Well, I am still relatively new to modeling on Python – but I figure why not practice. I have all this great basketball data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I remember from past tournaments that Bill Kahn would tell me about the Bradley-Terry models that he created. And he always did very well in the pool. So, I definitely don’t have the experience that Bill has with building these models, it was at least an opportunity to learn a little about Python.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, I figure I have an extra day thanks to the unusual this schedule – lets see what I get. And it is really possible that I made some mistakes. But I also don’t think I can use the model. First of all, it predicted Winthrop would beat both Villanova and Purdue. I can live with the first upset but I can’t pick the second one against my Boilers. Second, it created a prediction that I suspect won’t happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is because its prediction for the Final 4 are all 4 of the #1 seeds. March Madness is anything but predictable – so while I have no doubt that Gonzaga, Baylor, Illinois and Michigan are the top 4 teams in the country based on the regular season, I don’t think all 4 of them will survive the regionals. One of the top seeds always goes down. It is inevitable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you are wondering, it finishes with Gonzaga having a 65.7% chance of beating Baylor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Well, I am still relatively new to modeling on Python – but I figure why not practice. I have all this great basketball data. I remember from past tournaments that Bill Kahn would tell me about the Bradley-Terry models that he created. And he always did very well in the pool. So, I definitely don’t […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2021-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1889"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1889\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1890,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1889\/revisions\/1890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}