It is almost an inevitability that many of you will Stomp the Lunatic - and we all know that drives the Lunatic crazy. He loves college basketball so much that he feels he has to show that he can provide tons of brilliant analysis and insight to predict the games. So, he has created this extremely time-consuming part of his website where since he knows his bracket is going to burn in flames, he will demonstrate his brilliance of picking games by picking basketball games by showing it against the Vegas lines. Because if he can't beat half the people in the pool, it is clearly obvious that he can beat the people making tons of money on compulsive gamblers.
Lunatic Disclosure #1This is for recreational purposes only. The Lunatic does not promote using this as a guide to win money this weekend in Vegas!!!!!
Lunatic Disclosure #2:In case you haven't read the first disclosure, maybe this will convince you. I have never left a Vegas sports-book with more money than I came with.
Lunatic Disclosure #3:In case you haven't read the first two disclosures, I have lost imaginary money in this silly feature for most of the years (although I did really well last year) - I am not really sure why I keep doing it because it really takes a lot of effort. Oh yeah!!! I am crazy about college basketball.
Lunatic Disclosure #4:If you are in Virginia, then you know that from all the FanDuel and DraftKings commercials that some online sportsbooks are now legally operating in Virginia. And despite the fact that I could, I will not create an account on one of those sites and place a bet on ANY of these handicapping choices.
That's right - even though I now could possibly place these bets, I still will not do that. With my luck, that means since I have nothing riding on it, I will be wildly successful this year. But the reality is that I have poor luck when my money is on the game - we all know of the Lunatic Curse.
I am happy to go to my imaginary casino and bet imaginary money on games that I really know absolutely little information about the teams to provide an entertaining blog. Typically it is fun watching me do horribly on spreads and trying to make it up by winning on the over/unders. My commentary on the games are ludicrous since I have no business handicapping any of these games. That is what makes it entertaining.
But at the end of the day, it still is imaginary. No real money gets lost. And the truth is gambling can be a dangerous addiction. I never really worried much about it because where I lived I had the realization that most sane people would never use these picks to make a real bet, and most of us lived in an area where you could not bet on the games. So even if you were crazy enough to try, you couldn't do it.
Now that at least those of us who live in the same state as me have options, I need to really emphasize the point. I do this for fun. It is entertaining for me to see how I do, and I think it is entertaining for the readers to read the commentary. And despite the significantly unusual result from last year where I ended ahead about $200, the Lunatic certainly does not do well enough to be considered a credible handicapper. A sleep-deprived and crazy handicapper - absolutely. Credible - only in the Lunatic's dreams. I will not be betting my money on any of these picks, and so that tells you how much faith I have in them.
Anyways, here is the structure. I predict every game - because what fun would it be otherwise. To give myself a chance, I tier my bets into three types.
A $10 imaginary bet means I have absolutely no clue. I also tend to bet small on games where I have a huge bias (such as when my Boilers play). I can’t make an imaginary bet against the team I want to win. No true fan would go into a Vegas sportsbook and bet against their team - neither will the Lunatic
A $20 imaginary bet means I have some confidence that my pick will win.
A $30 imaginary bet means I am so confident I would lock that pick and go big.
I also have a tendency after a bad first set of games to stop the tier structure and just bet the same amount on every game. I would probably be intelligent to do that to start - but lets face it. There is a tremendous amount of humor in watching the Lunatic curse crush all the picks that I lock.
Typically, I get all my locks wrong, and hit the games that I have no clue. Maybe I am not giving myself a good chance by tiering my bets!!!
As you know, I sadly lost my Word Press sites, so this page might suffer in appearance for it. I also don't know that I will be able to proudly show the amazing picks I did last year in time. I have them in a horrible format from the WordPress database that I can eventually restore, but I might run out of time before the tournament. We'll see how the bracketology piece goes. However, I do still have the pages from before I foolishly tried to move to a blog format.
