of those is never bet against Butler – they somehow tend to own March.  Vegas thinks the same way, as they have the 10 seed as the slight favorite.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Butler (20)                Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Butler 79-62            Picks Record: 14-11-1 (+74)  Totals Record:  15-11 (+51)

4:00 pm - #5 West Virginia (-10.5) vs #12 Murray State               O/U: 145.5

I considered this for a little bit as my 12 seed upset.  Ohio State is coming off almost a two week break and will be rusty.  And South Dakota State has won a lot of games this year.  But I think Ohio State is going to have too much firepower.  Take the Buckeyes and the over.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Murray State (10)                Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  West Virginia 85-68            Picks Record: 14-12-1 (+64)  Totals Record:  15-12 (+31)

4:30 pm - #7 Nevada  vs #10 Texas (-1)                                              O/U: 143.5

If Nevada hadn’t lost one of their starters to injury late in the season, this line and my opinion would be different.  To be fair, Nevada might have been ranked higher than that.  Texas is one of those teams that snuck into the tournament, and is going to be playing with nothing to lose.  I think that the Longhorns will take this one.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Texas (30)                 Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Nevada 87-83          Picks Record: 14-13-1 (+34)  Totals Record:  16-12 (+58)

 

6:50 pm - #8 Creighton (-1) vs #9 Kansas State                                           O/U: 144.5

When I looked at this game, I thought it was a coin flip.  Apparently, Vegas thinks the same – with them giving Creighton the slight edge.  Considering how strong the Big East has done so far, I am going to take Creighton.  While I am not confident in the final score, I do think these teams score enough points to cover the over/under.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Creighton (10)                      Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Kansas State 69-59             Picks Record: 14-14-1 (+24)  Totals Record:  16-13 (+28)

7:10 pm - #3 Michigan State (-14.5) vs #14 Bucknell                                             O/U: 148

I don’t think Michigan State has any trouble with Bucknell – and then there is the rule of never betting against Tom Izzo in March.  Take the Spartans.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Michigan State (30)             Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Michigan State 82-78                     Picks Record: 14-15-1 (-6)     Totals Record:  17-13 (+46)

 

7:20 pm - #1 Xavier (-19.5) vs #16 Texas Southern                                     O/U: 160

I never like the 20 point lines.  There is no reason to expect Xavier doesn’t easily win this game.  Hard to know if they will win by 20 or not.   I feel slightly better about the over/under.  It will be a fast pace game, but I don’t expect Texas Southern to score enough points to help Xavier cover the over….

Lunatic’s Picks:  Xavier (10)               Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  Xavier 102-83                      Picks Record: 14-16-1 (-16)   Totals Record:  17-14 (+26)

 

7:27 pm - #4 Auburn (-9) vs #13 Charleston                                     O/U: 148

I would have totally stayed away from this game in Vegas.  I don’t have a lot of confidence that Charleston can hang with an SEC regular season co-champion.  But Auburn struggled at the end of the season, so don’t know that I am that confident here.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Auburn (10)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results:  Auburn 62-58                      Picks Record: 14-17-1 (-26)   Totals Record:  18-14 (+35)

 

9:20 pm - #1 Virginia (-21) vs #16 UMBC                               O/U: 121

The loss of De’Andre Hunter is going to be tough for a team that looked like a Final 4 lock.  But the Cavaliers aren’t going to struggle against UMBC.  They will even cover the over/under by scoring more points than they normally do.  Not convinced UMBC will break 50.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Virginia (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  UMBC 74-54                        Picks Record: 14-18-1 (-46)   Totals Record:  19-14 (+53)

 

9:40 pm - #6 TCU (-4.5) vs #11 Syracuse                                            O/U: 136.5

I know that Syracuse won the play-in game, but they didn’t look like they could score any points.   I normally like taking the play-in game winner – as they normally go and prove the Selection Committee right.  But barely beating a team like Arizona State that probably should have been in the NIT, and now upsetting a talented team like TCU – take the Horned Frogs.

