The Lunatic’s Insane
Handicapping
It is almost an inevitability that many of you will Stomp the
Lunatic – and we all know that drives the Lunatic crazy. He loves college basketball so much that he feels
he has to show that he can provide tons of brilliant analysis and insight to
predict the games. So, he has created
this extremely time-consumptive part of his web-blog where since he knows his
bracket is going to burn in flames, he will demonstrate his brilliance of
picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines. Because if he can't beat half the people in
the pool, it is clearly obvious that he can beat the people making tons of
money on compulsive gamblers.
Lunatic Disclosure #1: This is for recreational purposes only. The Lunatic does not promote using this as a
guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!!
Lunatic Disclosure #2: In case you haven't read the first disclosure,
maybe this will convince you. I have
never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.
Lunatic Disclosure #3: In case you haven't read the first two
disclosures, I have lost imaginary money in this silly feature for most of the
years - I am not really sure why I keep doing it because it takes a lot of
effort. Oh yeah - I am crazy about
college basketball.
Last year, for the first time in five years, I ended up with
more imaginary dollars than I started with (although I guess in theory that is
impossible – how can you have more of something that doesn’t exist in the first
place). But the Lunatic’s blog is not a
place to get into semantics – I am crazy after all. But back to that imaginary profit. It was a whopping $5. That’s right – after picking the winners
against the spread and picking if the game would go over or under the total for
67 games, all I had to show for the countless hours I spent handicapping these
games was a lousy $5 (and that was an imaginary $5 – it won’t even buy you a
milk shake or a sandwich at your favorite fast food restaurant – because it
isn’t real. I guess it would buy you
something if you could find an imaginary store / restaurant – but I
digress). This journey was ridiculous. That is because, as a handicapper, you would
think that you would be good at picking the spreads. That was not me – I went 29-45-1 to lose $137
imaginary dollars (thank goodness they were imaginary). But somehow or another, I killed it on the
over/unders – going 38-28 for $142 imaginary dollars
– creating the $5 of imaginary winnings.
So, once again, if you didn’t believe any of the disclosures – I have
done this for so many years – and the year I finally win, I come away with
$5. You might as well take your money
and buy a lottery ticket – it will probably end up with the same result, but it
will take a lot less time and you won’t have to fly to Vegas (unless you are
going to Imaginary Vegas – then you should feel free to have lots of fun with
this – although that would likely mean you are crazier than me).
To give myself a chance (since obviously, some of the closer
games, I would just normally leave alone - however, what fun would it be if I
didn't pick every game), I tier my imaginary bets into 10 (no clue), 20 (some
confidence), 30 (closest to a lock).
Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit my no clues...... Also, since there are so many first round games, I will probably be brief.
NCAA Championship Game
Current Status: Picks Record: 32-34 (-119) Totals
Record: 39-27-1 (+227)
LUNATIC’S NOTE: That makes total sense – after watching so
many games of the tournament, I got both picks against the spread wrong, and I
got both picks against the over/under correct.
That means that no matter what I do in the championship game, I end up
ahead. And that is probably a good
thing, because I have no clue what the right pick would be for this game.
6:09 pm - #1 Virginia (-1.5) vs #3 Texas Tech O/U: 118
Texas Tech’s defense was incredible in shutting down the
Michigan State Spartans. Virginia’s
defense was incredible in shutting down the Auburn Tigers. Everyone expects this to be a slow-paced
defensive battle. And it absolutely will
be a slow-paced defensive battle. Texas Tech
has been playing with a chip on their shoulder the whole tournament – they were
ready to prove everyone wrong that they belong to be mentioned with the best. Virginia has been on a mission with the hopes
that they can erase last year’s debacle in the first round by winning the
entire tournament. To be fair to both
teams, neither has anything left that they need to prove – they are elite defensive
teams that have earned their chance to win a national championship. But with the line being 1.5 points, you have
to pick the team you think is going to win the game. I have to believe that team is Virginia. The thing that normally helps Texas Tech is
that their defense speeds teams up and they make mistakes. Virginia plays with the intention of being in
a defensive battle – and they simply don’t panic because they haven’t scored in
a few minutes. This is the thing that
pushes the decision for me. Texas Tech
is 31-6 this season – which is crazy impressive. Virginia is 65-6 in the last two
seasons. That’s right – the Virginia
Cavaliers play a crazy defensive, slow-paced game that tends to lead to close
games, and somehow or another, they have only lost 6 games in two seasons. (Oh – and two of those games were to this
year’s Duke team while they were at full strength). I just have to think that the Cavaliers are
going to find another crazy way to win.
As for the over/under, I have surprised myself here. While I suspect this is going to be a great
defensive battle, I think they go over the spread line. Basically, Vegas thinks the score of this
game is going to be 60-58. Texas Tech
went 8 minutes against Michigan State and only scored 4 points – and they still
found their way to 61. Virginia shot horribly
from the field against Auburn – and they still found their way to 62. I am not expecting this game to get too much
above the over/under – but I think they surprise everyone and have more offense
that what people expect. So, take
Virginia and the over. I think……. Maybe…….
Lunatic’s Picks: Virginia
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Picks Record: Totals Record:
Saturday’s Final Four Games
Current status after Elite 8: Picks
Record: 32-32 (-59) Totals
Record: 37-26-1 (+173)
LUNATIC’S NOTE: At this point, thanks to doing a fantastic
job on the over/under again this year, the Lunatic is up $114 imaginary
dollars. It is important to realize that
at this point, the Lunatic could simply bet $10 on each of the remaining 6
picks (since that would be accurate – he has no clue at this point what will
happen), and he would be able to leave the imaginary Lunatic casino’s
sportsbook ahead. But there is no fun
in that. We all know what a gambler
would do if they were up $114 – they would bet big to try to win even more
money. If the Lunatic bets the highest
amount of $30 on each of these bets, and goes just 2 for 6, he still ends up
ahead – so why not go big. There is another
selfish reason to do this – if we are betting $30 out of a crazy gambling
double up strategy – these 6 picks are no longer considered locks. And thus, the Lunatic Lock curse is no longer
relevant – I would hate for one of these teams to be jinxed by some stupid
imaginary curse.
