I can’t believe that by the end of the weekend, we will know the 68 teams in the tournament. Championship Saturday is here!!!!

Every game today matters. Because with the exception of the Big 10, SEC, Ivy, Atlantic 10 and American conferences who play their semifinals today and their championships tomorrow, every other winner today earns an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament.

This preview will have to be quick since I still have bracketology to do as well as watch Katie’s rugby game to watch. Busy weekend!!!

The afternoon viewing is mainly the semifinals. The Big 10 tournament sees Ohio State continue their improbable run of five straight wins. But instead of wrecking through the massive Big 10 bubble, they draw my Boilermakers. Then bubble team Penn State tries to take the decision out of the committee’s hands as they play Indiana.

Local interest has VCU playing in their Atlantic 10 semifinal against St Louis, needing to likely win the tournament to dance. That winner will face the winner of Dayton and Fordham in Sunday’s championship.

The American see #1 Houston try to lock into a 1 seed in their semi against Cincinnati while bubble team Memphis goes against Tulane.

In the SEC, we start with a battle of ranked teams as Alabama takes on Missouri. Then, bubble team Vanderbilt will try to ride the success of their big quarterfinal victory over Kentucky as they take on Texas A&M.

And then starting at 6 pm, the main event begins. Everything at that point is win and you are in. And the dance card will not disappoint.

6 pm – Big 12 has a rematch of #3 Kansas and #7 Texas, while the Mountain West has #20 San Diego State vs bubble team Utah State.

6:30 pm – Big East has #6 Marquette vs #15 Xavier. Marquette probably is locked into a 2 seed as I think the 1 seed race has closed to the top 5 teams as all of them have made it to their semi-finals/finals.

7:30 pm – MAC has two 27-6 teams playing as Toledo takes on Kent State. while the MAAC sees Rick Pitino’s Iona try to defend their regular season championship against 13-19 Marist. Outside of the obvious outlier, the rest are the classic non-power champion with a good enough NET to be considered and not enough big wins to make it.

8:30 pm – ACC sees #13 Virginia vs #21 Duke as the Blue Devils are finishing the season on a winning streak, maybe getting hot at the perfect time. Conference USA see regular season champ Florida Atlantic try to not depend on their top 20 NET ranking and get the auto-bid against UAB, who is likely on the wrong end of the bubble.

9:30 pm – 26-7 UC-Santa Barbara takes on Fullerton for the Big West.

10:30 pm – Big time stakes as #2 UCLA tries to show they deserve a one seed by beating #8 Arizona for the second time in the last 8 days to claim the Pac 12 tournament.

11:30 pm – The WAC finishes the day as Southern Utah and Grand Canyon battle for a spot in the dance.

Well since I have almost called out everyone, I feel bad. Lets not leave out anyone.

11 am – America East – Vermont vs UMass – Lowell

1pm – MEAC – Howard vs Norfolk St

5:30 pm – SWAC – Grambling vs Texas Southern

And of course, the Ivy semis have Yale vs Cornell and Princeton vs Penn.

OK – so not quick. A full blown schedule of all the great games today!!!! Enjoy the games!

There is good news and bad news for teams on the bubble.  The bad news is that as of Friday, there are very few bubble teams who are still playing.  The Big 10 and SEC have a few since they are starting their quarterfinals today.  And a conference like the Pac 12 has Arizona State and Oregon since only UCLA and Arizona were considered locks to be in the field.  But for the most part, the top seeds of the major conference tournaments held form – and most of those tops seeds are locks.  The good news is that with the top seeds winning, there are likely not going to be a lot of bid stealers.

Just because the bubble teams are disappearing doesn’t mean that there isn’t great basketball.  Quite the contrary – you will see some amazing matchups in the next couple of days.  For those major conferences that made it to their championships – I will tell you when they play.  For those starting, I will just pick a couple of games – most likely bubble games.

BIG 12 – No real bubble teams here.  Iowa State technically isn’t ranked but they also have 7 victories against “Locked” teams in the field – they are in.

