So, this is a little unfair since the games have started, but I am going to take my final bracket that I put on the blog and place the teams into brackets. This way, we can see if there are any fun matchups that the Lunatic Bracket would have created over the real bracket. While I will try to follow bracketing procedures, no promises that I don't break a rule - with 13 SEC schools, I can't guarantee that I know all the rules. I think the #1 seed is supposed to not have a chance to see a team from their conference for as long as possible, and that the top ranked team on the S-curve goes in the region closest to their school as long as it doesn't create a conflict (like playing another team from their conference). I will also use colors to help identify what was correct so that I can compare to the Bracket Matrix scoring method. So, Green is correct, Blue is off by 1 seed (light blue means that I seeded them better, dark blue means the selection committee did), Purple is in the field but off by more than 1 seed (light purple means that I seeded them better, dark purple means the selection committee did), and Red is not in the real bracket.
| Seed | South | West | East | Midwest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auburn | Florida | Duke | Houston |
| 16 | American vs Mt. St. Mary's | Norfolk State | Alabama State vs St. Francis PA | SIU - Edwardsville |
| 8 | Creighton (9) | Kansas (7) | Connecticut | Gonzaga |
| 9 | Baylor | New Mexico (10) | Mississippi State (8) | Georgia |
| 5 | Arizona (4) | Purdue (4) | Michigan | BYU (6) |
| 12 | McNeese | UC San Diego | Liberty | Drake (11) |
| 4 | Louisville (8) | Texas A&M | Clemson (5) | Wisconsin (3) |
| 13 | High Point | Grand Canyon | Yale | Akron |
| 6 | Illinois | Oregon (5) | Memphis (5) | Missouri |
| 11 | VCU | Oklahoma (9) vs San Diego State | Xavier vs Indiana | Colorado State (12) |
| 3 | Texas Tech | Iowa State | Maryland (4) | Kentucky |
| 14 | Lipscomb | Montana | UNC-Wilmington | Troy |
| 7 | Ole Miss (6) | UCLA | St. Mary's | Marquette |
| 10 | North Carolina (11) | Arkansas | Vanderbilt | Utah State |
| 2 | Michigan State | St. John's | Alabama | Tennessee |
| 15 | Wofford | Omaha | Robert Morris | Bryant |
| Bracketologist | Teams Picked Correctly | Teams Seeded Correctly | Teams Seeded Correctly or +/-1 | Final Score | Place (out of 250 brackets) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOX Sports - Mike Decourcy | 66 | 54 | 64 | 370 | Tied 12th |
| CRAZED LUNATIC | 67 | 49 | 65 | 364 | Tied 49th |
| ESPN - Joe Lunardi | 66 | 48 | 64 | 358 | Tied 109th |
| Sports Illustrated - Kevin Sweeney | 66 | 48 | 64 | 358 | Tied 109th |
| NCAA.com - Andy Katz | 66 | 47 | 64 | 356 | Tied 133rd |
| Sporting News - Bill Bender | 66 | 48 | 60 | 354 | Tied 151st |
| USA Today - Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith and Eddie Timanus | 66 | 42 | 63 | 354 | Tied 151st |
| CBS - Jerry Palm | 65 | 39 | 61 | 334 | Tied 234th |
The bubble watch was a mistake. In an attempt to do the bubble watch, I forgot a part I hate about the bubble watch. In order to write an update about a team based on their new game, you have to delete the comments you have already written. And the whole point of running a blog is not to do that. So, instead of writing over my bubble comments that I spent over 12 hours writing, I will simply start over to also make progress on the bracketology. Since I also have stats to deal with it, I might as well make the picture a little clearer for me. Lets remove the conference piece for this round - and think more about ranking. The polls tend to shape the seeding. Last year, the top 4 teams in the poll going into championship week got the 1 seeds. Typically, if you are a power conference team and in the top 20, you don't tend to more than +/- 1 seed from where the polls have you. Things get a little more variable for teams outside the 5 power conferences and for teams that lose early in their conference tournament to a team not likely to make the tournament.
The top 13 teams not being a regular season champion will automatically join my bubble. In cases where the NET ranking believes a team lower in the standings is better, I will still reserve the automatic bid for the regular season champion. If their are co-champs, I will take who the conference gave the 1 seed in their tournament.
At this point, I have to believe that the team has at least an outside shot at making the tournament.
Honestly, I don't think any of these teams have a chance to make it without winning their conference tournament. But there are enough reasons for me not to be excited about picking the teams above these (if I don't like 7 of them, could one of these make the cut. They are at least still alive in their conference tournaments. There are a couple of other power conference teams that after either not making their conference tournament (Nebraska and Penn State) or lost their first round (Pitt) that I have eliminated. If I really get into this group, I might have to look at Nebraska who went 5-10 against Quad 1 teams.
If the teams in the safe group win their tournaments, I have 44 teams. VCU, UC San Diego and New Mexico can take that list to 47. That means we have not mentioned 21 conferences - so lets list them out.
So at some point, I now have to go through my initial rankings and figure out where teams move, especially based on the conference tournaments. I have no clue what I am going to do with the SEC. Honestly, I have no idea what I am doing period. But at least, we have a starting point - so that when all my analytics fall apart, I can quickly come up with a bracket Sunday afternoon.
