So, as a Purdue fan, it only makes sense that I was watching the Big 10 semi-final while working on my bracketology. And it reminded me of the Arizona vs. Iowa State game. One of the favorites is tied with the clock running down between Wisconsin and Michigan and a star player ends the game.

Under a minute to play with the game tied, Elliot Cadeau hits a three-pointer to give the Wolverines the lead. But the Badgers were going nowhere – they marched right down the court, got the ball to Nick Boyd, and he promptly ties the game back up with 30 seconds to play. The Badgers are playing pretty solid defense, and it suddenly looks like Michigan might not even get a shot off. And then Cadeau finds Yaxel Lendeborg deep behind the three-point line, and the Michigan star drains the three-pointer to give Michigan the win.

With 20-30 minutes in between games, I looked to see if something else was on, and I ran across the Atlantic 10 semi-final between St. Louis and Dayton. And if you thought the Big 10 game was exciting, this game was just completely wild.

Dayton finds themselves down 3 points with about 30 seconds left when Keonte Jones drives to the basket and gets fouled. Jones would hit both free throws to cut St. Louis’ led to one. Dayton sets up their press, and the Billikens can’t get the ball in-bounds before getting a five second violation to turn it over.

The Flyers get the ball into Javon Bennett who drives to what looks like it will be a layup, but St. Louis comes from behind and blocks the shot off the backboard. In the ensuing scramble for the ball, Jones picks it up and passes it out to Jacob Conner, who drills a deep three-pointer to give the Flyers a 2 point lead with just 11 seconds left.

Amari McCottry rushes the ball up the court for the Billikens and finds Robbie Avila at the top of the key, who drills a three-pointer with a little around 4 seconds left to give the lead back to the Atlantic 10 regular season champions.

Dayton doesn’t call time-out – instead they quickly in-bound the ball to Jordan Derkack, who wildly drives the lane and throws up a prayer of a lay-up, which looked more like he was hoping to draw a foul. The referees would not be bailing him out – instead, it was center Amael L’Etang who tips the wild layup attempt that never hit the rim towards the rim, and it goes in with 0.4 seconds left in the game.

Dayton got lucky as the bench erupted including a player who went to hug L’Etang on the court – which could have been called as a technical foul since the game was not over. But the referees calmed everyone down and gave St. Louis a timeout to plan their last ditch prayer. But Quentin Jones’ three-quarter court shot would only graze the backboard, and the Dayton Flyer upset the regular season champs of the Atlantic 10.

And so the bubble likely shrinks by a team, or at a minimum, St. Louis falls onto the bubble. I think the Billikens are probably still in but you just never know what the committee will do. Meanwhile, the local VCU Rams, who are also on the bubble now have to feel like they are the favorites if they can win their semi-final against St. Joseph’s.

If you went to Hollywood and asked them to make up a fairy-tale ending, I am pretty sure no one comes up with that finish. So, bubble teams get more nervous as it looks like the Atlantic 10 will get at least 2 teams.

I should thank my wonderful wife Elizabeth for reminding me – since I could have forgotten with all the championship games happening today. But it is Pi Day!!!! So, go have your favorite type of pie (whether it be pizza, dessert, or simply a mathematical constant) to celebrate the second best mathematical constant date according to the Lunatic. Since Elizabeth and I by good fortune were married on Mole Day, that will always be my favorite day.

The long awaited box scores / schedule / net rankings Excel file has finally been loaded to the website. If you go to the Research link on the menu, you will see that the 2026 Schedule File is now available. The typical disclaimer is there. My process checks to see that the records (by site and by quad) match what is on the NCAA NET Rankings page.

For those of you who wonder why I do this each year, here is the brief story. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games – some with tons of success. Bill Kahn had been near the top of the standings multiple years by building Bradley-Terry models. And our 2006 champion, David Shaddick, won by using a model he created with this data for a stats training course at work for analysts. At the end of the day, good statistical techniques can be used to do a great job of forecasting the game – even if it doesn’t capture all the strange possibilities that can happen.

I will apologize in advance. Since I had to change to using the ESPN data and I have so many other things to do before Selection Sunday, there are format differences in variable names and team names from past years. Hopefully, that will not mess up the modelers too much, but you will have to do some extra research into the data.

