The Sooners made sure that their was no magical comeback this time, and the Oklahoma Sooners joined Villanova as two seeds that just destroyed their 3 seed opponents to get to the Elite 8.   It is a little surprising – I really expected both of these to be really close games, but Villanova and Oklahoma were just way too good.

Congratulations to the Sooners for their dominating win tonight to make it to the Elite 8!

Congratulations to Villanova, who barring a crazy miracle, have just destroyed the Miami Hurricanes to earn their place in the Elite 8.  They definitely proved me wrong – I had made a statement that they had not beaten anyone outside of Iowa and the Big East.   Well, I am not sure that statement isn’t completely true – because beaten might not be enough of an adjective of what the Wildcats have done tonight.  They ran the Hurricanes out of the arena – every time Miami pressed to try to get back in this game, Villanova just broke the press as if no one was on the court and added to their lead.   I will wait for the buzzer to mark it – since Texas A&M reminded me that miracles happen.

Speaking of which, it looks like the Aggies have the Sooners right where they want them.  The comeback kids are down 18 to Oklahoma – so we will see if the Aggies have another miracle left in their bag.

OK – it is now official – Villanova has won by 23.   Congratulations Wildcats!!!!

Also – that means if you haven’t already – make sure you put in your second chance picks.   Consider this your friendly reminder!!!!

Enjoy the games tonight – should be some really good basketball.

Ten reasons to do the Stomp the Lunatic Second Chance Pool

• You no longer have a Final Four team left in your real bracket after your creative upset picks of taking a 2, 3, 4 and 5 seed was ripped to shreds as Michigan State, West Virginia, California and Baylor all crashed in the first round
• You want another chance to say that you had a perfect bracket after Yale and Little Rock took out Baylor and Purdue before the first 8 games were over.
• Now that your school has been eliminated from the tournament, you can pick teams intelligently and really show off you basketball knowledge instead of blindly picking Purdue – whoops, I mean your school’s team.
• Your son who chose based on whoever was the better seed and your daughter who picked schools which are purple and by randomly touching teams on the touch screen are both beating you in the pool and you want another chance to redeem yourself
• Because after watching Texas A&M comeback from 12 points in less than a minute, you now know they are destined to win the tournament.
• You have decided that all the teams you pick are jinxed, and since there are still schools out there that you don’t like, you want to use your power for good and eliminate the Hoosiers and Fighting Irish – sorry, where did that come from – I mean eliminate the teams that you don’t like.
• You want to be able to say that you legitimately picked in a bracket for a mid-major champion to make the Final Four, and with Gonzaga two games away, it even looks like it might be realistically possible.
• You want to be able to pick an all ACC bracket (Miami FL, Duke, UNC and Virginia) and then scream at your television the remainder of the tournament as Kansas starts knocking them off one by one.
• It is another – and more importantly, last chance in 2015 to STOMP THE LUNATIC!
• It’s absolutely FREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That’s right – your entry fee already covers your Second Chance Pool entry – and so there is absolutely no good reason not to do the Second Chance Pool. You even have all Thursday afternoon to do them, since the games don’t start until 7:15 pm. Good luck to all of you!!

– The Crazed Lunatic

That’s right – it is time to bring to you expert advice on the Sweet 16 in the way that only the Lunatic can – by polling the amazing basketball knowledge of the Lunatic Expert Panel.

South Semi-Final 1 – #2 Villanova vs #3 Miami FL

• Crazed Lunatic – Miami FL – I was really impressed with how the Hurricanes beat Wichita State.   I suspect that guard Angel Rodriguez will take over this game like he did against the Shockers 
• Mrs. Lunatic – Villanova – I have a rule to never pick a team from Florida
• Charlie – Villanova – they have the best record and are the favorites according to Vegas and seeds
• Katie – Villanova – they are purple

West Semi-Final 1 – #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Texas A&M

• Crazed Lunatic – Texas A&M – this game is a coin flip for me.  I even hedged in my second chance picks with the Sooners.  But I have been so successful with my crazy picks – which had the Aggies to the Elite 8.  Not to mention they feel like a team of destiny after that stunning comeback against Northern Iowa.  Believe!!!!
• Mrs. Lunatic – Texas A&M – she says Hook ’em Horns – oh wait a second, wrong school.   Doesn’t matter – Go Texas A&M
• Charlie – Texas A&M – the Aggies won one more game then Oklahoma – and Daddy says I should pick a few upsets
• Katie – Texas A&M – Oklahoma – no not Oklahoma – do I really have to do this.  I would like my popsicle and to go back to watching Henry Danger.

