{"id":3681,"date":"2026-04-06T04:23:44","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T04:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/?p=3681"},"modified":"2026-04-06T04:23:44","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T04:23:44","slug":"soccer-ball-dont-lie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.tehodgson.com\/stompthelunatic\/?p=3681","title":{"rendered":"Soccer Ball Don’t Lie"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Well, the golf ball did know a decent amount – if I had made the tie-breaker whether or not I beat 50 vs. simply giving the tie to the underdog, the golf ball would have got both the games right. I think it missed on both over\/unders so that didn’t work as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But today, it rained in Richmond so I needed a different way to predict the championship game. Charlie and I used to do a “Ball Don’t Lie” game of HORSE, but he is obviously at college (and apparently so is the basketball).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, I thought to myself, I would play the College Hoops 2K8 game I had on the Playstation-3. This was a big stretch for me since I had no clue where the controllers for the console were, but after a hunt, I found everything. I thought I would play 2 games as Michigan, and 2 games as Connecticut – and then just combine the results. I noticed as I was trying to get through the start game screens that my last saved game was from 2016. So, I basically had not played the game in 10 years. But when I did play, I tended to win – so I figured what would happen is I would win all 4 games, and then I would pick the team that won by the most points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, I set up the game that had Michigan vs. Connecticut (apparently UConn had a slightly better team in 2008 but wasn’t concerned). Then watched as UConn scored the first 15 points. I couldn’t even remember how to shoot a free throw and so the game timed me out and bricked the shot badly. So, once I figured out the main buttons, I re-started the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first game saw UConn winning by 24 points. So, I switched to playing for UConn – Michigan won by 18 points. So I switched back to Michigan and at least only lost by 9 points – where I stumbled across finally being able to intentionally pass to a player instead of just letting the computer pass it randomly to someone. At this point, I noticed the women’s championship game had started so I didn’t even bother losing again as the Huskies – that simply felt wrong to predict based on the computer beating the hell out of me and me getting better and better each game so it would likely favor whoever I played last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After watching UCLA beat South Carolina for the women’s championship, I noticed that the rain had stopped – so I thought I still need some type of random silly method to pick the game. Anyone following the blog knows that if the Lunatic had to pick between the Big 10 champion and Dan Hurley’s Huskies, the Lunatic’s heart will side with the Big 10. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be fair to Dan Hurley and the Huskies, the Lunatic probably would always favor the Big 10 champion – regardless of team. But Hurley is certainly not one of my favorite coaches – amazingly talented coach that I think needs to figure out when to be so intense, and when it is better for him to control himself. And to also be fair, I love a couple stories that I have read about his luck charms such as his lucky suit (that is coming apart at the seams) and holy beads (that his wife had to go back to the hotel room to get when he forgot them). Apparently, Dan Hurley believes in Karma – and so as much as I don’t like how much he yells at the officials, I can appreciate someone who believes in Karma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But I digress. I needed a quick way to predict the game (by the way, the current line is Michigan by 7.5 and the totals are 144.5). And I had no basketball – because we know the Ball Doesn’t Lie. But the Lunatic as a long time soccer coach still had a soccer ball – it would have to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Lunatic has to say, it was weird shooting a soccer ball at the basket. It felt smaller and lighter (not sure if that is true but it seemed that way. It also didn’t help that there was a huge puddle from the thunderstorms by the basket that if I missed, the soccer ball would get soaked and slip out of my hands. But that was all irrelevant – the Lunatic knows the soccer ball will help predict the game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

How the game would work was the following – I would shoot 10 free throws and 5 three-pointers. And then the other team would shoot. There would be 4 quarters. To start, since Michigan was the favorite, they would get to shoot last. However, whatever team was leading at the end of the quarter would get to shoot last in the next quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So – to predict the over\/under, I did a practice round to see what my average should be (since I had no clue what shooting the soccer ball would be like). I hit 7 of 10 free throws, and 1 of 5 three-pointers – so if I make the free throws 2 and the three-points 3, that is 17 points for a team in a quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First quarter, the Huskies struggled from the line – only going 5 for 10 – but they hit a 2nd three-pointer to get to 16. The Wolverines also hit 2 three-pointers, but had a two point lead thanks to making an extra free throw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both teams continued to struggle from the line – only going 5 for 10. But this time, the Wolverines only hit one of their three-pointers while the Huskies hit two. The Huskies had a 1 point half-time lead (and took over getting to go last).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Things didn’t get better in the third quarter. I started to get tired. The Wolverines only hit 5 free throws, but all 5 of their three-pointers missed. The Huskies only made 1 three-pointer, but they hit 6 of 10 from the line, so they now had a commanding 6 point lead going into the final quarter. They also had the advantage of knowing what they would have to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Things unraveled for Michigan. The Lunatic’s bad form worked OK with a basketball, but started to push all his shots to the left. He had the right distance, but kept watching as the ball went off the left side of the rim. Sadly, when the Wolverines needed me the most, I only hit 3 of 10 free throws. It looked like it might be over. But somehow being tired and realizing that he kept missing left, he compensated. And the Lunatic for the first time hit 3 of 5 from three-point range. That got to a more respectable 15 points for the quarter. At least UConn would have to hit some shots to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then the crazy thing happened. UConn made the first 5 free throws to guarantee the win. And then they didn’t stop, they hit the next 5 free throws. The Lunatic finally realizing how to compensate to the left led to a perfect 10 for 10 from the line. He then hit the next two from three-point range, just to rub it in. When I was lucky to hit half my shots in any quarter, UConn hit 12 in a row before finally missing (to the left). Just to end in style, the Lunatic did hit the last three-pointer as well for an amazing 29 point quarter. UConn ran away with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rally wasn’t enough to cover the total. It fell 4 short – so the soccer ball says to take the under. And since UConn won, I don’t have to decide whether or not to count the points or not – the soccer ball is picking the UConn Huskies to win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, there you go. If the Lunatic picked with his heart on who would win straight up, he would take Michigan. If he was picking purely on statistical analysis, here are some of the relevant stats:<\/p>\n\n\n\n