6:09 pm - #1 Virginia (-6) vs #5 Auburn O/U: 132
I hate giving 6 points here.
I really do believe that Virginia is going to slow the pace of this game
down and turn it into a defensive battle.
I believe the pressure of the Final Four will also lend towards defense
being more effective than offense – especially three point
shooting. But if it is a defensive
battle, even if I believe Virginia is the better team and will win, can I
expect them to cover 6 points. But while
I hate giving 6 points, I hate the idea of picking Auburn under the premise that
they are going to lose from 1-5 points.
Just to put in perspective, in the Virginia / Purdue game, the Boilers
were up by 1 point with 40 seconds left – and Virginia won by 5. A two point lead can
turn to six by FTs in a heartbeat (ask Texas Tech in their game against
Gonzaga). If you believe Virginia will
win this game more than 60% of the time, you should take Virginia….. Also, one last piece of information to lean things to
the Cavaliers. While they are expected
to play, Auburn’s stars Jared Harper and Bryce Brown – who combined for 50
points in the game against Kentucky – are both battling an illness.
Lunatic’s Picks: Virginia
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(30)
Results: Virginia
63-62 Picks Record: 32-33 (-89) Totals
Record: 38-27-1 (+200)
8:49 pm - #2 Michigan State (-2.5) vs #3 Texas Tech
O/U:
132
Texas Tech has had a fantastic tournament. Jarrett Culver is an amazing player and has
the ability to take over a game. And
Texas Tech might have the best defense left in the tournament. But here is the thing. As you can see a few paragraphs below this, I
had all these reasons that I thought Michigan State could beat Duke – and at
the last minute, I talked myself into picking Duke. Cassius Winston has been tremendous in the
tournament. The Spartans are coming off
beating the team everyone felt was the best team in the country. And at the end of the day, I can not make the
same mistake again – you simply never bet against Tom Izzo in March. Texas Tech’s defense keeps this score under
the 132 points, but Michigan State will cover the spread and head to the
championship game.
Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan
State
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(30)
Results: Texas Tech
61-51 Picks Record: 32-34 (-119) Totals
Record: 39-27-1 (+227)
Sunday’s Elite 8 Games
LUNATIC’S NOTE – So, I am relatively
pleased with my handicapping at this point.
I am up 11 wins and there are only 10 bets left. I could still end up down because of how
strong I have bet on a team, but I still feel this is a success. And because I am still hurting over the
Purdue game, I am going to try to drown out my misery by ranting – so you get
extra long analyses on these two games.
Picks
Record: 32-30 (-19) Totals
Record: 35-26-1 (+128)
2:20 pm - #2 Kentucky (-4.5) vs #5 Auburn O/U: 142.5
Past experience tends to matter.
It is not perfect – it is hard to beat a team 3 times in a season, but
if one team has beaten another team twice, it is telling you from a matchup
perspective who has the advantage.
Michigan State / Minnesota gave the unusual perfect example of this. MSU had won by 24 at home (which if you
adjust for the 4 point home court advantage is
20). MSU won the tournament game on a
neutral court 70-50. It normally doesn’t
work that perfectly, but you get the point.
Kentucky and Auburn have played twice – Kentucky won 82-80 at Auburn
(adj 6), and won 80-53 at home in Lexington (adj 23). So, Kentucky has covered this 4.5 point
spread (after adjusting for home court) twice, and this time, Kentucky is
getting to play Auburn without Chuma Okeke – who tore
his ACL in that horrible fall in the UNC game.
It does make the over more complicated – since one time they went under
and one time they went over. But
basically, remember this line is suggesting the score will be 73-69. Kentucky scored 80+ point both times – if
they do that again, it becomes a question on whether or not Auburn hits enough
three pointers to clear 62. I am going
big on this game. Go with the over and
lock Kentucky – once again, what’s the worse that happens for the Lunatic – if
the Lunatic Lock curse occurs, it knocks out Kentucky – and Auburn doesn’t
upset Kentucky in a defensive struggle – they do it by hitting tons of three
pointers which means you still cover the over.
No lose situation.
Lunatic’s Picks: Kentucky
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Auburn 77-71 Picks
Record: 32-31 (-49) Totals
Record: 36-26-1 (+155)
5:05 pm - #1 Duke (-2) vs #2 Michigan State
O/U:
151
Oh, Duke. Here we are
again. What does the Lunatic do with
you? There are so many conflicting
pieces of information here. Vegas is
giving you a 2 point line for the #1 team in the
country – this is almost Vegas’ version of a coin flip. They are giving you basically the chance to
pick the #1 team going into the tournament with almost the equivalent of even
odds. That feels like a bet that you
should always take and lock (although you saw how that logic worked for me
yesterday with Gonzaga). But here is
the problem. Duke has won their last two
games against Virginia Tech and UCF by 2 or less points – and Michigan State is
a better team than Virginia Tech and UCF.
Duke has shown that they can not score from the perimeter, and Michigan
State has a coach who can probably figure out how to exploit that. I have taken Duke to cover the spread in all
3 of their games in the tournament and I am now 0-3. There is a possibility that Cam Reddish can’t
play – which makes Duke even weaker on the perimeter. And I tend to have a rule that you never bet
against Tom Izzo in March. And there is
the Lunatic curse – the only team that is left in the tournament that can help
the Lunatic’s bracket get more points is Duke – this weekend has not been good
to the Lunatic’s bracket picks. All
these indicators say take the Spartans.
So, do you go with what your initial handicapping said and continue to
run into a brick wall – or do you pick the upset that you originally didn’t
think would happen. I would stay as far
away from this game as possible – but that is not how this game is played. At the end of the day, the best player on the
court is Zion Williamson – and he can take over a game. I have to keep running into the brick wall
and take Duke – just have no confidence in it.
And after all that, I still have to pick the under / over. Michigan State only played 11 out of 37
games over 151 points (including their last 7 games have been under). Duke has actually only play 17 out of 37
games over 151 points (including only 2 of their last 10). Michigan State is going to try to turn this
into a defensive battle – I feel that the right bet is to pick the under
here. Just will not lock it – while the
numbers say take the under, Vegas is still saying this game is going to be
about a 76-74 game, which doesn’t seem to be unrealistic.