South Semi-Final 2 – #1 Kansas vs #5 Maryland

• Crazed Lunatic – Kansas – after watching Maryland play in the Big 10 and seeing them go on slumps where their stars have off shooting nights, it is safer to take the very dominant Jayhawks.
• Mrs. Lunatic – Kansas – a girl can only buck the system so much – have to pick a favorite eventually
• Charlie – Kansas – #1 team going into the tournament
• Katie – Maryland – my friend just moved to Maryland – and their mascot is a turtle.  Fear the Turtle!

West Semi-Final 2 – #1 Oregon vs #4 Duke

• Crazed Lunatic – Duke – the Blue Devils can’t seem to stop anyone, but they seem to outscore them at the end.  I think Duke’s tournament experience and hall of fame coach will be the difference in what should be a great game.
• Mrs. Lunatic – Duke – always pick teams from North Carolina if I can
• Charlie – Oregon – they had more wins than the Blue Devils – that must be why they were a #1 seed
• Katie – Duke – Grandpa did his post doc at Duke – so while they aren’t as good as the Tar Heels, they have to be able to beat a Duck – Devils also sound scary

Midwest Semi-Final 1 – #1 Virginia vs #4 Iowa State

• Crazed Lunatic – Virginia – this is the Cavalier’s region with their nemesis from Michigan leaving the tournament.  Add to it the ACC has been dominant, and you have to go with one of the ACC’s best
• Mrs. Lunatic – Virginia – while not normally a UVA fan, have to root for the home team
• Charlie – Virginia – always take the #1 seed
• Katie – Virginia – I live in Virginia!!!!

East Semi-Final 1 – #6 Notre Dame vs #7 Wisconsin

• Crazed Lunatic – Wisconsin – my biases might be getting the best of me.  But I think that Wisconsin is the better defensive team, and that seems to give them a chance to win no matter who they play
• Mrs. Lunatic – Wisconsin – Never Notre Dame – Never for anything – Just Never
• Charlie – Wisconsin – Daddy shamed me into picking an upset – not to mention as a Purdue fan, I can’t root for the Irish.
• Katie – Notre Dame – their mascot is a Leprauchan – that has to be lucky, right!!!   I love Leprauchan Day – they make the potty water green!

South Semi-Final 2 – #1 North Carolina vs #5 Indiana

• Crazed Lunatic – North Carolina – The Tar Heels have too much talent here – Brice Johnson is too dominant inside, and Marcus Paige and Joel Berry are talented enough guards to at least slow Yogi Ferrell down.  Plus the obvious fact that as a Boilermaker, I can’t take the Hoosiers
• Mrs. Lunatic – North Carolina – a Chapel Hill born girl has to go with the Tar Heels.
• Charlie – North Carolina – many say you should always take the pre-season #1 team
• Katie – North Carolina – Nanny and Grandpa taught me the fight song – want to hear it!!!

East Semi-Final 2 – #10 Syracuse vs #11 Gonzaga

• Crazed Lunatic – Gonzaga – everyone knows my feelings about Syracuse, but I have been impressed with how they have gotten to the Sweet 16.  But this has been such a good tournament of the mid-majors, and it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Zags are left holding the mid-major banner.   I expect Kyle Wiltjer and Eric McClellan to beat the Orange’s amazing zone defense.
• Mrs. Lunatic – Gonzaga – go Zags!!!  Not to mention Tom’s dislike for Syracuse has rubbed off on me
• Charlie – Gonzaga – Vegas has them as the favorite and they won their conference’s championship
• Katie – Gonzaga – I will pick the team Mommy wants – she has the remote control

That’s right – expert opinions that you can only get here at the Stomp the Lunatic Blog.  Special thanks to my wife – who not only helped me with writing this, but once again must love me by putting up with this insanity each year.

Hope everyone enjoys the games – and don’t forget to do your second chance picks.

 

 

You have heard me complain countless number of times about the committee.  There are plenty of places where you can look at the seeds and totally get that they are off.   But one of the things that frustrated me is that it felt that many of the teams that played won Sunday did not get a fair assessment which included their championship game.

I could give tons of reasons why Kentucky belonged ahead of Texas A&M – when you have two teams that are co-champs, they both finish with the same record, they both were able to beat some good teams out of conference, and they both play in the conference championship, the team that wins that game should get ranked better.  I am sure some arguments can be made.  Before Sunday’s game, I had Texas A&M slightly ahead.  But after Kentucky won on a neutral court, I felt you have to move them up.

And everyone knows that I think Michigan State and Purdue were unfairly treated – but I am biased towards the Big 10 and it doesn’t help that both of them lost their games, so I will leave them out.

