Stomp The Lunatic

Category: 2012 Blog

  • Wow – who would have expected

    Kentucky loses the SEC to Vanderbilt, UNC loses the ACC to Florida St, and Xavier gets beaten by St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10.  Would not have gone with that trifecta.

  • 2012 Schedule and Results are available

    As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

    So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I just randomly pick late Wednesday evening.

    However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort. So, just click on 2012 Schedule in one of the menus and get an Excel spreadsheet with summary box score information for each game for every Division I team.  If I get time, I will try to add the standings sheet that was in the 2011 file.

    My classic caveats on this data are the following: I have only checked that standings match – this year with the NCAA RPI page. I don’t have time to error check over 5000 box scores.  I probably have a glitch in the RPI formula because all the records match by home, away and neutral games but a couple of the 200+ RPI schools have flip-flopped in the standings.  Still figure with all the records right and the top 200+ right, it is close enough…..  By the way, I am relatively pleased by this – if you look at the official site, and then look at CBS, ESPN and a couple other sites that post RPI numbers, none of them match – it is fascinating for something that seems so simple to calculate.   Also, obviously, the championship games being played today are not in the file. If you notice something terribly wrong, let me know – no promises I have time to fix it, but at least everyone will know.

    Enjoy the data!!!!

  • Random thoughts about the week

    So very excited about the conference tournaments – they always bring such great storylines.    I am strangely turning towards enjoying the tournaments.  I have always believed that it seems so unfair that a team can go 16-2 in their conference, win the regular season, and then not get to go to the tournament when they get upset in their conference tournament.

    However, the concept is growing on me.  There is something strangely appealing about the concept.  If you want your season continue, it is simple – win your next game.   And so many of the conference finals have been really great games to watch because of that.

    Some of my thoughts so far about Championship Week:

    • The entire bubble let out a sigh of relief when Murray State took the Ohio Valley championship with a last second basket against Tennessee State.
    • Then, they held their breath again until Creighton finally finished off Illinois State in overtime at the Missouri Valley’s Arch Madness.
    • VCU made all of Richmond happy as they held off Drexel to take the Colonial.  I really hope the committee lets Drexel dance as well.   It would seem a shame to not let in a team that won 25 of its last 27 games.
    • Valparaiso ended any chances of another amazing run from Butler.  But then sadly got destroyed by Detroit in the championship game.
    • An amazing story in the Sun Belt.  In January, Western Kentucky fires their coach after going 5-11 and seeing attendance at home games plummet.  Interim coach Ron Harper goes 4-7 and gets named full time coach for turning the program in the right direction.  Harper and the Hilltoppers reward that decision by winning their next six games – including coming back from being down double digits in the Sun Belt championship game against North Texas and will be dancing.  Remember – just keep winning, and you get to keep playing.
    • Harvard earns a bid to the tournament while simply watching the Princeton vs. Penn game.  Thanks to a great regular season and the Ivy league rewarding their regular season champion with the NCAA invite, they did their work last weekend to claim at least a share of the title, and then enjoyed watching one of their biggest rivals do them a favor and prevent Penn from tying them.
    • South Dakota State earns its first ever NCAA bid in an exciting overtime game against Western Illinois.  And while this was a wonderful story for the Jackrabbits, you have to feel for WIU.   They had a 9 point lead with 7 1/2 minutes left, and could only muster up 8 more points the rest of the game – including the 5 minute OT – watching the opportunity for their school’s first ever invitation to the dance slip away.
    • I am not a fan of Syracuse – in fact, I normally root against them (long story).  But I have to tremendously thank the Orangemen for beating UConn this afternoon – simply so that I don’t have to go through an entire weekend of listening to the press ask if the Huskies can repeat their unlikely 5 game run to win the Big East Championship.
    • Is it possible for multiple teams to get a bid from the Pac 10, and have neither one of them be the regular season champion.   Washington found a way to lose to Oregon State today – making the pundits question if the Huskies will be in the tournament.
    • Finally, it sadly looks like the longest drought will continue.  Northwestern lost in OT to Minnesota in a game they desparately needed.  When the Wildcats needed just a few baskets to save their season, they couldn’t find one.  They went 1-6 with 2 turnovers in the last 7 1/2 minutes of the game, and then repeated that performance in OT as they watched the Gophers slowly pull away.

    And I am probably missing something that was a big moment of the week.  But enough rambling for now – need to go cheer for my Boilers – as they are starting their Big 10 tournament game against Nebraska.

  • Welcome to the 2012 Stomp the Lunatic Contest

    Welcome to the 2012 Stomp the Lunatic Contest! In an attempt to continue to provide the best NCAA tournament bracket experience, I have tried to upgrade the site. This year’s upgrade includes improvements to the blog, fixes (“hopefully”) to the entry form that caused issues for some people last year, and some fixes that will make my life easier in keeping the site up-to-date.

    Please feel free to browse the site (I will be adding comments and links to old pages over the next few weeks), and come back when the Selection Committee announces the 68 teams to enter the contest and STOMP THE LUNATIC!!!!