Friday has brought lots of excitement.  How about Texas A&M hitting a 3 pointer with 4 seconds left against Alabama to take a 1 point lead to then watch the Tide’s star player Collin Sexton drive down the court to hit a runner in the lane to potentially save Alabama’s season.

How about Conference USA becoming a wide-open bid stealing league as regular season champion Middle Tennessee State (with a 27 RPI) lost in overtime to Southern Miss – a team they beat twice by double digits in the regular season.

For the last few weeks, I have heard about how amazing Missouri has been to become a potential tournament team without their star one-and-done player who was injured at the start of the season.  And now that Michael Porter Jr is coming back, they might be a tough out.  Maybe the Tigers would have been better off without that star jacking up 17 shots on way to a 62-60 loss to Georgia.

Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma State all won big games yesterday to earn chances to prove they are more than a bubble team against their conference’s elite teams.  They all left today with double digit losses and big questions of if they will make the tournament.

From a local perspective here in Richmond, both Richmond and VCU won today and will get their chance to make the Atlantic 10 a bid-stealer.  The Spiders go against #2 seed St. Bonaventure while the Rams get conference regular season champ Rhode Island.

With all the bubble teams losing by double digits, I think about my bracketology and how wrong I am likely going to be – it is going to be tough to pick.  I am glad my picks are just for fun – the committee’s decisions will matter a lot, and most likely, no matter who they choose, someone is bound to be upset with what might be a legitimate argument that they belong in more.

Friday sees quarterfinals from the SEC, with the semifinals from the ACC, Big 12, Big East and Pac 12.  Should be some fantastic games!!!

There are going to be a lot of crazy important games on Thursday.   Take your pick of games from the ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big East and Pac 12 tournaments.  There will be lots of great games.

Games that are particularly interesting to me because of their impact on the bubble.

• Louisville vs Virginia (ACC quarters) – we know that Louisville has the ability to play with the Cavs – they almost upset them last week.  But a win tomorrow probably gets Louisville into the dance if they are not already there.
• Alabama vs Texas A&M (SEC quarters) – Alabama went from looking like they were in to losing 5 straight, including a 2 point loss to the Aggies.  They lost to 5 teams likely all in the tournament, but it did send Alabama to 8-10, which as we know is a dangerous place to be.
• Stanford vs UCLA (Pac 12 quarters) – both teams are 11-7 in the conference, and yet neither team looks like they are safely in if you believe the bracketologists.  If they are right, the loser of this game might be looking at the NIT.
• Notre Dame vs Duke (ACC quarters) – I am not sure I am sold that the Bonzie Colson led Irish are a tourney team.  Not sure if they are the team that let Pitt stick around and fell down 21 to Virginia Tech – or if they are the team that came back to beat the Hokies.  If the Irish beat the Blue Devils, I will be sold.
• Oklahoma State vs Kansas (Big 12 quarters) – can Oklahoma State really beat Kansas three time in a season.  I think the Cowboys have to be in if they pull off that feat.

 

I actually think the Big East might have two of the most fun games of the data as Creighton plays Providence, and Butler plays Seton Hall.  But I think these teams spots in the tournament are probably safer than some of the bubble teams above.  There’s also probably a few games that are still having their matchups set up that will be fun with huge bubble implications.  Not to mention that both Richmond and VCU start their Atlantic 10 conference tournament – so there is the local rooting interest as well.

In the ACC, the teams that needed victories the most so far have won.  Louisville took down Florida State earlier in the day, and Notre Dame just came from down 21 to beat Virginia Tech.

On the other side of the bubble, is one of the craziest things that I have seen.  Arizona State reached 3rd in the AP Poll and actually received some first place votes.  Oklahoma reached 4th in the AP Poll  just 7 weeks ago.  Then, both teams went on losing streaks – which have led both teams to finish 8-10 in their conferences.

Today, Arizona State lost 97-85 to Colorado in the first round of the Pac 12 conference tournament.   Then, Oklahoma lost 71-60 to Oklahoma State in the first round of the Big 12 conference tournament.  And so now we wait – can two teams that at one point were considered top 5 teams actually not even make the tournament.  While I haven’t done my ranking of teams, I have a serious problem with taking a team that went 8-11 in conference.

The Big 12 has a really good reputation – so maybe an 8-11 team from that conference can get in.  But can you really take an 8-11 team from the Pac 12 and then not take any combination of USC, UCLA, Utah and Stanford (who finished 3+ games ahead in the standings).  Oregon and Washington were 2 games ahead in the standings.  At this point, even 8-10 Colorado has an argument that they are the better team.