But considering how behind I am, it seemed like such an appropriate way of celebrating Pi Day – by providing everyone the gift of data!!!!

As always, if you notice any issues with the data, please let me know!!! Enjoy the data!!!

And the nightmare situation for the selection committee has hit. With 50 seconds left, Miami(OH) tied their game with Massachusetts at 81 when Peter Suder hit a step-back jumper. But the Minutemen would take the lead back as they got the ball down low into Daniel Hankins-Sanford , who strongly muscled his way in to a lay-up with 29 seconds left.

The Redhawks had been in so many close games this season that you figured they would pull it out. They got the ball to Luke Skaljac at the top of the key when the defender trying to cut off the pass slipped. So Skaljac changed his mind to drive to the hoop and took a dribble back to take a three-pointer. But before he could shoot it, the defender recovered and so Skaljac decided to pass the ball instead. The indecision cost him as the pass was intercepted by Marcus Banks Jr.

Banks then calmly over the next 20 seconds hit the 4 biggest free throws of his life and UMass handed Miami (OH) their first loss of the season.

So, does a team that went 31-0 in the regular season, with a NET ranking of 54th, no wins against Quad 1 teams, and just lost to 204th ranked UMass still get an at-large bid. Personally, I think they have to be in the tournament – the regular season has to mean something. Any team that goes 31-0 clearly has the talent to win a game in the tournament.

But I am not the person handing out tickets to the dance. The Selection Committee is the one who has to make that decision – and it will be hotly debated in the media and in their conference room about should a team be rewarded for winning all their games if they do it against no teams that would play in the tournament. I don’t envy either the Selection Committee or the Miami (OH) team and fans.

The MAC has stolen a bid from the bubble. The big question is whether they have stolen it from a struggling power conference team or from their regular season champion.

As always, the bubble has created some unexpected results. With a bid on the line, teams like Texas and Indiana lost to teams with losing records and thus, nothing to lose. There were also some great games like UCF’s overtime victory over Cincinnati. And of course, congratulations to McNeese, Lehigh and Idaho for winning their conference tournaments to book their tickets to the dance!

While I haven’t fully checked, today is going to be a great day of basketball. 15 of the top 25 teams will be playing today, many of them for the first time. So, if you are a bubble team and made it this far, you now get your chance to make your impression. Instead of playing in a game where it would be considered a bad loss, you now are likely playing a team that might catch the committee’s attention if you win.

But you still need to win!!!!

I was going to pick a game from each time range but I just can’t. Look at the choices to make just from the noon games.

• In the ACC, we get #10 Virginia playing NC State – as Virginia looks to see if they can sneak into the conversation for a 2 seed while NC State tries to continue to strengthen their resume and move off the bubble – they are probably safe but a victory over Virginia probably seals the deal.
• In the Big 10, Iowa and Ohio State play in a game that both teams would like to have since it would be a win over a fellow bubble team. Once again, both are probably safe. That might be a better game to pick since it is two bubble teams instead of one.
• In the SEC, we have Kentucky and Missouri – the Tigers need this win more than the Wildcats thanks to their weaker NET ranking, but both are high quality teams that can make a run – that certainly must be the best game of the timezone.
• In the Big 12, we have #7 Iowa State vs #16 Texas Tech – so now we have two games between teams that both might be protected top 4 seeds in the tournament – that should be an incredible game!!! Why watch two bubble teams play when we could watch a game that could easily be a preview of an Elite 8 regional final.

There is so much to choose from today. You can’t go wrong. Whether you want to follow a small conference bid stealer, such as the days kick-off at 11 am where undefeated Miami(OH) tries to protect their spot by beating Massachusetts in the MAC or you want to follow any of the fantastic games in the power conferences, Thursday has you covered.

Enjoy the games!!!

I was going to write a viewing guide for today when I realized it would simply be too long. Everyone can go to ESPN or CBS or FOX and look up the television schedule for the day, and if I was to talk about what games I want to see, I would need to create a post that simply copies that entire schedule.