| Day | Record against spread | Record against totals |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday's First Four | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-12) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($7) |
| Wednesday's First Four | 2 - 0 - 0 ($45) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-2) |
| Thursday's First Round | 9 - 7 - 0 ($62) | 10 - 6 - 0 ($117) |
| Friday's First Round | 8 - 8 - 0 ($12) | 10 - 6 - 0 ($59) |
| Saturday's Second Round | 2 - 5 - 1 ($-63) | 6 - 2 - 0 ($49) |
| Sunday's Second Round | 2 - 6 - 0 ($-73) | 5 - 3 - 0 ($77) |
| Thursday's Sweet 16 | 1 - 3 - 0 ($-51) | 1 - 3 - 0 ($-61) |
| Friday's Sweet 16 | 2 - 2 - 0 ($-23) | 1 - 3 - 0 ($-22) |
| Saturday's Elite 8 | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-11) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-21) |
| Sunday's Elite 8 | 0 - 2 - 0 ($-40) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-2) |
| Saturday's Final 4 | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-3) | 1 - 1 - 0 ($-3) |
| Monday's Championship | 0 - 0 - 0 ($0) | 0 - 0 - 0 ($0) |
| Overall | 29 - 36 - 1 ($-157) | 38 - 28 - 0 ($198) |
Well, after Saturday's Final Four, the Lunatic is switching things up a little bit. After watching Duke throw away a chance to play in the championship game, I can't do the same thing with my handicapping. I am currently up $41. If I bet $20 on each bet, the worst that happens is I walk away with $1 imaginary dollar. I am playing with imaginary house money and so I should make sure I walk away with a win. As for the game, I am struggling with what I want to see happen vs. what I think will happen. I think that there are three scenarios that happen - of which only one I will enjoy. Originally, I thought Florida and Duke would be in the championship game, and I was within a last minute collapse of seeing that happen. If I thought Florida and Duke were the best two teams, I should go with that handicapping and pick the Gators - especially since it is basically a pick-em game with the line at 1 point. So, here are the scenarios that I think can happen. What I want to see happen - Florida learns from Duke's mistake and speeds the game up - a fast paced game favors the Gators and since Houston tends to have runs, use the pace of the game to optimize your team's successful run. What I don't want to see happen but is certainly possible - Houston uses their physicality to slow the game down to a crawl, no one gets a good shot off, and it turns into a first team to 60 wins obviously leading to the Cougars winning. I don't want this since I believe there is a fine line between great defense and outright fouling knowing that the refs won't call it, and Houston masters that. The third possibility is that the refs decide that they are not going to let that contact happen and the game turns into a free throw shooting contest. In this scenario, Florida wins because Houston will be in so much foul trouble that they will struggle to finish the game playing to their style of play. I don't want this because the game becomes boring when there is a foul on every possession - even if there is a foul on every possession. For those who want a more mathematical approach, Florida and Houston have had a few like opponents (Alabama - Florida beat twice and Houston lost by 5, Arizona State - both beat by double digits, Auburn - Florida beat twice and Houston lost, Tennessee - Houston beat by 19, Florida beat twice and lost once, Texas Tech - Florida beat by 5, Houston beat once and lost once). All-in-all, I think looking at same opponents favors Florida. Florida games go over 141 78.9% of the time while Houston games go over 141 23.7% of the time - something has to give. But if you are picking Florida, you should go with their style of play so take the over. Anyways - since I believe two of those three scenarios support Florida and the over and the analytics somewhat support it, that is what I will take. And the worst thing that happens is I will take my imaginary $1 victory.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Florida(20) Totals: Over(20)
I could do this in a safe way, since I enter the Final Four up $47. If I only bet $10 on each of the games, the worst I can end up is down $13. But we know no compulsive gambler would do that. I am ahead - so I am playing with house money. Lets go big for the final 6 bets and try to make some imaginary money. When Florida travelled to Auburn in February, they won 90-81. Their fast pace of play tends to lead to them scoring 80+ points. So, if they played already, why wouldn't you take the Gators to win in a track meet like they did in February.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Florida(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Florida 79, Auburn 73 Spread: $27 Totals: $-30
Watching Duke destroy Alabama makes me want to lock the Blue Devils with an amount of confidence the Lunatic rarely has. And then watching Houston hold Tennessee to only 50 points, and that confidence goes away quickly. Well, if you look at all the games in the NCAA, 77% of the winners won by mroe than 5 points. If you look at Duke and the 35 times they have won, only once was the game closer than 5 points (when UNC came back in the ACC tournament with Flagg not playing). Also, the Blue Devils have scored no less than 85 points all tournament. While I expect Houston might slow them down a little bit. it shouldn't be enough to stop the over from happening.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Houston 70, Duke 67 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
