For today’s viewing guide, it is this simple. If you can not find a good college basketball game on the television today, it is because you haven’t turned the TV on.

There are 25 games today. 15 of those games, starting off as we speak in Vermont, the winner will have earned their place in the NCAA Tournament. Today’s winner will be rewarded well for their efforts of a long championship week.

At 1 pm, we get to see if Texas A&M and Indiana can continue their desperate runs to the party. The Aggies will have to get through 15th ranked Arkansas, while the Hoosiers have to upset 24th ranked Iowa. Or you could tune in to the Atlantic 10 semi-final as St. Louis (now up to 60th in the NET rankings) can knock off regular season champion Davidson (43rd in the NET rankings)

At 3 pm, we get to see a battle at the top of the rankings. The second SEC semi-final gets to have 5th ranked Kentucky try to show they deserve a top seed in a huge battle against 9th ranked Tennessee

30 minutes later, my Boilermakers play against Michigan State. The Spartans are probably in the tournament, but getting to the Big 10 final will make their Sunday a lot more comfortable. At the same time, the Atlantic 10 has bid-stealer Richmond (who knocked off VCU yesterday) playing against Dayton (who at 54th in the NET rankings is trying to stay in the bubble conversation). Wouldn’t it be fun to watch Dayton just make it into the field and have to play on their home court in a First Four game!!!

5 pm has the final semi-final of the day – and it is a big one for the Bubble – as SMU (42nd in NET) plays against Memphis (31st in NET) in the other American conference semi-final.

And then the finals begin!

6 pm sees the Big 12 championship with #6 Kansas playing against #14 Texas Tech. I would not be surprised if the Jayhawks are a #1 seed if they win this game. If you would rather see two bubble teams play, check out the Mountain West final as Boise State battles San Diego State. Both teams have NET rankings that would traditionally get a power conference team into the tournament – but the Mountain West has been burned in the past.

6:30 pm is the Big East championship – where #8 Villanova tries to end Creighton’s run to try to take the decision out of the committee’s hands. Creighton’s Big East tourney run has moved them up from 66th to 55th in the NET rankings, but they will be a lot more comfortable if they can win tonight.

At 8:30 pm, the ACC and Conference USA tip-off. In the ACC, we have a similar story to Creighton – where Virginia Tech has made their case for a bubble at-large bid, but one more victory against 7th ranked Duke. Could the Hokies ruin Coach K’s final ACC tournament with an upset. Meanwhile, UAB (49th in the NET rankings) plays against Louisiana Tech in Conference USA. Their game is more dire, as non-power conference teams near 50 don’t always land on the right side of the bubble.

And at 9 pm, the Pac 12 has two locks playing for pride and seeding – as 2nd ranked Arizona goes against 13th ranked UCLA. And if that doesn’t do it for your basketball viewing, the Southland (Texas A&M – Corpus Christi vs SE Louisiana) and the WAC (Abilene Christian vs New Mexico State) will be in the second half of their finals. Or you could stay up super late and watch the Big West championship tip-off at 11:30 pm between CSU Fullerton and Long Beach State.

So there you have it – a little bit of bubble drama to wrap up, mid-major regular season champs fighting to protect their ticket to the dance, and even game with two top 10 teams playing each other. Championship Saturday has it all – all you need to do is turn on the television.

Enjoy the games!!!

Indiana started the day off by beating Big 10 regular season co-champs Illinois. Shortly after that, fellow bubble team Texas A&M took out #4th ranked Auburn in the SEC. In the Big East, #11th Providence got blown out of the water by Creighton 85-58.

Smaller conferences felt the upsets harder. Conf USA regular season champ North Texas lost in an ugly game to Louisiana Tech 42-36. MAC regular season champ Toledo lost by 8 to Akron. Unlike Illinois and Auburn, those losses likely mean North Texas and Toledo are heading to the NIT. North Texas possibly might make it on the bubble, but I don’t see the committee letting them in after only scoring 36 on Louisiana Tech.

