It is almost an inevitability that many of you will Stomp the Lunatic - and we all know that drives the Lunatic crazy. He loves college basketball so much that he feels he has to show that he can provide tons of brilliant analysis and insight to predict the games. So, he has created this extremely time-consuming part of his website where since he knows his bracket is going to burn in flames, he will demonstrate his brilliance of picking games by picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines. Because if he can't beat half the people in the pool, it is clearly obvious that he can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers.
Lunatic Disclosure #1This is for recreational purposes only. The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!!
Lunatic Disclosure #2:In case you haven't read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you. I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.
Lunatic Disclosure #3:In case you haven't read the first two disclosures, I have lost imaginary money in this silly feature for most of the years (although I did well the last few years) - I am not really sure why I keep doing it because it really takes a lot of effort. Oh yeah!!! I am crazy about college basketball.
Lunatic Disclosure #4:If you are in Virginia, then you know that from all the FanDuel and DraftKings commercials that some online sportsbooks are now legally operating in Virginia. And despite the fact that I could, I will not create an account on one of those sites and place a bet on ANY of these handicapping choices.
That's right - even though I now could possibly place these bets, I still will not do that. With my luck, that means since I have nothing riding on it, I will be wildly successful this year. But the reality is that I have poor luck when my money is on the game - we all know of the Lunatic Curse.
I am happy to go to my imaginary casino and bet imaginary money on games that I really know absolutely little information about the teams to provide an entertaining blog. Typically it is fun watching me do horribly on spreads and trying to make it up by winning on the over/unders. My commentary on the games are ludicrous since I have no business handicapping any of these games. That is what makes it entertaining.
But at the end of the day, it still is imaginary. No real money gets lost. And the truth is gambling can be a dangerous addiction. I never really worried much about it because where I lived I had the realization that most sane people would never use these picks to make a real bet, and most of us lived in an area where you could not bet on the games. So even if you were crazy enough to try, you couldn't do it.
Now that at least those of us who live in the same state as me have options, I need to really emphasize the point. I do this for fun. It is entertaining for me to see how I do, and I think it is entertaining for the readers to read the commentary. And despite the unusual result from last year where I ended ahead about $40, the Lunatic certainly does not do well enough to be considered a credible handicapper. A sleep-deprived and crazy handicapper - absolutely. Credible - only in the Lunatic's dreams. I will not be betting my money on any of these picks, and so that tells you how much faith I have in them.
Anyways, here is the structure. I predict every game - because what fun would it be otherwise. To give myself a chance, I tier my bets into three types.
A $10 imaginary bet means I have absolutely no clue. I also tend to bet small on games where I have a huge bias (such as when my Boilers play). I can’t make an imaginary bet against the team I want to win. No true fan would go into a Vegas sportsbook and bet against their team - neither will the Lunatic
A $20 imaginary bet means I have some confidence that my pick will win.
A $30 imaginary bet means I am so confident I would lock that pick and go big.
I also have a tendency after a bad first set of games to stop the tier structure and just bet the same amount on every game. I would probably be intelligent to do that to start - but lets face it. There is a tremendous amount of humor in watching the Lunatic curse crush all the picks that I lock.
Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit the games that I have no clue. Maybe I am not giving myself a good chance by tiering my bets!!!
As you know, I sadly lost my Word Press sites, so this page might suffer in appearance for it. I also don't know that I will be able to proudly show the amazing picks I did last year in time. I have them in a horrible format from the WordPress database that I can eventually restore, but I might run out of time before the tournament. We'll see how the bracketology piece goes. However, I do still have the pages from before I foolishly tried to move to a blog format.