Well - if you are struggling with picking the favorites to cover the spread, the easiest thing to do is stop taking the favorites. But joking aside, here is what is going through my head. Houston defeated Purdue with an amazing defensive performance. Tennessee defeated Kentucky also with an amazing defensive performance. Houston is the Big 12 regular season and tournament champions. But Tennessee is from the mighty SEC. So, for Sunday's games, I thought to myself a strange thought. If I had to pick this game, I probably lean towards the Cougars. But there are three things going through my mind. Houston had multiple stretches against Purdue where they simply could not score - I think Tennessee can take advantage of that better. Tennessee is a lot more physical as another defensive team and so some of the advantage that Houston got over Purdue I think will not exist. And there is the don't select against what you want to see happening. My sane picks went with Tennessee, and so I would rather see the Vols win. So, take the Vols.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Tennessee(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Houston 69, Tennessee 50 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
What a fun way to end the Elite 8 - the SEC regular season champion against the Big 10 regular season champion. The Auburn / Michigan game was actually a lot closer than the score suggests. Not to mention that Michigan State looks destined to play in close games. I actually think the physical play from the Wolverines was giving Auburn trouble, and Michigan just went cold from the field. The smarter play is probably to take Auburn. But I have to root for the Big 10. I keep having the phrase go in my head - never bet against Tom Izzo in March. So, I am going to take the team that I would rather root for. I will take the Spartans.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan State(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Auburn 70, Michigan State 64 Spread: $-20 Totals: $18
The Lunatic is falling apart with his picks against the spread. One day, he picks that a team will win but not cover the spread - and the teams cover the spread. In the Sweet 16, the Lunatic went with who he thought would win - and they would win - just not cover. So, I am not sure what to do - I want close games, but I don't feel good about picking that. Arkansas jumped out to a double digit lead on Texas Tech before going cold and letting the Red Raiders come back. The Gators will not let that happen - if they get a double digit lead, they will keep it (as they did against Maryland). I am expecting a game really similar to the Florida / Maryland game - one that the Gators won by 16 and the totals hit 158.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Florida(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Florida 84, Texas Tech 79 Spread: $-20 Totals: $9
Here is what I feel good about. Alabama / BYU combined for 201 points. Duke and Arizona combined for 193 points. This will be a track meet - where we might see the winner get to 100 for the third time in Newark. Here is what I don't feel good about. If Duke plays the way they have in almost every game this season, they will win. Duke clearly has a better defense than BYU, and so I certainly don't expect the Tide to shoot 25 for 51 from three. But if any team has a chance to light it up against the Blue Devils, it is Alabama. Of course, the Lunatic hasn't been successful whether he picks the winner to cover the spread or not - so I will pick the #1 team in the country and hope they cover.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(10) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Duke 85, Alabama 65 Spread: $9 Totals: $-30
I wrote it and then I broke the rule. Never bet against Tom Izzo in March. The Spartans are the Big 10 regular season champions - they play extremely sound defense and they have multiple ways to beat you. Ole Miss has looked fantastic in the tournament - especially with their 13 point victory over Iowa State. But Michigan State continues to show a resilency that makes sense of a team that won their regular season championship. And when you have a chance to take a conference regular season champion and only give 3.5 points, it makes sense to take advantage of that.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan State(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Michigan State 73, Ole Miss 70 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-10
These teams played twice, with Kentucky sweeping the series by 11 and 5 points. I get that Tennessee is considered the better team, but it seems that the Wildcats have their number. If you have a chance to take a team who has swept a series and the casino is going to give you an extra 4.5 points to take that team, you have to take the points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Kentucky(30) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Tennessee 78, Kentucky 65 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-10
When Michigan gets beat, it tends to be by a lot. And Auburn is the type of team that can jump out early on an opponent and quickly make it a double digit game. I suspect that Auburn will not be the best matchup for Michigan.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Auburn(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Auburn 78, Michigan 65 Spread: $18 Totals: $18
You should never bet against your team. Is Houston the type of team that Purdue can struggle against - absolutely. Houston is a very athletic teams that plays incredible defense and can drive to the basket - that is not a good matchup for the Boilermakers (or to be fair, for any team). But I have to believe that Purdue getting sent to the Indianapolis break was fate. You have to believe!!!!! BOILER UP!!!!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Houston 62, Purdue 60 Spread: $9 Totals: $-20
So there is nothing that I like about this game. The BYU / Wisconsin game (and almost any Alabama game) suggests the over - but 176 points is a lot of points. I think Alabama is the better team. But unlike the St. Mary's game, where I said teams that try to slow the game down are just taking possessions away from themselves, BYU is the type of team that has the offensive mind-set to go toe to toe with the Crimson Tide. I would normally avoid the game completely, but since I need to take a team, I will reluctantly take BYU and the over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: BYU(10) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Alabama 113, BYU 88 Spread: $-10 Totals: $9