And just now Michigan State upset the other Big 10 regular season co-champ Wisconsin 69-63. Hearing the announcer say that this was the 4th straight upset based on seed (technically Iowa was the 5 seed as they beat 4 seed Rutgers) made me very nervous as my Boilers prepare next to play against 11 seed Penn State.

Looks like Duke is going to survive a scare against Miami FL, and Kentucky appears to be in a battle in the first half against Vanderbilt. And not all the best teams are losing – Kansas just beat a really tough TCU team by 13. But still, Friday has been both a good and bad day for the bubble.

It has been great because bubble teams are winning their games and making their conference semi-finals and finals. But it is bad because with so many bubble teams winning and potentially even stealing an auto-bid (Creighton might already be in – but one more win ensures it), the teams that did not take advantage in the last few days might see themselves on the wrong side of the bubble Sunday evening.

Well – my Boilers about to play – hope they do well tonight.

Not going to write a lot but you can not go wrong today no matter what game you watch.

The Big 10, SEC, American and Atlantic 10 all start their quarterfinals – whether you want to watch the Power Conferences or the Mid-majors.

The Big 12 still have some intrigue as TCU and Oklahoma will see if they can move on to the Championship against the Locks of Kansas and Texas Tech

The Pac 12 should be fun – Colorado tries to make their case for being on the bubble against Arizona while USC and UCLA battle it out.

The Big East has Creighton against Providence and Villanova against UConn.

From a bubble perspective, there might not be any more important semi-finals than the Mountain West. The games are super late but if you have insomnia tonight, watch Wyoming and Boise State start at 9:30 with Colorado State and San Diego State tipping off around midnight. Any or all of these teams could make their way into the dance but being outside the Power Conferences, you know none of them will want to leave it in the Committee’s hands. Win 2 more games and you don’t have to worry.

I have no clue when I am going to do my bracketology – so many good games to watch!!! Enjoy the games!

I mentioned in my morning rant about today’s games that I would not mind if Karma provided Michigan a loss in Coach Howard’s return due to his horrible sportsmanship at Wisconsin that earned him a 5 game suspension. Karma must have been listening, and sometimes she can be awfully cruel.

Michigan didn’t simply lose the game. No – that is not how Karma works. Karma allowed the Wolverines to jump out to a 60 – 43 lead on the Hoosiers with about 13 minutes to play. And then Indiana, a team who had lost 7 of their last 9 games, outscored Michigan 29 – 9 for the rest of the game to upset Michigan in amazing fashion.

Meanwhile, Syracuse without their leading scorer who was suspended for punching a player in the middle of a blowout victory, played extremely competitive against #7 Duke. The Orange led by 4 at halftime and went up 79-78 when Jimmy Boeheim tipped the ball in with 3 1/2 minutes to play. That tip-in might have been the last points that Syracuse score all season, as the Blue Devils finished the game on a 10-0 run to send Syracuse home. With a 16-17 record, they are likely not even going to be invited to the NIT.

So, as you can see, it is super important to stay on Karma’s good side. Play the game with passion but with good sportsmanship. If you don’t, you never know if you will be next on Karma’s list. Thank you, Karma, for showing yourself today – please let me stay on your good side. You are wise, wonderful, and powerful.

Most of the major conferences are getting started with their 2nd round or quarterfinals. Which means you have a lot of bubble teams playing each other.

The day starts off with a bang – as we get to see Michigan and Indiana battle it out in the Big 10. The Hoosiers definitely need this game more than the Wolverines at this point, but it will be interesting to see if Michigan plays with extra passion having Coach Howard back (as you can tell from my rant from yesterday, I will not be upset if Karma comes and leads Indiana to a victory – and I am a Purdue fan, so that tells you how much I hate the whole bad sportsmanship piece).