Lunatic’s Picks: Duke
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Michigan State 68-67 Picks
Record: 32-32 (-59) Totals
Record: 37-26-1 (+173)
Saturday’s Elite 8 Games
Picks Record: 32-28 (+11) Totals
Record: 34-25-1 (+139)
6:09 pm - #1 Gonzaga (-4.5) vs #3 Texas Tech O/U: 140
Well – I obviously can’t handicap either of these teams. I thought it would be Florida State playing
Michigan – only problem was Gonzaga beat Florida State by 14 and Texas Tech
beat Michigan by 19. Both teams are
excellent defensively – so I have to take the under. As far as who will win, I have to pick
Gonzaga. There is a reason that Gonzaga
was a #1 seed, and if you can take a top 4 team in the country and only give up
4.5 points, you have to take that bet with confidence. Just won’t lock it – defensive battles have
amazing knacks to have surprising results.
Lunatic’s Picks: Gonzaga
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Texas Tech
75-69 Picks Record: 32-29 (-9) Totals
Record: 34-26-1 (+119)
8:49 pm - #1 Virginia (-4.5) vs #3 Purdue
O/U:
127
SO VERY EXCITED!!!!!! CAN HARDLY THINK
STRAIGHT!!!!!!! CAN HARDLY CONTAIN MY
EXCITEMENT!!!!! DID I MENTION THAT I AM
EXCITED!!!!!! HAVE I SAID BEFORE THAT I
AM BIASED!!!! SO VERY BIASED!!!!! BOILER UP!!!!!! BOILER UP!!!!!! BOILER UP!!!!!
Lunatic’s Picks: Purdue
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(10)
Results: Virginia
80-75 Picks Record: 32-30 (-19) Totals
Record: 35-26-1 (+128)
Friday's Sweet 16 Games
Picks Record: 30-26 (-4) Totals
Record: 31-24-1 (+86)
7:09 pm - #2 Michigan State (-6) vs #3 LSU O/U: 148
I think Michigan State is going to win this game. I think LSU is a very talented team – but not
sure that they have had to play a team that can play defense like Michigan
State. And as we saw from last night’s
games, a close game can go to 6 points in a heartbeat thanks to extending the
game. I actually really like the total
here. Michigan State / Minnesota got 120
points, and Maryland / LSU got 136 points.
If LSU only was able to get 69 points against Maryland, I don’t see this
game getting over 148 unless it goes to overtime….
Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan
State
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(30)
Results: Michigan State 80-63
Picks Record: 31-26
(+14) Totals
Record: 32-24-1 (+113)
7:29 pm - #1 North Carolina (-5.5) vs #5 Auburn O/U:
165
I am a little biased here.
But I also think that the Tar Heels are simply the better team
here. The way North Carolina gets out in
transition and how impressively they pass the ball – I think they will be able
to score at will. I do expect that with
Auburn shooting a ton of three pointers and willing to run with UNC, this will
be a track meet – only reason not to lock it is that 165 points is a lot. But I am not going to be surprised if UNC
breaks 90 or even 100 with the pace of this game.
Lunatic’s Picks: North
Carolina
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: Auburn 97-80
Picks Record: 31-27 (-6) Totals
Record: 33-24-1 (+131)
9:39 pm - #1 Duke (-7) vs #4 Virginia Tech O/U:
143.5
Then, there is Duke. The
team that was picked to just role through the tournament. The one that then struggled in the first half
against a 16 seed. The one that then
almost was sent home by UCF. I no longer
know what to do with Duke. I really
want to pull the trigger on a VT upset – the Hokies did beat them without Zion
at Blacksburg. But something tells me
that is the over-reaction pick. If I had
not watched the UCF game, I would have handicapped this game closer to how Duke
did against Florida State and Syracuse in the ACC tournament – both games that
the Blue Devils covered the spread. I
will reluctantly take Duke – but I have no more confidence in them covering the
spread (and would not be surprised if VT beats them).
Lunatic’s Picks: Duke
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: Duke 75-73 Picks Record: 31-28 (-16) Totals
Record: 34-24-1 (+149)
9:59 pm - #2 Kentucky (-2.5) vs #3 Houston O/U: 134
Kentucky was able to beat a really good Wofford team without
their star player, PJ Washington. While
Houston impressed me with their win over Ohio State, they haven’t had to play a
team like Kentucky yet. And with the
line being 2.5 points, I am basically picking who I think wins the game. I think Kentucky wins this game, with or
without Washington. So, why not lock
it. Everyone knows that I don’t like
Kentucky anyways – so the worse thing that happens is the Lunatic’s Lock Curse
knocks the Wildcats out of the tournament.
I really see this as a no-lose decision.
Lunatic’s Picks:
Kentucky
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(10)
Results: Kentucky 62-58 Picks Record: 32-28 (+11) Totals Record:
34-25-1 (+139)
Thursday's Sweet 16 Games
Picks Record: 28-24 (+9) Totals Record: 30-21-1
(+128)
7:09 pm - #1 Gonzaga (-7.5) vs. #4 Florida State O/U: 147
I originally thought that Florida State would upset Gonzaga when
I made my picks. Now I am getting 7.5
points to take that pick. The only
reason I am not going to lock this is because while I think 7.5 points is too
many, Gonzaga is such a good team that it wouldn’t surprise me if a two
possession game turns into a 4 possession game thanks
to late game FTs.
Lunatic’s Picks: Florida
State
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Gonzaga 72-58
Picks Record: 28-25 (-11) Totals
Record: 30-22-1 (+98)
7:29 pm - #2 Tennessee (-1.5) vs #3 Purdue O/U:
146.5
BIASED!!!!!! SO VERY
BIASED!!!!!! SO EXCITED TO SEE THE
BOILERS IN THE SWEET 16!!!!!! BUT STILL
SO VERY BIASED!!!!!! BOILER UP!!!!!