For those of you who follow the Lunatic, you know that he does a ton of things that make no sense. He pull box scores off the NCAA statistics site without building any models to use to make his picks. He handicaps all 67 games of the tournament despite doing a horrible job of picking the games. And yet, this blog is the part that probably takes the most time. The bracketology blog. We all know the Lunatic will lose miserably in the pool and is just a ranting, crazy person. And so can we really expect anything less than spending a couple weeks pouring over team sheets to try to predict who will make the tournament.
I was really disappointed with what ESPN did to their bubble watch page. Their model really kind of ruined it for me. So this year's blog will turn into my version of the Bubble Watch! I might be slow to update numbers in the tables or team blogs. I still have to fix my codes to get the box scores off the NCAA website after they made some format changes. I get easily distracted as is obvious by how much I digress in my ramblings - after all, I am crazy. Last year, I got so distracted that my bracketology never made it to the bracketology blog - it actually went straight into the main blog. If I had all the time in the world, this would have so much information in it, but for now, we will have to go with this.
To start, we need to identify the bubble. Instead of using a predictive model - I am going to use history to create my categories. LOCKS are teams in the AP or Coaches Top 25 Poll - with one exception. Based on my research, there have been 4 ranked teams that did not make the tournament as an at-large bid. All of the entered the week as 25th in the polls and all four of them were from non-power conferences. So, non-power #25 teams will go to should be in. SHOULD BE IN are any team in the top 30 of the NET from a power conference or top 20 of the NET from a non-power conference. UNDER CONSIDERATION are teams that I think are teams in the top 30 of the NET from the non-power conferences or top 60 of the NET who also have 1 Quad 1 win and no more than 14 losses (the most losses I remember is 15 - and an at-large team will lose in the conference tournament). LONG SHOTS / REGULAR SEASON CHAMPS - Any team in the top 80 of the NET with no more than 14 losses - or the top team from the conference. I will remove teams from power conferences with losing records and teams with a NET greater than 60 and no quad 1 wins - they can always enter the picture later.
| Conference | Automatic Bid | Locks (Top 25) | Should Be In (Top 30 NET) | Under Consideration | Long Shots / Regular Season Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEC | 2 - Auburn (1 - AP) 4 - Florida (5 - AP) 5 - Tennessee (4 - AP) 6 - Alabama (7 - AP) 20 - Texas A&M (22 - AP) 15 - Missouri (15 - AP) 12 - Kentucky (19 - AP) 33 - Mississippi State (25 - AP) |
28 - Ole Miss | 43 - Vanderbilt 39 - Arkansas 32 - Georgia 41 - Texas 50 - Oklahoma |
||
| Big 10 | 11 - Michigan State (8 - AP) 14 - Wisconsin (12 - AP) 27 - Michigan (17 - AP) 13 - Maryland (13 - AP) 16 - Purdue (18 - AP) |
17 - Illinois 26 - UCLA 30 - Oregon |
36 - Ohio State 55 - Indiana 54 - Northwestern 57 - Nebraska |
67 - Iowa | |
| Big 12 | 3 - Houston (3 - AP) 9 - Iowa State (10 - AP) 7 - Texas Tech (9 - AP) 10 - Arizona (24 - AP) 26 - BYU (23 - AP) |
24 - Kansas | 31 - Baylor 48 - West Virginia 42 - Cincinnati |
64 - Utah 71 - TCU |
|
| ACC | 1 - Duke (2 - AP) 22 - Clemson (11 - AP) 25 - Louisville (14 - AP) |
38 - North Carolina | 46 - SMU 70 - Wake Forest 59 - Pittsburgh |
||
| Big East | 18 - St. John's (6 - AP) 21 - Marquette (20 - AP) |
39 - Creighton ( 35 - Connecticut 51 - Villanova 49 - Xavier |
|||
| WCC | 18 - St Mary's (21 - AP) | 8 - Gonzaga | 51 - Santa Clara | 62 - San Francisco 80 - Oregon State |
|
| The American | 47 - Memphis (16 - AP) | 58 - North Texas | |||
| Mountain West | 44 - New Mexico 40 - Utah State 45 - Boise State 52 - San Dieog State |
56 - Colorado State 74 - Nevada |
|||
| Atlantic 10 | 29 - VCU (25 - Coaches) | 73 - George Mason 68 - Dayton 76 - Saint Joseph's |
|||
| Big West | 35 - UC San Diego | 63 - UC Irvine | |||
| Missouri Valley | 60 - Drake | ||||
| Southland | 61 - McNeese | ||||
| Ivy | 69 - Yale | ||||
| Conference USA | 72 - Liberty | ||||
| America East | 149 - Bryant | ||||
| Atlantic Sun | 87 - Lipscomb | ||||
| Big Sky | 157 - Montana | ||||
| Big South | 86 - High Point | ||||
| Colonial | 140 - Towson | ||||
| Horizon | 153 - Robert Morris | ||||
| MAAC | 186 - Quinnipiac | ||||
| MAC | 97 - Akron | ||||
| MEAC | 185 - Norfolk State | ||||
| NEC | 156 - Central Connecticut State | ||||
| OVC | 183 - SE Missouri State | ||||
| Patriot | 209 - Bucknell |
||||
| Southern | 114 - Chattanooga | ||||
| Summit | 181 - Omaha | ||||
| Sun Belt | 121 - South Alabama | ||||
| SWAC | 217 - Southern | ||||
| WAC | 112 - Utah Valley |
Historically speaking, the reason I started this is because I was annoyed with the media. Experts like Joe Lunardi from ESPN and Jerry Palm from CBS Sports have been predicting who will make the 2025 tournament since Connecticut beat by Boilermakers last April. And when Seletion Sunday comes and goes, they wil brag about how they get 67 of the 68 teams correct, and then talk about why their bracket would be better than what the Selection Committeee created. This has actually spawned a massive amount of bracketology articles (so guess we got to give Lunardi and Palm credit - they have spawned almost every major sports site to have their own version). There is even the Bracket Matrix - where 226 people submitted their prediction of the bracket - which then gets consolidated into an overall prediction of the bracket./p>
So - you want to know how the experts did. Last year, only 8 people got all 68 teams correct. But only 6 people got 65 or less teams. For the most part, they all got 67 or 66. Last year's surprise team was Virginia, who only made it in 23 of the bracketologists predictions. Some felt it should have been Oklahoma (the most common miss), some voted for St. John's, some gave the nod to Indiana State or Seton Hall (who both played in the NIT final) - but typically, there is one team that the group misses on. Then, everyone shows how happy they are that they made such a great prediction.