7 pm – #3 Kansas plays Iowa State without their head coach as they try to establish one of the 4 top seeds in the tournament.

9:30 pm – #7 Texas plays #22 TCU as the Horned Frogs try to come back from injuries to take the Big 12 tournament.

BIG EAST – The four ranked teams in the conference advanced.

6:30 pm – #6 Marquette plays #11 Connecticut – Marquette might have a back door chance at getting to the top line if Kansas, Alabama, UCLA, Houston and Purdue all lose.  UConn will certainly be a great battle.

9 pm – #15 Xavier vs #24 Creighton – should also be another fantastic game of ranked teams

PAC 12 – Bubble drama still might exist here but everyone is hoping for a rematch of the top two teams

9 pm – #2 UCLA plays Oregon – the Bruins probably get a top seed if they claim the Pac 12 title, especially if it is by beating Arizona again.

11:30 pm – #8 Arizona plays Arizona State – can Arizona get revenge on that buzzer beater from a few weeks ago that put Arizona State on the bubble.

ACC – Top 4 seeds held

7 pm – #14 Miami vs #21 Duke – the Blue Devils are playing great ball as of late.  The Hurricanes are the co-champs in the ACC – should be a great game.

9:30 pm – #13 Virginia vs Clemson – the Tigers shouldn’t probably be a bubble team – getting a victory vs. the local favorite Cavaliers should be enough to get them dancing.

MOUNTAIN WEST – Don’t count this non-power conference out.  Three of the four remaining teams are certainly in the conversation for the tournament.

9:30 pm – #20 San Diego State plays San Jose State.  The Aztecs are safely in, but they can do the bubble a favor by knocking off one of the last remaining bid stealers in San Jose State (who at 20-12 is a dangerous team).

11:59 pm – Utah State plays Boise State.  Technically both teams are on the bubble.  With both teams having 24+ wins, getting this one might be enough to punch their ticket to the dance (if they are not already in).

BIG TEN – Indiana and Maryland are already in, and Michigan State won’t get a lot of credit for ending Ohio State’s run at stealing the bid.  Leaving us with:

Noon – #5 Purdue vs Rutgers – there is an irony that the team which knocked Purdue off the #1 spot in the polls the first two times in school history is now in their way to get a 1 seed.  But this isn’t just about spoiling the Boilers season.  Rutgers is clearly on the bubble and could use this game.

6:30 pm – Northwestern vs Penn State – Penn State is really trying to make a last minute bubble case for themselves – beating Northwestern might be enough to do that (if they haven’t done enough already).

SEC – Hard to pick just 2 games here.  Tennesse and Missouri are both in, and so likely are Texas A&M and Arkansas – so lets choose the two more desperate bubble teams

1 pm – #4 Alabama vs Mississippi State – the Tide will be trying to claim one of the 4 top seeds (if they win the SEC, they will claim it).  Mississippi State could really use this one as a resume builder.

9 pm – #23 Kentucky vs Vanderbilt – Both teams have been pretty hot in February as Kentucky went from possibly not being in the tournament to ranked, and Vanderbilt went from completely not even being talked about to the bubble.  Obviously, Vanderbilt needs this one more but should be a great game.

Non-power conference games to watch

12:30 pm – CONF USA semi-final – Florida Atlantic vs Middle Tennessee State – FAU has a NET ranking in the top 20, but not a lot of wins against power conferences.  They really don’t want to fall early.

3 pm – CONF USA semi-final – North Texas vs UAB – both teams have over 24+ wins, but are in a worse boat that FAU – in the bubble conversation but no marquee wins.

1 pm – AMERICAN – #1 Houston starts their bid for a 1 seed against 16-16 East Carolina.

7 pm – AMERICAN – Memphis (23-8) tries to stay on the bubble conversation by beating UCF (18-13)

 

Oh and for our local fans who noticed, only Virginia on this list.  Don’t despair.  VCU did win on Thursday – but because of the format of the Atlantic 10 tournament, they don’t play their semi-final against Saint Louis until Saturday!  Go Rams!