| Day | Record against spread | Record against totals |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday's First Four | 1 - 1 - 0 ($8) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-12) |
| Wednesday's First Four | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-1) | 2 - 0 - 0 ($36) |
| Thursday's First Round | 9 - 7 - 0 ($-62) | 6 - 10 - 0 ($-80) |
| Friday's First Round | 8 - 8 - 0 ($-61) | 7 - 9 - 0 ($-72) |
| Saturday's Second Round | 4 - 4 - 0 ($-12) | 2 - 6 - 0 ($-126) |
| Sunday's Second Round | 3 - 5 - 0 ($-69) | 6 - 2 - 0 ($102) |
| Thursday's Sweet 16 | 0 - 4 - 0 ($-120) | 2 - 2 - 0 ($-6) |
| Friday's Sweet 16 | 0 - 4 - 0 ($-120) | 0 - 4 - 0 ($-120) |
| Saturday's Elite 8 | 0 - 0 - 0 ($0) | 0 - 0 - 0 ($0) |
| Overall | 26 - 34 - 0 ($-437) | 26 - 34 - 0 ($-278) |
The Fighting Illini and Hawkeyes played each other in early January at Iowa. In that game, Illinois jumped out to an 18 point lead in the first half, and then held off a furious rally by Iowa over the last 10 minutes of the game to win by 6. I have been so impressed with what Iowa has done this post-season. But you have to wonder when the team playing with house money finally runs out of time. The Fighting Illini have an amazing offense that can go on runs (like the 17-0 run they did on Houston in the Sweet 16). And with no offense meant to Iowa's Bennett Stirtz who is incredible, I think that Keaton Wagler is the best player who will be on the court. So, I am going to go with Illinois.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Illinois(30) Totals: Over(30)
Hail! Hail! To Old Purdue! All Hail to the Old Gold and Black!!! Hail! Hail! To Old Purdue! Our Friendship may she never lack! Ever grateful, ever true! So we raise our song anew! Of the days we spent with you! All Hail to Old Purdue!!!!! Is the Lunatic scared of this game - of course! Arizona just scored 109 points on a good Arkansas team. But if anyone can hang in there with the Arizona big men, it is Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff. BOILER UP!!!!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(30) Totals: Over(30)
At this point, I am doing so badly against the spread that I am just going to pick based on who I want to see win the game. Saint John's has been playing incredible basketball, but I think that Duke has too much strength inside and of course has the Boozer brothers. As good as Saint John's is, if you get a chance to take the #1 team in the country and don't have to give up double digit points, you have to take the Blue Devils.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Duke 80, Saint John's 75 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
There is what my mind is telling me, and there is what my heart is telling me. The Big 10 is really dominating at the moment, and Michigan won by double digits in most of their Big 10 games. But 8.5 points is a large margin of victory to score against a team that tends to score 90 points each game. Add into the fact that Alabama is also playing better defense in the tournament, and I am going to go with the Crimson Tide. I know I should use the same logic that I am doing with Duke. But I don't want any of the games to be blowout victories - I want close games. So, I will take Alabama in a track-meet style game to keep it close.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Alabama(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Michigan 90, Alabama 77 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
I really don't like Dan Hurley - I know he is one of the best coaches in college basketball, but his antics on the sideline really bother me. Add into it that the Spartans are playing really well right now, and the Big 10 keeps winning games, and I think that the Spartans can pull the upset against the Huskies. Include the fact that you never bet against Tom Izzo in March, and everything points at picking Michigan State.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan State(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: UConn 67, Michigan State 63 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
Some might not know this, but my family has ties to Ames, Iowa. And so I always root for Iowa State when I can. But you also have to look at the numbers. While I know the transitive property doesn't completely work, over the weekend, Iowa State allowed Kentucky to get out to an early lead before destroying them by 19 points. Kentucky beat Tennessee twice this season. So, even if you make the argument that they are about the same, Iowa State still beat Kentucky by 19. Add to it that Joshua Jefferson might be ready to return from an ankle injury, and everything says you should take Iowa State to get to the Elite 8.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa State(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Tennessee 76, Iowa State 62 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
The Lunatic rooting interests apply here. I think this game could very closely resemble the game against Miami FL, and it isn't a coincidence that the line and totals from Vegas are the exact same. So, I will take the over and hope my Boilers advance to the Elite 8.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Purdue 79, Texas 77 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
This is a tough game for me to forecast. The Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers split their games over the regular season, so it should be a fantastic game as the rubber match will decide who moves to the Elite 8. At the end of the day, Nebraska was the more consistent team throughout the season and so while I wouldn't be shocked if Iowa continues to shock teams and advance, the odds say that you should take the Cornhuskers.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Nebraska(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Iowa 77, Nebraska 71 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr is just incredible. Is it more likely that Arizona wins this game - absolutely. The Wildcats have only lost 2 games all season. But Calapari has assembled an athletic team that can certainly compete against the impressive Arizona lineup. I suspect Arizona's defense slows down Arkansas a little bit, and that also helps keep the game under the 165.5 points. As for the spread, I had a lot harder time with this, but eventually, I decided that I believed that Arkansas could keep this game close that the odds were best if you picked the Razorbacks
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Arkansas(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Arizona 109, Arkansas 88 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
