The 2026 Lunatic Bracketology Blog

Introduction to the Blog

Well, in a strange way, this might be the closest I have come to truly doing this crazy experiment. Historically, I started this bracketology page a long time ago because I was annoyed with the media. Experts like Joe Lunardi from ESPN and Jerry Palm from CBS Sports have been predicting who will make the 2026 tournament since Florida beat Houston last April. And when Selection Sunday comes and goes, they will brag about getting 67 of the 68 teams correct and then comment about why their bracket would be better than what the Selection Committee created. In one perspective, you have to give them credit. Bracketology has spawned into a life of its own - as it seems every major media outlet has their own bracketology article. There is even the Bracket Matrix - where hundreds of people submit their prediction of the bracket, which then gets consolidated into an overall prediction of the bracket.

Historically speaking, the reason I started this is because I was annoyed with the media. Experts like Joe Lunardi from ESPN and Jerry Palm from CBS Sports have been predicting who will make the 2025 tournament since Connecticut beat by Boilermakers last April. And when Seletion Sunday comes and goes, they wil brag about how they get 67 of the 68 teams correct, and then talk about why their bracket would be better than what the Selection Committeee created. This has actually spawned a massive amount of bracketology articles (so guess we got to give Lunardi and Palm credit - they have spawned almost every major sports site to have their own version). There is even the Bracket Matrix - where 226 people submitted their prediction of the bracket - which then gets consolidated into an overall prediction of the bracket./p>

Last year was a proud year for me as I did better (using the Bracket Matrix scoring method) than the majority of the media, with only Fox Sports' Mike Decourcy doing better. Of course, I still didn't do better than a ton of the people on the Bracket Matrix, but I still did much better than I normally do.

But should we really be that proud of ourselves. Everyone gets 31 teams correct to start because each conference tournament champion gets an automatic invitation to the dance. And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that Duke, Arizona and Michigan will be #1 seeds when the bracket is announced. The polls have who the press and the coaches think are the top 25 teams - and typically, they agree with each other. The Selection Committee certainly comes up with their own ranking based off more than simply how the team has been doing lately (polls tend to have to move a team down because of a loss), but at the end of the day, if that many members of the press and the coaches all agree that a team is in the top 25, it would be a true surprise, it the committee said they were all wrong.

By the time we really get through all the conference tournament automatic bids and the top 25, there really is only about 10-15 spots left. Getting 66 or 67 out of 68 might sound impressive, but getting 8 or 9 out of 10 when your job at a sports website is to track the top teams doesn't sounds as great. So, I wanted to show that a sleep-deprived Lunatic could also get 9 of those 10 teams right when he only researches the teams for a few weeks. Historically, I do horribly at seeding the teams, so maybe it is harder than it looks.

This year, I am really trying to put this to the test. I don't typically start this late. Normally, I already have most of my data pulled and I am using it to look through resumes. This year, I am a true mess. So, if I can beat the media again, I will be thrilled!!!!

You might ask why I don't join the Bracket Matrix site. You don't have to be a media member - you simply need to have a site dedicated to your predictions (which I could create if necessary). I have honestly considered it a few times. As a statistican, I love the concept. If one prediction is good, a compilation of 226 predictions is likely going to be better. But the reality is that it takes a lot of time to do. Often, I am coming up with my final bracket frantically as I listen to the Big 10 final in the background a couple hours before the bracket is announced (considering how far behind schedule I am this year, I will be shocked if this is not how my Sunday looks in the future). The Bracket Matrix wants something they can link to and I just don't know that I can commit to that level of dedication. The Lunatic loves college basketball, but I am lucky enough that my wife and kids put up with my obsession for the month of March.

There is also the reality that I would then start to become the thing that made me upset enough to start doing this. You can not watch any game over the next few weeks and not see whoever is broadcasting the game put up a graphic about their prediction of the last 4 teams in. Sometimes, it can create a pretty interesting and entertaining debate (which is why TV networks like ESPN, FOX and CBS do this). But I hate the influence that it has to have. The 12 members of the Selection Committee are watching a lot of these games, seeing these graphics, getting up-to-the-minute probability estimates on the chances a team has according to the network, and I am supposed to believe that doesn't effect them. If you were watching a game, and the TV channel said "Our model predicts that this team has a 78% chance of making the tournament, would you be able to decide their fate without taking that probability into consideration.

For right now, I am simply going to try to get the bubble established. But I will add commentary on the teams as I go along

Consensus Locks - In Both Polls and Top 30 of NET

22 teams (with 6 projected automatic bids)

Teams ranked in the Top 25 almost always make the tournament - the only exception tends to be if a team barely in the top 25 is from a mid-major conference, doesn't have more than 1 Quad 1 win, and unexpectedly loses in their conference tournament.