The power conferences have all begun their tournaments either yesterday or today. If I counted correctly, 18 games today involve teams that were listed in my bracketology page as bubble teams that are not locks for the tournament. These teams are not going to punch their ticket to the dance today, but they could certainly create a bad lasting impression if they lose.

The truth is fans feel that the tournaments are more important than they probably are. The honest answer is all the tournaments do is give every team a path to the NCAA Championship – so to be fair, they still mean a lot. But if you don’t claim you automatic bid, the fans put more weight on the games than the committee.

We think that if a bubble team loses early, they are eliminating themselves while if a bubble team gets to the semi-finals, they have earned their bid – of which neither are completely true.

Lets take Stanford’s heartbreaking loss to Pitt yesterday on a crazy tip-in at the buzzer. It is easy to say because they ended poorly that they are going to not make it. But the committee does a good job of viewing every game as a single game. Stanford still has victories over Q1 teams like UNC, Louisville, SMU, Virginia Tech and St. Louis (which is a lot more than fellow bubble teams). All it does is it gives them a bad Q3 loss. But it is the same as if they had lost to Pitt in January. The committee doesn’t care that they lost in March. They might care that they have 4 Q3 losses (Pitt, Notre Dame, UNLV and Seattle) that might be more than other bubble teams. Stanford is the classic bubble team – an inconsistent team that can beat UNC or Louisville one day and lose to Seattle the next.

We can also take a hypothetical win streak. Lets say the Big East top part of the bracket blows up and Butler or Providence upsets St. John’s and super bubble team Seton Hall takes advantage and beats Creighton and Butler to make the Big East championship before getting crushed by UConn. Fans want to believe that Seton Hall has done enough to earn their spot because they made it to the final. But here is the problem – Seton Hall’s biggest blemish on their resume is that they have only one Q1 victory (NC State). Beating Creighton and Butler will give them a couple more Q2/3 wins against teams bubble teams are supposed to beat. And then the one Q1 opportunity for them still crushed them in the final. They got all the way to the final but since the committee just looks at it as another game, they didn’t really improve their resume. Now if they made the final by beating St. John’s the tournament helped by giving them an additional win against a fellow tournament team.

In some of the conferences, there are more opportunities. In the Big 12 today, Arizona State gets Iowa State today with Texas Tech awaiting the winner. That would mean 2 major wins to show the committee you belong – of course, that also means you have to beat Iowa State and Texas Tech on back-to-back days.

Anyways, if you want to watch fun meaningful basketball games today, you can turn on ESPN for either the ACC or Big 12 tournaments, Peacock and the Big 10 network for the Big 10 games or the SEC Network for the SEC tournament. Every game has some intrigue whether it be a situation like Auburn drawing against a Mississippi State team that would give them a bad loss or a SMU vs Louisville that could be a win that helps both teams.

I will certainly give you the times of the three games where a win means you are in the tournament and a loss means you are out.

• 5 pm on ESPN2 is the Southland final between 1 seed Stephen F Austin (28-4) and 2 seed McNeese (27-5). So you have this year’s regular season champ against the defending 2-time champion. To be the best, you have to beat the best!!! If it is anything like last night’s triple overtime semi-final, it will be the game of the day.
• 7 pm on CBS Sports Network is the Patriot final between 2 seed Lehigh (17-16) and 4 seed Boston University (17-16)
• 11:30 pm on ESPN2 is the Big Sky final between 4 seed Montana (18-15) and 7 seed Idaho (20-14) as these two teams were responsible for eliminating all of the top 3 seeds in the Big Sky.

If I had to pick the best games from each of the times in the power conferences, I would probably pick the following. (Note – this isn’t necessarily the most critical game. That will clearly be the teams the closest to the actual bubble cut line. For example, Auburn vs Mississippi State would be the most influential if Auburn loses. But since I don’t think this is the game that Auburn gets tripped up on, there are other games I think will be closer (although to be honest, I could just be happy watching the bubble games from the ACC)