What happens when one of the best offenses in the country plays one of the best defenses. As a person who grew up in Chicago, I would want Illinois to win this. But there are two pieces here that I think impact me if I am going to seriously handicap the game. One - the game is in Houston. It is going to be basically a home game for the Cougars, and that can be a huge advantage in March. Second - Houston's team is the more experienced team. They have returning starters from last year's team that made it to the championship game, and that type of experience is invaluable this time of year. Sure - it is totally possible that Keaton Wagler goes crazy and scores 40 points leading the Illini to victory. But it is more likely that Kelvin Sampson has designed a defensive strategy to keep Wagler in check.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Houston(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Illinois 65, Houston 55 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
Hail! Hail! To Old Purdue! All Hail to the Old Gold and Black! The Lunatic betting rule applies here as the Lunatic will not bet against his Boilers. I actually think they could cover the 7.5, but Miami FL is a sneaky good team. Honestly, though I will simply be happy if the Boilers can win and advance to the Sweet 16!!!! Boiler Up!!!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Purdue 79, Miami FL 69 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
So, the question is do I think that Iowa State can beat Kentucky without Joshua Jefferson. This becomes a difficult question for me. I am not sold on the SEC teams (other than the top part of the league). Kentucky needed overtime to beat Santa Clara. I have to feel that would not have been necessary for the Cyclones. At the end of the day, Iowa State is still going to be the better defensive team, and is going to be a much more phyiscal team in the lane. I think we end up with a low scoring game that benefits teh Cyclones.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa State(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Iowa State 82, Kentucky 63 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
The best player on the court is Kansas's Darryn Peterson. But the Jayhawks have been uncharastically inconsistent - including only beating California Baptist by 8 in a game that never was in doubt, but wasn’t' the dominating victory that we have grown to expect from the Jayhawks. Meanwhile, Saint John's continue to ride their regular season and conference tournament championships in the Big East with a dominating 26 point victory over Northern Iowa. I think this will turn into a defensive battle, but at the end of the day, I think you have to take the more consistent team - and that would be Saint John's.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Saint John's(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Saint John's 67, Kansas 65 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
Everything feels upside down in this game. The favored seed is a 1.5 point underdog. Virginia is playing in a game where they are ranked as the better offensive team and the worse defensive team. When you have associated Virginia basketball with hard nosed defense, it is hard to figure out any of these numbers. But Tennessee's defense is that good. So, I struggled with what to pick here. If I just based off Friday, watching Virginia play a close game against Wright State while watch Tennessee destroy Miami (OH), you would have to pick the Volunteers. If you look at it from the regular season, you have a team that spent most of the season in the top 15 teams and you don't have to give up any points. That leads to taking Virginia. The teams played three similar opponents, and did very similar against them but if you get picky, Tennessee did better against the best team (Louisville) and Virginia did better against the other two (Texas and Syracuse). Add in it that the Lunatic wants to support the local schools and he will take Virginia in a well played game that I think will still get over 137.5 points (both team are excellent defensively, but both teams still had 70% of their games over 137 points).
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Virginia(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Tennessee 79, Virginia 72 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
I made this mistake before. I looked at the Duke / TCU game, and thought TCU keeps games close, they might not win, but Duke won't win by double digits. Then Duke went on a 30-10 run. Sure, Iowa has played some great teams like Michigan, Iowa State, Illinois and Purdue close. They also lost to a few those teams by double digits. Meanwhile, here is a list of the teams Florida beat by double digits in the regular season (Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Miami, Georgia (twice), Texas and Texas A&M). Florida won by double digits in 60% of their games, which is incredible when you realize they played 18 teams that got at-large bids to the tournament (and they also played some good teams like Auburn and Oklahoma that just missed the cut). If Iowa can slow the game down and keep the game close, they certainly could rattle the Gators. But the odds say that Florida jumps out quickly and runs away.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Florida(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Iowa 73, Florida 72 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
I was really impressed by how Utah State drove to the basket against Villanova. They did most of their scoring by Mason Falslev and MJ Collins Jr driving to the basket and Villanova simply couldn't stop them. The problem is this time, they are going to have to beat Jaden Bradley and Braydon Burries off the dribble, and then they will still have Arizona's three big men waiting for them. Arizona had the third best defense in the country behind Duke and Michigan, and they did that against the tough teams of the Big 12. I think Utah State is going to find it harder to initiate their offense against the Wildcats, and that will also slow the game down to not cover the 154.5 points. Take Arizona and their defense.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Arizona(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Arizona 78, Utah State 66 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