Lunatic’s Picks: Purdue
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(10)
Results: Purdue 99-94
Picks Record: 29-25 (-2) Totals
Record: 30-23-1 (+88)
9:39 pm - #2 Michigan (-2) vs #3 Texas Tech O/U: 126
Lets
remember that Michigan made it through the gauntlet to get to last year’s
championship game. And the Big 10 has had
a much more successful tournament so far than the Big 12. The Wolverines have the experience in the
tournament – and that matters at this stage of the game.
Lunatic’s Picks:
Michigan
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: Texas Tech 63-44 Picks Record: 29-26 (-22) Totals
Record: 30-24-1 (+68)
9:59 pm - #1 Virginia (-8.5) vs #12 Oregon O/U: 119
This is the classic first team to 50 wins. Virginia is obviously the team most likely to
reach 50 first, but when you have games in the 50s, it is difficult to win the
game by 8.5. The point spread is high
enough considering this should be a defensive battle that you have to take the
Ducks
Lunatic’s Picks:
Oregon
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Virginia 53-49 Picks Record: 30-26 (-4) Totals Record: 31-24-1 (+86)
Sunday's Second Round Games
Record After Saturday: Picks Record: 25-19 (-2) Totals
Record: 28-16 (+193)
LUNATIC NOTE – Can’t believe how up I
am at the moment. I went 8-0 against the
spread to almost make up my losses against the spread. And I continue to rock on the totals!!!! Of course, all the upsets happened on Friday
– and those teams play today. Here’s
hoping this doesn’t destroy my streak.
12:15 pm - #2 Tennessee (-8) vs #10 Iowa O/U: 155.5
This is a difficult one for me – that is because neither of
these teams are very consistent. When
Iowa loses, they tend to go on horrible streaks where they don’t score and lose
big. But Tennessee has wild swings (such
as being able to beat Kentucky and then go and lose big to Auburn and barely
beat Colgate). I think the pick is Tennessee
here, but it makes me nervous. That
being said, I do like the under here.
The Vegas line is basically picking the score to be 82-74. I think that is a lot of points for these
teams that are streaky.
Lunatic’s Picks: Tennessee
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(30)
Results: Tennessee 83-77 Picks Record: 25-20
(-12) Totals Record:
28-17 (+163)
2:40 pm - #1 North Carolina (-11.5) vs #9 Washington O/U: 148
This is also difficult for me.
I think UNC is one of the top 4 teams in the tournament. But does that mean that I think that they
should be a 11.5 point favorite over the Pac 12
champion. This game is happening in the
Round of 32 simply because Washington is mis-seeded. Looking at Washington’s schedule, they lost
by 12 to Virginia Tech and 20 to Auburn – but they also lost by 2 to Gonzaga –
so I could see this going either way. At
the end of the day, 11.5 points is a lot – so I will take the Huskies. But I like the over – once again, look at
what the Vegas line is expecting – an 80-68 UNC victory. I could see both teams going over those
numbers.
Lunatic’s Picks: Washington
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: North Carolina 81-59
Picks Record: 25-21 (-22) Totals Record: 28-18 (+133)
5:15 pm - #1 Duke (-13) vs #9 UCF O/U: 143.5
I am still a little stung by Duke not covering in the 1-16
game. But I have to roll with the Blue
Devils. When Duke has played a team that
is not better than a 4 seed, they are 16-6-1 against that spread (with three of
those losses coming to Syracuse). UCF
did great in their first round game, but VCU was
playing with an injured star player.
They have only played a couple teams this season who are from major
conferences, and none of them are close to the caliber of Duke. I could see a combination of UCF trying to
slow the pace of the game down, and Duke stopping UCF leading to this game
being under.
Lunatic’s Picks: Duke
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Duke 77-76 Picks Record: 25-22 (-52) Totals
Record: 28-19 (+113)
6:10 pm - #3 Texas Tech (-3.5) vs #6 Buffalo O/U: 146
Buffalo is a very impressive mid-major champion. And their victory over Arizona State was
stunning. But Texas Tech is the regular
season champion of the Big 12 conference.
And with the line at 3.5 points, it is almost the equivalent of a coin
flip game. Think about it, if Texas Tech
is up by 2 points with under 20 seconds, the need to foul to extend the game and
made FTs could easily push this over 3.5.
If I am getting a line that says it is a coin flip between the Big 12
champion and the MAC champion, I am going with the Big 12 champ. Will be happy to be wrong – since I love the
mid-major champions and I am not a fan of the Big 12 teams. But I think from a handicapping perspective,
you have to lock this game – with Buffalo’s pace pushing the total towards the
over side.
Lunatic’s Picks: Texas
Tech
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: Texas Tech 78-58 Picks Record: 26-22 (-25) Totals Record: 28-20 (+93)
7:10 pm - #4 Virginia Tech (-8.5) vs #12 Liberty O/U: 125
I am going to continue locking teams. That is probably a horrible idea, but once
again. Think about it. Before Liberty’s upset of Mississippi State,
they went 1-3 against this line against major conference teams (beating UCLA
and losing to Alabama, Georgetown and Vanderbilt). Liberty’s story is great – that they have won
their first tournament game in school history.
But normally, these Cinderella stories don’t end well on Sunday in the
Round of 32. According to the committee,
Virginia Tech is a top 16 team – you have to expect that they will be able to
cover 8.5 points against the Flames.
Lunatic’s Picks: Virginia
Tech
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Virginia Tech 67-58 Picks Record: 27-22 (+2) Totals Record: 28-20-1 (+93)
7:45 pm - #1 Virginia (-11) vs #9 Oklahoma O/U: 127.5
I have no clue what to do with this game. I have not been able to handicap the Big 12
this entire tournament. When I think a
Big 12 team will do great, they lose or don’t cover the spread (I am thinking
about you, Kansas State). When I think a
Big 12 team will lose (like I did with Oklahoma), they win by 23. I am going to go with the fact that Virginia
wins games by defense. I could very
easily see this game being a score like Virginia winning 60-52. So, I have to begrudgingly pick
Oklahoma. But I have absolutely no
confidence in it – normally at this point, I would make the decision that I do
not know how to handicap Oklahoma and stay as far away from this game as
possible.
