{"id":205,"date":"2011-03-15T17:26:00","date_gmt":"2011-03-15T17:26:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/?p=205"},"modified":"2011-03-15T17:26:00","modified_gmt":"2011-03-15T17:26:00","slug":"have-my-tournament-simulator-running-finally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/?p=205","title":{"rendered":"Have my tournament simulator running. Finally."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>After years of saying &#8216;Some year&#8217; I finally got my tournament simulator running. I assume my B-T model gives me the correct winning probabilities. I then run through all 63 games and track. Then repeat for like 10,000 or 100,000 tournaments. Some factoids: Given Lunatic scoring expected value of B-T is 990. Standard deviation is 200. The 5%-95% range is 660-1320. I have Kansas as better than Ohio, but Ohio wins with higher probability because they are in a weaker bracket. There is a 5% probability that no Number 1 seed makes the final four. Cool what the machine can do. Anyone have any suggestions for calculations they would like run? No promises, but this is nerd week for me. -Bill<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After years of saying &#8216;Some year&#8217; I finally got my tournament simulator running. I assume my B-T model gives me the correct winning probabilities. I then run through all 63 games and track. Then repeat for like 10,000 or 100,000 tournaments. Some factoids: Given Lunatic scoring expected value of B-T is 990. Standard deviation is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-user2011"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}