• 12:30 pm – I would pick the 12:30 pm game between LSU and Kentucky in the SEC. I think the SEC is more competitive than people realize and I am interested to see how the Wildcats play against a team with nothing to lose since LSU has too many losses to be an at-large team.
• 2:30 pm – this is one of the best time spots – you can’t go wrong with any of the 4 games. But I will pick SMU vs Louisville in the ACC – I think both these teams could be playing next week so this could be the calibur of your classic 7/10 battle.
• 6:30 pm – I am biased here. I want to see Indiana vs Northwestern in the Big 10. First, it is the team that Purdue will play tomorrow. Second is that Indiana clearly needs a win right now and Northwestern is talented enough to upset anyone (as they almost did to my Boilers last week).
• 9:30 pm – I will spread out the love and choose TCU vs Oklahoma State in the Big 12. TCU should be in and Oklahoma State is likely too far down the NET rankings to make it without some major scalps in the Big 12 tournament. But TCU won both games in this series by 3 points (with the second one in overtime), so it should be a great battle.

Enjoy the games today. And if you’re a fan of a bubble team that loses today, don’t lose hope. The committee just treats this as one game and not a season-defining moment. I am sure that the media will build up the hype as every game is a must win game, and I might even make comments on my bracketology that this game was the final straw. But the only people that matter are the 12 members of the selection committee and they will be inviting 37 teams that lost during their conference tournaments. Hopefully, your bubble team will be one of those 37 teams.

It was a good administrative evening for the Lunatic. Part of that is thanks to the Southland Conference semi-finals.

I had just finished watching Santa Clara run out of steam as #12 Gonzaga went on a run to take the lead and win the WCC conference championship. It is kind of fitting that Gonzaga won one more time before heading to the Pac 12, but it was a tough loss for Santa Clara who played a fantastic game and now has to simply wait and see if what they did was enough to get picked by the Selection Committee.

I quickly checked the scoreboards to see if I could catch the end of the MAAC championship, but it had ended. Siena had completed the upset of regular season champion Merrimack by 10 points to claim their ticket to the dance.

But I was working on my Bracketology and wanted something to listen to in the background, so I flipped over to the Southland semi-final between McNeese St nd UT-Rio Grande Valley, which was tied. And then the game went to overtime. And then the game went to double overtime. And then the game went to triple overtime. I could probably write several paragraphs as what was intended to be something to keep me awake in the background had now captured my full attention.

In the last minute of triple overtime, McNeese St got the ball into the lane to Larry Johnson, who made a layup to put the Cowboys up by two points with 28 seconds to play. And then, UTRGV decided that it was going to try to either end the game or send it to a fourth overtime by running one last play. The seconds ticked down before they started to try to run a play where they hit a player at the top of the key coming off a screen. But Larry Johnson jumped the passing lane, stole the ball and drove down the court for a slam dunk to end the marathon and send McNeese State to the Southland final.

The game didn’t end until 12:30 pm EST. I had really only planned on staying up 10-15 minutes past the WCC conference game. But in that extra hour, I got to watch what probably was the most fun game of the day while typing up my first attempt at establishing a bubble on my bracketology page.

Thanks to CoPilot, I also got some suggestions on how to pull the basketball box scores on the ESPN site, and so I also finished pulling all the scores. I have no clue if they will match the audit I do with the NCAA official records. I am not sure how I am going to summarize the data. But I have it pulled, which is typically the long part.

So, got to watch a great basketball game, continued to get the blog pages up, and gave myself a chance at getting the data for building all my models that fail when I change my mind and pick Purdue to win.

It was a good night. But as I type this before going to work, I am super tired. The sleep deprivation has begun. And I am getting old – I don’t know that I can be sleep-deprived this early in March.

Anyways, if you want to see the initial formation of what teams are locks and what teams are on the Lunatic’s bubble, click the Bracketology link on the top of the page. Please realize this is not where I think the teams will end up. It was simply an attempt to make sure I had a full list of the teams with a chance to make the tournament as well as an initial starting point of where the teams will fall based on history (for example, teams in the top 25 of the polls and the top 25 of the NET typically hear their name called on Sunday – so they are locks).

It might not be the star teams like Michigan, Duke or Arizona, but the last 30 minutes have produced some incredible drama that has distracted me from my bracketology and box scores.