To be fair, I think the Pac 12 gets a bad wrap.  People point to Arizona State’s victories or Kansas and Xavier as why they belong in.  So – what does that say about the rest of the Pac 12 that they are dominating the Sun Devils.

I will also argue for Nebraska who went 13-5 in the Big 10.  People will say that they needed to win their first conference tournament game and they lost big.  But lets remember – they lost big to Michigan – who then went on to beat Michigan State and Purdue for the Big 10 title.  I will be shocked if Oklahoma State or Colorado do the same.

All I know is that I am glad that I am not the committee – its going to be hard to figure out who goes.  Two more bubble teams still to play – lets see what Syracuse and Texas do.  Syracuse at least has the comfort that they won their first round game – and UNC is a tough opponent.   Texas has to make sure they don’t get upset by Iowa State.

With both conference championships going on at the moment with double digit leads by the favorites (South Dakota State and Gonzaga), it is time to look ahead to Wednesdays games.   Although before we do that, a quick congratulations to Wright State (who ended Cleveland State’s crazy upset run in the Horizon), LIU Brooklyn (who upset Wagner in the NEC), and Charleston (who came back from down 17 to beat Northeastern in overtime to claim the Colonial bid).

Looks like we only have one conference final – as the Patriot Conference sees #1 Bucknell (24-9) plays #2 Colgate (19-12).  But we have plenty of good games as the major conferences start their tournaments.

The ACC enters its second round, where Louisville and Florida State kick off a great day of games – in what might be a lose and you’re out type game.  Then, in the evening games, Notre Dame gets their chance to get a big win against Virginia Tech – while Syracuse matches up against North Carolina.

The Big 12 has their play-in games, but those are pretty interesting with Oklahoma playing Oklahoma State, and Texas playing Iowa State.  Oklahoma is probably the only one of those teams that could make the tourney if they lose Wednesday (but it would be better off for the Sooners if they don’t test that theory).

The Pac 12 has their first round of games – with the biggest game probably being Arizona State vs. Colorado.  The Sun Devils looked like one of the best teams in college basketball after their non-conference performance, but they have struggled in conference – now finding themselves 8-10 in conference and desperately needing a win against a very competitive team from Colorado.   But then, Stanford, Oregon and Washington play games that they can not afford to lose to keep their bubble hopes alive.

Marquette kicks off the Big East tournament – it would be unwise to have the last thing the committee remember about their team being a loss to DePaul – not sure it will eliminate them, but they will be better off if they avoid a first round upset.

Enjoy the games tomorrow!

 

Monday didn’t have a lot of games, but it sure did have some surprises.  That being said, those surprises didn’t happen in the two conference finals.  Iona won the MAAC tournament and UNC-Greensboro took the Southern tournament.

Cleveland State continued their reign of terror in the Horizon tournament – as they entered the post-season with a 9-22 record, and in three days have won the play-in game, knocked off the #1 seed Northern Kentucky, and then hit a basket with 32 seconds and made a few defensive stops to finish off #4 seed Oakland 44-43.

Then, to end the night, BYU put together one of their best games of the season by taking down nationally ranked #20 St. Mary’s.  While BYU has had a pretty good season at 24-9 so it is hard to say that this is an amazing upset.   But it does have huge bubble implications – everyone expected the West Coast Conference final to be Gonzaga and St. Mary’s and both teams would get in.  Now, BYU can steal the bid and shrink the bubble – and St. Mary’s sadly goes on it (since their 28-5 resume looks eerily similar to other years where they got snubbed and sent to the NIT).

So – to the viewing guide.  Their are five conference finals tonight.

• 7 pm – Horizon:  #2 Wright State (24-9) vs #8 Cleveland State (12-22) – can Wright State end the Vikings Cinderella run.
• 7 pm – Colonial: #1 Charleston (25-7) vs #2 Northeastern (23-9) – regular season co-champions fight for the bid.
• 7 pm – NEC: #1 Wagner (23-8) vs #4 LIU Brooklyn (17-16) – the Northeast conference tourney reseeds each round allowing for an unusual 1 vs 4 matchup in the final.
• 9 pm – Summit: #1 South Dakota State (27-6) vs #2 South Dakota (26-7) – SD State is one of those conference champions with a high enough RPI at 53 to get a look, but with being beaten by double digits by Kansas and Wichita State, and only Quadrant 1 win being a neutral court victory over Buffalo (RPI 32), they probably need this game.  And of course, they get a talented in-state rival who is the only Summit conference team to beat them this season – should be a fun game.
• 9 pm – WCC: #1 Gonzaga vs #3 BYU – can BYU steal the bid and shrink the bubble, or will Gonzaga continue their dominance of the West Coast Conference.