We are a weekend away from the Selection Committee announcing the field – and amazing conference finals will be all over the TV for the next few days.  It is the most wonderful time of the year!!!!

So, there are still three more games involving ranked teams (#8 Arizona vs Stanford, #24 Creighton vs Villanova, and #12 Kansas St vs #22 TCU).  But the ranked teams are showing why they are locks for the tournament.

Most of the ranked teams today were playing in their conference tournament quarterfinals, and typically finding themselves up against a bubble team desperately looking for one more victory to boost their resume.

Well – the ranked teams showed today the reason that they are locks for the tournament, and the bubble teams are desperately looking for a victory to boost their resume.  So far, the ranked teams went 11-1.  Some of the games were close – including Marquette who needed overtime.  But at the end of the day, the only team to win was Iowa State to beat #10 Baylor.  It probably isn’t a coincidence that Iowa State is in my bracketology “Traditional Locks” section, as a team with a top 20 NET ranking.

The ranked teams are simply playing for seeding – it is not that they don’t want to win, but they don’t need these games like the bubble teams.  The bubble teams are playing to try to keep their season alive.  And yet, the ranked teams basically won all the games.

I am not saying some bubble teams didn’t help their cause by winning today.  But most of the time that happened was when they were playing another bubble team (like Rutgers over Michigan, Arkansas over Auburn, Oregon over Washington State, or Penn State over Illinois).

Also have to mention it has been a crazy couple of days for coaches.  Kansas’ Bill Self had to go to the emergency room for a “standard procedure” and will miss the rest of the Big 12 tournament.  While I am still angry with Self for his role in some of the cheating scandals investigated by the FBI, I certainly wish that Self has a speedy recovery and feels better soon – the reports I have read looks like he is recovering well which is great news.

Patrick Ewing will not be returning to Georgetown (which is probably long overdue as he went 75-109 over 6 seasons).  I mentioned Jim Boeheim’s retirement – but his post-game interview made it very unclear whether he was choosing to retire or whether Syracuse decided to move on with a new coach.  Which honestly, is classic Boeheim – his press conferences were always strange.  I read a couple stories today about how Boeheim is tarnishing his legacy by the way he is acting in his final days as Syracuse coach.  And I laugh and think to myself, Jim Boeheim has never seemed to care about what the press thinks – so he certainly dosen’t care now what they think about his legacy.

And then there was Texas Tech’s Mark Adams resigning after being suspended for an “inappropriate, unacceptable, and racially insensitive comment.”  Quoting the ESPN story.  “According to the school, Adams was encouraging a player to be more receptive to coaching and “referenced Bible verses about workers, teachers, parents, and slaves serving their masters.” Adams apologized to the team immediately after the comment, the school said.”  I completely agree that Adams had to lose his mind to think using a Bible verse about servitude would make a player more receptive to coaching.  But it really feels more like he will be leaving the Red Raiders because he is being pushed out by the administration for a 16-16 season.  Maybe I am a little jaded, but I suspect that Adams would be able to quote any bible scripture that he wants if Texas Tech was a top 3 team in Big 12 heading to the NCAA Tournament.  Sadly, if he was winning, he would likely be commended for his strong religious beliefs instead of being criticized for being racist.  He never should have said what he said – but if Texas Tech wants to get rid of their coach, they should be more honest about it.

OK – well, I should probably make a decision to either get some needed sleep before the madness starts, or review some of my “bubble” teams.  At a minimum, I am going to enjoy the rest of the NC State / Clemson game – which has been pretty good so far.

Quick recap for last night – Texas A&M – Corpus Christi, Colgate and Montana State punched their tickets to the dance.  The local teams had a bad night as Richmond lost to George Mason and Virginia Tech lost to NC State, probably ending their chances for the dance.  Most of the bubble teams that needed wins yesterday got them, but there were a few exceptions (which were also teams at the fringe to begin with).  The most notable is probably Wisconsin, who lost to 13th seed Ohio State and fell to 17-14 and 81st in the NET.  Worst record that I remember getting an at large is 16-14, so Wisconsin has put themselves in a very bad spot.

