Category: Uncategorized

  • Scenarios Pages are loaded

    My apologies for the long delay for the Scenarios Pages being loaded.  But they are there – just see the links on the side.

    Assuming I have done things right, some of my original leads were incorrect from just looking at the standings page last week.  The part that is correct is that Rick Flynn appears to have wrapped up the Upset Pool – congratulations Rick!!!!  Here look like the un-official winners for the other scenarios:

    Here are the expected champions – assuming no errors (which as we know from the Lunatic is not always a reasonable assumption).

    Eventual Champion

    Standard Pool Winner

    Second Chance Winner

    Louisville beats Michigan Kyle Kelly (1100) Rich Feyerabend (960)
    Louisville beats Syracuse Don Schumaker (1130) Rich Feyerabend (840)
    Wichita St beats Michigan Rick Flynn (1050) Rich Feyerabend (680)
    Wichita St beats Syracuse Rick Flynn (930) Joe Vellozzi

    Dana Miller

    Rich Feyerabend (560)

    Michigan beats Louisville Rick Flynn (1210) Rich Feyerabend (800)
    Michigan beats Wichita St Rick Flynn (1210) Rich Feyerabend (680)
    Syracuse beats Louisville Austin McElroy

    Jim Peters

    Joe Vellozzi (1070)

    Joe Vellozzi (840)
    Syracuse beats Wichita St Austin McElroy

    Jim Peters

    Joe Vellozzi (950)

    Joe Vellozzi (720)

     

  • 2013 Season Games are Loaded on the Site

    Only missing three games – the ACC Championship Game, Atlantic 10 Championship Game, and Big 10 Championship Game.   Don’t have a good explanation why the SEC game was available and the other three were not from today – but it is the best I can do at the moment.

    Obviously, take the data with a grain of salt.  I have done some basic cleaning and quality checks against RPI data – but to be fair, it is also 1 am – and so my chances for errors have probably increased.  🙂

    Joking aside, I am pretty sure that all the basic information that you might need should be here.  And for those of you who are not familiar with this tradition, I will give you some more details.

    As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

    So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I just randomly pick late Wednesday evening.

    However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort. So, just click on 2013 Schedule in the Admin menu and get an Excel spreadsheet with summary box score and standing / RPI information for each game for every Division I team.

    One potential error – I did not have the RPI data available to help me error check the final week of games.  So, I made some educated guesses on venues – for example, considering Vanderbilt, St. John’s and Tulsa as hosts of their conference tournaments since the games were played in the same city as their schools.  Not sure this is how the NCAA considers it, but I figured it was probably an accurate reflection.

    If you notice something terribly wrong, let me know – no promises I have time to fix it, but at least everyone will know.

    Enjoy the data!!!!

     

  • Update on stats

    Well – I have now validated that I have all the games through March 10th correct.  I also know I have the games between March 11th – 14th are correct as far as scores – not 100% sure about venue – my interpretation from other neutral court games is that Vanderbilt playing the SEC tournament in Nashville, TN actually counts as a home game for them because it is the city of their school.  But don’t have any final rankings to compare against.

    So, I know the games missing from Friday and Saturday.  Now, it is just a time issue.  I should hopefully be able to get the full set of stats up some time late tonight.  I am really sorry if that messes anyone up.

     

     

  • Comments being turned off until next year

    As many of you know, this site is used for the basketball tournament.  Recently, the site has been attacked by traceback spam – which has caused me to have to delete 30 comments from the site over the last 2 days.  I don’t have the patience to do that all year, and so to prevent this, I am just turning off the option to comment until we start using the site again.

    Thanks for your understanding!  And in the rare case that any of the people who are attacking my site read this, please stop!  It is annoying and inappropriate.  My site is not here for free advertising for your products – it is for people who enjoy college basketball and want to talk about the tournament.

  • Congratulations to the Third Round Leaders

    After the Sweet 16 games were done, Ella Flora has taken the lead in the tournament with 720 points.  Ella is closely followed though as Brady Meigham, TJ Acuto, and Stephen Glass are just 30 points behind, and Dave Evans, Kate Yost, Joseph Allen, David Caldwell, and Trent Hodges are just 40 points behind.   Interesting fact – none of these excellent picks are in the top 5 of the Upset pool.

    In the Upset Pool, Christina Lee maintains her lead at 265.  Christina is closely followed by Keith Schleicher (6 pts behind), Vernon McGeorge III (26 pts behind), Keith Lancette (27 pts behind), and Rick Flynn (28 pts behind).

    In the Second Chance Pool, congratulations to Shirli Zelcer and Taylor Early who correctly picked all 8 games of the Sweet 16.  They are followed closely by 28 people who all got 7 of 8 correct – so the Second Chance Pool looks like anyone’s battle.

    Good luck to everyone in the Elite 8!!!!

  • And the Tar Heel state breathes a sigh of relief

    The clock struck midnight on Cinderella, and she said “But I still want to dance.”  And unlike the fairy tale, the dance continued for 5 minutes.  But in the end, the result was the same.  Cinderella’s dance was over – and in this fairy tale, number 1 seed UNC survives to play another day.

    Don’t know if the extra 2 days of healing will be enough for Kendall Marshall – but the Tar Heels should hope for it – because they did not look anywhere close to the same team without Marshall steering the ship.  Then again, part of that has to be also because of an incredibly well played game by the Ohio Bobcats.

    And then there was one – with the losses by Xavier and Ohio, the only double digit left in the tournament is North Carolina State.  Will the Wolfpack be able to fit into the glass slipper, or will Kansas send our last Cinderella home.

     

  • Well this is exciting

    That half court shot almost went in!!!!!   5 more minutes of David and Goliath.  Can the MAC Champion actually take down the ACC Champion.  Unbelievable.  Should be a fun 5 minutes!

  • The ever popular Charlie and Katie picks are revealed

    As has become a tradition, Charlie and Katie explain the logic of their picks – with some obvious embellishments from their daddy.

    This year, Katie’s pick includes a little video that shows what Nanny and Grandpa have been teaching the children about being a fan of North Carolina.

    Just click on Charlie’s picks or Katie’s picks here or on the site navigator.

  • And if you were wondering…..

    If Friday’s craziness would linger.  Game #1 – 11 seed North Carolina State beats 3 seed Georgetown 66-63.  And they become the first double digit seed to make the Sweet 16.  We are guaranteed 2 more with Xavier/Lehigh and South Florida/Ohio.  Will any of the other underdogs join the insanity?  Only time will tell.

  • Congratulations to our 1st Round Leaders

    Great job by Davis Kim, Ella Flora and Josh Martin – they went 26-6 to take a 10 point lead over the 13 entries at 25-7.

    Also, congratulations to our Upset leaders – Bob Degenhardt and Michael Bargar whose picks have earned them 146 points – and a 3 point lead over Parker Waite.

    The Lunatic’s insane picks are lingering unusually close to the top in the group tied for 17th at 24-8.   But those same picks have Wichita State in the Final 4 – so there is plenty of time for them to come back to expectations.

    Good luck to everyone – and congratulations to our leaders for their great job of forecasting the first round!