Yet, should we be that proud of ourselves? Everyone gets 32 games correct to start because each conference tournament champion gets an automatic invitation to the dance (well, 31 this year thanks to the demise of the Pac 12). And it does not take a rocket scientist to realize that with Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama being in the top 6 teams in the polls and only one can claim the SEC title that the other 3 will still get an invitation to the dance (or all 4 will if someone else from the competitive conference makes a run in Nashville). The polls have who the press and the coaches think are the top 25 teams and typically, they agree. So, why would we not think the 12 members of the Selection Committee won't also think those 25 teams belong in the final 68. By the time the conference tournament winners claim their bid and the committee invites the remainder of the top 25, there really is only about 10-15 spots left Getting 66-67 out of 68 sounds pretty impressive. Getting 8-9 out of 10 when your job at a sports website is to track the top teams in college basketball doesn't sound as good - so obviously, none of them bring that up. So, I wanted to show that a sleep-deprived Lunatic could also get 9 of those 10 teams right when he only researches the teams for a few weeks. Of course, I do a horrible job at seeding the teams - so maybe it is harder than it looks. Maybe this will be the year I do better than the experts. Probably not - but a Lunatic can dream - even a crazy person can have goals and aspirations, even if they are unattainable.
You might ask why I don't join the Bracket Matrix site. You don't have to be a media member - you simply need to have a site dedicated to your predictions (which I could create if necessary). I have honestly considered it a few times. As a statistican, I love the concept. If one prediction is good, a compilation of 226 predictions is likely going to be better. But the reality is that it takes a lot of time to do. Often, I am coming up with my final bracket frantically as I listen to the Big 10 final in the background a couple hours before the bracket is announced. The Bracket Matrix wants something they can link to and I just don't know that I can commit to that level of dedication. The Lunatic loves college basketball, but I am lucky enough that my wife and kids put up with my obsession for the month of March. There is also the reality that I would then start to become the thing that made me upset enough to start doing this.
You can not watch any game over the next few weeks and not see whoever is broadcasting the game put up a graphic about their prediction of the last 4 teams in as well as where they think the two teams playing will be seeded. Some of the analysis gets very interesting - you learn about the history of how similar teams have done in past years and they can sometimes even dig into the fun question of should a regular season conference champion from the Atlantic 10 get in over a 7-10 team from the SEC. It can actually be a very entertaining debate. But I also hate the influence it has to have. The 12 members of the Selection Committee are watching a lot of those games - so how much influence does ESPN, FOX and CBS have. If every game you watch, you hear the announcers say that they think Oklahoma is better than North Carolina, how can not influence your decision making when it comes times to choose the teams. I have actually started to wonder if it also backfires, where the committee intentionally picks a team no one is talking about simply to show they are not being influenced by the constant chatter. At the end of the day, I have to believe that the committee looks at the Bracket Matrix throughout their process. Who would not be able to resist to get some confirmation that they picked the right teams by seeing what everyone else would choose. I started this crazy exercise because I thought the influence was unfair - making my predictions more visible than our fun little blog might start to make me part of the thing I complain about. Still, it has become a tradition to create my prediction, and we are two weeks away from the tournament - so it is time to start the craziness.
Last year, I tried to create a stastical based selection committee and that backfired horribly. So badly that I spent time in the blog putting my normal bracket prediction vs. the statistical one since I knew that it would fall apart. Because the models were still trying to predict the best teams. If you take the top models out there and combine them to pick the top at large teams, you inevitably miss some. The model was not taking into account things like the committee rarely takes a small conference team that hasn't beaten multiple major conference top teams. I could probably spend more time analyzing these and building a model that accounts for the history, but I tend to not think about it until it is March and already a little late to do that. So, this year, I might go a different route with this blog - making it a long rambling (but hopefully fun) blog.
I was really disappointed with what ESPN did to their bubble watch page thanks to their analytics model. Even after losing in a heartbreaker to Oklahoma this week to fall to 4-11 in the SEC, they are still listed with a 48% chance to make it. They might even be correct, but I don't want to believe that a 4-11 team in any conference is still a coin-flip to make it when a 11-6 team from the ACC like North Carolina only has a 34% chance. Winning games has to matter. The ACC certainly is not as strong as the SEC this year. But it is still one of the power conferences. I can't with a straight face tell anyone that a team with only 4 wins in their conference can win 6 games against tournament teams. But my disgust at ESPN's analytics team is not my sole driver. Circumstances have helped. As I type this article, I am on a train with my family heading to New York. I love musicals and my wife found out that Joey Fatone is doing a limited engagement in & Juliet. Elizabeth simply could not miss the chance to see Joey - and Katie and I didn't need too much more of an excuse to get to see a show on Broadway. Charlie is being a good sport as we have taken his weekend hostage from playing video games. So, I literally have 12-14 hours on a train - how can I pass up the chance to correct ESPN's mistake.