I think at this point that we have no one else locking up an automatic bid until Saturday.  But today is an incredible day for basketball – if you can’t find a good game, you are not trying.  16 of the top 25 play today – with most of them playing a bubble team trying to improve their resume.  You also have one game where they pair off – as at 9:30 pm in the Big 12, #12 Kansas State plays #22 TCU.  To be honest, if you want to watch great basketball, you can just turn on the TV at 12:30 pm for the first quarterfinal of the Big 12 between #10 Baylor and Iowa State, and then just leave the TV on that tournament for the other quarterfinals (#3 Kansas vs West Virginia at 3 pm, .#7 Texas vs Oklahoma State at 7 pm)

For the locals, VCU starts their Atlantic 10 tournament against Davidson at 11:30 am.  The Rams probably need to win the conference title along with their regular season title to make the tournament, so hopefully 3 big wins in the upcoming days for them.  Virginia plays in one of the best games of the day as the 13th ranked team in the country plays desperate North Carolina at 7 pm in the ACC quarterfinals.

If you want to see the top remaining teams, Big East regular champion #6 Marquette starts their quarterfinals at Noon against St. John’s (a slightly dangerous start since the Big East tournament is at Madison Square Garden where St. John’s plays from time to time at home).  And #2 UCLA plays at 3 pm in their opening quarterfinal against Colorado.

But the real drama is still at the bubble.  Here are 1 to 2 games at each time to keep in mind.

Noon – Big 10 – Michigan (17-14) vs Rutgers (18-13) – classic bubble game.  Wolverines certainly can’t afford to get to 15 losses without at least 1 or 2 more wins.  Rutgers meanwhile has been struggling and could use a win as well.

2:30 pm – Big East – #Connecticut (24-7) vs 21-10 Providence.  OK – this isn’t a bubble game – both teams are likely in.  But should be a great game.

2:30 pm – ACC – #21 Duke (23-8) vs Pitt (22-10).  To think that if Pitt had made one last basket at the buzzer against Miami, they would be the ACC #1 seed.  Now, they are a bubble team since their NET ranking is not strong (56th).  Such is the life this year in the ACC (who I think is still stronger than people think).

5:30 pm – Mt West – Nevada (22-9) vs. San Jose State (19-12) – Many of the pundits have Nevada in the tournament, but losing to a dangerous San Jose St team might hurt those chances.

5:30 pm – Pac 12 – Oregon (18-13) vs. Washington State (17-15) – This is likely two teams on the wrong side of the bubble trying desperately for a win to keep their season alive.

6:30 pm – Big 10 – Illinois (20-11) vs Penn State (19-12) – The messy Big 10 has another classic bubble game.  Illinois is safer here, so the Nittany Lions need this one more.

7 pm – SEC – Auburn (20-11) vs Arkansas (19-12) – both team that might be solidly in, or their conference records might drag them down.  Don’t want to lose this game and find out how far they could be dragged down.

9 pm – Mt West – Boise St (23-8) vs UNLV (19-12) – should be a good game in a non-power conference.

9:30 pm – Big East – #24 Creighton (20-11) vs Villanova (17-15) – Villanova has been playing great at the end of the season but probably can’t get an at large bid with 16 losses.

9:30 pm – ACC – Clemson (22-9) vs NC State (23-9) – remember when two ACC teams with 22+ wins were locks.  Not sure how both of these teams are on the bubble, and yet they are.  Clemson might need this win a little more (despite being the better seed).

And for you nightowls or folks on the West Coast, the late games give you two of the best.

11:30 pm – Pac 12 – USC (22-9) vs Arizona State (21-11) – these are two teams that have been floating around the in/out line by the pundits.  Arizona State probably needs this win more despite their recent victory over Arizona.