But there was one other team that was punished for what appears to be simply playing on Sunday afternoon.   One mid-major conference played their conference championship on Sunday – the Southland conference.  And the team that won that game was Stephen F Austin, who finished the season with a victory over Texas A&M – Corpus Christi to go 27-5.  The Lumberjacks were rewarded with a 14 seed.   And so I thought it would be interesting to look at how the statistical ratings like KenPom, Sagarin, ESPN BPI, and Adjusted Scoring Margin would rank the teams compared to the rankings.

Team	Committee	RPI	Pomeroy	BPI	Sagarin	ASM
Chattanooga	1	5	10	7	10	9
Ark – Little Rock	2	2	3	2	4	5
Yale	3	3	2	1	1	2
South Dakota St	4	1	7	6	5	6
UNC Wilmington	5	4	6	4	6	7
Hawaii	6	11	4	3	3	3
Stony Brook	7	6	8	8	7	4
Iona	8	9	5	9	8	8
Green Bay	9	14	13	13	13	16
Buffalo	10	12	16	14	16	15
Fresno St	11	8	11	10	9	14
Stephen F Austin	12	7	1	5	2	1
Middle Tennessee	13	10	14	16	12	11
CSU Bakersfield	14	15	9	12	11	10
UNC Asheville	15	16	12	11	15	12
Weber St	16	13	15	15	14	13
Austin Peay	17	19	18	19	18	20
Hampton	18	17	20	20	19	19
Florida Gulf Coast	19	21	17	17	17	17
Fairleigh Dickinson	20	20	21	21	21	21
Southern	21	18	19	18	20	18
Holy Cross	22	22	22	22	22	22

You will notice that in all of the statistical ratings, 4 of the top 5 teams in each of those rankings were Yale, Little Rock, Hawaii and Stephen F Austin – 4 of the 5 teams that pulled upsets from the mid-major conference champions.    That’s right, both Pomeroy and Sagarin would have had the 4 12 seeds as the 4 teams that pulled upsets, and BPI would have only missed on UNC-Wilmington, the team that was beating Duke at halftime.  Adjusted Scoring Margin sometimes is off because of who teams play – but even it would have ranked those 4 teams as the top 5, switching out Little Rock for Stony Brook.

So, how could Stephen F Austin, who was either the best or second best mid-major according to two of the more respected computer rankings of college basketball, be ranked as a 14 seed instead of a 12 seed (and not just a 14 seed – the worst ranked 14 seed).

Their RPI was a little higher than the 12 seeds, but if RPI matters that much, why weren’t teams like Valparaiso, St. Mary’s and St. Bonaventure in the tournament over teams that were 30 RPI rankings below them.  By the way, Valparaiso just beat St. Mary’s tonight to make it to Madison Square Garden and the NIT semi-finals – where their run included all double-digit victories including one against the ACC’s Florida State.   Now, I admit that the Seminoles aren’t Duke or Miami – but if Valparaiso could beat FSU by double digits, I have to imagine they could have held their own in the tourney.

But back to the Lumberjacks, since even RPI would have given them a 13 seed.  I think the reason is the committee didn’t want to come up with multiple brackets.  And I think that if Texas A&M – Corpus Christi had upset SFA to win the Southland’s bid, their profile would have been a 14 seed.  So, my gut opinion is that they filled the bracket with a placeholder as a 14 seed for the Southland winner.  It is the most reasonable explanation to me of how the Lumberjacks could have a better record than most of the mid-majors, have better statistical rankings and still be ranked so far behind multiple teams.

And then the committee’s best 3 seed in West Virginia ended up getting this team that clearly should have been a couple seeds better.  And while the 3 seed has to win that game, regardless, it is not a coincidence that this tournament saw a record number of upsets.  I guess I should be happy – it has led to a really fun tournament.  I like seeing so many double digit seeds succeed.   But it doesn’t stop me from thinking that we might be losing some really good teams earlier than necessary in the tournament because the tournament wasn’t seeded appropriately.  OK – I will try to make that my final rant about the committee.  We have 16 incredible teams remaining – and 1 of them is going to deserve to be the NCAA National Champion – bring on the Sweet 16!!!!

It should be obvious at this point of which conferences are doing the best, but the Lunatic feels like it his duty to grade the conferences.  So, here are the conference’s report cards – which I will admit might have some unfairness because of potential mis-seedings by the committee.  But, at the end of the day, if the committee makes you a protected top 4 seed, you are the one expected to make it to the Sweet 16.