The Rebels might have just put themselves in the tournament off an amazing fade-away three-pointer by Sean Padulla to lead Ole Miss to a victory against a desperate Oklahoma Sooners. They might now be in a better position than Mississippi State - but the Bulldogs are still hanging in the polls, so we will give them nod. Today's victory guaranteed the Rebels will finish no worse that .500 in the conference, which should be enough. That also is good, since with a home game against #5 Tennessee on Wednesday, and the season finale on the road at #3 Florida, they will likely already have enough wins with an opportunity to get a huge victory to move up the seed lines. If Padulla's three-pointer didn't go in and the Sooners escaped with an upset, Ole Miss would have the real possibility of losing their last 6 games going into the SEC tournament. Now, the Rebels do not need to be nervous - they can simply try to improve their resume against the Volunteers and Gators next week
The Commodores have the best conference record of the remaining SEC bubble teams. In a huge game, Vanderbilt won their third game in a row against a team that was ranked at the time as Tyler Nickel hit a three pointer with 4 seconds to send the game to overtime, and Chris Manon and AJ Hoggard took over the extra period to lead the Commodores to a 97-93 victory at home against #14 Missouri They now have their destiny in their own hands as their final games are Tuesday at home against bubble team Arkansas and on the road against bubble team Georgia. It will be hard to keep Vanderbilt out if they beat the other bubble teams next week, but honestly, they might have punched their ticket based on their recent upsets of Missouri, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
The Razorbacks looked like they were peaking at the right time, with a big upset victory over Missouri and an exciting victory at home over Texas. Then, they travelled today to last place South Carolina and lost by 19 to the Gamecocks. So, I have no clue what that means for their chances. Both games next week will be huge as they travel to Vanderbilt on Tuesday before finishing at home against Mississippi State. It is hard to say which game is more important at this point for Coach Calipari's team - they really need to not have another game like they had today.
The Bulldogs had a huge victory on Tuesday against #3 Florida to keep their bubble hopes alive. Georgia kept that momentum up in Austin Saturday night as they jumped out to a 17 point halftime lead over Texas and never looked back. Now, they travel on Tuesday to last place South Carolina and then finish at home against Vanderbilt. Then again, South Carolina is coming off victories against both Texas and Arkansas - could the Gamecocks be the SEC Bubble Destroyers. Regardless, it will be hard to keep the Bulldogs out if they finish with 4 straight SEC victories.
The Longhorns looked like they were in great shape at the start of Februrary - then they lost 5 of their last 6. Losing to ranked teams in the SEC is to be expected, but they unfortunately were just not competitive against another SEC bubble team on Saturday night. They now finish on Tuesday with a critical road trip to Mississippi State and their obvious bubble game at home against Oklahoma in what both are probably must-win games. Remember that only two teams since 1990 have been awarded an at-large bid with only 2 more wins than losses, and only 3 others did it with 3. Not only have they put themselves at risk based on winning percentage, but they now find themselves in 13th in the SEC standings. While the SEC might break the record the Big East set in 2011 with 11 teams in the tournament, you certainly won't feel good about your chances meaning that the committee has to let the SEC break that record be 2 or 3 teams.
Illinois looked like a legitimate contender until a three game losing streak by double digits to Michigan State, Wisconsin and Duke. They did get back to form on Tuesday with a 20 point victory at home against Iowa. While Illinois probably is safe, I am sure that they would love to improve their seed with huge resume-building games on the road Sunday against #15 Michigan and a home finale on Friday against my Boilermakers.
The Bruins have been very up and down this season, ranging from their huge upset early in February against Michigan State, vs. their surprising loss to Minnesota last week. Still, the Bruins have a winning record in the Big 10, which certainly should be enough to get them into the dance. They finish with two games that they should be favored in (or close - road games always are tough) - a road game against a desperate Northwestern team on Monday, and a home finale against cross-town rival USC.
The Ducks have been on a little bit of a tear - as they have won 5 straight. This includes an huge overtime road victory against Wisconsin, and of course, Saturday night's 21 point dominance of USC. They have a huge bubble game on Tuesday as they host the also-hot Indiana Hoosiers before finishing the season with a road game at Washington. I suspect that as long as the Ducks win one of those games, they will be safely in the field - and they might still be safe even if they stumble - since they would still have a .500 record in the Big 10. There are a lot of other bubble teams who simply do not have the resume that the Ducks have.
The Buckeyes have a complicated resume. The NET ranking appreciates that they have played a pretty tough schedule which leads them to a NET ranking that would typically be in the tournament. However, at 16-13, they have very little margin of error. They certainly can not lose both games this week and expect to make it without a run in the Big 10 tournament. While history might be threatening the Buckeyes, the truth is who they play might be more damaging, since they play two of the Big 10 bubble teams next to them in the standings. With Nebraska struggling, it is probably important for Ohio State to win against the Cornhuskers at home on Tuesday. They then head to Assembly Hall on Saturday to play the Hoosiers in what might actually be a play-in game.