11:30 pm – Mt West – Utah State (24-7) vs New Mexico (22-10) – at one point, New Mexico was one of the last undefeated teams in the country.  And then they took a tumble in January and February.  Utah State has a great NET ranking but very few quad 1 wins.  Should be a critical game for both teams.

Sorry if I missed a good one – I am sure there are lots of games to keep you entertained!!!!

 

Today, Syracuse lost on a last-second shot against Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC tournament – as the Orange went 17-15 for the season.  Then, they lost their long time coach of 47 years.

Syracuse’s legendary coach announced that he is retiring and that associate head coach Adrian Autry would be taking over the team.  Boeheim won 1,116 games throughout his career, appeared in 5 Final Fours and won the 2003 national championship.  Of course, 101 of those wins were vacated as part of sanctions for NCAA rules violations between 2004 to 2007 and 2010 to 2012.  Either way, Boeheim finishes his career currently in second for all time wins by a head coach behind only Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski.

Boeheim never was shy about speaking his mind – often in ways that made me seriously dislike him (which has made its way multiple times into the blog over the years).  Considering the rules violations, I feel that dislike was fair and warranted.  But despite my feelings about things Boeheim has done off the court in press conferences (or the off the court violations that got him in trouble with the NCAA), there was never a doubt that he was one of the greatest college basketball coaches of all time.

I can’t say that I am sad that Boeheim is retiring.  But the world of college basketball is certainly losing one of its best coaches.  And for that fact alone, it is worth taking a moment away from my bubble analysis to congratulate Boeheim on a fantastic career.

Well – the late finals are not really that interesting at the moment as Oral Roberts and Gonzaga are cruising with double digit leads (think at the moment they are both over 20 points in the second half).  Congratulations go to both Northern Kentucky and College of Charleston for winning their conference’s auto-bids.

And since I made some slight progress on my selection board, we might as well do a quick preview of Wednesday now instead of falling asleep watching the Gonzaga / St. Mary’s game.  If I wake up early enough, I will update the matchups of the late semifinals.

There are three automatic bids to be decided in conference finals – no bubbles will burst thanks to a bid stealer, but definitely some higher seeds trying to win won more game to continue their season.

5 pm – SOUTHLAND – regular season champ Texas A&M – Corpus Christi (22-10) vs. 2nd seed Northwestern State (22-10)

7:30 pm – PATRIOT – regular season champ Colgate (25-8) vs. 6th seed Lafayette (11-22)

11:30 pm – BIG SKY – 9th seed Cinderella Northern Arizona (12-22)  vs winner of 2nd seed Montana St (24-9), who survived a late night double overtime 60-58 victory over 3rd seed Weber St.

For the Richmond folks, I know a lot of people care about the two local schools, UVA, and VT.  Virginia and VCU won’t start their tournaments until Thursday.  But the other two both won today – so Richmond gets George Mason (2 pm) next and Virginia Tech gets NC State (9:30 pm) in those two teams quests to win 5 games in 5 days to keep their seasons going.

For the remaining bubble teams that play on Wednesday, these tend to be the “Can’t Lose” games.  These are all the teams that didn’t win a bye/double bye in the tournaments.  But that typically also means they are playing a team not likely to make the tournament.  So, this is not the game they can afford to lose.

2:30 pm (ACC) – Pitt can’t afford a loss to Georgia Tech

5:30 pm (Big East) – Seton Hall is likely on the outside looking in, so they certainly can not afford to lose to DePaul.

6:30 pm (Big 10) – Wisconsin can not keep their losing streak alive when their opponent is Ohio State

7 pm (Mt West) – New Mexico’s late season swoon might have already knocked them out of at-large consideration, so they certainly can not afford to lose to Wyoming.

7 pm (Big 12) – While I complained about how the NET has ranked them, that doesn’t change the fact that this is clearly the best conference in the game.  West Virginia is probably locked no matter what, but it would still be better for them not to fall to Texas Tech.