This seems like such a bad choice. This is the game that my model thought was the furthest away from the spread (and suggested to take Maryland). Part of this is probably because the largest loss that the Terrapins have suffered is a 6 point loss to Washington. Their more typical loss is a heart-breaking last second shot (like the half-court buzzer beater that Michigan State beat them on). I decided to go with Florida because my original handicapping had the Gators as one of the top 2 teams in the country, and after watching Maryland to need a last second shot to beat Colorado State, and the Gators surviving against the defending National Champions, I believe the Gators are going to jump out quickly in this game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Florida(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Florida 87, Maryland 71 Spread: $9 Totals: $-20
Duke beat Arizona earlier in the season by 14 - with the teams combining for 122 points. You never know what happens with a team like Arizona when you have a player like Caleb Love. But I don't think the Wildcats have an answer for Cooper Flagg - and I think the Blue Devils have more of a chance to defensively stop Love. The numbers and the eye test all scream take Duke.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Duke 100, Arizona 93 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-30
I just can't pick Arkansas. The problem with a team that goes 8-10 in conference is that while they can show flashes of brilliance, it is hard to depend on that every single game. Eventually, their inconsistency gets the best of them. Texas Tech went 15-5 in the Big 12 (that sent 4 teams to the Sweet 16) - I get that the SEC sent 7, and if we were talking about Kentucky against Texas Tech, I would be going with the SEC team. But I have to take the 2nd place team from the Big 12 over the 10th place team from the SEC.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas Tech(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Texas Tech 85, Arkansas 83 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-20
I expect this game to go very similar to the Auburn / Creighton game. That game barely got the over with the SEC team covering the spread. Seems like a good pick after midnight. After noticing that Uconn has 91% of its games go over 151 points, I changed this to a lock.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Florida(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Florida 77, Connecticut 75 Spread: $-20 Totals: $27
I struggled on Saturday with games where I felt the line was more than I thought a team would cover. So, in this case, I definitely think Duke will win, and so lets look at what they do against teams in that range. They beat Arizona by 14, Illinois by 43, and UNC by 13,17 and 3 (without Flagg). They also lost to Kansas by 3. So, 2/3rd of the time, they cover 12 pts. So, I will take the Blue Devils. Duke covers 144 over 50% and Baylor does 87% so I am going to be aggressive with the over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Duke 89, Baylor 66 Spread: $18 Totals: $27
I would normally stay as far away from this game as possible. They actually played 6 of the same teams - Kentucky did better against 3 and Illinois did better against 3. This game should be a track meet - and they both cover the over in about 60% of their games, but 170 points is still a lot - even for two teams who like to play fast. Since I don't have a good feeling, I will go with my heart - as someone who grew up in Chicago, I am an Illinois fan - so I will take the Illini.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Illinois(10) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Kentucky 84, Illinois 75 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-10
Alabama is the better team in this game. St. Mary's is the more consistent team in this game. The Crimson Tide seem to struggle the most when a team takes advantage of their defense and tries to outscore them. The Gaels are going to try to slow this game down and play their style of game (remember they played Vandy to 59-56), but I feel limiting possessions is not the solution to beating the Tide. I am going to take Alabama but predict the under.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Alabama(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Alabama 80, St. Mary's 66 Spread: $9 Totals: $18
Colorado State surprised me, but it is important to remember Memphis was missing one of their starters. Maryland is a better team than Memphis and they are at full strength (as far as I know - I missed the Memphis injury, so I will need to talk to the Lunatic's Scouting Department). I know that the Rams have been on a tremendous run, but this is typically the round where the clock strikes midnight on Cinderella and this tournament has been one where the chalk has dominated.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Maryland(30) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Maryland 72, Colorado State 71 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
Ole Miss really impressed me against UNC - I suspect the big lead was more because of UNC being inconsistent, but it takes a huge amount of resolve when a team makes that kind of comeback and shut them down in the end - if the game is close, don't let Sean Pedulla get the ball. And Iowa State does have injury problems with Keshon Gilbert out. But the Cyclones seem to be still playing at a high level. And the Big 12 has probably been the best conference vs. expectations so far (I think they are now 9-1). My heart will always be with the Cyclones - I have family who lives in Aimes and so I always root for the Cyclones. So, I will take the Lunatic's advice of never betting against the outcome you want.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa State(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Ole Miss 91, Iowa State 78 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-20