The SEC will be starting off with Florida and Texas A&M, as Florida has been trying to hang on to their bubble spot while Texas A&M has surged into the conversation with some big victories towards the end of the season.

The Big 12 starts off with TCU vs. Texas. This is a chance for the Horned Frogs to get one more big win on their resume against a top 25 team.

And it isn’t even 2 pm yet!!!! For those who have to work (including the Lunatic), don’t you worry. Thursday evening has games for you to watch as well.

The ACC will have Virginia Tech, who survived last night off a buzzer beater, going against Notre Dame – with the ACC bubble picture so murky, both teams really could use this game.

You have an interesting bubble candidate in the Big 12 from Oklahoma. The Sooners are still in the picture but they are 7-11 in the brutal conference play. The bracket didn’t give them any favors either, as they drew Baylor, who looks like they might be one of the 4 top seeds next week. Beating the Bears might help the Sooners get that one high profile victory they need, but can a 7-12 team in conference really make it if they lose.

If you want to check out some games of really good teams that you probably didn’t know about, check out the Mountain West tournament today. Their big bubble match is Wyoming vs UNLV. Wyoming had been ranked in the Top 25 recently, but they have stumbled recently to make this quarterfinal a huge game for them.

I am also still curious about the middle of the Pac 12. If you listen to the experts (who might be right), there is no bubble in this conference. Arizona, UCLA, and USC are safely in – and might all be playing late into March. And then that’s it. So, I am interested if some of those teams with NET rankings in the high 60s and 70s can make a run – especially in the quarter-final between Oregon and Colorado today.

And of course, the people here in Richmond will probably be excited for the final ACC match up between North Carolina and Virginia.

There might be a few better games than what I have mentioned. To be honest, if you want to watch great basketball, you can probably just turn on the Big 12 tournament and leave it on all day. But there is only so much time before work to blog!!!!

I have updated the Bracketology page with a listing of the conferences auto-bids, top NET teams from the one-bid conferences, and teams that based on their standings in the polls and NET rankings are either locks for the dance or playing desperately for a chance to continue their season. After today’s games, we will probably be able to better rank those bubble teams’ chances.

Enjoy the games!!!!

I read in the media that the ACC is going to be really interesting to watch the bubble teams play. But one of the better anticipated games between Wake Forest and Miami FL isn’t going to happen. Only problem is that Wake Forest needed to beat 13-19 Boston College to make that happen, and the Eagles had other plans. They managed to make Wake Forest’s wait until Sunday a very nervous one by upsetting the Demon Deacons in overtime.

Virginia Tech almost made it back to back bubble teams to lose in overtime today, but Darius Maddox hit a three pointer at the buzzer in overtime to give the Hokies a one point victory over Clemson.

In the Big East, Xavier lost this afternoon to Butler in overtime. The Musketeers have now lost 8 of their last 10 games (and one of those victories was against struggling Georgetown). They might have gone from being ranked in early February to the NIT tournament.

In mid-major heartbreak, Iona (25-6) lost in the MAAC quarterfinals to 14-18 Rider. Especially with Rick Pitino being the head coach, many felt that the Gaels had the type of team that could win a game in the Dance (they beat Alabama by 4 earlier this year). Now, I suspect Iona is heading to the NIT.

And that was just the start of the major tournaments. Thursday will see the quarterfinals for many leagues – it should be a great day of basketball as we get to see which bubble teams are going to make one final push to convince the committee they should be dancing.

Enjoy Thursday’s games!!!!

It is late – and I still haven’t started my bracketology. But maybe that will work out better. I probably will have better results if I have less time to analyze my decisions.

But before I head to sleep, I have to congratulate Gonzaga and South Dakota State for winning their conference championships. And lets do a very quick article about what to watch for on Wednesday.

There is only one bid up for grabs tomorrow – as the Patriot league will settle their championship. Top seeded Colgate will be playing second seeded Navy to get a chance to play in the NCAA Championship.

