I decided to use a very systematic approach to this – it creates a relatively chalky type result, but it meets some typical rules. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the first round, I am going to use the Vegas line to handicap. If Vegas thinks the favorite is only going to win by 2.5 or less points, I am going to pick an upset. In many cases, this matched what I mentioned in the Bumper Night Podcast, so I feel good about it. This leads to upsets by Memphis, Rutgers\/ND (I don’t have time to wait for the line to get set), and Davidson in the West. In the East, I get Indiana, Virginia Tech and San Francisco. In the South, TCU, Michigan and Loyola will have upsets. In the Midwest, we get Creighton, South Dakota St and Miami FL advancing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the second round, we assume the chalk gets its revenge – at the end of the day, the championship tends to be decided by teams that are in the Top 12 teams – so try to have as many of them in the Sweet 16 as possible. The only non-protected seeds (top 4) that happen are UNC beating Baylor, Loyola beating Villanova, and Iowa beating Cinderella South Dakota St.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the Sweet 16, we have mostly conference champions (regular season or tournament) – the only place that I am going to avoid is the West where I am going to let things break down. So, I have Texas Tech upseting Duke and Arkansas upseting Gonzaga with Texas Tech winning the West. In the East, UCLA ends UNC’s run, while Kentucky sadly beats Purdue – with Kentucky taking the East. In the South, Arizona and Tennessee advance – with Arizona winning the region. And in the Midwest, the chalk advance with Kansas beating Auburn in the final.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That leads to Arizona cutting down the nets in New Orleans by beating both Kansas and Kentucky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
I decided to use a very systematic approach to this – it creates a relatively chalky type result, but it meets some typical rules. In the first round, I am going to use the Vegas line to handicap. If Vegas thinks the favorite is only going to win by 2.5 or less points, I am […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2022-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2200"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2204,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2200\/revisions\/2204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}