The Hoosiers announced that Coach Rod Woodson would retire at the end of the season, as their rabid fan base had been calling for him to be fired. So, of course, it makes sense that the team has responded by winning 4 of their last 5, including major upsets against Michigan State and Purdue. Now, the Hoosiers are certainly right in the middle of the bubble conversation. The Hoosiers on Saturday won the first game of their West Coast road trip, beating Washington by 16. Now, they travel down the Pacific coast to play Oregon on Tuesday, before returning home and playing Ohio State on Saturday. The Hoosiers don't have the low NET ranking that the Buckeyes have - and so they might need to win both games this week to keep Woodson coaching for a little longer than expected.
No one has really been talking about the Wildcats, but with a NET ranking of 53 and a 3 game winning streak, they certainly could get into the discussion. They did what they needed to stay in the conversation this week by with double digit wins against Minnesota and Iowa. Next week will be a lot more difficult, as they gear up for a home game on Monday against UCLA before finishing their season on the road at Maryland. The Wildcats probably have to keep winning, since going 8-12 in the Big 10 will not be the same as going 8-12 in the SEC. But if they do win, they will own a sweep of the ranked Terrapins along with big victories against UCLA and Illinois - there are certainly bubble teams who do not have those types of wins.
The Cornhuskers have had a horrible week for a bubble team. On Monday, they lost a defensive battle to one of the conference co-leaders Michigan, as the Wolverines held on for a 3 point victory. Saturday was more painful. In a tight game, Juwan Gary made a layup in the waning seconds to give the Cornhuskers a 1 point lead much to te delight of their crowd. Of course, with no time-outs left, the Gophers rushed the ball up the court and got the ball up the court fast and hit Brennan Rigsby for a three-pointer with 4 seconds left to send the home fans home unhappy. Nebraska does have 5 Quad 1 wins, but they need to end this three game losing streak to make sure the committee keeps them in their discussions. They travel on Tuesday to Ohio State before finishing the season at home against Iowa.
The Hawkeyes are here simply because of my rules of how teams get on the list. They are a top 80 NET team. With a 1-12 record against Quad 1 teams, they likely have no chance anyways, but if they can upset the #8 Michigan State Spartans at home on Thursday and then go on the road Sunday to beat Nebraska, and then win a few games in the Big 10 tournament, you never know. But one more loss, and they join USC, Penn State and Rutgers as teams being eliminated from the bubble watch after their 15th loss.
Kansas is just not used to having this type of season. They are used to winning the Big 12 regular season title, or certainly being in the hunt. But the rest of the league has caught up to the Jayhawks. This Saturday, they played a competitive game against #10 Texas Tech but with the game tied at 73 with about 90 seconds left, the Red Raiders Darrion Williams hit a three pointer and the Red Raiders held on to win by 5. Still, while it might be an off-season for the Jayhawks, they are clearly still a very dangerous team that belongs in the tournament. Still, with the Jayhawks finishing on the road on Monday at #4 Houston and at home against #22 Arizona, it would not be totally out of the question for Kansas to enter the Big 12 tournament on a three game losing streak. Don't take this the wrong way - the Jayhawks also might cement their status in the tournament by upsetting both the Cougars and Wildcats. I have learned never to bet against Kansas.
Baylor needed Saturday's victory at home over Oklahoma State. They were on a surprising 3 game losing streak, and while no one can blame a team for losing vs. Arizona, it was a little surprising to see them then lose road games to Colorado and Cincinnati. Baylor has a key road game on Tuesday night against TCU. If they win, they will feel a lot more comfortable that they are probably in the tournament. If they lose, things will get a lot more uncomfortable for the Bears as they finish at home against #4 Houston. You never want to lose 5 out of your last 6 games when you are on the bubble. And with the Cougars having only lost 1 game in conference all season, Baylor will want to have another win under their belt before they host the Big 12 regular season champions.
West Virginia had an up and down week. On Tuesday, they beat fellow bubble team TCU by 18. On Saturday, they travelled to Provo and got destroyed by the 25th ranked Cougars. So, West Virginia sits in an interesting place. With a 5-10 record against Quad 1 teams, they certainly don't have the worry that the committee thinks they can't win a big game. And their remaining schedule is on the road against Utah and at home against UCF, two teams below them in the Big 12 standings. In theory, West Virginia should be in good shape to win both games this week, finish the season having won 3 of their last 4, and getting back to .500 in the conference. You would think that is enough. However, losing this week to either of the two teams the committee expects them to beat could certainly hurt their chances if others on the bubble go on a run.
Cincinnati might have a better NET ranking than West Virginia, but they are in worse shape. The reason for that is that Cincinnati is 1-10 against Quad 1 teams. Basically, the Bearcats have done a great job of beating teams you would expect them to beat, and has done a poor job of pulling off an upset against a ranked team. They showed this as well this week as they beat fellow bubble team Baylor at home by 2 points in a wild finish that watched Cincinnati go up 5 points with about 2 minutes to play, and then desperately hold on to the lead without scoring a point but making some great defensive stops on the Bears. Then on Saturday, they ended up falling down double digits to #4 Houston, and never really got it much closer than the 9 point final score. So, the good news for Cincinnati is their remaining schedule of Kansas State on Wednesday and a road trip to Oklahoma State. They have done great at winning these types of games, which would mean they go into the Big 12 tournament having won 4 of their last 5. But their resume can not support losing to Kansas State or Oklahoma State - they don't have enough victories against the top teams to make up for losing to the bottom of the league.