Lunatic’s Picks: Oklahoma
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Virginia 63-51 Picks Record: 27-23 (-8) Totals Record: 29-20-1 (+111)
8:40 pm - #3 Houston (-5.5) vs #11 Ohio State O/U: 131.5
Watching Houston destroy Georgia State gives me a little bit of
pause here. With any of the other 3
seeds, I would pick the 3 seed. But in
my initial handicapping, I had picked the winner of the Iowa State vs Ohio
State game to pull the upset in this game.
And you are giving me 5.5 points.
I don’t have a lot of confidence here – but I will take the Buckeyes,
and assume that they will turn the game into an ugly defensive battle the way
that they did against Iowa State.
Lunatic’s Picks: Ohio
State (10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(10)
Results: Houston 74-59 Picks Record: 27-24
(-18) Totals Record: 29-21-1 (+101)
9:40 pm - #12 Oregon (-4.5) vs #13 UC Irvine O/U: 124.5
UC-Irvine beating Kansas State is a great story. But it is important to remember that Kansas
State played that game without their second leading scorer. And Oregon is peaking at the perfect time at
the moment. If I have to root at this
game (and ignore my bracket that has Oregon), I have to root for the Cinderella
story of the Anteaters. But if I have to
be a handicapper that takes emotion out of the equation, this is a great chance
to take the Pac 12 Tournament Champion in a game against a mid-major champion
and only have to give 4.5 points – you probably should always take that bet.
Lunatic’s Picks: Oregon
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Oregon
73-54 Picks Record: 28-24 (+9) Totals
Record: 30-21-1 (+128)
Saturday's Second Round Games
Record After First Round: Picks Record: 17-19 (-128) Totals Record: 23-13 (+164)
LUNATIC NOTE – Here I go again, losing
tons of imaginary money on the spread just to make it up on the totals. Of course, if I didn’t do so badly on my
“locks”, I would be up a lot more. It
should tell you a lot that I am only 2 games under .500 on the spread, and yet
I am down $128.
12:15 pm - #3 LSU (-2.5) vs #6 Maryland O/U: 145.5
I might be letting my biases get the best of me here. But the way Yale finished against Yale
reminds me that this team is hampered a little by missing their coach. LSU is the more talented team – but there is
so much bad energy around this program at the moment that I simply can not take them.
Lunatic’s Picks: Maryland
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: LSU 69-67 Picks Record: 18-19 (-119) Totals Record: 23-14 (+144)
2:40 pm - #2 Kentucky (-5.5) vs #7 Wofford O/U: 138.5
If PJ Washington was healthy, you would take Kentucky in a
heartbeat. The problem is Kentucky’s
leading scorer isn’t going to play Saturday.
I think I still have to take the Wildcats, but this is no longer a lock.
Lunatic’s Picks: Kentucky
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Kentucky 62-56 Picks Record: 19-19 (-101) Totals Record: 24-14 (+162)
5:15 pm - #2 Michigan (-6.5) vs #10 Florida O/U: 123.5
Florida is much better than people realize. But the Big 10 has been playing tremendous
basketball in the tournament, and Michigan is obviously one of the best teams
from the Big 10. I think the Wolverines
have too many weapons in this game.
Lunatic’s Picks:
Michigan
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Michigan 64-49 Picks Record: 20-19 (-83) Totals Record: 24-15 (+132)
6:10 pm - #4 Florida St (-5) vs #12 Murray State O/U: 144
The first round games make me a little
nervous about this – but I have to go with my initial handicapping. I felt that the Seminoles defensively would
slow Ja Morant down enough to win the game. Question is whether is will they cover the
spread.
Lunatic’s Picks: Florida
State
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(10)
Results: Florida State 90-62 Picks Record: 21-19
(-65) Totals Record: 25-15 (+141)
7:10 pm - #1 Gonzaga (-13) vs #9 Baylor O/U: 148.5
Baylor just came off a big victory against a very good Syracuse
team. Gonzaga slaughtered a 16
seed. While Baylor is 20-13 this
season, the Bears only lost 2 games this year (Iowa St and at Texas Tech) by
more than 13 points. Gonzaga does blow
out a lot of teams, and while they do very well against major conference teams,
the number of blowouts that they have is not as often. I think the Zags win, but with 13 points, you
have to pick Baylor here.
Lunatic’s Picks: Baylor
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Gonzaga 83-71 Picks Record: 22-19
(-38) Totals Record: 26-15 (+168)
7:45 pm - #2 Michigan State (-10) vs #10 Minnesota O/U: 142
When these two teams met this season in East Lansing, the
Spartans won this game 79-55. These
teams are both playing differently since that game a month ago, but at the end
of the day, Michigan State’s physical defense is a bad match-up for Minnesota –
since that defense takes away the Gopher’s biggest strength. Not to mention – never bet against a Tom Izzo
team in March.
Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan
State
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Michigan State 70-50 Picks Record: 23-19
(-20) Totals Record: 27-15 (+186)
8:40 pm - #3 Purdue (-4) vs #6 Villanova O/U: 137
We know my opinions here.
BIASED!!!! SO BIASED!!!! Don’t even need to try to handicap, because I
am BIASED!!!! BOILER UP!!!!!!!
Lunatic’s Picks: Purdue
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Purdue 87-61 Picks Record: 24-19
(-11) Totals Record: 27-16 (+166)
9:40 pm - #4 Kansas vs #5 Auburn (-2) O/U: 147.5
Which Auburn team is the one that is for real – is it the one
that totally destroyed Tennessee, or is it the one that was so sloppy that it
almost let New Mexico State come back from 8 down with 2 minutes (still not
sure how this game isn’t a rematch of the Kansas / New Mexico St game earlier
this season). My original handicapping
had Auburn winning this game – and the Vegas’ linemakers agree with a rare
underdog by seed being favored by the casinos.
So, I am going to stick with my original pick – just not very confident
about it.
Lunatic’s Picks: Auburn
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Auburn
89-75 Picks Record: 25-19 (-2) Totals
Record: 28-16 (+193)
Friday's First Round Games
12:15 pm - #7 Cincinnati (-3.5) vs #10 Iowa O/U: 137.5
Iowa has lost 6 of their last 8 games. Cincinnati has won 8 of their last 10,
including upsetting Houston to win the American Conference Tournament. I have to go with the team that is peaking at
the right time.