Lunatic’s Picks:  TCU (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)

Results:  Syracuse 57-52                    Picks Record: 14-19-1 (-66)   Totals Record:  20-14 (+80)

 

9:50 pm - #8 Missouri  vs #9 Florida State (-1.5)                             O/U: 147

I tend to like to take the worse seed when Vegas considers that team a favorite.   I think that Missouri has had an impressive season to make it to the Tourney without their star player.  But I don’t expect them to beat Florida State.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Florida State (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  Florida State 67-54              Picks Record: 15-19-1 (-48)   Totals Record:  21-14 (+98)

 

9:57 pm - #5 Clemson (-5) vs #12 New Mexico State                                 O/U: 133

Clemson has struggled a little towards the end of the season.  And New Mexico State has shown from earlier in the season that they can hang with an ACC team.  I think New Mexico State comes away with the upset.

Lunatic’s Picks:  New Mexico State (20)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Clemson 79-68                    Picks Record: 15-20-1 (-68)   Totals Record:  22-14 (+125)

 

 

 

 

Thursday's First Round Games

12:15 pm - #7 Rhode Island (-2) vs #10 Oklahoma                         O/U: 158

After St. Bonaventure’s win, I was thinking about going with the Atlantic 10 regular season champs.  Maybe the A-10 was much stronger than I thought.  But then I sat there and thought about two typical things that happen in March.   Teams that the critics (including myself) say potentially don’t belong end up pulling an upset.  And the Sooners also have the best player on the court – the Sooners struggled down the stretch – but take them to win tomorrow.

Lunatic’s Picks: Oklahoma (10)                      Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Rhode Island 83-78             Picks Record: 2-3 (+5)           Totals Record:  3-2 (+6)

12:40 pm - #3 Tennessee (-12) vs Wright State                               O/U: 131.5

This line for both the spread and the over/under is right around where I would have handicapped it – so I will go with the team favored to win. 

Lunatic’s Picks: Tennessee (10)                     Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results:  Tennessee 73-47                 Picks Record: 3-3 (+14)         Totals Record:  3-3 (-4)

1:30 pm - #4 Gonzaga (-12.5) vs UNC - Greensboro                                   O/U: 136

This is one of the reasons that I had such a hard time picking a 12 seed or 13 seed to win.  UNC – Greensboro is a really good team, and I think they keep this game close.  But I don’t think they end up beating Gonzaga.  Take UNCG with the 12.5 points, but the Zags survive and advance.

Lunatic’s Picks:  UNC - Greensboro (10)                    Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Gonzaga 68-64                     Picks Record: 4-3 (+23)         Totals Record:  3-4 (-34)

2:00 pm - #1 Kansas (-13.5) vs #16 Penn                                           O/U: 146.5

This feels like my gift spread.  You don’t ever see #1 seeds as only 13.5 point favorites.  To be fair, you don’t normally see 16 seeds as good as Penn – but don’t be fooled.  This is not where a 16 seed finally upsets a 1 seed.  Take advantage of the opportunity and go big on the Jayhawks

Lunatic’s Picks:  Kansas (30)              Lunatic’s Total:  Under (20)

Results:  Kansas 76-60                       Picks Record: 5-3 (+50)         Totals Record:  4-4 (-16)

2:45 pm - #2 Duke (-20.5) vs #15 Iona                                    O/U: 157

Not sure how Vegas decided the 2 seed should be a favorite by 7 more points than the 1 seed.  I guess they think Iona should be the 16 seed and Penn should be the 15 seed – it happens that Vegas doesn’t agree with the Committee.  That being said, Iona only lost by 9 at Syracuse and by 6 at Rhode Island.  Neither of those teams are as good as the Blue Devils, but it show that Iona isn’t going to be a complete push-over.  Duke wins comfortably, but not enough to cover 20.5 points.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Iona (30)                   Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Duke 89-67              Picks Record: 5-4 (+20)         Totals Record:  4-5 (-36)