TCU has a few more Quad 1 victories than Cincinnati (including Michigan, Baylor, Texas Tech and West Virginia). So, it is unclear to me why their NET ranking is so much lower - sure they are 16-13, but Cincinnati is 17-12 and 30 spots better than them. So - TCU creates a very interesting problem for the Big 12. If they finish 10-10 in the conference, will the committee select some of the other bubble teams with worse conference records simply because of the NET ranking. They can make that picture even more murkier if they sweep their final week. They host fellow bubble team Baylor on Tuesday, and then finish the season on the road against Colorado. With where their NET ranking is, the Horned Frogs can not afford a loss. But if they win both of their games, they will create a complicated case for the Selection Committee.
<Utah's week has watched them get crushed by 17 on the road to #23 Arizona and follow it up with a 26 point home victory against Arizona State. Utah probably can not affort to lose this week, and they have a tough schedule as they host fellow bubble team West Virginia on Tuesday before traveling to their ranked rival BYU to finish the season. At this point, to be confident, they need to keep winning.
The Tar Heels are on a 5 game winning streak after winning by double digits this week against Florida State and Miami. But the number that keeps getting talked about is that they are 1-10 against Quad 1. Of course, that means that they are 18-1 against everyone else. As for their schedule, they head to Virginia Tech on Tuesday before getting one more last chance at a Quad 1 victory when they host their rivals #2 Duke in what is sure to be an amazing environment at the Dean Dome.
SMU had a little bit of a disaster happen to them on Saturday. They went on the road to Stanford and lost by 5 to fall to 12-6 in the conference. The Mustangs are considered a long shot because while they have a better NET ranking than UNC, they also have 0 wins against Quad 1 teams in 5 tries. So, getting another Quad 2 loss to Stanford did not help their cause. Their schedule also doesn't necessarily do them favors as beating Syracuse and FLorida State will not change any opinions about them. But them winning out does create an interesting dilemna for the committee. Can they really be selecting teams that performed sub-500 in conference in the SEC and Big 10, and then turn around and leave out a team that went 14-6 in the ACC. You can argue that they are not the powerhouse that the ACC used to be - but they are still the ACC. One would think that 14-6 would be good enough to get an invitation, but I am not so sure.
Wake Forest almost watch their long shot chance blow up. Their recent losses to Florida State, NC State and Virginia have hurt them. So, when they came from behind to beat Notre Dame on Saturday, they barely kept their long shot chances alive. Then, they crashed hard in Durham. To be fair, it is not unusual for the Blue Devils to run away from their opponents. But when you are a long shot bubble team, you can't lose by 33 points - even if it is the 2nd ranked team in the country. Their finale at home against Georgia Tech is certainly more winnable, but it is probably too late at this point. If they make a run in the ACC Tournament, we can re-assess, but for now, Wake Forest is only getting in if they win the ACC automatic bid, which doesn't look like a realistic possibility after tonight.
Honestly, I almost took Pitt off the list. They are 1-9 against Quad 1 teams. The best they can do in conference is 9-11, and everyone feels the conference is weak enough that we are debating the 12-6 teams as bubble teams. There are 5 teams in the conference that are either tied with them or ahead of them in the conference that don't have a NET score to be on the list. So, even if Pitt beats NC State and Boston College next week, I can't see either of those games giving them the type of win that would make the committee choose them. But they meet the other criteria, so for now, while I don't see how they can make it, I will keep track of them.
Some of the teams on the bubble are not in as much risk obviously as others. The Huskies are here because of the initial sorting rules that I created. But I can not imagine the 2025 NCAA Tournament happening without the two time defending champions. The Huskies handled their business this week by beating Georgetown and Providence. Wednesday is an exciting match-up where the Huskies host Marquette before the Huskies host Seton Hall to finish the year. While it wouldn't be great to get upset by Seton Hall, I suspect that the Huskies are simply playing this wekk for seeding of the Big East tournament as well as the NCAA Tournament.
Villanova rode the momentum of their big upset of Marquette, and continued their winning streak against Seton Hall and Butler. They only have one more game this season, as they travel Tuesday to Georgetown. Unfortunately, that game really only can hurt Villanova's chances if they lose and with it being a road game, it will be more difficult than you would expect. Villanova might need to get one more victory in the Big East Tournament against one of the top 4 teams in the conference, as they are only 2-6 against Quad 1 teams. But they need to take care of business and get pass the Hoyas first.
Xavier also might be peaking at the right time as they currently are riding a 5 game winning streak. Maybe more importantly, they crushed Creighton on Saturday 83-61 for a huge victory. Now, the negative for Xavier - that was the Musketeers first Quad 1 victory, as they lost their first 9 tries against top teams. They finish the season on the road against Butler before hosting Providence. I suspect that Xavier needs to keep expanding their winning streak, but it has been impressive about how they have gotten themselves into the discussion.
I don't know what to think about Gonzaga's chances. It also gives me great concerns about the NET rankings. I simply can't understand how a team that has gone 3-6 against the Quad 1 teams is the 8th best team in the country. St. Mary's swept the Zags this year, and they are 17th. I can understand that head to head isn't the only factor - a team playing a much different non-conference schedule could still be considered better. Still, the Gaels won the conference by 3 games and was 9-1 in the non-conference, so I am not sure there is enough to make that claim. That being said, Gonzaga also left an impressive picture this week, as they beat Santa Clara by 19 and followed it up with a 20 point victory against San Francisco - with both games being on the road. I can't imagine the committee will consider Gonzaga as a top 10 team based on their NET rating, but I can't imagine them getting left out of the top 36 at-large teams either.