Lunatic’s Picks: Cincinnati
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(30)
Results: Iowa 79-72 Picks Record: 12-9 (+1) Totals
Record: 13-8 (+26)
12:40 pm - #8 Mississippi (-1) vs #9 Oklahoma O/U: 142.5
Mississippi went 10-9 in the SEC – which is a pretty good
conference. Oklahoma went 7-11 in the
Big 12 – which is also a pretty good conference, but Oklahoma’s struggles in
conference make it impossible right now for me to take them.
Lunatic’s Picks: Mississippi
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Oklahoma 95-72 Picks Record: 12-10 (-29) Totals
Record: 14-8 (+53)
1:30 pm - #3 Texas Tech (-13.5) vs #14 Northern Kentucky O/U:
137
I have to believe that the Big 12 regular season co-champions
can handle Northern Kentucky. Northern Kentucky
played close games against UCF and Cincinnati – so they are capable – just
think the Red Raiders will be too much.
Lunatic’s Picks: Texas
Tech
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Texas Tech 72-57 Picks Record: 13-10 (-20) Totals Record: 15-8 (+71)
2:00 pm - #4 Kansas State (-4.5) vs #13 UC Irvine O/U: 119
This is tough for me.
Kansas State has some injuries – which is obviously what has driven this
line down to 4.5 points. And UC Irvine
is 30-5, with some decent wins in the non-conference season. But I have to take the Big 12 co-champ.
Lunatic’s Picks: Kansas
State
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: UC Irvine 70-64 Picks Record: 13-11 (-50) Totals Record: 16-8 (+89)
2:45 pm - #2 Tennessee (-17.5) vs #15 Colgate O/U: 148
Tennessee is going to come out to redeem themselves after their
horrible performance again Auburn in the SEC Final. But with them needing to cover 17.5 in a game
that looks like it will be a track meet.
I think I will just stay away from this one. I can see both teams shooting the lights out,
and Tennessee completely shutting Colgate down and not scoring enough points to
cover 148 by themselves.
Lunatic’s Picks: Tennessee
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(10)
Results: Tennessee 77-70 Picks Record: 13-12 (-60) Totals Record: 16-9 (+79)
3:10 pm - #1 Virginia (-22) vs #16 Gardner-Webb O/U: 130.5
I expect Virginia’s defense will come out strong to make sure
that history doesn’t repeat itself. And
if they cover the spread, they will likely have to force the over.
Lunatic’s Picks: Virginia
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(10)
Results: Virginia 71-56 Picks Record: 13-13 (-70) Totals Record: 16-10 (+69)
4:00 pm - #6 Buffalo (-5) vs #11 Arizona State O/U: 157
Every year, a First Four winner wins their next game. Arizona State is the only team left that can
keep that streak going – so have to pick the Sun Devils – they are destined.
Lunatic’s Picks: Arizona
State
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(10)
Results: Buffalo 91-74 Picks Record: 13-14 (-90) Totals Record: 17-10 (+78)
4:30 pm - #5 Wisconsin (-2) vs #12 Oregon O/U: 116.5
Wow – I know that both Wisconsin and Oregon are strong defensive
teams, but this is expecting neither team to get to 60. And while I really like Oregon as a crazy
hot team right now, with the Badgers only giving up 2 points, I have to take
Wisconsin.
Lunatic’s Picks: Wisconsin
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Oregon 72-54 Picks Record: 13-15 (-100) Totals Record: 18-10 (+105)
6:50 pm - #8 Utah State (-3) vs #9 Washington O/U: 135
This is a coin-flip game – but I am going to continue to go with
the disrespected Pac 12. Washington was
the Pac 12 regular season champion – I have to go with them until someone
proves I shouldn’t.
Lunatic’s Picks: Washington
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Washington 78-61 Picks Record: 14-15 (-82) Totals Record: 18-11 (+85)
7:10 pm - #1 Duke (-27) vs #16 North Dakota State O/U: 148.5
I can’t believe that I am doing this. Duke needs to cover 27 points, and all I can
think is – that is a lock. Probably not
helping watching Kentucky and Gonzaga roll by huge monster victories. But I am going to lock the best team in
college basketball.
Lunatic’s Picks: Duke
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(10)
Results: Duke 85-62 Picks Record: 14-16 (-112) Totals
Record: 18-12 (+75)
7:20 pm - #3 Houston (-12) vs #14 Georgia State O/U: 141.5
Houston was dominant in their non-conference schedule against
schools from smaller conferences. If you
get a chance to take a top 12 team in the first round and only give 12 points,
you have to lock them.
Lunatic’s Picks: Houston
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(30)
Results: Houston 84-55 Picks Record: 15-16 (-85) Totals Record: 19-12 (+102)
7:27 pm - #5 Mississippi State (-6.5) vs #12 Liberty O/U: 133.5
Liberty played two SEC schools (Vanderbilt and Alabama) and lost
by 9. So, I have to expect that a better
SEC school can handle them. But
considering that LSU and Auburn both were almost shocked today, I can’t lock
this game. While I expect Mississippi
State to win, it is just a couple of possessions from their other SEC games for
Liberty to cause the Bulldogs not to cover.
Lunatic’s Picks: Mississippi
State (20) Lunatic’s
Total: Over (20)
Results: Liberty 80-76 Picks Record: 15-17 (-105) Totals Record: 20-12 (+120)
9:20 pm - #1 North Carolina (-23) vs #16 Iona O/U: 166
It would not surprise me if North Carolina got to 90 points in
this game – but that means Iona needs to score 76 to cover the over. They might do it (especially if the Tar
Heels get to 100 – but 166 points is a lot of points for a college basketball game).
Lunatic’s Picks: North
Carolina (30) Lunatic’s
Total: Under (30)
Results: North Carolina 88-73 Picks Record: 15-18 (-135) Totals Record: 21-12 (+147)
9:40 pm - #8 VCU vs #9 UCF (-1) O/U: 126.5
I should be scared that VCU is the only seed favorite that Vegas
is listing as an underdog – but I have to take the local team.