3:10 pm - #6 Miami FL (-1.5) vs Loyola - Chicago                            O/U: 133

Miami is going to miss one of their injured players.  That along with the fact that Loyola is an extremely good team that plays tough defense, and this looks like the perfect place to pick a Cinderella team.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Loyola (20)               Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results:  Loyola 64-62                        Picks Record: 6-4 (+38)         Totals Record:  5-5 (-27)

4:00 pm - #5 Ohio State (-7.5) vs South Dakota State                                O/U: 147

I considered this for a little bit as my 12 seed upset.  Ohio State is coming off almost a two week break and will be rusty.  And South Dakota State has won a lot of games this year.  But I think Ohio State is going to have too much firepower.  Take the Buckeyes and the over.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Ohio State (10)                    Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Ohio State 81-73                 Picks Record: 7-4 (+47)         Totals Record:  6-5 (-9)

4:30 pm - #8 Seton Hall (-2.5) vs #9 North Carolina State                                    O/U: 157.5

I think that North Carolina State is going to be just a little bit better that Seton Hall in what should be an entertaining game.  But I wouldn’t bet much on it.

Lunatic’s Picks:  NC State (10)                        Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results:  Seton Hall 94-83                  Picks Record: 7-5 (+37)         Totals Record:  6-6 (-19)

6:50 pm - #1 Villanova (-23.5) vs #16 Radford                                             O/U: 140

Villanova is the favorite to win the tournament.  But because of that, I suspect that their lines will be slightly higher than they should be to avoid having all the money go on them.  23.5 points is a lot to cover, so I will reluctantly take Radford.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Radford (10)             Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Villanova 87-61                   Picks Record: 7-6 (+27)         Totals Record:  7-6 (+8)

7:10 pm - #5 Kentucky (-5) vs #12 Davidson                                    O/U: 143

I think that Davidson has all the characteristics of a 12 seed that pulls an upset except one.   Their draw put them up against the SEC Tournament champion Kentucky Wildcats.  You typically see a team that did well for most of the year and struggled down the stretch – then they get a team like Davidson and get upset.  Kentucky is hot going into the tournament – this is not where your 12 seed upset will happen.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Kentucky (30)                       Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results:  Kentucky 78-73                    Picks Record: 7-6-1 (+37)      Totals Record:  8-6 (+26)

7:20 pm - #6 Houston (-4) vs #11 San Diego State                         O/U: 136

This game scares me a little bit – but Houston had a fantastic season in the American this year.  They are every bit the equal of Wichita State and even Cincinnati.  Being comparable to a 4 seed and a 2 seed is pretty good.   San Diego State is also an excellent team, but I have to take Houston with the line only being 4 points.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Houston (10)                        Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  Houston 67-65                     Picks Record: 7-7-1 (+27)      Totals Record:  9-6 (+44)

7:27 pm - #3 Texas Tech (-11) vs #14 Stephen F Austin                             O/U: 137.5

I was a little surprised when Texas Tech got a 3 seed – I thought there will a few other teams that would be ahead of them.  And Stephen F Austin is a talented mid-major who can hang with the Red Raiders.  I don’t know that they will completely pull an upset, but with 11 points, I am going with SFA.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Stephen F Austin (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results:  Texas Tech 70-60                 Picks Record: 8-7-1 (+54)      Totals Record:  9-7 (+34)

9:20 pm - #8 Virginia Tech (-2) vs #9 Alabama                                 O/U: 141.5

Normally, I would go with the ACC team in this place.  But, Alabama has the best player on the court in Collin Sexton – and as we saw this weekend, he totally has the ability to take over the game.  With the line at only 2 points, I would take the Tide to roll.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Alabama (10)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)

Results:  Alabama 86-83                    Picks Record: 9-7-1 (+63)      Totals Record:  9-8 (+14)

9:40 pm - #4 Arizona (-8.5) vs #13 Buffalo                                         O/U: 158.5