I think the over seems to be a gift - I expect the winner of this game should get to 72 points and since it will be a close game, that should cover the over. As for the result, I can't believe that I am going to say this, but my handicapping is already pretty bad and so I might as well go with conference affiliations. UCLA has been playing some of their best basketball of the season, and that includes even after they lost star forward Tyler Bilodeau to a knee injury. He is questionable, but I suspect he still won't be able to play. UConn has their own injuries to deal with as guard Silas Demary Jr and forward Jaylin Stewart have both been out. The report is both might be able to play today, but obviously coming back from injury can be tough and unpredictable. If Demary can not go, UCLA's Donovan Dent will be tough for the Huskies to stop. Since I really dislike UConn coach Dan Hurley, I am going to go rogue and pick UCLA. Although with honestly, UCLA's coach Mick Cronin isn't much better from yelling at the refs - I wouldn't be surprised if there is at least one technical called on the benches of this game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: UCLA(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: UConn 73, UCLA 57 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
Texas Tech certainly is not at full strength without JT Toppin, but people have stepped up and Christian Anderson is still an outstanding player who can take over a game. Alabama did fine in their first game without Aden Holloway, but that was against Hofstra. The Red Raiders are more known for their offense (10th in KenPom) vs their defense (33rd), but I think that Alabama will miss having their top three-point shooting threat. That being said, the matchup between Anderson and Crimson Tide's Labaron Philon Jr is going to be truly fun to watch. If Philon Jr takes over the game (which he certainly is capable of), Alabama can beat anyone in the country. But Alabama's style of play leads to very inconsistent results (it just takes one off-shooting night), so I think if you are taking the odds, you have to go with the more consistent Texas Tech Red Raiders. I am going to go with the under since 165.5 points is a lot of points to score, and I suspect Texas Tech will slow down Alabama's outside threats just enough to keep this game under.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas Tech(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Alabama 90, Texas Tech 65 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
Note - we are so far behind, it is time to start betting $30 on everything in order to try to catch up. Hopefully, this will also remove the lock curse that appears to be happening. I might regret this, but I picked Georgia because St. Louis struggled at the end of the season, and then the Billikens looked like world beaters. But I can't see the drives that were so successful against Georgia having the same efficiency against the tough physical Michigan defense. I expect the scores for both teams slow down a little, but Michigan eventually runs away with this.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Michigan 95, Saint Louis 72 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
It is rare when you see tournament teams have this many similar opponents. The Spartans and Cardinals both played Arkansas, Duke, Indiana, Kentucky, and UNC. In all 5 cases, Michigan State had the better results. Also, over the years, I have come to realize that you never bet against Tom Izzo in March. The Spartans always tend to do well this time of year.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan State(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Michigan State 77, Louisville 69 Spread: $27 Totals: $27
You might think that I am over-reacting to Duke's close game to Siena, but it is actually numbers that I am reacting to. TCU only lost by double-digits three times this year - Arizona (13), Colorado (26), and UCF (11). That becomes a lot more impressive when you realize their schedule included Michigan (L4), Florida (W 4), Houston (L 9), Iowa St (W 7), Kansas twice (L by 4 and 5), Texas Tech (W 8), BYU (L 6) and Wisconsin (W 11). Duke also has played close games more often than you would think. They always seem to find ways to win the game, but it is not always by double digits. So, I am in the dangerous position where I think Duke will win, but not cover the spread. So, I am going to take a chance with TCU in this one.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: TCU(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Duke 81, TCU 58 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
I really struggled with this game. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country. But Texas A&M plays at a fast pace where their lowest total of the season was 144. I think Houston has the talent to get to the Final 4, but do I think that they will beat Texas A&M by double digits. Ignoring Thursday's games - against tournament level teams, Houston only has beaten 3 of the 13 games by double digits (despite winning 7 of them). Meanwhile, in A&M's 12 games, they have kept it within double digits in 7 of their 12 games. So, Texas A&M has lost a few times by double digits, but they have more likely kept the game close. I suspect the safer pick is to expect that the game stays close, so I will take Texas A&M with the 10.5 points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas A&M(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Houston 88, Texas A&M 57 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
There are a couple things that are going through my head here. First of all, Gonzaga only beat Kennesaw State by 9 - while Gonzaga does play a tough non-conference schedule and Santa Clara and St. Mary's are excellent teams, they have not played a team like Texas since December. But as inconsistent as the SEC has been this tournament, there is this reality. Texas A&M from the SEC ended St. Mary's season and Kentucky from the SEC ended Santa Clara's season. The SEC has been kryptonite to the WCC the last couple of days. Finally, you have the luck of the First 4 - a team that barely gets into the tournament and rewards the Selection Committtee's decision by making a run to Sweet 16. It feels dangerous with the line only being 6.5, but everything from superstitions to recent games is telling me to take Texas in an upset.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Texas 74, Gonzaga 68 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
This game I am going with my heart more than the statistics. Illinois is such a good offensive team that I suspect this game will be a high scoring game. If the Illinois team that scored 105 against Penn shows up, they will run away with this game because the Rams don't have that type of firepower. But I do believe that you don't bet against the team you want to see wni - and I would love to see the Rams continue their Cinderella run. And after their comeback against UNC, the Rams have to be playing with a lot of confidence. So, if I am betting with my heart and going to get 11.5 points, I will take VCU.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: VCU(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Illinois 76, VCU 55 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