ACC – A+ (+3) – The ACC have so far been the stars of the tournament.  To be fair, the ACC was supposed to get 4 teams in the Sweet 16, but they were the only conference where all the protected seeds (UNC, Virginia, Duke and Miami) managed to accomplish what was expected.  But Notre Dame and Syracuse made it as well.  One could argue that the only game that they were not the lower seed was when Syracuse beat Dayton, but to be fair – none of the conferences have been going unscathed from upsets, so winning 12 games is impressive.

Mid-majors – A+ (+9) – I qualified this as any conference that didn’t have multiple at-large teams.  Thought briefly about separating the Missouri Valley – but it seemed unfair to count them as a major and the West Coast conference as a mid-major.  None of these teams were given a chance with the best seed being the 11 seeds awarded to Gonzaga, Wichita St and Northern Iowa.  All they did was get a Sweet 16 team in Gonzaga and have 7 others win games (Wichita St won 2 if you count the play-in along with upsets by Hawaii, Yale, Northern Iowa, Stephen F Austin, Little Rock and Middle Tennessee St).  The committee chose to not reward any of these teams with better seeds, and these teams punished the poor major conference teams that were unlucky enough to draw them.  If it wasn’t for the fact that the ACC still has 6 of their 7 teams alive in the Sweet 16, these small conference schools would have been the story of the tournament.  (Which of course, is an ironic twist – even when they do the incredible, one of the big conferences do something amazing to steal the stage).

Big 10 – B+ (+0) – The Big 10 got 3 teams to the second weekend when they were only supposed to get 1.  This is even more amazing because the one team that was supposed to make it got upset in the first round.  Maryland, Indiana and Wisconsin’s performance gets the conference one of the better grades, but they have to take a little bit of a hit thanks to Michigan State’s and Purdue’s first round losses.  I originally was going to give them an A-, but when I think that I would have had Michigan State, Purdue and Indiana all as protected seeds, I figured this result wasn’t as good as it could be.

Big East – B+ (+0) – The Big East was supposed to have 2 Sweet 16 teams, but Xavier’s last second loss made Villanova their only representative.  Still, Providence and Butler won games they were not supposed to, and the unexpected losses from Xavier and Seton Hall don’t look as bad as some of the others.

American – B (+1) – The American conference got multiple teams into the tournament, but none were supposed to win a game as the best seed they got was a 9 seed.  So, Connecticut winning their first round game makes them perform better than expected.  But it is hard for me to give any better than a B without a Sweet 16 team.

SEC – B (-1) – Both Texas A&M and Kentucky were supposed to make it, but Kentucky’s loss to Indiana in retrospect doesn’t feel worth docking them too much.   Can’t decide if the Aggies deserve extra credit for the most incredible comeback against Northern Iowa or deserve to get a lower grade because a 3 seed shouldn’t need to score 12 points in 30 seconds to beat an 11 seed….   Since I don’t believe Northern Iowa should have been an 11 seed, we’ll call it a draw.

Atlantic 10 – B- (+0) – Dayton lost when they were not supposed to, and VCU won when they were not supposed to – so it is kind of a wash.  Since St. Joseph’s also played what I would say is better than they should have with a close loss to Oregon, I will put them slightly above average.

Big 12 – B- (-5) – The Big 12 did get 3 teams into the Sweet 16.  But they were supposed to get 4.   West Virginia’s first round loss to SFA hurts the conference’s grade a little.  But what really dropped the conference grade despite Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa St winning is that Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech all were upset.  When you are supposed to have 7 teams win their first round games, and only 3 of them are successful, it can’t be looked as a large success.  Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa St may still turn this into the Big 12’s best tournament in a while – but for now, I have to bring them down a little bit for all being responsible for many upsets.

Pac 12 – D (-7) – This was supposed to be the year the Pac 12 showed how improved they were.   They were expected to get 3 teams to the Sweet 16, and along with the Big 12, they were supposed to have 7 victories in the first round.  Instead, protected seed Cal lost to Hawaii.  Colorado, Arizona, Oregon St, and USC all lost their first round games.  And Utah was upset in the second round by Gonzaga.  The only thing stopped this from be a complete F is the fact that #1 seed Oregon did make the Sweet 16, but even that looked shaky for a while.

Of course, none of this matters – it is just the ramblings of a crazy person.  All that matters who ends up winning the whole tournament – and unlike the Lunatic’s report cards which are opinion based, that will actually get played out on the court.   Good luck to all 16 teams that still have a chance to win the National Championship!!!