7 pm (ACC) – North Carolina is desperately on the fence – they can’t afford Boston College stopping them from getting a chance at taking on Virginia.

9 pm (Pac 12) – Utah is probably too far down the NET rankings to be considered, but just in case, they certainly can’t lose to Stanford

9:30 pm (Big 12) – Oklahoma State’s resume isn’t as safe as West Virginia’s.  A loss to last place Oklahoma would put them at 17-15 which likely isn’t enough to get an at large bid – even in the Big 12.

9:30 pm (ACC) – Dangerous game for NC State as Virginia Tech is on the fringe edge of the bubble.  The Hokies are certainly good enough to give State some headaches.

11:30 pm (Pac 12) – Arizona State has possibly worked their way back into the field – so they certainly can’t slow down that momentum by losing to Oregon State

 

 

Everyone knows that I am huge fan of statistics, especially when it comes to predicting the games.  But that doesn’t mean that I can’t criticize the numbers from time to time.  And the problem that I have is all of the best rankings have the same glitch – I have a suspicion is because an over-weighting of strength of schedule but I can’t exactly put my finger on it.

The team that was creating the outlier for me was West Virginia.  But the last few games they have played have been strong.  Maybe that will come for this team as well.  But it is messing up my bracketology analysis.

That team, of course, is Arkansas.  The NET has 19-12 Arkansas as the 18th ranked team in the country.  Historically, this means that Arkansas is a lock to be in the tournament.  I think that they probably should be considered a bubble team.  The problem I have with Arkansas (and to the same extent, West Virginia) is that they are 8-10 in the SEC (for a tie for 9th in the standings).

Lets look closer at the SEC NET rankings of the teams ahead or tied with Arkansas in the standings.

2) Alabama (26-5, 16-2 – 1st) – 4th in AP

3) Tennessee (22-9, 11-7 – tied 4th) – 17th in AP

18) Arkansas (19-12, 8-10 – tied 9th)

20) Kentucky (21-10, 12-6 – 3rd) – 23rd in AP

23) Texas A&M (23-8, 15-3 – 2nd) – 18th in AP

32) Auburn (20-11, 10-8 – 7th)

46) Mississippi State (20-11, 8-10 – tied 9th)

48) Missouri (23-8, 11-7 – tied 4th) – 25th in AP

60) Florida (16-15, 9-9 – 8th)

82) Vanderbilt (18-13, 11-7 – tied 4th)

I understand that the SEC has an unbalanced schedule.  Arkansas even was probably on the wrong end of that as they had to play Alabama, Texas A&M and Kentucky twice – which is a tough schedule.  But still, Texas A&M finished 7 games ahead in the standings and is being ranked 5 positions worse than the Razorbacks.  Missouri is 3 games ahead in the standings, ranked in the 25th in the AP poll, and yet is 30 spots behind in the rankings the committee uses to rank games.

This difference is so much that when Tennessee hosted the 9th place team in the SEC, it was a Quad 1 win.  When Tennessee hosted the 4th place team in the SEC that is also ranked 25th in the polls, it was a Quad 2 loss.  Let that sink in for a second.  The big reason why Kansas is likely going to be a 1 seed is because of their 15 Quad 1 wins (more than anyone else in the country).  And yet, when Tennessee hosted a team ranked in the top 25, not only is that considered a loss, it is actually considered a bad loss since it isn’t to another Quad 1 team.

Now, Tennessee doesn’t need to worry about this being a bad loss – they are ranked in the polls and somehow 3rd in the NET.  But a team closer to the bubble like Auburn doesn’t get the same level of credit for beating a ranked team.

It might work out when you fully look at Arkansas’ schedule, that it makes sense.  When you have to play on the road at Alabama, Baylor, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Missouri, you are going to pile up some losses.  But from first look, something feels off.  And then if I can’t trust what games are Quad 1 (am I really supposed to believe that playing any road game in the Big 12 and playing at home against anyone in the Big 12 with a 9-9 conference record is considered a Quad 1 game, but playing Missouri at home is not).