This should be one of the best games of the weekend. Vanderbilt captured everyone's attention by beating Florida in the SEC Tournament. Meanwhile, Nebraska quietly kept winning games in the competitive Big 10 in the shadows of the Wolverines destroying everyone, so it is easy to forget that the Cornhuskers only lost 6 games this season (and 4 of those 6 losses came to teams seeded in the top 3 teams). At the end of the day, I am going to go with my bias towards the Big 10 - I always want to see the conference do well. Not to mention, Nebraska is the better defensive team and if you are choosing in a game that is going to go down to the wire according to Vegas, I think I would prefer to pick the team that is most likely to get a defensive stop.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Nebraska(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Nebraska 74, Vanderbilt 72 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
I was surprised at how physical that High Point played against Wisconsin. They wanted the ball more and tended to win the lose balls. They were able to attack the basket as well as shoot from 3. But I have to wonder what happens if they go against an athletic team that matches their intensity. The Razorbacks shoot a little bit better than the Badgers and get more rebounds than Wisconsin. While they are a very similar team to Wisconsin, I also remember this truth. High Point played no power conference teams all season. So, their victory over Wisconsin was a very cool surprise. High Point won't be catching Arkansas by surprise - they saw High Point outhustle the Badgers to the ball and score more effectively than one would expect. Sadly, Cinderella's bid tends to end in thsi round when their opponent realizes that they need to take them much more seriously. So, I am going to take Arkansas.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Arkansas(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Arkansas 94, High Point 88 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
We had a similar matchup to this on Thursday - a middle of the road SEC team in Texas A&M against a WCC team in St. Mary's. And Texas A&M won by 13. I think Kentucky feels like they have something to prove with some of the feedback they have gotten this season, and so that might not bode well for Santa Clara. I am going to lock the Wildcats on this one. I will also take the under as I don't expect Santa Clara to speed the game up enough to get the total to 157.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Kentucky(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Kentucky 89, Santa Clara 84 Spread: $27 Totals: $-20
This game really scares me a little bit. When I look at the basic statistics, it screams take Texas Tech. But the couple of comparison points of similar games (such as Purdue and Milwaukee) lean towards Akron. And Texas Tech comes into this game injured. But here is my problem. Akron is 0-5 against teams in the NET Top 125. Even without JT Toppin, Texas Tech is a top 125 team, so as much as I want to support the mid-major team, I think the right pick is Texas Tech in a defensive battle.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas Tech(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Texas Tech 91, Akron 71 Spread: $9 Totals: $-20
I don't like 30 point lines - but I also think LIU has a problem here. Arizona watched Duke almost lose to Siena - and so I suspect a lot of the favorites are not going to overlook their opponents on Friday after that almost upset. I expect Arizona to jump out to an early lead and run away - scoring lots of points in the process. I am going to go a little more with the over - because I expect Arizona will score close to 90 pts, but if I am wrong and this is close, LIU will be scoring close to 70 and the teams will still cover the over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Arizona(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Arizona 92, Long Island 58 Spread: $9 Totals: $-20
Virginia has beaten all the mid-major teams that it has played by 19 or more points with the exception of Dayton (which they beat by 13). And Dayton is certainly better than Wright State. I wouldn't lock it simply because 18.5 points is a lot, and while I think the over is the right play, I am a little nervous that Virginia's defense could completely shut down Wright St (similar to what happened with Nebraska and Troy)
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Virginia(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Virginia 82, Wright State 73 Spread: $-20 Totals: $9
I would totally stay away from this game. Tennessee State played one top team (Tennessee) which they lost by 29. Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country, so I could easily see this tunring into a rout. But the spread is a lot to cover, and there is a chance if Iowa State gets hot against Tennessee State that their score could push the over/under. So, I will take Iowa State and the under as complete guesses.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa State(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Iowa State 108, Tennessee State 74 Spread: $9 Totals: $-10
So, I noticed that while the teams that Hofstra played certainly were not as good as Alabama, they were also competitive - losing by 4 to UCF, beating Syracuse and Pitt. Add into it that Alabama is missing their 2nd leading scorer, and I think Hofstra will at least keep this close. This game is going to be a battle of styles, and so while I believe Hofstra will try to slow this game to a crawl, they might not have a choice against Alabama's style of play. Certainly not going to lock either Hofstra or the under - but I do feel good about those picks.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Hofstra(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Alabama 90, Hofstra 70 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
One trend over the last few tournaments is that the Mountain West teams for some reason have really struggled. The metrics say that I should take Utah State, but everything I know about the Mountain West says that you can take Utah State and get 1.5 points as well. I will lock teams against the Mountain West until one of them proves me wrong. Utah State is certainly good enough to do that, but they have to prove it before I stop picking against it.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Villanova(30) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Utah State 86, Villanova 76 Spread: $-30 Totals: $18