Did you know that the Lobos are 2-0 against the Big 10 this year? They beat UCLA and USC during the non-conference schedule. It is probably just a coincidence that those are two of the teams that the Spartans lost to on their February road trip. You add in the fact that the Spartans started off slow against Bryant before pulling away and the fact that New Mexico beat a very good Marquette team, and I have to give the guidance to take the 7.5 points with the Lobos. It makes me nervous since that was the logic I used often on Saturday and watched as all those games did not cover. Not to mention the never bet against Tom Izzo in March philosophy. So, I am going to go with the stats in this case, and only put 10 on it - since there are superstitions that I have which are screaming at me not to do it.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: New Mexico(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Michigan State 71, New Mexico 63 Spread: $-10 Totals: $18
Could you pick two teams who played better than Arizona and Oregon to finish off the second round? This should be a great game. I have reasons to pick Arizona - my handicapping model has them winning by 5. Caleb Love is an amazing player and tough to stop. The Big 12 is 9-1, including a big upset of BYU over Wisconsin. I have reasons to pick Oregon - I think Dana Altman is one of the best coaches out there. They have a balanced attack with 4 players averaging double digits in points - so even if you shut down one player, they have other ways to beat you. And Arizona is 0-2 against the Big 10 - losing to UCLA and Wisconsin (a team that Oregon beat). I am going to pick the Ducks to get some revenge for the Big 10 against the Big 12 and pull the upset.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Oregon(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Arizona 87, Oregon 83 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-10
I strangely would have been more comfortable against Clemson. If I gave my unbiased opinion, I would be excited to take Purdue with 5.5 points against a mid-major champion. But when you see 12 seeds win, you realize that you are going against a conference champion who probably should have been ranked higher than some of the bubble teams. There are so many factors that can stress out a team - and so going against a good team like McNeese that doesn't have much to lose scares me. Then again, could just be that I am worried any time I watch my Boilers play - I want them to win so badly.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Purdue 76, McNeese 62 Spread: $9 Totals: $9
St. John's have been really hot to end the season. I still remember how they won by 16 against Marquette and Creighton to claim the Big East tournament. And while Arkansas certainly played well against Kansas, I can't get past watching that last 4 minutes where the Jayhawks basically were sloppy with the ball to keep turning it over. Some of those were because of the Razorbacks defense, but some of those were just lazy passes that I don't expect you will see from St. John's. I think the Red Storm run away with this one.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: St. John's(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Arkansas 75, St. John's 66 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
This should be a fantastic game. If I look at the statistics, they would suggest Texas A&M will win this close game. Except that is the problem. Michigan is amazingly good at winning close games. Not to mention, I would like to root for the Big 10 - and don't bet against the team you want to root for. So, I will nervously take the Wolverines.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Texas A&M 91, Michigan 79 Spread: $-10 Totals: $18
Drake is a fascinating team in this tournament. If I had to bet on this game straight up, I would obviously take Texas Tech. But the Drake is a very disciplined team that I feel will keep this as a one to two possession game. It should be a really fun game. I think Drake can actually play the role of the Cinderella 11 seed that makes it to the Sweet 16. So, if you believe that Drake can win this (which I do), and then you get 7.5 points to play with, I think the right play is to take Drake.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Drake(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Texas Tech 77, Drake 64 Spread: $-20 Totals: $18
Normally, I would be excited to take Auburn by 9 over a 9 seed. If you gave me this line against Baylor, Georgia or Oklahoma, I probably jump on it. But Auburn has been struggling at the end of the season (against really good teams, but still not looking as dominant as they first did). And the Big East always impresses me in March. If Creighton plays its high-efficient offense that they are known for, they could really give the number 1 team in the country according to the committee some trouble. If I was in a sportsbook with my own money, I would just stay away from this game. But since I am betting at the Lunatic Casino and I am getting 9 points, I will take Creighton.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Creighton(10) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Auburn 82, Creighton 70 Spread: $-10 Totals: $9
As the 1 point line suggests, this could be a fantastic game. BYU really impressed me on how they beat VCU on a very dominating offensive display. However, as a Big 10 fan, I have seen Wisconsin play a lot and am always impressed with how they play. Still remember watching them beat Purdue at home where it looked like you simply could not stop them. Considering how many times I have seen Wisconsin play well, I have to take the Badgers.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Wisconsin(20) Totals: Under(30)