I have to keep reminding myself that the committee doesn’t care about my opinion – the rankings are what they use.  And they have their own personal eye tests that I have no clue about (otherwise, I could predict them better).  But it doesn’t make me feel good.

Not a huge amount of shock Monday night. Louisiana and Furman won their conference championships. Oral Roberts, Charleston, St Mary’s and Gonzaga all won their semi-finals. Bubble teams breathed a sigh of relief as the WCC powerhouses both won.

And so Tuesday heats up with 5 championships and 4 bids on the line. That is because in the NEC, Merrimack is still in their transitional period and can not play in the NCAA tournament, so their opponent, 2nd seed Fairleigh Dickinson gets the bid.

The big game everyone wants to see is the West Coast championship at 9 pm as #9 Gonzaga squares off against #16 St. Mary’s. The Colonial has Charleston (30-3) vs UNC-Wilmington (24-9) at 7 pm. The Horizon tips off at 7 pm with Northern Kentucky (21-12) vs Cleveland State (21-12). And the other late final at 9 pm is the Summit where Oral Roberts (29-4) goes against North Dakota St (16-16).

Also, for the local Virginia fans. Richmond will hope to strike up some March magic as they start their Atlantic 10 tournament at 11:30 am vs UMass. And Virginia Tech starts off their ACC tournament hopes at 7 pm against Notre Dame.

It is still the calm of the storm. And the Lunatic has showtunes running in his head. From Hamiliton, “In the eye of the hurricane, there is quiet. For a moment. Yellow sky.”. The storm is coming. But enjoy these great games today while the calm gives you a chance.

Monday and Tuesday are the calm before the storm for the Lunatic. Its a chance for him to try some analytical methods to predict the bracket that always tend to look terrible before he desperately drops everything and spends multiple days watching conference tournament games and pouring over team pages.

But Monday and Tuesday is also nice for another reason. Because these are the days that the attention is all on the non-power conferences. None of the power conferences are playing until Tuesday, and those games are of the last place teams trying desperately to win 5 games to keep their season alive. If a bubble team is playing, they typically have to win multiple games to make it interesting to watch.

That is not the case for most of the games on Monday and Tuesday in the non-power conferences. You have a bunch of semi-finals and finals filled with teams that know their season hinges on one or two last wins.

But before we preview tonight’s slate, a couple teams earned some recognition from Sunday. In the Big South, regular season champ UNC-Asheville found themselves down 14 pts to Campbell with 7:37 to play. And then senior guard Tajion Jones lifted his team on his shoulders and led a rally, scoring 16 of UNCA’s last 25 points to lead them to a 77-73 victory.

In the Atlantic Sun, co-regular season champs Kennesaw State and Liberty met in a game that went to the wire. Liberty’s Colin Porter drilled a three-pointer with 23 seconds to play to tie the game at 66. But Kennesaw State’s Terrell Burden drove to the basket and got fouled with less than a second, hit one of the free throws, and Kennesaw State will be going to their first ever NCAA Tournament!

And while not as exciting, it was still equally impressive. In the Missouri Valley, Drake jumped out to a big lead early and cruised to a 77-51 victory over MVC regular season champion Bradley to win the Valley’s auto-bid.

Tonight, at 7 pm, there are two more auto-bids up-for-grabs. In the Sun Belt, 2nd seed Louisiana (25-7) will try to stop the upset run from 8th seed South Alabama (19-15). In the Southern conference, regular season co-champ Furman (26-7) will try to stop 7 seed Chattanooga (18-16). Will the top teams remaining win their conference tournament, or will the two Cinderella teams knock off the top 2 teams from their conference to steal the bid (as South Alabama took out Southern Miss and Chattanooga took out Samford on Saturday).