Tennessee is a really good defensive team. They might be able to stop Miami (OH) or at least score with them. But I have a few reasons that I believe Miami OH is the pick. Tennessee doesn't need to just win - they have to win by 12. The other part is Miami OH's style of play is tough to stop. They are going to shoot a ton of three pointers, and some of them will be immediately in the shot clock. They will push the tempo and be comfortable if they don't score a couple times because eventually they are going to string 2 or 3 three-pointers together. So, I would go with Miami and the over. If Miami wins, they will do it by scoring a lot of points. And if Tennessee wins, it is more likely because they score a lot of points with Miami.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Miami OH(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Tennessee 78, Miami OH 56 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-30
Both Iowa and Clemson covered the over if the line was 128.5 in more than 82% of their games - that screams take the over. As for the line, that is more of a guess. I think that Iowa has had to play some tougher opponents, so while I think both teams are pretty good, I am going to give the edge to the Hawkeyes
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa(10) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Iowa 67, Clemson 61 Spread: $9 Totals: $-30
I really did think that Northern Iowa could possibly upset someone in the tournament. And then, the committee put them up against St. John's - a team I believe should have been a 3 seed instead of a 5 seed. I suspect that St. John's is going to come out and run away with this game to prove they were mis-seeded. The line is high enough that it is more of a guess than a confident pick. And Northern Iowa plays with a very deliberate pace. But since I believe that St. John's will win and they cover the over if the line was 131.5 in 85% of their games, my guess will also take the over reluctantly.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Saint John's(10) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Saint John's 79, Northern Iowa 53 Spread: $9 Totals: $9
I originally felt UCLA was the better team, especially watching how UCLA did after injuries took out Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent. When I picked my brackets, I figured the injuries would be too much to overcome. But the report that I am reading today says both stars should be ready to play on Friday. If they play, I think UCLA covers the spread. If they don't I would take UCF. Since I have to make the pick now, based on the information I have, I need to guess that UCLA wins. But with the injury concerns, I have no confidence in that pick.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: UCLA(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: UCLA 75, UCF 71 Spread: $-10 Totals: $9
By feeling in handicapping is the same as with picking my bracket. Try not to pick against an outcome you desperately want to see happen. So, any time I run across a Purdue game, I bet the lowest amount on my Boilers. I would simply rather know I picked supporting my team. As for the over/under, I originally thought 162.5 was too much until I saw the points Queens played againist other power conference teams (Virginia - 163, Arkansas - 188, Villanova - 168, Auburn - 171, Wake Forest - 184). So I will take the over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Purdue 104, Queens 71 Spread: $9 Totals: $18
Prairie View actually looked much better than their NET ranking suggested on Tuesday. But the real reason that I am taking them is the following. Prairie View played LSU, Missouri and Texas A&M in the regular season and kept the first two games to under 20 and lost to the Aggies by 29. So, they have shown they can play a power conference team and not lose by 35.5 points. Florida certainly could blow them out, but 35.5 is a lot for a tournament game. Add into it that Florida might rest their starters if they get that far ahead, and I think you have to take the points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Prairie View(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Florida 114, Prairie View 55 Spread: $-20 Totals: $18
California Baptist lost to BYU by 31 points, but then only lost by single digits to Colorado and Utah. Of course, the Jayhawks are better than all of those teams. I am going to guess this game is closer to the result of the BYU game then the other two games. That suggests the total will be closer to 150 and the Jayhawks will win big.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Kansas(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Kansas 68, California Baptist 60 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
Both teams are fairly efficient, and tend to score more than 136.5 points. If the game goes the way I expect, the Huskies cover the over mainly by themselves. But if ti doesn't, that means Furman is scoring as well - which also leads to the over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: UConn(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: UConn 82, Furman 71 Spread: $-20 Totals: $27
It probably doesn't help that I just watched Georgia get blown out of the gym by St. Louis. They played four similar opponents. Miami did better against Bethune, Notre Dame and Ole Miss - but Missouri did do better against Florida (as they gave the Gators one of their few losses). So, Miami looks better according to the numbers, they only have to cover 1.5 points based on the spread, and I just watched another SEC team get torched. That all leads to taking Miami.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Miami FL(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Miami FL 80, Missouri 66 Spread: $18 Totals: $-10
Makes sense that the 8/9 game was tough for me to pick. Being a Big 10 guy, I really want to pick Ohio State. But I also know that the Buckeyes can be very streaky. In games against similar opponents, TCU went 2-2 and OSU went 3-4. All the TCU losses were close (including a 4 pt loss to Michigan), Meanwhile, OSU had more big wins and big losses. After watching some of the defensive teams play in the First Four, I am going to side with the better defensive team, which from the numbers looks like TCU. Basically, with it being a coin flip, I will take the points - but it is purely a guess.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: TCU(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: TCU 66, Ohio State 64 Spread: $9 Totals: $9
I have gotten to watch some of the Sun Belt teams, and so I know that Troy is a sneaky good 13 seed. But I also have watched Nebraska, and they are simply a better team. The question is simply whether they cover the 12.5 points. In the two similar games they played, the margin difference was 15 (USC) and 37 (West Georgia). But I think the fact that made me take Nebraska is 8-3 covering 12.5 pts against teams with a NET > 100 (Troy is 125).