Lunatic’s Picks: VCU
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)
Results: UCF 73-58 Picks Record: 15-19 (-145) Totals
Record: 22-12 (+165)
9:50 pm - #6 Iowa State (-6) vs #11 Ohio State O/U: 140.5
I think the Big 10 schools are a lot stronger than people
realize – I like Ohio State to do well in this game. Since I am taking it because I think the 6
points is too high, I don’t know that I have a lot of confidence in it – but go
with the Buckeyes.
Lunatic’s Picks: Ohio
State (10) Lunatic’s
Total: Under (10)
Results: Ohio State 62-59 Picks Record: 16-19 (-155) Totals Record: 23-12 (+174)
9:57 pm - #4 Virginia Tech (-10) vs #13 Saint Louis O/U: 126
St. Louis played one ACC team this year (Florida State) and lost
by 22. I suspect that the Hokies will
have a similar result. Will stay away
from the over/under since I think 126 points is too low – but I have also seen
the Hokies hold teams to crazy low point totals.
Lunatic’s Picks: Virginia
Tech (30) Lunatic’s
Total: Over (10)
Results: Virginia Tech 66-52 Picks Record: 17-19 (-128) Totals Record: 23-13 (+164)
Thursday's First Round Games
12:15 pm - #7 Louisville (-5) vs #10
Minnesota O/U:
135.5
I am biased in this decision.
I can’t get the image out of my head of Jordan Murphy and Amir Coffey
scoring at will against my Boilermakers.
That being said, I have also seen multiple times where Louisville gets a
lead and just can’t finish the game. My
gut says that this is a good opportunity for a surprise.
Lunatic’s Picks: Minnesota
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(10)
Results: Minnesota 86-76 Picks Record: 3-2 (+4) Totals
Record: 4-1 (+52)
12:40 pm - #3 LSU (-7.5) vs #14 Yale O/U:
157
LSU is a mess going into the tournament. And some of the best upsets in the tournament
have come from the Ivy League Champions.
I was not willing to pick Yale to win the game out-right, but if I am
getting 7.5 points, I will take the underdogs.
Also, 157 points is a lot of points – even if this game has a faster
pace.
Lunatic’s Picks: Yale
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: LSU 79-74 Picks Record: 4-2 (+22) Totals
Record: 5-1 (+70)
1:30 pm - #5 Auburn (-5.5) vs #12 New Mexico
State O/U:
145.5
New Mexico State is 30-4 this season, and one of those losses is
a 3 point loss to Kansas. The Aggies are certainly capable of playing
with anyone – including the SEC Tournament Champions. Same as the Yale game, not sure I would pick
NM State if I had to straight up, but I have to consider it with 5.5
points. Take the Aggies in a game that
turns into a track meet.
Lunatic’s Picks: New
Mexico State
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Auburn 78-77 Picks Record: 5-2 (+31) Totals
Record: 6-1 (+97)
2:00 pm - #4 Florida State (-9) vs #13
Vermont O/U:
133.5
This one is tough for me.
Florida State plays incredible defense.
But Vermont did play a single digit game against Louisville – so they
can obviously hang with an ACC team. I
think Florida State will score enough points to cover the over and barely cover
the spread
Lunatic’s Picks: Florida
State
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: Florida State 76-69 Picks Record: 5-3 (+11) Totals
Record: 7-1 (+115)
2:45 pm - #2 Michigan State (-18.5) vs #15
Bradley O/U:
133.5
It is hard to believe – because normally the MVC does schedule decently. But Bradley has played no teams that earned
an at-large bid this season. The talent
that Michigan State has will be too much – not to mention never bet against Tom
Izzo in March – even if the line looks ridiculous.
Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan
State
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: Michigan State 76-65 Picks Record: 5-4 (+1) Totals
Record: 8-1 (+133)
3:10 pm - #6 Maryland (-3) vs #11 Belmont O/U:
147
Maryland struggled to finish out the season – only winning half
of their last 10 games – including an early exit in the Big 10 tournament to
Nebraska. But as I watch the end of the
Arizona State / St. John’s game, I am reminded of the fact by the announcers –
in every single year since the new format, a team from the First Four went on
to win their next game. With that stat
and getting a mid-major school who is as competitive as Belmont – have to go
with the underdog.
Lunatic’s Picks: Belmont
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(20)
Results: Maryland 79-77 Picks Record: 6-4
(+10) Totals Record: 8-2
(+113)
4:00 pm - #4 Kansas (-6.5) vs #13
Northeastern O/U:
143
Kansas has not looked like the dominating team that they have
been in the past – but they should have more than enough to cover 6.5 against
Northeastern. Take the Jayhawks
Lunatic’s Picks: Kansas
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Kansas 87-53 Picks Record: 7-4 (+37) Totals
Record: 8-3 (+83)
4:30 pm - #5 Marquette (-3.5) vs #12 Murray
State O/U:
149.5
This should be a fun game.
Ja Morant is an amazing player for Murray
State – and this team looks like the typical mid-major that pulls the
Cinderella upset.
Lunatic’s Picks: Murray
State
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(10)
Results: Murray State 83-64 Picks Record: 8-4 (+46) Totals
Record: 9-3 (+92)
6:50 pm - #7 Nevada (-2) vs #10 Florida O/U:
133.5
I remember Nevada’s run last year – and they went 29-4 this
year. Florida will try to slow the pace
of this game down, but I think Nevada finishes ahead.
Lunatic’s Picks: Nevada
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(10)
Results: Florida 70-61 Picks Record: 8-5 (+36) Totals
Record: 10-3 (+101)
7:10 pm - #2 Kentucky (-22) vs #15 Abilene
Christian O/U:
132
Abilene Christian had a great season, but the one game they
played against a tourney team (Texas Tech), they lost 82-48. And Kentucky is a better team, take the
Wildcats……
Lunatic’s Picks: Kentucky
(20) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(30)
Results: Kentucky 79-44 Picks Record: 9-5 (+54) Totals
Record: 10-4 (+71)
7:20 pm - #6 Villanova (-4.5) vs #11 St.
Mary’s O/U:
130
Saint Mary’s really impressed me with their victory over
Gonzaga. Meanwhile, Villanova just went
and won the Big East regular season and conference championship. Have to go with Villanova – but I am not sold
enough on the rest of the Big East to go big here.