Results: BYU 91, Wisconsin 89 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-30
I am going to take a chance here. Gonzaga is a great offensive team. Houston is a great defensive team. And while Gonzaga can continue to stay hot offensively, if the Cougars play to their potential, they will win this game. If there is any team that can slow down Gonzaga, it is Houston, and I suspect if that happens, the Cougars will jump out to a lead and not look back.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Houston(30) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Houston 81, Gonzaga 76 Spread: $0 Totals: $18
While I am nervous about the statistics around some of the other SEC teams, Tennessee is one of the 4 teams that I feel is driving those adjusted statistics. And while UCLA has had a few upsets against Michigan State and Wisconsin, I have to expect that Tennessee will win this game - and with the line being only 5 points, I like the Volunteers. I probably should lock it - but UCLA scares me just enough to keep it at a normal bet.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Tennessee(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Tennessee 67, UCLA 58 Spread: $18 Totals: $-20
This game feels to me to be the exact same matchup as Arkansas and Kansas. But in some of the games against same opponents, Baylor did perform better than Mississippi State. I made a declaration that I don't like taking teams with losing records - and so maybe a little bit against my better judgment, I am going to take Baylor.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Baylor(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Baylor 75, Mississippi State 72 Spread: $18 Totals: $18
Robert Morris lost by 28 points to West Virginia in their only NET 100 game. Alabama is certainly better than the Mountaineers. While I suspect that Robert Morris will try to slow the game down, they will simply not score enough points to help the Tide cover the huge over/under total. But I suspect they have enough to cover the 22 points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Alabama(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Alabama 90, Robert Morris 81 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-10
Everyone is jumping on the fact that Iowa State lost one of their top players. I am jumping on the fact that Lipscomb lost by 29 points to Kentucky and 16 points to Arkansas. I suspect Iowa State's defense will stifle Lipscomb leading to a lower scoring game that helps the Cyclones cover the spread of 14.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Iowa State(20) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Iowa State 82, Lipscomb 55 Spread: $18 Totals: $9
The Mountain West always seems to struggle in March. And this year, San Diego St lost by 27 to UNC, and Utah State lost by 25 to UCLA. So, when I see that Vegas has #12 seed Colorado State as the favorite against the American's conference champion, I am locking things up as much as I possibly can.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Memphis(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Colorado State 78, Memphis 70 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-20
This is really just a question of if and when Duke will pull their foot off the gas. I suspect that Duke might cover the over close to by themselves. The 32 points scares me a little, but since Mt. St. Mary's lost to Maryland by 34, I can't see why it is unrealistic to take Duke to also cover that large spread.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Duke(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Duke 93, Mount St Mary's 49 Spread: $18 Totals: $27
Gonzaga played an 8-10 SEC team and won by double digits. And I would have said that St. Mary's is better than Gonzaga, and Georgia (the team Gonzaga beat) is a little better than Vanderbilt. So, while that doesn't equate to the game getting out of control like the Gonzaga game, I have to handicap as if St. Mary's winning in a run-away game is the more likely event.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: St. Mary's(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: St. Mary's 59, Vanderbilt 56 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-30
After Tuesday, I would have locked this game in. The Tar Heels looked unbeatable against San Diego State. But after Louisville and Clemson both were upset today, I suddenly got some doubt about the ACC. I am going to go with my initial read (which even before Tuesday was that UNC would be one of those teams proving the committee was right in letting them play. But I am not going to put a lot on it.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: North Carolina(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Ole Miss 71, North Carolina 64 Spread: $-10 Totals: $18
I don't like anything about this game. Will Maryland play like Wisconsin did, or like Michigan did. Not to mention that Grand Canyon is a better team than many realize. I am really going to stay away from this game. I think Maryland will win the game, but with 10.5 points, I have to take Grand Canyon. I don't like betting that on such a narrow margin (basically, that I think the game will be a 5-9 point victory for the Terrapins), so I will not bet much on it.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Grand Canyon(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Maryland 81, Grand Canyon 49 Spread: $-10 Totals: $9
Norfolk State managed to play Tennessee earlier this year and only lose by 15. And so while it makes me nervous because Florida looks so good right now, I think the right choice is to take the points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Norfolk State(20) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Florida 95, Norfolk State 69 Spread: $18 Totals: $-30