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Nebraska(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Nebraska 76, Troy 47 Spread: $18 Totals: $-20
This is all based on the fact that Louisville will be missing Mikel Brown Jr with a back injury. My prediction was right with the Vegas line of about 5 points, but the model is assuming that Brown is on the court. Without him, I suspect that Louisville will struggle to score to start. And so even through the pace might be fast, Louisville won't be efficient enough to get this game to 163 points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: South Florida(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Louisville 83, South Florida 79 Spread: $18 Totals: $9
Both teams are very efficient offensively. The concern that I have is that High Point has done it without playing a team ranked in the NET Top 100. Every mid-major team Wisconsin has played, they have beaten by more than 20 points. High Point is better than all those teams, but I am not convinced they are so much better that the Badgers won't cover. Also, while Wisconsin gives up a lot of points, I think some of that is based on some of the Big 10 teams they have had to play. I just think it might be hard for both teams to score over 80 points in this game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Wisconsin(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: High Point 83, Wisconsin 82 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-10
I never like to put much on the 1/16 games. These are the lines that Vegas makes to try to scare you from betting on it - and they might have won. Duke went 5-1 against the teams with a NET > 180. I can't see Siena changing that against the Blue Devils. I am going to lock the over for the following reason. I suspect Duke will score more than 85 points in this game. That means that Siena likely only needs to cross 50 - I think they can do that.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Duke 71, Siena 65 Spread: $-20 Totals: $27
I am going to take a chance on this. Normally the 5/12 matchup is scary and dangerous. But my two comparison points are the following. McNeese lost by 12 to Santa Clara (and I think Vandy is better). Vanderbilt beat VCU by 15 (and I think VCU is better than McNeese). So, I am going to go crazy here and lock this game. Vanderbilt is going to score a lot of points, and while McNeese will run with them for a while to help cover the over, the Commodores will win by double digits.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Vanderbilt(30) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Vanderbilt 78, McNeese 68 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-20
This one has me very nervous. Michigan State has played 7 mid-majors with NET > 100, and they went 5-2 against the spread. North Dakota St hasn't played anyone in the top 100, so I have no good way to determine how they might do. I suspect that with Michigan State being a very good defensive team and North Dakota State being an average offensive game, this becomes a low scoring battle that the Spartans take - but that is truly guessing (16.5 points is almost at the level of too many points to cover in this style of game).
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan State(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Michigan State 92, North Dakota State 67 Spread: $9 Totals: $-20
I don't have a lot of games to measure this on (as with a lot of these high point spread games). But Hawaii did play 2 power conference teams and held their own (losing by 7 to Arizona State and 1 to Oregon). Arkansas is certainly better than both those teams and should win this game - but I don't think that Hawaii will be intimidated by the Razorbacks - I am going to bet that Hawaii can at least keep it close.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Hawaii(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Arkansas 97, Hawaii 78 Spread: $-20 Totals: $18
This matchup made me very sad, because I like rooting for both these teams. Since I am not seeing a ton of chances for the mid-majors to win, this is one that I believe you have to take. VCU is certainly not going to be intimifated. They beat Virginia Tech by 18 and only lost to NC State by 6. So I certainly can see the Rams pulling the upset. I am going to go with a defensive battle since UNC is missing their point guard, ending with the Rams advancing to the next round.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: VCU(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: VCU 82, North Carolina 78 Spread: $9 Totals: $-10
This is another game I would simply stay away from. The line is 31.5. The teams played two like opponents. Howard lost by 37 to a Duke team that beat the Wolverines by 5. And Michigan beat a Northwestern team by 12 that Howard lost by 20. So, the margin of those two are both 32 - which is exactly where the line is. When Howard played Duke, they scored 149 (and the over / under is 151.5). The line of this game almost exactly mirrors the result from the Howard / Duke game, so I would simply stay away from this one.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Howard(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Michigan 101, Howard 80 Spread: $9 Totals: $-10
Usually, a team comes out of Dayton and rides the momentum of their win to another win. But I just don't feel comfortable taking Texas. While they nailed the shots when it mattered down the stretch, they still seemed to be struggling to score like they did earlier in the sesaon. I think they are going to continue to struggle against BYU, who is better defensively that most people realize. And BYU will have the best player on the court - so with the line only benig 2.5 points, you have to lock the Cougars.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: BYU(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Texas 79, BYU 71 Spread: $-30 Totals: $18
I have just been burned too many times by St. Mary's - I get all excited to take them as one of the mid-majors who will topple a power conference team only to watch them lose. I think the SEC is better than people realize, and that Texas A&M should come out strong in this game. I am going with the 10 seed over the 7 seed in a high scoring affair (well at least high enough to cover the over).