Santa Clara did go 2-5 against Quad 1 teams, but I also am struggling to believe that the committee would take 3 teams from the West Coast Conference. But if they make it to the conference championship game, it likely means they had to beat St. Mary's in the semi-finals, so we will track how they do during the WCC Tournament.
San Francisco finished their season getting destroyed by Gonzaga. At least Santa Clara got to play Pacific on Saturday to get back on a winning streak. They are 1 game ahead of Santa Clara but 9 spots back in the NET rankings, probably because they were only 1-5 against Quad 1. They have the same problem that Santa Clara has - I can't see 3 WCC teams in the tournament withuot Gonzaga and St. Mary's both losing in the conference tournament. But a run to the championship could catch the committee's attention - since it would mean upsetting Gonzaga in the semi-finals.
I should probably kick Oregon State off the long shot list - if they are not going to accept 3 WCC teams, they certainly are not going to accept 5, and I can't see them taking the Beavers over the teams multiple games ahead in the standings and the ratings. They had a chance this week to make a statement, but instead they lost a close game to San Francisco before losing by 10 to St. Mary's. But they are passing all the rules, so while we will track the Beavers, they are going to need to win the WCC tournament in their first season after the Pac 12 leaving them without a conference.
North Texas has two strikes against them. They are 0-3 against Quad 1 teams, which normally dooms non-power conference regular season champions. The second strike is that they are likely not going to be the American's regular season champion, as they find themselves a game behind Memphis. They have a busy week, where they play Wichita State on Monday, last place Charlotte on Thursday, and finish the season on Sunday at Temple. It is hard for me to believe if some of the other conference champions can not get in that North Texas will be able to get selected. But if they want to keep their long shot status alive, they can't afford a loss this week against some of the .500 teams from the American.
New Mexico had a little bit of a rough stretch over the last two weeks as they lost to other Mt West contenders Boise State and San Diego State before taking out their frustrations by crushing Air Force on Saturday. That leaves them holding on to a one game lead for the regular season title with an opportunity for a Quad 1 win on the road against Nevada on Tuesday before finishing the season at home against UNLV. I think a Mountain West regular season title might be enough, especially since it also comes with non-conference victories over UCLA and VCU. But things get pretty complicated if they lose to either Nevada or UNLV and open up the door for a log-jam at the top of the standings.
Utah State had a horrible week - they lost by 17 on the road to Boise State and then lost by 27 on the road to Colorado State. Both those teams are contenders in the conference, but when you are a bubble team in the Mountain West, you don't have the luxury of getting blown out of the gym. Their only remaining game is at home against last place Air Force, so while they likely will finish at 25-6 for the season, they will need a lot of unrealistic things to happen to claim a share of the conference title. And if that happens, it weakens some of their bigger wins. They do have a nice non-conference victory over St. Mary's, but they might need to also get to the Mountain West championship game to get an at-large bid.
Boise State is riding a 4 game winning streak as thhey face last place Air Force on Tuesday before hosting Colorado State in a huge game on Friday night. They also have some nice wins against St. Mary's and Clemson. One would think winning out would put them in good shape on the bubble, but it is hard to figure out what the committee will do with a competitive non-power conference. Still, it is obviously in their best interests to keep their winning streak going.
Colorado State has an interesting place in the conference and the bubble. Right now, they are all alone in second place and just one game behind New Mexico. If they can beat San Jose State on Tuesday, win on the road in a huge bubble game against Colorado State, and New Mexico stumbles in one of their games, they could end up in a tie for the Mountain West regular season title. Now, the bad news for Colorado State is that unlike the other Mountain West teams on the bubble, their big non-conference Quad 1 games against Ole Miss and VCU did not go well - so their only Quad1 win is a road victory at Nevada. And with Nevada being 8-10 in the conference, it is unlikely that victory will propel Colorado State into the tournament. They need to keep winning, but they also might need a lot of help.
Nevada is a huge long shot. First of all 17-14 teams from the Mountain West do not get at large bids, so they have to win their last two games, which will not be easy. That is because they host league leader New Mexico on Tuesday before travelling to play fellow bubble team San Diego State. Their only Quad 1 victory is VCU (which is starting to make me laugh that VCU played so many Mountain West teams). It also raises something that is awkward about the Quad system. If they beat conference leader New Mexico on Tuesday, it will still only be a Quad 2 win because a home win against a team in the 40s doesn't count as a Quad 1. But if they lose to New Mexico, the Lobos will get credit for a Quad 1 win for beating the 7th place team in the conference). On the other hand, if Nevada goes on the road Saturday and beats San Diego State (curently tied for 4th), that will be a Quad 1 win. It is so weird to think that the bigger victory is against the 4th place team instead of the 1st place team - and yet, that is how much home court advantage appears to matter. To be fair, the quads don't matter in this case. Nevada really is simply playing spoiler in the conference. They have a chance to knock New Mexico down off the top of the standings, but without finishing the season on a winning streak and getting to the championship game of the tournament, they will not make the NCAAs. And they then likely need to win the automatic bid.....
VCU could be this year's Indiana State. Last year, ISU was the team with a top 30 NET ranking who won their conference regular season only to lose in the conference tournament, and then when they looked at the Selection Committee to give them an at-large bid, the committee said no. VCU's only Quad 1 win is their road game against Dayton, which is problematic. The Rams are a good team, and obviously, the Lunatic is rooting for the local Richmond team. But if I had to guess what the committee will do, the best advice I can give the Rams is take the decision out of their hands and win the Atlantic 10 tournament. VCU finishes the season with a road trip to Duquesne before a pretty tough home game against Dayton (which because of the rankings, the home game will not be a Quad 1 game). So, VCU has to play the team that is the biggest win on their schedule again, and won't get much credit for it if they win. It certainly will help the Rams to win their remaining two games this week - but honestly, the only game that might matter is winning the Atlantic 10 tournament championship next week.