 

 

The Ducks have made it to the Sweet 16 – and they showed once again that no lead is safe.   The St. Joseph’s Hawks looked like they were poised to make the upset after an 8-0 run gave them a 7 point lead with just under 5 minutes to play.  But the Ducks, led by Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks, finished on a 17-6 run to send the #1 seed to Anaheim.

The finishes of the last three games are not the only crazy thing that has happened tonight.  The Lunatic went 6 for 8 today and finds himself in a very unusual spot – his 520 points in the Standard Pool and 250 points in the Upset Pool are leading both pools.  While I imagine that not being able to score any points in the South Regional might eventually come back to haunt the Lunatic – as he had misguided faith in Big 10 powers Michigan State and Purdue.  But for now, he gets to have the pride that no one is stomping the Lunatic.

There are many who are close – Kelli Shonts, Audra Lifson, Jack White and Chuck Brugh are only 20 points behind the Lunatic – and Shirli Zelcer, Nathan Standley, Doug Crowe, David Chamowitz, and Michael Swinson are just 30 points back.

And in the upset pool, John Bachmann trails by just 3 points, Doug Crowe is only 4 behind, and Rick Flynn is only 10 points behind.

That is simply getting one more game right – which is made easier when the leader is missing three of his Elite 8 teams and one of his Final 4 teams.

In the meantime, for all of us who picked Michigan State to win it all, the end of the weekend brings new life.   That is because the Second Chance Pool is ready for you to enter.   A fresh new slate is waiting for you to have another chance to win.  So, remember to login before the Sweet 16 games start on Thursday and fill out your second chance bracket!!!!!  It is another chance to win!!!!

Good luck to everyone!!!!!

The Lunatic is still stunned.   And I am heart-broken for Northern Iowa.

While the Aggies and Panthers were getting ready to head to double overtime, Wisconsin was staging their own comeback.  Down 8 with about 6 minutes to play, the Badgers slowly started to chip away at the lead.  With 13 seconds left in the game, Bronson Koenig hits a three-pointer to tie the game at 63.  With the chance to win the game, Edmond Summer for Xavier drives to the basket.   But the Badgers Zak Showalter played incredible defense and drew the offensive foul setting the stage with 4 seconds left.  Off a time-out, the Badgers get the ball to Koenig who dribbles quickly to the corner and shoots a three-pointer just before the buzzer to end the Musketeers season and send Wisconsin to the Sweet 16.

Which brings us back to the heartbreak in Oklahoma City.  In the first overtime, it looked like Wyatt Lohaus might have saved the Panthers season with a three pointer at 29 seconds to give UNI a 3 point lead.   But that comeback was easier than the one that ended regulation.  Alex Caruso drived to the basket to make it a one point lead, and after Jeremy Morgan only hits one of his FTs, Caruso drove again to tie the game and send it to a second overtime.

The second overtime belonged to the Aggies, as Danuel House managed to hit a big shot to give Texas A&M a 4 point lead with about a minute to play, and this time, it was Northern Iowa who needed the comeback.   And unfortunately for Cinderella, they just didn’t have anything left.   House – the Aggies leading scorer who was basically contained for 35 minutes, went crazy with 22 points to lead his team along with Caruso, who added 25 points, to an improbable incredible victory.

What makes it hard is that part of this was due to an injury to UNI’s senior Matt Bohannon.  Bohannon, the team’s inbounds passer, had injured his knee on a rebound late in the game, and had to watch from the bench as trainers desperately tried to treat his knee and the Aggies kept forcing turnovers off the inbounds passes from the Panthers.  He eventually returned to the game in overtime, but by that point, the damage was already done.

And so the team that had made it to the tournament by hitting a last minute basket to win the Missouri Valley Championship, and then won their first round game by hitting a shot from half court to steal the game from Texas, found themselves on the wrong side of the miracle tonight, and in this case, both of Cinderella’s slippers slipped off as the clock struck midnight.

And the Panthers and Musketeers serve as painful reminders for all the remaining teams in this crazy tournament – that has already seen a few amazing comebacks.   No lead is ever safe!!!!

OK, time to watch the last 7 minutes of the Oregon / St. Joseph’s game as the Hawks have erased a halftime lead from the Ducks and hold onto a 1 point lead.  If this game is anything like the last two, it should provide a lot of drama!

Cinderella’s slipper just got a little tighter.  A stunning result – Northern Iowa led by 12 points with 44 seconds left and looked like they were going on to the Sweet 16.   And then Texas A&M forced 4 turnovers and went on an improbable 14-2 run to send the game to overtime.   And now the Aggies have just taken a 2 point lead in overtime – the Lunatic is stunned at what is happening in Oklahoma City.