We will go based on the chronological order of the results. First, we head Lake Charles, Louisiana and the first semi-final of the Southland Conference Tournament. And regular season champs Stephen F Austin are on the ropes in a tie game as Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. And with 15 seconds left in the game, the Lumberjacks’ Keon Thompson steals the ball and drives all the way down the court for a game-winning lay-up.

The Lunatic then headed to Indianapolis, IN (on his television) for the end of the Horizon Championship. Detroit Mercy has a double digit lead with less than 10 minutes to play when the regular season champs from Wright State started coming back. With a tie game and about two minutes left, the Raiders’ Logan Woods hit two three-pointers to lead the champs to a 6 point lead. But the Titans would fight back to a 2 point game with 9 seconds, when Wright State missed both free throws, Detroit charged down the field and Orlando Lovejoy drove to the basket to try to tie the game only to be denied at the rim with a great block by Kellen Pickett.

On a side note before continuing, I have to give tons of credit to Mark Montgomery, the coach of Detroit Mercy. He took over the program two years ago after the Titans went 1-31, and in just two seasons, he had them with a winning record, a tie for third in the conference, and in the conference championship title game. What an incredible turnaround.

But the excitement isn’t over in March. Next, we head to Washington, D.C. and the Coastal Conference championship game where Hofstra and Monmouth are playing a tight game. With a little over 1 minute to play, Monmouth’s Justin Ray hit a three-pointer to cut the Hofstra lead to 1 point. But the Pride’s German Plotnikov had the answer on the next possession with a three-pointer of his own to lead Hofstra to an eventual 75-69 victory.

Then, we headed over to Charlotte where the ACC first round is wrapping up. With the game tied and under 30 seconds, Wake Forest’s Mekhi Mason gets the ball in the corner and makes a nice move to get an open chance at a three-pointer, but his shot misses the mark. With time running out, Virginia Tech’s Ben Hammond misses a shot to try to win it, Jailen Bedford beats everyone to the board and tries to tip it in at the buzzer, but the tip-in also rolls off the rim to send us to overtime.

Starting off the overtime, ex-Purdue player Myles Colvin hit a floating jump shot and a three-pointer to quickly give the Demon Deacons a 5 point lead. The Hokies’ Tobi Lawal got the ball in the lane for a dunk to cut the lead to 1 with about a minute to play, but Sebastian Akins would drive into the lane to take a jumper, and he would hit the basket and get fouled to extend the lead back to 4. Wake Forest would hit their free throws down the stretch, and create a huge blow to Virginia Tech’s bubble chances to make the tournament.

As I finish typing this blog, hoping that my current attempt to pull box scores have finished, I head to Las Vegas and the West Coast Conference championship to notice that Santa Clara has a 33-29 lead over #12 Gonzaga as the Broncos try to get themselves off the bubble and earn their conference’s automatic bid. And then I notice that over in Atlantic City, Siena has scored the first 6 points of the second half to jump out to a 9 point lead over MAAC regular season champion Merrimack.

How can I get my bracketology and analysis done when there is so much great basketball to actually watch!!!! I don’t care – the Lunatic is so happy! It is his favorite time of year – March Madness is incredible!!!

The Lunatic has been desperately trying to figure out how to pull box scores from other locations as well as come up with a nice looking bracketology page. I have a nervous feeling that I am going to enter the tournament already exhausted. That should be good for everyone in Stomping the Lunatic! Anyways, I was curious about how the games were going and ran across this fascinating story.

Utah Valley plans to leave the WAC for the Big West at the end of the school year. The Wolverines also happen to be the regular season champions of the conference in their final season.

But maybe most importantly, the university is caught up in a legal dispute with the conference over the $1 million fee for leaving according to the conference’s contracts. They originally planned to mot allow the school to play in any of the conference championship games but a judge in Utah provided the school a temporary injunction to allow them to play.

Apparently, part of that order directed the university to place the $1 million in escrow with the court, which the school has not yet done. So, on Tuesday, the league’s board of directors demanded that if the escrow account is not paid by 7 pm EST today, they would not be allowed to play because “it would be a member not in good standing.”

I have no clue to legal standing of any of this – since I am simply going off a couple of articles that all came out a few hours ago. But it certainly has major consequences if a regular season champion is suddenly removed from their tournament in a one-bid conference.

