So, it only makes sense to talk about the elephant in the room. Over the last few years, there has been a push to increase the number of the teams in the NCAA tournament. In 2023, the NCAA created a committee called the Transformation Committee to lead their modernization efforts. Co-chaired by Greg Sankey (the SEC commissioner) and Julie Cromer (athletic director at Ohio University), they made multiple recommendations (the public version of this can be seen on the NCAA site here – DI board endorses modernization recommendations – NCAA.org.
But the one consequential one to the Lunatic was this under Championships. Expanding access to NCAA championships to include 25% of active Division I members in good standing in team sports sponsored by more than 200 schools.
This would mean that if the NCAA follows through with the recommendations from the committee, we will see an NCAA Tournament of 90+ teams in the future (personally, if you are going to do this, you need to go to 96 – have a 32 byes and their opponents are the winners of the other 64 teams).
Obviously, the Lunatic has lots of opinions about this. First of all, I have very selfish reasons that I don’t want expansion. How would this impact the Stomp the Lunatic Pool? It is fine to not pick 4 play-in games, but would it make sense to not pick 32 play-in games – that is an entire round. I am not sure I know enough JavaScript to modify the form to add another round to it (and account for the byes). And when would these games take place? If they started everything on Thursday and gave people 3-4 days to look at the bracket and make their picks, it would be fine. But there are always concerns about how long the season is – it is likely they would want to play those games on Tuesday and Wednesday like the current play-in games. Would people be able to make their picks in just 1 1/2 days? I am sure I would eventually come up with a plan – but I don’t want to have to make those types of decisions.
But there are also some really strong arguments against expansion. One of the statements by the committee is that there is access to the tournament. Well, everyone at the moment has access to the tournament – win your conference tournament. In all but a few conferences, everyone is invited. It doesn’t matter if you went 3-15 in the conference – if you can win 4-5 games in a row during the conference tournament, you get the automatic bid. At the moment, the NCAA tournament is really a 360 team tournament, that after the first 4 rounds, the NCAA decides to give 36 teams a second chance and have them play the 32 teams still remaining.
The second goes back in time to history. The lowest seed in history to win the NCAA championship is the 8 seed – when Villanova beat Georgetown in 1985. Since expanding to 64 teams, here are the seeds to win the tournament:
- 1 seed – 24 (63.2%)
- 2 seed – 5 (13.2%)
- 3 seed – 4 (10.5%)
- 4 seed – 2 (5.3%)
- 6 seed – 1 (2.6%)
- 7 seed – 1 (2.6%)
- 8 seed – 1 (2.6%)
Sure, there have been some great stories of 11 seeds making it to the Final Four – including the awesome run by the NC State Wolfpack this year. But in the last 40 years (since this year, Purdue and Connecticut are both 1 seeds), we could have made the tournament a 16 team tournament and included the actual champion 92.5% of the time.
Currently, we have 36 at large bids. The eventual champion has come from the top 32 teams seeded. Even if something crazy happens and none of the top 32 teams in the country win their conference tournament, we still have enough spots for all of those teams (plus 4 more).
Finally, there is the most important question. Do we really think these teams have a chance? If teams like Illinois and Alabama are losing by double digits to Connecticut, do I honestly think that 20-12 Oklahoma (the first team left out by the committee) that went 8-10 in their conference really has a chance. They couldn’t win 6 games in a row in their conference – but I somehow think that they can win 6 games in March when they are going to have to go through a lineup like Clemson, Baylor, Arizona, Alabama, Connecticut and then Purdue.
And more importantly, that was the 1st team out. If I don’t think that Oklahoma has a chance, do I think that the 82nd ranked team in the NET has a shot (by the way, that was 16-17 Maryland). So, more bluntly, do I really want a team that didn’t even win half their games during the season in the tournament. The goal of people like Greg Sankey is to get as many teams from his power conference in the tournament as possible. Maybe Julie Cromer as the athletic director of a school from the MAC was hoping that a few of those extra spots would fall to the mid-major teams, but lets face it – that is not how it would work.
Of course, I can also think of some reasons to expand. Lets say that they increased to 80 teams like Sankey suggested before this years tournament as a starting point. And lets look at the 12 highest teams in the NET that got left out. Those would be:
- Indiana State (28, 27-6)
- St John’s (32, 20-13)
- Cincinnati (37, 20-14)
- Pitt (40, 22-11)
- Villanova (41, 18-15)
- Wake Forest (43, 20-13)
- Oklahoma (46, 20-12)
- Utah (48, 19-14)
- Ohio State (49, 20-13)
- Princeton (55, 22-4)
- Bradley (57, 21-11)
- Providence (58, 21-13)
So, in theory, by expanding to 80, we would see 3 more mid-major schools (in this example, Indiana St, Princeton and Bradley) join some of the snubbed teams like Oklahoma, St. John’s and Pitt thanks to the expansion. Other than my outlier of Seton Hall (who is 67th in the NET – not sure how the 4th place team in the Big East finished 67th in the NET – might be an analysis for another evening when I have more time), all the teams (like Indiana State) that we have been complaining about being snubbed would now be in the tournament. Of course, we would always say a team was snubbed – this just moves the list down (now instead of Indiana State and St. John’s being snubbed we are talking about Virginia Tech and UCF being snubbed…)
There is also the reality that maybe expanding the tournament will make some of the first round games more competitive – to make an expanded tournament work, you would have to start having at large teams playing the small conference auto-bids. Providence probably has a better chance of giving Arizona a close game than Long Beach State. I would rather see Long Beach State get their chance, but I am not naive enough to believe that Providence has a better chance to keep the game close or even pull the upset.