Troy lost by 16 earlier this year to Arkansas. So, my tired brain says that we should take Kentucky in a blowout.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Kentucky(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Kentucky 76, Troy 57 Spread: $27 Totals: $18
I have already said my opinion about the Mountain West - and I also know that Big East schools tend to over-achieve. So, seeing Marquette with a small line and a high total value makes the Lunatic want to go crazy. Max out your bets here.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Marquette(30) Totals: Under(30)
Results: New Mexico 75, Marquette 66 Spread: $-30 Totals: $27
I am not sure about how to handicap this one. The MAC teams tend to be competitive. The Big 12 outside of Houston has been struggling a little. Lets root for an upset in a low scoring game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Akron(10) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Arizona 93, Akron 65 Spread: $-10 Totals: $27
We will keep voting against teams with losing records from the SEC. Add into it that we have a team from the over-achieving Big East, and I have to go big on the two time defending champions.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Connecticut(30) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Connecticut 67, Oklahoma 59 Spread: $27 Totals: $9
The Big 10 fan in me wants to take Illinois - I don't like betting against the team that I am rooting for. However, they have two things against them - one is that Xavier is from the dominating Big East. Add into it the momentum that First Four teams tend to have, and I have to take the Musketeers
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Xavier(20) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Illinois 86, Xavier 73 Spread: $-20 Totals: $27
Bryant played St. John's earlier in the year and lost by 22, and I think Michigan State is a very similar team. I will take the Spartans here.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan State(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Michigan State 87, Bryant 62 Spread: $18 Totals: $-20
I feel that this game will play out very similar to the Purdue / High Point game. A very talented mid-major team that will hang around for most of the game but will run out of steam at the end of the game. Add into it that Liberty doesn't have a lot of games against Top 50 teams, and I will take my chances that the Ducks win this one.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Oregon(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Oregon 81, Liberty 52 Spread: $18 Totals: $-20
This game features two teams that I felt should have been ranked a lot higher than they were. The Big East always over-achieves in the tournament, but I can't stop any think about the fact that Louisville was ranked 10th by the polls and the committee ranked them 29th. If we were looking at a 4 seed vs. a 7 seed, we would normally be excited to get a 2.5 point line. I am still going to take the Cardinals, but I think the line is right that this will be a fantastic game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Louisville(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Creighton 89, Louisville 75 Spread: $-10 Totals: $18
Purdue has definitely been struggling as of late, but I also find that teams like High Point who have not played any power conference teams usually get surprised. I suspect the Boilermakers come out ready to fix their defense and do well against High Point.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Purdue(20) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Purdue 75, High Point 63 Spread: $18 Totals: $18
The couple of times that Montana played against teams like Oregon and Tennessee, they lost by more than 30 points. While 17 is a pretty large ask, I suspect that Wisconsin's defense can stop the Grizzlies to let them run away.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Wisconsin(10) Totals: Under(30)
Results: Wisconsin 85, Montana 66 Spread: $9 Totals: $27
This line is assuming that SIU will not be able to score any points against Houston's vaunted defense. However, that suggests the score will be 77-49. It is tough to keep any team under 50, especially if the game is a blowout. And obviously, while SIU-Edwardsville is a 16 seed, it is still tough to beat a tournament team by 30. I am going to lean that Houston jumps out big, and then it accidentally increases the pace of the game to get the over.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: SIU-Edwardsville(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Houston 78, SIU-Edwardsville 40 Spread: $-20 Totals: $-30
Obviously, Auburn is going to win this game. But I suspect that the Tigers take their foot off the gas before winning by 32 points. Not to mention Alabama State played against Missouri, SMU, Cincinnati and LSU and did not lose by 32 points in those games.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Alabama State(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Auburn 83, Alabama State 63 Spread: $18 Totals: $-10
I was sure before today that McNeese was the best chance of a 12+ seed to upset someone. And that had nothing to do with Clemson - it was simply that McNeese was really good. Then, of course, their coach screwed up everything by signing to be NC State's next coach. With 7.5 points, I have to still go with my initial pick. But I am no longer as confident of what will happen in this game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: McNeese(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: McNeese 69, Clemson 67 Spread: $9 Totals: $18
Everything tells me that I should take the team that went 14-6 in the Big 12. BYU is an excellent team. Yet, how can I resist picking the local Richmond team. So, this is my flier - I always feel that you should never bet against a team you want to win. Go Rams!!!