Will be interesting to see what happens over the next 24 hours before the opening game between Abilene Christian and Tarleton State (since I would assume that if they remove Utah Valley, there would no longer be a need for the play-in game).

The ACC, Big 12 and Big 10 join the mix as their first rounds kick-off. That will include some teams that are technically on the bubble. But first, congratulations are in order for our conference tournament champions.

• Troy defended their regular season championship as they beat a Georgia Southern team who was playing their 6th game in 6 days. Troy jumped out early and didn’t look back on their way to a 77-61 victory in the Sun Belt.
• Furman upset regular season champ East Tennessee State with a 76-61 victory to claim the Southern Conference automatic bid.

And for those of you excited for one last matchup between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s before Gonzaga leaves for the Pac 10 next year, bubble team Santa Clara crashed the party with their 76-71 upset over St. Mary’s. This sets up the biggest game of the day at 9 pm on ESPN. Santa Clara might have already done enough to give the WCC 3 teams in the tournament, but if they can upset Gonzaga in Las Vegas tonight, they will take the decision out of the committee’s hands.

Other than the West Coast Conference championship, we have 4 other tournaments having their final tonight – although one of them doesn’t matter. The NEC will have regular season champion LIU playing transitioning Mercyhurst at 7 pm on ESPN2 – where since Mercyhurst isn’t eligible, LIU is playing tonight for pride knowing their tournament bid is secure. The other three are not so lucky – they need to win tonight to dance.

• Coastal – 3rd seed Hofstra (23-10) plays 4th seed Monmouth (19-14) at 7 pm on CBS Sports Network
• Horizon – 1st seed Wright State (22-11) plays 3rd seed Detroit Mercy (17-14) at 7 pm on ESPN
• MAAC – 1st seed Merrimack (23-10) plays 3rd Siena (22-11)

The Southland semi-finals are also somewhat interesting tonight if you are looking for a team who will likely be a 12-14 seed but might be able to pull an upset in the tournament. NET 86 regular season champion Stephen F Austin (27-4) plays Texas A&M-Corpus Christi on ESPNU at 7 pm followed by NET 62 McNeese St (26-5) plays UT-Rio Grande at 9:30 pm on ESPN+. I don’t think either of them can get an at-large bid, but it should be a great final tomorrow if the two favorites advance.

If you count the bubble as teams in the top 80 of the NET with at least 1 Quad 1 win, the Big 12 (on ESPN+) and the ACC (ACC Network) is where you want to watch.

• 12:30 pm Big 12 – 48 Baylor (16-15) vs 67 Arizona State (16-15). No team has got an at-large bid with 16 losses, so not sure how realistic either teams chances are – but they certainly can’t lose today.
• 2 pm ACC – 59 Stanford (20-11) vs Pitt (12-19). Stanford does have 5 Quad 1 wins but they might still be on the wrong side of the bubble so they can’t afford a loss to Pitt.
• 3 pm Big 12 – 46 Cincinnati (17-14) vs Utah (10-21). The Bearcats had been on a tear lately including victories against Kansas and BYU until their momentum got stopped in their finale against TCU. They need to get a win here.
• 4:30 pm ACC – 39 SMU (19-12) vs Syracuse (15-16). SMU looked like they were locked into the tournament until they finished the season on a 4 game losing streak. Losing to Syracuse will lead to a very long wait for the Mustangs.
• 7 pm ACC – 53 Virginia Tech (19-12) vs 64 Wake Forest (16-15). Both teams are in that horrible place of having lots of chances at Quad 1 wins and only could win 1-2 of them. The Hokies are in a slightly better spot but neither can afford a loss here.
• 7 pm Big 12 – 24 BYU (21-10) vs Kansas State (12-19) – the Cougars are probably playing for seed here, but they certainly don’t want to lose this early in the conference tournament.
• 9:30 pm Big 12 – 71 Colorado (17-14) vs 79 Oklahoma State (18-13). Both teams are on the outside looking in, but the Big 12 tournament will give lots of chances to impress the committee, so if they can advance to get a chance against TCU and Kansas, they could possibly make a run for the tournament.

Enjoy the games!!!