We also have some significant regular season champions playing their semi-finals. Oral Roberts (28-4, NET 42) play in the Summit semis at 7 against St Thomas. Youngstown State (24-8, NET 117) defend their regular season title in the Horizon semis at 7 against Northern Kentucky. And College of Charleston (29-3, NET 53) plays at 8:30 in the Colonial semis against Towson (21-11). Oral Roberts and Youngstown State have no Quad 1 victories so while they have 28+ wins, it is important they get 2 more victories.

But the true main event starts at 9 pm when the West Coast semis start in Las Vegas. First, #16 St. Mary’s (25-6) will take on BYU (19-14). And then, #9 Gonzaga (26-5) will take on San Francisco (20-13). If you are a fan of a bubble team, you need to be rooting for both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s to win tonight. Otherwise, there will be some very nervous fans on Tuesday hoping that BYU or San Francisco can’t steal the WCC auto-bid. And if you follow the WCC teams, we all know that while Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are clearly the best in the conference, BYU (who has beaten #24 Creighton, Dayton, and Utah this year) and San Francisco (who beat Arizona State and lost by 2 to Gonzaga earlier in the season) are both dangerous teams.

So while the power conferences might not be playing, there should be some great basketball tonight. Enjoy the games.

First, to give credit where it is due. I mistakenly said that SE Missouri St was the first team to earn an automatic bid from their thrilling overtime victory in the Ohio Valley championship.

In the Northeast conference, regular season champion Merrimack is still in their 4 year transitional period to Division I and thus are ineligible for the tournament. The NEC didn’t want to not let Merrimack participate in the tournament for doing nothing wrong other than being too new to Division I – so they made a decision that the runner-up in the tournament would advance if Merrimack wins the conference tournament.

That scenario has somewhat played out. Merrimack has advance to Tuesday’s final – so the other semi-finalist will automatically win the bid. That honor went to Fairleigh Dickinson. The 2nd seed in the NEC beat St. Peter’s by 20 to win the NEC automatic bid.

FDU is a pretty nice turnaround story. Last season they were 4-22 and fired their coach. So, first year coach Tobin Anderson took over the program and has led them to a 19-14 record and now, to the NCAA Tournament.

So, we have two teams dancing – not one. Congrats to both FDU and SE Missouri St.

Three more teams will punch their tickets today to the dance. In the Big South, regular season champ UNC-Asheville (26-7) will try to hold off 7th seed Campbell’s (16-17) upset run for the tournament.

In the Missouri Valley, the top 2 teams will play for the championship as regular season champion Bradley (25-8) will play runner-up Drake (26-7). While both teams are pretty good, neither probably has the resume for an at large bid, so this should be an exciting game from a conference known for producing Cinderella teams in the past.

Finally, in the Atlantic Sun sees its co-regular season champs play as Kennesaw State (25-8) play Liberty (26-7). Both teams finished 15-3 in conference, with Kennesaw State getting the top seed thanks to their 88-81 victory at home against Liberty. Liberty is one of the classic small conference teams – their NET ranking of 40 means that they will at least get a look from the committee if they lose today, but their 0-3 record in Quad 1 games probably will make that a very quick look before the committee removes them from the consideration list. So – once again, two teams that know their NCAA hopes rest on one final game.

The final regular season games for the American and Big Ten conferences are also today – so after today, every remaining game should be a conference tournament game. In the American, potential bubble team Memphis gets a chance for a big game as they host #1 Houston.

The Big 10 has plenty of fun. Purdue continues to try to get one of the top seeds as they host Illinois, a team that is close enough to the bubble that they could use another win. Michigan, who is much more on the bubble, travels to Bloomington to play the 15th ranked Hoosiers. We have a couple of trap games as Iowa hosts Nebraska and Wisconsin, who desperately needs a win, travels to Minnesota.

But the best two games from the Big 10 might be as 21st Maryland goes on the road to Penn State, and Northwestern heading on the road to Rutgers. Both Penn State and Rutgers desperately need a win to boost their chances, while Maryland and Northwestern are part of the 7 way tie for 2nd place who are fighting for the last 3 double byes in the conference tournament.

Lots of fun basketball. One more rugby game – go Strikers!