Otherwise, Wednesday starts the beginning of the journey for the bubble teams. Many of the major conferences are seeing their opening rounds, and setting up games that might not boost their resume if they win but certainly could pop their bubble if they lose.

A few games that I am interested in are in the ACC with Virginia Tech playing Clemson and Virginia playing Louisville. In the Big East, Xavier will try to stop their stumble to end the season and Butler. I am still fascinated with the middle of the Pac 12 – such as Oregon playing Oregon State, Washington playing Utah and Washington State playing Cal.

The real interesting bubble games will be Thursday – maybe I can get some of my bracketology page done by the time that happens. For now, going to try to go to sleep before midnight. Need to get as much sleep as I possibly can before the madness really begins.

For those of you who like me love their data almost as much as college basketball, you have probably noticed the 2022 Schedule link is already available on the site.   This is our traditional Excel spreadsheet with the standings and rankings in one worksheet and the full NCAA schedule with scores in another worksheet. I have continued with the approach that conference tournament game are counted as conference games instead of post-season games.  As we did last year, I have merged the NET rankings from the NCAA website to have the updated rankings on the spreadsheet, along with listing of records for the 4 quads. I then have used that information to validate that my records are correct. It is a relatively simple check to match the records, home records, away records and neutral court records between what the schedule data says and what was in the NET rankings, so take the data for what it is…….

The NCAA Archive site used to have this great document called Team Pages – it had a page for each team with their computer rankings (including NET, KenPom and Sagarin scores) and then all their schedule listed by quad. This isn’t as good, but the 2022 Nitty Gritty link under research actually goes to the NCAA Statistics website with a summary of key statistics about each team. If you click on one of the team’s names, it takes you to their schedule, and if you click on their NET Ranking on the schedule page, it will give you a team sheet that is similar to what they provide in the PDF. The only thing I don’t like about that is it doesn’t have all the other computer scores (the old PDF used to have KenPom and Sagarin scores for example on their team sheets). It also isn’t in one large document, which is annoying. If I find a better option, I will add information as we go……

But that does have the benefit that there is now only one file to update. No promises that I will update the Schedule Excel file every day, but wanted it to be available to everyone as early as possible. I will update as I have time throughout the week – the spreadsheet has a page that says when it is last updated.

Obviously, remember the traditional Lunatic disclaimers.  I have done some basic cleaning and quality checks that the records from the schedule I have match the official NCAA site – but there are thousands of games, and so I will not make the claim that I have checked every piece of the dataset.  To be honest, I simply check to make sure the records match – I figure if I can get lucky enough that all 347 teams have the correct records, the rest of the data is probably right. 

That being said, one really interesting thing that this file does create is a side-by-side comparison of the old RPI calculation (which my tool still calculates – as does some other webpages) vs. the new NET model that the Selection Committee is using to rank games into the quadrants.  I do think that the NET score is giving the Selection Committee a better ranking, even if I still don’t understand it.

My example for the year is Rutgers. I get that they had a tough November, but lets look at records by quad. Rutgers is 6-5 vs Quad 1, 3-4 vs Quad 2, 4-2 vs Quad 3, and 5-1 vs Quad 4. That leaves them in 76th place. Lets compare against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 5-5 in Quad 1, 5-4 in Quad 2, 6-1 in Quad 3 and 3-0 vs Quad 4. Both teams finished 12-8 in the Big 10. I get that Rutgers has those 2 extra bad losses from November. But it is hard for me to believe that Ohio State is the 22nd best team in the country, and Rutgers with the same Big 10 conference record is 76th. Regardless, I still have to think that the NET score is better than the old RPI rankings.

For those of you who are not familiar with this tradition of me doing insane data pulls to grab all this great college basketball data, I will give you some more details.

As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I pick Purdue to go far and just randomly pick the other games late Wednesday evening. 

However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort.

If you notice something terribly wrong, let me know – no promises I have time to fix it, but at least everyone will know.

Enjoy the data!!!!