Also today is the first round games of the ACC Tournament.  Notre Dame is trying to show now that Bonzie Colson is back, they are a worthy team to make the tournament despite their 8-10 conference record (where they slumped once their star was out of the lineup).  However, beating Pittsburgh today isn’t going to sway the committee – but losing certainly won’t help their cause.  You also have 8-10 Syracuse i(who has a much better RPI and is more solidly in the bubble conversation) in the same boat, as winning against Wake Forest likely doesn’t get the Orange into the dance, but losing to the Demon Deacons could end their chances for an invitation.

The Madness is beginning – should be a fun day of games!!!!

Since there is a little bit of a lull (although congratulations to Iona for winning the MAAC tournament), I will say some of my thoughts on the scandal of paying players.

• I am glad that players like Wendell Carter were not severely punished for having a meal with an agent and allowing the agent to pay for it.  I understand it is against the rules, but that doesn’t seem like a NCAA violation that should end a player’s college career.
• I believe in innocent until proven guilty, and so I am willing to wait out the end of the FBI investigation to find out if Arizona’s Sean Miller offered $100K to make sure Deandre Ayton became a Wildcat.  But if the wiretap really caught that, he should never coach in college again.  Ever – no second chance,  no going to a small school – it needs to be a lifetime ban.
• I am not naive enough to believe that it is just the 20+ schools in the Yahoo! report.  I sadly believe this is a small portion of the cheating.

I have some very specific comments about LeBron James entering the fray and talking about how corrupt the NCAA is for exploiting the players.

• Let’s remember, LeBron, that the one and done rule is not the NCAA’s.  It is the NBA that created this mess – they are the ones who wanted to stop high schoolers going straight to the pros because of the large portion of them who would get drafted and flame out.  With the amount of money at stake for the NBA teams, they wanted better scouting of these players before giving them millions of dollars.
• LeBron was quoted – “I’ve always heard the narrative that they get a free education, but you guys are not bringing me on campus to get an education; you guys are bringing me on it to help you get to a Final Four or to a national championship, so it’s just a weird thing.”   This is not evidence they are corrupt.  Of course they are offering these athletes scholarships to win basketball games.  The payment they are offering is an education – they are a large university that does not care if you take advantage of all the valuable opportunities they offer.  They are giving their services for your services – they are going to take every advantage they can from your services.  It is the student athlete’s responsibility to take advantage of the opportunity to get a degree.
• Then LeBron laughably said the NBA G-league was an option.  Because not only was the NBA the ones who created this mess by stopping the athletes from going straight to the their league, but the NBA cares so much about these young athletes that they offer their G-league players an entire $26,000 to play in their league.  If that player is talented enough to play overseas, they can make at least 3 times this – plus, the European clubs tend to pay for the player’s lodging and sometimes even taxes.
• Oh – and that corrupt NCAA is offering a full ride scholarship that on average is worth about $38,000.  And that is the net amount – so it would be more like $50-60K pre-taxes.  So, even the corrupt organization is offering twice as much money as what LeBron is suggesting these high schoolers take.  Their G-league salary won’t help them get money to their families when they are barely scraping by to pay their rent for where they live.
• And if they blow out their ACL playing G-league ball and their career is done, they have nothing to fall back on.  But I am sure the NBA will take care of them because they care so much.  We could all argue about how corrupt the NCAA is, but you have to be joking if you are saying the NBA is looking out for these young athletes.

Sadly, I don’t have the answers to how to make this work.  I am not involved with college athletics, so I can’t tell you how bad things truly are or what you can do to make it better.  But some thoughts.