Duke (29-2) ACC #1 Seed

AP = 1, Coaches = 1, NET = 1, WAB = 2

Arizona (29-2) Big 12 #1 Seed

AP = 2, Coaches = 2, NET = 3, WAB = 3

Michigan (29-2) Big 10 #1 Seed

AP = 3, Coaches = 3, NET = 2, WAB = 1

Florida (25-6) SEC #1 Seed

AP = 4, Coaches = 4, NET = 4, WAB = 4

Houston (26-5)

AP = 5, Coaches = 5, NET = 7, WAB = 5

Connecticut (27-4)

AP = 6, Coaches = 6, NET = 9, WAB = 5

Iowa State (25-6)

AP = 7, Coaches = 7, NET = 8, WAB = 13

Michigan State (25-6)

AP = 8, Coaches = 8, NET = 11, WAB = 7

Illinois (24-7)

AP = 9, Coaches = 9, NET = 6, WAB = 11

Virginia (27-4)

AP = 10, Coaches = 11, NET = 13, WAB = 10

Nebraska (26-5)

AP = 11, Coaches = 10, NET = 12, WAB = 8

Gonzaga (29-3) WCC Automatic Bid

AP = 12, Coaches = 12, NET = 5, WAB = 16

St. John's (25-6) Big East #1 Bid

AP = 13, Coaches = 13, NET = 22, WAB = 20

Kansas (22-9)

AP = 14, Coaches = 16, NET = 19, WAB = 14

Alabama (23-8)

AP = 15, Coaches = 15, NET = 17, WAB = 9

Texas Tech (22-9)

AP = 16, Coaches = 14, NET = 15, WAB = 18

Arkansas (23-8)

AP = 17, Coaches = 17, NET = 18, WAB = 17

Purdue (23-8)

AP = 18, Coaches = 18, NET = 10, WAB = 12

North Carolina (24-7)

AP = 19, Coaches = 19, NET = 23, WAB = 19

Vanderbilt (24-7)

AP = 22, Coaches = 22, NET = 23, WAB = 19

Wisconsin (22-9)

AP = 23, Coaches = 23, NET = 26, WAB = 22

Louisville (22-9)

AP = 24, Coaches = 24, NET = 14, WAB = 21

SHOULD BE IN

10 teams (with 3 projected automatic bids)

These are teams ranked in one of the polls or the top 30 of NET (with more than 1 Quad 1 win). These are teams that are probably going to be in, but the Lunatic needs to do a quick evaluation of their profile. Since there is not a consensus between the polls and rankings, there is a small chance that a blemish exists in their resume that could keep them out (especially if their WAB > 30).

Tennessee (21-10)

AP = 25, Coaches = RV, NET = 21, WAB = 24

Miami (FL) (24-7)

AP = RV, Coaches = 25, NET = 32, WAB = 27

Miami (OH) (31-0) MAC #1 Seed

AP = 20, Coaches = 20, NET = 55, WAB = 31

St. Mary's (26-5)

AP = 21, Coaches = 21, NET = 20, WAB = 26

BYU (21-10)

AP = RV, Coaches = RV, NET = 24, WAB = 23

Iowa (20-11)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 25, WAB = 39

St. Louis (26-4) Atlantic 10 #1 Seed

AP = RV, Coaches = N/A, NET = 27, WAB = 40

Kentucky (19-12)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 28, WAB = 28

Utah State (24-6) Mountain West #1 Seed

AP = RV, Coaches = RV, NET = 29, WAB = 34

Ohio State (20-11)

AP = RV, Coaches = RV, NET = 30, WAB = 35

BUBBLE TEAMS IN BASED ON NET

14 teams (assuming above teams win the 9 projected automatic bids)

Since I haven't done any research yet other than basic looking at the NET rankings and polls, lets simply list out the teams by the NET ranking so we don't miss a team to discuss. There will be two exceptions that I will make here. The committee doesn't like teams without having more than 1 Quad 1 win. The committee has also never given a team an at large bid to a team with 15 regular season losses. We will keep them on the page, but they will fall into a lower category.

Georgia (22-9)

AP = RV, Coaches = RV, NET = 31, WAB = 29

Villanova (24-7)

AP = RV, Coaches = RV, NET = 33, WAB = 25

UCLA (21-10)

AP = RV, Coaches = RV, NET = 34, WAB = 30

NC State (19-12)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 35, WAB = 43

Clemson (22-9)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 36, WAB = 32

Indiana (18-13)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 37, WAB = 47

Santa Clara (25-7)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 38, WAB = 36

SMU (19-12)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 39, WAB = 48

TCU (21-10)

AP = RV, Coaches = N/A, NET = 41, WAB = 33

Texas (17-13)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 42, WAB = 44

Texas A&M (21-10)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 43, WAB = 37

New Mexico (21-9)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 45, WAB = 52

Cincinnati (17-14)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 46, WAB = 62

San Diego State (19-10)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 47, WAB = 55

BUBBLE OUT BY NET (AND HISTORIC RULES)

These are including the teams that would have been in the at large position by NET but failed one of the two historic rules. At this point, I want to be inclusive, so this will go through the NET 60 (with teams failing one of the two historic rules falling to the long shot group.