Lunatic’s Picks: Villanova
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under
(10)
Results: Villanova 61-57 Picks Record: 9-6 (+44) Totals
Record: 11-4 (+80)
7:27 pm - #1 Gonzaga (-27.5) vs #16 Fairleigh
Dickinson O/U:
153
Dang that is a lot of points…..But FDU
is going to come off of the excitement of their First Four victory, and then
have to fly from Dayton to Salt Lake City to play a team that has been number 1
in the polls for part of the season. The
lines-makers made this line at a point where I would just stay away from it –
but since I can’t, take Gonzaga….. After watching FDU in the First Four game, I
do expect to see a lot of points.
Lunatic’s Picks: Gonzaga
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)
Results: Gonzaga 87-49 Picks Record: 10-6 (+53) Totals Record: 11-5 (+60)
9:20 pm - #2 Michigan (-15) vs #15
Montana O/U:
130
This feels kind of cruel.
Montana made the tournament last year as well – guess who they
played. Yep, the Wolverines beat them
61-47. If this game turns into a mirror,
looks like the line is right where it should be – but take the under!!!!
Lunatic’s Picks: Michigan
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)
Results: Michigan 74-55 Picks Record: 11-6
(+62) Totals Record: 12-5 (+78)
9:40 pm - #7 Wofford (-2.5) vs #10 Seton
Hall O/U:
144.5
I so badly want to be on the Wofford train. But I can’t forget Wofford’s 4 losses (all to
tournament teams0. They deserve a lot of
credit for going 29-4. But all 4 of
those losses to tournament teams were by double digits. With only 2.5 points, you probably need to
take Seton Hall.
Lunatic’s Picks: Seton
Hall (20) Lunatic’s
Total: Under (20)
Results: Wofford 84-68 Picks Record: 11-7 (+42) Totals
Record: 12-6 (+58)
9:50 pm - #3 Purdue (-12.5) vs #14 Old Dominion
O/U:
126
Investigating the spread of this game makes me crazy
nervous. Did you know Old Dominion has
beaten both VCU and Syracuse. This is a
good team. But I can not pick against
my Boilers – actually normally I would just not pick a game involving Purdue
(but since that is not how this imaginary game is played, I have to go with the
team I am cheering for).
Lunatic’s Picks: Purdue
(10) Lunatic’s Total: Over
(20)
Results: Purdue 61-48 Picks Record: 12-7 (+51) Totals Record: 12-7 (+38)
9:57 pm - #8 Syracuse (-1.5) vs #9 Baylor O/U:
130
I can’t tell you how much I love this line. I get to take a very good Syracuse team who
has beaten Duke against an above-average Big 12 team, and it might as well be a
straight-up pick with a 1.5 point line. And I have the double benefit here. Everyone knows I do not like Syracuse. So, if I lock them in, I either bump up my
winnings or curse a team I hate. There
is no way to lose in this situation!!!!!!
Lunatic’s Picks: Syracuse
(30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)
Results: Baylor 78-69 Picks Record: 12-8 (+21) Totals
Record: 13-7 (+56)
Tuesday's First Round Games
6:40 pm - #16 Fairleigh Dickinson (-1.5) vs #16 Prairie View
A&M O/U: 149.5
Neither of these teams have performed well against top
competition. But Prairie View A&M at
least played some tournament level teams (although they were Baylor, Murray
State and first team out UNC-Greensboro) and kept them to about 10 point games. The
best team Fairleigh Dickinson played was Providence – and they also lost by
10. This probably is a coin-flip type
game, I am going to pick Prairie View to advance in a game where scoring is low
as both teams start off nervous and cold for being in the tournament.
Lunatic’s Picks: Prairie View A&M (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)
Results: Fairleigh Dickinson 82-76 Picks Record: 0-1 (-20) Totals Record:
0-1 (-20)
9:10 pm - #11 Belmont (-3) vs #11 Temple O/U: 155
I am struggling here – when I seeded the bracket, while I had
both out of the bracket, I had seeded Temple a couple above Belmont – simply felt
that Temple’s victories over Houston and UCF were better than Belmont’s victory
against Murray St. But when I look at
adjusted scoring margin on my poorly done cheat sheet, Belmont has the higher
ASM by over 5 points. That, along with
Vegas having the line at 3 points, suggests that Belmont should be the
favorite. Considering that I did poorly
at picking teams, I will go with Vegas and the statistics – they say take
Belmont to be able to win a close game.
That being said, I do think the game will be lower scoring that 155 –
that total suggests the final score will be 79-76, which seems high.
Lunatic’s Picks: Belmont (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (30)
Results: Belmont 81-70 Picks Record: 1-1 (-2) Totals Record: 1-1
(+7)
Wednesday's First Round Games
6:40 pm - #16 North Dakota St (-5) vs #16 North Carolina Central
O/U:
133
I just think that North Dakota St has had to play a slightly
tougher schedule and will be too much for North Carolina Central. I think it will go over but not as confident
as I am with the final score.
Lunatic’s Picks: North Dakota St (30) Lunatic’s Total: Over (20)
Results: North Dakota St 78-74 Picks Record: 1-2
(-32) Totals Record:
2-1 (+25)
9:10 pm - #11 Arizona State (-1.5) vs #11 St. John’s O/U:
152.5
I can’t decide if the “No One Expects Us To
Be Here” rule applies to St. John’s.
While they were the last team in, there really wasn’t a lot of outrage
over any of the teams. Not to mention,
the Pac 12 has been fighting for respect the whole season. At the end of the day, I have to go with
Arizona State. The way that St. John’s
finished the season on a losing streak and got destroyed by Marquette doesn’t
give me lots of confidence. But that is
why I can’t lock this game – because we get back to the “No One Expects Us To
Be Here” rule – basketball insight says Arizona State is a lock – but there is
just enough strange March rules that stop me from doing that.
Lunatic’s Picks: Arizona State (20) Lunatic’s Total: Under (20)
Results: Arizona State 74-65 Picks Record: 2-2
(-14) Totals Record: 3-1 (+43)