In a way, that is a strength and a weakness. Those games might produce a few more upsets if teams like Providence are ending up as 14 or 15 seeds. But it is a single elimination tournament. Those upsets do ruin chances for legitimate tournament contenders to have an off-game and leave early. When it is Long Beach State, it seems exciting. I can’t get as excited about a struggling major conference team to pull that upset.
The last strength is that these things always work out. The first year that the tournament expanded from 65 to 68 teams was 2011. And I am sure there were lots of comments around we don’t need 3 more teams – those teams likely don’t have a chance to win the whole thing. And sure enough, that very year, 11 seed VCU went on a streak that took them all the way to the Final 4. If those 3 extra spots didn’t exist, VCU wouldn’t even be playing that year.
And of course, this year, NC State showed that an 11 seed is certainly capable of making a run to claim the title. If they got this far, there is certainly the possibility that they could have won 2 more games.
This year also had the worst-case scenario where so many of the teams that won the conference tournaments were teams that the Selection Committee was not planning on selecting. Those teams earned their bid by winning their conference tournament. But it did mean the pool of at-large teams then shrunk as teams like North Carolina and Arizona now needed an at-large spot to play.
Lets face it – expansion is probably inevitable. With all the buzz that Indiana State and Seton Hall shouldn’t have been playing in the NIT championship since they should have been in the NCAAs, and teams like NC State making the Final Four and other 11 seeds like Oregon winning a game in the tournament, there will be a desire to include more of those types of teams.
But if we are going to do it, I would include a few rules. If we go to 80, we now have 48 at large bids to give.
- The top 6 mid-major conference regular season champions (in the mind of the committee) that don’t win their conference tournament get an at-large bid. That would likely be some combination of Utah State, Indiana State, Princeton, South Florida, Richmond, Appalachian State (25-6), UC-Irvine (23-9), High Point (23-8).
- The top 4 teams in the major conferences (now just the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big 10 and SEC) based on the standings automatically get an at-large bid if they need it. This would mean that at least this year, Pitt and Seton Hall would have got a bid.
- In order for a team with a losing record in the conference to be considered, all the teams at least 2 games above them in the standings must be already in the field. This gives the chance for a team with a big non-conference win to get credit for it (since it doesn’t count in the conference standings). But it also places weight on the regular season.
- I am good with setting an expectation that the conference tournament can’t hurt you according to the above rule, but can help you get out of it. Basically, what this would do is allow a 9-9 team who gets beat by another 9-9 team to still be eligible and not caught by the losing record rule because they are now 9-10. But it would allow a school like NC State who was 9-11 in conference to make it to the championship game before losing and no longer worry about this rule (since they would be 13-12)
That being said, if we are really going to expand, I would try to solve multiple problems with what I think is a great plan.
Expand the tournament to 96 teams. 32 teams will get byes.
- Any regular season champion from the 5 power conferences are guaranteed a bye.
- Any team that wins both their regular season and conference tournament are guaranteed a bye.
- If there is room, any team winning the conference tournament of a power conference are guaranteed a bye.
- If there is still room, the committee will select the remaining best teams to get the remaining byes.
Any regular season champion that does not win their conference tournament is guaranteed one of the remaining 64 at-large bids. I can be persuaded to figure out a rule that a regular season champ must satisfy (such as having won 20 games or finishing in the top 150 in the NET) – but it needs to be inclusive. If we are talking about expanding to give more access, the teams that deserve that access the most are the ones who won their regular season title.
The 64 teams not getting a bye play each other – the winner obviously advances to play one of the teams that have a bye, the losers will play in the NIT tournament. A requirement to accept the bid into the tournament is being willing to continue to play if you lose your first round game.
By expanding to 80-96 teams, you are essentially eliminating the worthy pool of teams that go to the NIT. But the NIT is a worthy part of college basketball history that should continue in some format. This allows the teams that would traditionally go to the NIT to still participate. It will also make it so that teams can not decline the invitation.
It is too late at the moment to come up with what this would have looked like this year, but I might have to do that after the tournament is over (since my mind tomorrow will simply be on my Boilers). I might need to come up with a few more rules to create fairness.
But if we expanded in this way, we would do a few things:
- Save the NIT, which would probably die if the NCAA tournament is expanded to 80 teams. All the teams that are hosting first round games would now be in the NCAA, and it would leave only smaller schools, which will hurt any TV ratings.
- Guarantee access to regular season champions – there should be some reward for being the best team in your conference over 18 games.
- Possibly produce better matchups in the 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, and 3 vs 14 games. It is one thing for a 6th place team to win their conference tournament and end up as a 15 seed. But in this new expansion, they will have to beat someone else for the right to play against the 2 seed.