Lunatic Picks - Spread: VCU(10) Totals: Under(20)
Results: BYU 80, VCU 71 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-20
This is a tough game to predict. The statistics say that Gonzaga is a top 10 team, which is not something the Lunatic believes. Georgia is a team that has the capability of beating Florida, St. John's and Kentucky and yet lose enough games to have a losing record in the SEC. While Georgia might surprise me, teams with losing records in power conferences tend to do poorly in the tournament.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Gonzaga(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Gonzaga 89, Georgia 68 Spread: $9 Totals: $18
Wofford lost by 51 to Duke, and Tennessee tends to beat teams from the smaller conferences by over 20. So, I will take the Volunteers.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Tennessee(10) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Tennessee 77, Wofford 62 Spread: $-10 Totals: $18
So much has been made about the possibility of Rick Pitino and John Calipari in the second round. But while the Jayhawks have struggled this year, Bill Self is still a Hall of Fame coach as well. And I am going to continue to go on my plan that the SEC teams with losing records will struggle in the tournament.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Kansas(10) Totals: Under(10)
Results: Arkansas 79, Kansas 72 Spread: $-10 Totals: $-10
I was torn on if Yale would be able to pull the upset against Texas A&M. It is tough for a team to be Cinderella two years in a row - Yale isn't sneaking up on anyone this year. And the Aggies are a very good team. But if I was debating if the upset can happen, I have to take Yale if I am going to also get 7.5 points.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Yale(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Texas A&M 80, Yale 71 Spread: $-20 Totals: $27
I am hedging my bet here - as witth the last game, I was debating about Drake being able to make the upset - and I get 6 points to go with it. Missouri's offense either blows up and scores close to 100 points, or flames out. They are very inconsistent. So, I will hedge my bet. I think Drake will control the game and slow things down. But if Missouri wins, it will be because their offense goes crazy.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Drake(20) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Drake 67, Missouri 57 Spread: $18 Totals: $-10
I also typically have a rule in March to never take a Mountain West team. Until the conference proves me wrong, I take the other team no matter what. UCLA is a really good basketball team, and I only need to spot Utah State 5.5 points. So, I will take the Bruins.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: UCLA(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: UCLA 72, Utah State 47 Spread: $27 Totals: $18
The one comparison point that I have is that Omaha lost by 32 to Iowa State and St. John's just won all 3 of their Big East tournament games by 16+ points. I suspect that the Red Storm will crush run away from Omaha in a similar way.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: St. John's(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: St. John's 83, Omaha 53 Spread: $27 Totals: $18
I think that UC San Diego is a really good team and is good enough to beat anyone. But Michigan just won the Big 10 tournament, and I only need to give 2.5 points against a team which the only tournament teams they played were close games to Utah State and San Diego State. The odds say this is a great opportunity to take Michigan.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Michigan(30) Totals: Over(10)
Results: Michigan 68, UC San Diego 65 Spread: $27 Totals: $-10
UNC Wilmington lost by 18 in a high scoring game to Kansas. Texas Tech is obviously better than the Jayhawks, so I feel like they will be able to do the same thing.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Texas Tech(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: Texas Tech 82, UNC Wilmington 72 Spread: $-20 Totals: $27
I don't know much about the 16 seeds, but it looks like Mt St. Mary's has victories over George Washington and Miami FL, which would be slightly better victories than what American has. I will take Mt St. Mary's in a close game.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Mount St Mary's(20) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Mount St Mary's 83, American 72 Spread: $18 Totals: $18
I might regret locking this but I feel like I have to put my money where my mouth is. I hated the fact that the committee would even be considering a 6-12 SEC team instead of a 13-7 Big East team. And while the Longhorns looked great in the SEC tournament, Xavier almost upset Marquette in the Big East tourney. Last year, everyone talked about things like NET in why only a few Big East schools made the tournament, and then all they did was win. I am going to take the team that had a winning record from the conference that tends to over-perform in the tournament.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Xavier(30) Totals: Under(20)
Results: Xavier 86, Texas 80 Spread: $27 Totals: $-20
St Francis PA had a great conference tournament run to get to the tournament despite a losing record. Alabama State plays in a slightly weaker conference but did better in it. They also have the best victory of the two teams - an 18 point victory over Summit champion Omaha. I am going to take a chance that St Francis used up all their magic in their conference tournament, and that Alabama State will win.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: Alabama State(30) Totals: Over(20)
Results: Alabama State 70, St Francis PA 68 Spread: $-30 Totals: $-20
At the moment, North Carolina is the talk of the tournament, and not in a good way. So many conspiracy theories are out there on how North Carolina does not belong in the tournament. And yet, the Vegas Sportsbooks, whose job is to make money by setting realistic betting lines, has the Tar Heels as a 5 point favorite. What I do know is that teams that get tons of negative press going into the tournament tend to go on a run proving all the critics wrong. I am locking in that UNC will speed the game up to cover the over. Not as sure about the 5 point line, but we will take the Tar Heels.
Lunatic Picks - Spread: North Carolina(20) Totals: Over(30)
Results: North Carolina 95, San Diego State 68 Spread: $18 Totals: $27