• While in principle I like it, you can’t offer them the opportunity to make money through endorsements / autographs / etc.  That simply becomes the open door to allow boosters with deep pockets to come in and give the athlete’s money.  Then, recruiting simply becomes which school’s boosters have the best endorsement deals.
• Make all scholarships five year commitments.  If a player gets injured and can no longer play or even if the school simply thinks the player is not good enough to play on the next year’s roster, the school is allowed to offer another player a scholarship to fill their team – but the injured player gets to keep their scholarship to finish their education.  If we are going to say it is about the student-athletes getting an education, lets ensure the athlete can get that education no matter what.
• I think the athletes should be allowed to sign with an agent.  You can set up rules (that maybe even you could get your caring friend in the NBA to help) where agents are not allowed to offer high schoolers gifts or loans for signing with them.  They can take them for a meal to discuss if they are the right agency (and the agent can pay for the meal as their business expense), but no gifts that could have a future monetary value.  Be very clear what is allowed and what is not – and enforce it.
• Make the draft open.   All college athletes are allowed into the draft.  If they don’t get drafted, they can return to college assuming they have eligibility remaining.  Their agent can help set them up with the right tryouts to see if they are ready.  If they do get drafted, they have the right to continue playing in college to finish their education – but the NBA team that drafted them will retain the rights to sign them when they are done (we all know if they get drafted, they will leap to the NBA).
• If an agent is caught giving gifts to the amateur athlete, they lose their license.  Coaches can not be caught paying agents to funnel players to them – if they are caught breaking that rule, they receive a lifetime ban from coaching (and schools can then immediately end their contracts with no additional payout).  If you want to stop the underhanded money, you need to make the punishment large.

Basically, take away the agent’s reason to give them money (he wants to sign the athlete, and now he can do it without having to give him things along the way).  Take away the coaches incentive by making the punishment that they will never coach again.  And give the athlete the opportunity to go immediately to the pros when the pros think they are ready.  Don’t make them have to choose between their education or their dream.   Let the pros decide if they are ready and if not, let them continue to getting their education both on and off the court.

None of that will likely happen.  We will have lots of people say that they care – and not much will change.

 

 

Since I already have the NCAA results page done, I figured I would get an early start on the bracketology page.  Right now, it is more of a bubble watch page – as I think through how I want it to look and start to rank the teams.  But look to that page for the Lunatic’s bubble analysis!  Just look at Bracketology 2018!.

Congratulation to our four conference champions crowned today.

• Loyola (Chicago) is being thanked by many bubble teams as they did not allow the Missouri Valley auto-bid to be stolen by Illinois State.  Loyola had a top 30 RPI and a road victory against Florida – so it would have been an interesting case.
• Radford claimed the Big South in dramatic fashion – by hitting a buzzer beating three pointer to win against Liberty
• Lipscomb managed to get up by 29 points at halftime against regular season champion Florida Gulf Coast, and managed to hang on to win the Atlantic Sun Championship.
• Michigan made me sad by taking down my beloved Boilermakers to claim the Big 10 auto-bid (although the Wolverines and Boilermakers were both already safely in the field).  But the Wolverines deserve some praise – they hit some amazing shots on offense, killed the boards, and completely shut down Purdue’s star guards – it was a pretty impressive victory for Michigan.

That being said, my friend Dave came over to watch the championship with me and cheer on our alma mater.  I think to be safe, Dave and I can not watch any of Purdue’s tournament games together, since that is the worst that I have seen Purdue’s back-court shoot the ball (to be fair, I am sure it was more due to Michigan’s tenacious defense – but why risk it).  Then again, it was probably also a blessing that Dave was here – it probably prevented me from saying a lot of bad things at my television set since my kids were still at swimming practice and would not have heard the bad words.

Tomorrow will see two more championships with completely different feels.

• The Southern Conference Championship will pit their top two teams against each other as #1 UNC-Greensboro (26-7) will play #2 East Tennessee State (25-8).  Pretty impressive to see a conference final have two teams that have combined to win 51 games.
• The MAAC Conference Championship is Cinderella’s dream – right now, #4 Iona is the top seed left in the semi-finals, and they find themselves down to #9 St. Peter’s 53-49 with about 7 minutes to play.   The second semi-final puts #6 Fairfield up against #7 Quinnipiac.  So, the top 3 seeds all went down in the quarterfinals.  And right now, the MAAC has a 50/50 chance that their champion will have a losing record this season – as winning the semi-finals and finals can not give St. Peter’s or Quinnipiac enough wins to get to .500.