Once again – reason for difficulties in picking Cinderella.  Buffalo fits many of the characteristics of a giant killer – but Arizona is their conference’s regular season and tournament champion.  And Buffalo has to travel out west to play Arizona….   I think that Arizona’s big man (who I still believe was paid) is too much.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Arizona (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Buffalo 89-68                       Picks Record: 9-8-1 (+33)      Totals Record:  9-9 (-16)

9:50 pm - #3 Michigan (-11) vs #14 Montana                                   O/U: 135

This is a good starting point for the Wolverines.  Montana really hasn’t played closely against a team that is as good as Michigan – this should end up with Michigan winning big.

Lunatic’s Picks:  Michigan (30)   Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results:  Michigan 61-47                    Picks Record: 10-8-1 (+60)    Totals Record:  10-9 (-7)

9:57 pm - #6 Florida (-5.5) vs #11 St. Bonaventure                                     O/U: 143

I have flip-flopped on this game multiple times at this point.  If you consider the profiles, you have to take Florida.  If you consider that Florida is streaky, the Bonnies have some momentum after knocking off a good UCLA team, and the fact that it is not unheard of that the play-in team continues to win, the pick here is St. Bonaventure.  Because I love the little guy, I will take the Bonnies if I get 5.5 points.

Lunatic’s Picks:  St Bonaventure (10)   Lunatic’s Total: Over (30)

Results:  Florida 77-62                       Picks Record: 10-9-1 (+50)    Totals Record:  10-10 (-37)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday's First Round Games

6:40 pm - #16 Radford (-4.5) vs #16 LIU Brooklyn               O/U: 138.5

Radford actually played a few major conference teams, and they even managed to only lose by 10 to Ohio State – which for a team from the Big South is relatively respectable.  The toughest team that LIU Brooklyn played this season was Wagner – ranked at 109 in the RPI.  Radford played better teams and did better against their schedule – so I will take the Big South champion

Lunatic’s Picks: Radford (20)             Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)

Results: Radford 71-61                       Picks Record: 1-0 (+18)         Totals Record: 0-1 (-20)

9:10 pm - #11 UCLA (-3.5) vs #11 St. Bonaventure             O/U: 155

In my mind, this is a horrible break for St. Bonaventure.  The Pac 12 was completely neglected by the Selection Committee.  UCLA beat both Arizona and Kentucky this year.  They deserved better than a 11 seed.  I always root for the little guy, so would love to see the Bonnies do well – but I suspect that the Bruins will win this game and cover the spread.

Lunatic’s Picks: UCLA (20)                  Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results: St. Bonaventure 65-58         Picks Record: 1-1 (-2)            Totals Record:  1-1 (-11)

 

Wednesday's First Round Games

6:40 pm - #16 Texas Southern (-5.5) vs #16 North Carolina Central                 O/U: 146.5

This feels like a trap to me.  But I can’t stay away from the trap.  The only team that entered the tournament with a losing overall record is a 5.5 favorite.  That seems like a lot of points for a team that lost more games than they won.  I don’t know much about either team, but I have to take North Carolina Central and the points in this one.

Lunatic’s Picks: North Carolina Central (10)             Lunatic’s Total: Over (10)

Results: Texas Southern 64-48                      Picks Record: 1-2 (-12)          Totals Record:   1-2 (-21)

 

9:10 pm - #11 Arizona State (-1.5) vs #11 Syracuse                                   O/U: 143.5

Talk about the battle of the unwanteds.  There has been lots of complaints, whether it be by me or by media experts, about Arizona State not deserving to be in the tournament.  But Syracuse was actually believed by more people that they would be NIT bound.  Every year, it is the teams that people believe shouldn’t be in the tournament who end up surprising and winning some games.  The Orange are the team that were least expected to be here – so they are the team to take.

Lunatic’s Picks: Syracuse (30)            Lunatic’s Total: Under (10)

Results:  Syracuse 60-56                     Picks Record:  2-2 (+15)                    Totals Record:  2-2 (-12)