George Mason had a bubble crushing loss on Saturday on the road at Duquesne. They play at home against LaSalle before finishing here in Richmond against the Spiders - both games that will only hurt them further if they lose. But honestly, the damage is probably already done - their only quad 1 win is also a road trip earlier this year to Dayton. So, that lost put them one game behind VCU in the standings. They needed to be able to claim a regular season title of the Atlantic 10, and that might have slipped away on Saturday.
Dayton saved their long shot hopes by surviving a double overtime game against Richmond on Saturday. That leaves them with some of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 - hosting St. Louis on Tuesday before coming to Richmond to play the current conference leader VCU. Dayton has something the other Atlantic 10 teams do not have - they were able to beat Marquette and Connecticut during the non-conference season. Unfortunately, they have something else that VCU doesn't have - 4 more losses to Atlantic 10 teams. It would be really tough for the committee to choose Dayton over VCU - even if the Flyers win on Saturday. So, while they have some impressive wins, their tournament hopes might also lie in winning the conference tournament, or at a minimum having VCU also make the field.
St. Joseph's has a Quad 1 victory from the non-conference over Texas Tech, but they are in a similar boat to Dayton. The committee doesn't typically take a team that is tied for 3rd in a non-power conference when they don't take the top 2 teams (or at least the top one). They have a reasonable schedule left as they host Rhode Island on Wednesday and then travel for their finale to LaSalle. But their hopes of an at-large bid likely depend on beating VCU in the Atlantic 10 tournament (of which, if that happens depending on how the four teams tied for 3rd get seeded, they might have the automatic bid anyways since the 3rd or 6th seed won't see VCU until the championship).
UC San Diego claims to be 2-1 against Quad 1. The problem is those wins were Utah State and UC Irvine - those are both very good teams but the committee is looking for who they can beat from the power conferences. So, at the moment, the only thing they can do is keep winning. If they are going to make it, they need to making the Big West Championship before they get a loss. They want to make the committee explain why they did not accept a 30-5 team. They play Long Beach State and at UC Davis to finish the season before the Big West tournament begins.
UC Irvine's only Quad 1 game is when they beat UC San Diego on the road. Once again - that is a great victory that probably is not going to do much for their chances. At this point, their only hopes is that both them and UC San Diego make the championship game, and then it is a thriller of a game. Realistically, their only chance is to win the Big West championship - but that starts by winning on the road this week against UC Davis and UC Santa Barbara.
I hate stories like Drake. With a NET at 59, they are going to need to win the MVC tournament. But if they lose and need an at large bid, they will be a team with 27-29 wins that will likely get left out. What's worse is for the most part, they have done everything they were supposed to do. They won the Charleson Classic in November, including victories over Vanderbilt and Miami. They went on the road and beat Kansas State. They finished their non-conference schedule undefeated. Is it their fault they ended up with 3 power conference teams on their schedule and only 1 of them was good enough for people to consider worthy. But the committee is going to say they have 3 Quad 3 losses to Bradley (by 2), UIC (by 4) and Murray State (by 7). They never look at it like this. Drake beat Vanderbilt (a team looking more and more likely to be in the field) by 11 on a neutral court. Vanderbilt has lost 7 games by double digits - including the game to Drake. Drake has lost 3 games by a total of 13 points. And yet, Vanderbilt is the team that is likely safely in. Drake is not allowed to have an off-shooting night, because when they do that, they lose by 7 to Murray State and they are viewed simply as not good enough to play in the tournament. Vanderbilt has an off-shooting night and lose by 30 on the road to Oklahoma, and that is just the type of thing that happens - teams lose on the road in the SEC. It is not fair. But if Indiana State did not get into the tournament with a NET ranking below 30, Drake isn't likely to get an at-large bid with one in the 50s either.
McNeese is one of the classic non-power conference champions. They have wrapped up the conference by 5 games. They also were very competitive in their games against teams on this list. But here is the problem. They lost by 8 on the road to Alabama, they beat fellow long shot team North Texas by 7, they lost to fellow long shot team Liberty by 4, they lost to Santa Clara by 7, and Mississippi State by 3. Considering that Alabama and Mississippi State have been beating other SEC teams by double digits at home, keeping the games close is impressive. But it will not get them an at-large bid.
Yale lost their first game in the Ivy league on Saturday in a road game at Harvard, but they already have the Ivy regular season title wrapped up by 4 games. The problem for Yale is the only Quad 1 game they got was an 8 point loss to my Boilermakers in November. While that is a respectable game at Mackey Arena for a non-power conference team, all the committe will see is a 0-1 record against teams that could play in the tournament - Yale needs to win the Ivy league tournament.
Liberty was a long shot to begin with - they have played no games against Quad 1. Their biggest victories came in November at the Paradise Jam, where they beat Kansas State and McNeese. However, their loss Sunday to Kennesaw State has actually knocked them a half game behind Jacksonville State in the Conference USA standings. They might still end up top of the standings if they beat Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky this week, but with Conference USA not having any teams in the top 80 of the NET, having 5 losses in conference already sealed their fate. They really likely have to win the Conference USA tournament.