 

On Saturday night, many people were enjoying one of the best rivalries in college basketball as Duke hosted North Carolina at Cameron Indoor Stadium.  And while Marvin Bagley III and senior Grayson Allen were leading the Blue Devils back from being down 13, quietly in Evansville, Indiana was a game that might have had more significance – especially for the two small schools that were playing.  In that game, the Racers from Murray State defended their regular season championship by beating second seeded Belmont 68-51 to win the Ohio Valley Championship game.  The Racers entered the Ohio Valley tournament as 16-2 in conference and 23-5 overall.  But unlike Duke and North Carolina, who can survive to lose multiple games in conference, Murray State knew it needed to win three more games or all that work would be lost.  And as true champions, Murray State rose to the occasion and won their conference tournament – making them the first team with a bid to the 2018 NCAA Championship!!!  It also means one other thing – IT MUST BE MARCH!!!!!

And as four more conferences (Missouri Valley, Big South, Atlantic Sun and the Big 10) play their conference championship games Sunday to award 4 more teams bids to the dance, it can only mean one more thing – it must be time to STOMP THE LUNATIC!!!!!!!!!!!

The Lunatic is back for another beating, with his foolish attempt to predict college basketball games and provide entertaining commentary that could only possibly be the ramblings of a sleep-deprived lunatic.  We all know better – he is no real threat – his kids will likely have better picks by picking schools that their grandparents attended.  It needs to be all of our mission to put the Lunatic back in his proper place.

So, without any more delays, the 2018 Stomp the Lunatic contest is officially announced!!!!!!!

The most important part is ready – the website is up and ready to go for another year of bracket picks.   As always, the website will have all of the pages that make the Stomp the Lunatic great – whether it be NCAA results so the statisticians can build predictive models, poorly done bracketology that will show the Lunatic is simply a crazy basketball fan, cheat sheets once the brackets are released for those of us who don’t want to do hours of analysis, and of course, everyone’s favorite rants about the games.   Please remember that even if you participated last year, you must register again for this year’s contest (although it is much easier to wait until next week – when the registry page will lead you straight to your home to enter your picks).

Those who are looking to build their models can get an extra head start – the Excel document with all the results from this season’s games is already on the site – updated through Saturday night’s games.  I will periodically update it throughout the week, when I am not ranting about the games or other things.

As always, I have simply mailed past distribution lists and those of you who might have heard me mention that I lose my sanity around this time of year.  One of these years, the Lunatic might get organized enough to create a real distribution list.  I probably would not be counting on that happening this year – he is crazy after all.  Please feel free to invite your friends, or anyone else that I simply left off the list by accident.

Once the committee has announced the 68 teams, I will update the site to have the entry form. If you don’t remember the rules (or this email has been forwarded to you), there is a link on the site. As we did last year, we will not pick the 4 play-in games. So, all entries are needed by Thursday, March 15th by the time the first games start (typically Noon).

If you have any questions, feel free to send me an e-mail, just realize I only check at night when I get home from work!!!!!!!!!!!!! Also, if you don’t want to get further e-mails about this, please let me know, and I will do my best to remove you from the distribution list – although remember as mentioned up above, organized e-mail lists are not one of my strengths.

So, do your research, get ready for the Madness to begin, and good luck to everyone in STOMPING THE LUNATIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, it is ready through Saturday’s (March 3rd) games!   For the most part, the file is the same as normal.   I have continued with the approach that conference tournament game are counted as conference games instead of post-season games.

No promises that I will update every day, but wanted to make this available for everyone – and will update as I have time throughout the week – the spreadsheet has a page that says when it is last updated.

For those of you who want to do crazy statistical research, build models, or just have all the schedule data at your fingertips to evaluate teams, the data is there in the research links under 2018 Schedule.

Obviously, remember the traditional Lunatic disclaimers.  I have done some basic cleaning and quality checks against RPI data – but there are a lot of games, and so I will not make the claim that I have checked every piece of the dataset.

One other important note – since I don’t remember a lot of these happening in the past.  While I didn’t get a lot of the details, apparently Hampton beat Morgan State by forfeit on February 24th.  From the couple of articles I could read, Hampton was up in the second half 57-38 when there was an altercation.  Both Morgan State coach Todd Bozeman and player David Syfax were ejected from the game – and then Bozeman instructed his players to leave the floor – causing the game to end.  By NCAA rules, the score gets marked as a forfeit – which becomes a 2-0 win for Hampton.   Just be aware that is how it is stored in the data file.

For those of you who are not familiar with this tradition, I will give you some more details.

As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I pick Purdue to go far and just randomly pick the other games late Wednesday evening.

However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort.

If you notice something terribly wrong, let me know – no promises I have time to fix it, but at least everyone will know.

Enjoy the data!!!!