Auburn (16-15)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 40, WAB = 45

VCU (24-7)

AP = RV, Coaches = N/A, NET = 44, WAB = 42

South Florida (22-8) American #1 Seed

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 49, WAB = 60

UCF (20-10)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 51, WAB = 38

Oklahoma (17-14)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 54, WAB = 57

Virginia Tech (19-12)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 55, WAB = 46

Boise State (19-10)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 57, WAB = 53

West Virginia (18-13)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 58, WAB = 68

Stanford (20-11)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 59, WAB = 49

Missouri (20-11)

AP = RV, Coaches = N/A, NET = 60, WAB = 41

Long Shots

This list has anyone in the NET ranked before 60th, as well as anyone in the top 80 with at least 1 Quad 1 win.

Baylor (15-15)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 48, WAB = 64

Tulsa (23-6)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 50, WAB = 66

Akron (24-5)

AP = RV, Coaches = N/A, NET = 52, WAB = 61

Seton Hall (20-11)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 56, WAB = 58

Belmont (25-6)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 63, WAB = 63

California (20-10)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 64, WAB = 50

Wake Forest (16-15)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 66, WAB = 74

Arizona State (16-15)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 67, WAB = 59

Grand Canyon (20-11)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 68, WAB = 76

FLorida State (17-14)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 69, WAB = 69

Colorado (17-14)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 71, WAB = 71

Nevada (20-11)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 73, WAB = 75

Dayton (21-10)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 76, WAB = 72

USC (17-13)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 77, WAB = 54

Oklahoma State (18-13)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 79, WAB = 51

Wichita State (20-10)

AP = N/A, Coaches = N/A, NET = 80, WAB = 88

AUTOMATIC BIDS

The remaining automatic bids - will give each team a line so I can move them around when I am ready to seed teams.

MVC - Northern Iowa (22-12, NET = 72)

Big South - High Point (27-4, NET = 75)

OVC - Tennessee State (20-9, NET = 173)

NEC - Long Island (23-10, NET = 200)

Atlantic Sun - Queens (20-13, NET = 188)

Summit - North Dakota State (24-7, NET = 115)

Sun Belt - Troy (20-11, NET = 126)

Southern - Furman (19-12, NET = 185)

Horizon - Wright State (20-11, NET = 129)

Coastal - Hofstra (21-10, NET = 88)

MAAC - Siena (22-11, NET = 189)

Southland - Wednesday Stephen F Austin (25-4, NET = 86) vs McNeese State (24-5, NET = 62)

Patriot - Wednesday Lehigh (15-16, NET = 282) vs Boston (16-16, NET = 257)

Big Sky - Wednesday Montana (14-14, NET = 193) vs Idaho (16-14, NET = 161) / Eastern Washington (13-18, NET = 196)

America East - Saturday UMBC (20-8, NET = 205) vs Vermont (19-11, NET = 224)

MEAC - Saturday Top 2 seeds are Howard (17-10, NET = 201) and Morgan State (11-15, NET = 352)

SWAC - Saturday Top 2 seeds are Bethune-Cookman (16-14, NET = 254) and Southern (12-16, NET = 277)

Conf USA - Saturday Top 2 seeds are Liberty (22-6, NET = 100) and Sam Houston State (18-10, NET = 104)

Big West - Saturday Top 2 seeds are UC-Irvine (20-10, NET = 118) and Hawaii (20-8, NET = 112)

WAC - Saturday Top 2 seeds are Utah Valley (21-7, NET = 85) and California Baptist (23-8, NET = 103)

Ivy - Sunday Top 2 seeds are Yale (21-5, NET = 65) and Harvard (16-11, NET = 149)

Likely Eliminated but they are in the NET top 80

These are the remaining top 80 teams in the NET that likely are eliminated, but will give them their reward for making the top 80 (just in case they make a run in their conference tournament).

• Washington (NET 61 - 15-16) - playing USC on Wednesday in Big 10 tournament
• McNeese State (NET 62 - 24-5 - no Q1 wins) - must win Southland final on Wednesday to dance
• Yale (NET 65 - 21-5 - no Q1 wins) - must win Ivy tournament on Saturday and Sunday to dance
• Northwestern (NET 70 - 13-18) - playing Indiana on Wednesday in Big 10 tournament
• Minnesota (NET 74 - 15-16) - playing Rutgers on Wednesday in Big 10 tournament
• LSU (NET 78 - 15-16) - playing Kentucky on Wednesday in SEC tournament