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas A&M(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Texas A&M 63, Saint Mary's 50 Spread: $18 Totals: $-10
Ivy league teams have pulled off some of the best upsets in tournament history. They also tend to hold the games to closer than people expect. 25.5 points is a lot to cover against a team that only lost to Rutgers by 1 (although they also did lose to Villanova by 27). I certainly don't expect Illinois to lose to Penn, but I don't expect them to win by 26 points either.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Penn(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Illinois 105, Penn 70 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
St. Louis really struggled down the stretch of the season. Also, the one power conference team they did play, they lost by 1 point to Stanford. Georgia is certainly not a perfect team, but the SEC teams tend to play pretty well in the tournament, so I am going to lock Georgia here - I think they cover the 2.5 points and it becomes enough of a defensive battle to not get close to the 169.5 line.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Georgia(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Saint Louis 102, Georgia 77 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
This spread is not one I feel comfortable with. Kennesaw State is better than people realize. Gonzaga is certainly the better team, and might win this by 20+ points, but I believe that is a 50/50 chance. So, I am going to root for Kennesaw State to at least keep it close in a fun high scoring game that Gonzaga tends to like to play.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Kennesaw State(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Gonzaga 73, Kennesaw State 64 Spread: $9 Totals: $-20
I am just going to completely stay away from this game. Do I think Houston wins by a lot - yes. Do I think they cover 23.5 points - flip a coin. I think this game is going to play slowly and become a defensive battle. If that happens, they score under the 138.5 points, and it then becomes increasingly hard to cover by 23.5 points in a low scoring affair. But taking Idaho and the under is purely a guess - I would really just stay away from this game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Idaho(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Houston 78, Idaho 47 Spread: $9 Totals: $9
I really don't know much at all about Lehigh or Prairie View. The teams in the Patriot league are probably slightly better than the SWAC, and according to my metrics, Lehigh did better against tougher competition than Prairie View did. They also finished 2nd in the Patriot vs. finishing in 8th in the SWAC. But after watching the so called favorites lose last night, I am not very confident in the games. I will take Lehigh and the under, with the assumption that the teams will struggle to shoot to start with the pressure of the tournament.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Lehigh(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Prairie View 67, Lehigh 55 Spread: $-10 Totals: $18
If BJ Edwards was truly healthy, I would probably take the Mustangs - I watched some of their games in January and they were a really good team - certainly better than anyone Miami OH faced this year. But even if Edwards plays, he will have to be rusty as he recovered from the injury that kept him out of the last 6 games of the season. What I do know is there likely will not be a lot of defense in this game, and both teams will want to turn this game into a track meet. I can't see the team that went 31-1 who has desperately wanted to prove themselves against the media that said they don't belong losing by 7 points. Or maybe that is I hope that won't happen. I am going to nervously take Miami to cover, and despite 163.5 being a lot of points, I am going to confidently take the over (we just won't lock it since as I said, 163.5 is a lot of points).
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Miami OH(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Miami OH 89, SMU 79 Spread: $9 Totals: $18
I don’t know a lot about these teams, but I did see a little of the America East championship where UMBC beat Vermont, and they looked pretty decent. Also, the statistics say UMBC is slightly better (which makes sense why Vegas has them as a 1.5 point favorite). It is hard to only win a game by a point (it happens, but normally a free throw happens to pad a lead). So, while it is a guess, I would go with UMBC for $10 to cover. As for the spread, the teams average closer to 144 pts per game, so I think we are getting good odds with the over – I will take the over for $20.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: UMBC(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Howard 86, UMBC 83 Spread: $-10 Totals: $18
This is one of those rare games where you have a reasonable data point from the regular season. These two teams met in Maui in November and played a fast-paced game where the Longhorns won 102-97. Both teams come into the tournament struggling as they both have lost 5 of their last 6 games. But the one thing that doesn’t seem to change for either team is that they score a lot of points. I think you have to lock the over considering they scored 199 points last time. I feel like Texas should repeat what they did in Maui but realizing that we are talking about two teams that struggled down the stretch, I am not going to lock the outcome like I will the points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Texas 68, NC State 66 Spread: $18 Totals: $-30
