Since I still haven’t figured out the box score dilemna, a lot of the fun comparisons that I do are harder. But with the conference tournaments starting, it is really important to start to figure out what we are watching and why.

There will be plenty of discussion for what I consider the 5 power conferences – the ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big East and SEC will easily send multiple teams to the dance. It is certainly possible for a bid stealer to come from here, but there are too many scenarios to watch. If Michigan gets upset next week in the Big 10 tournament, there is still a pretty strong chance that the automatic bid will go to someone from the pool of Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, or Purdue. Maybe it goes to a more bubblish team like Wisconsin, UCLA, Iowa, Ohio State or Indiana – but that likely means they were solidifying their place vs. stealing a bid from another team. We will assess if a bid is in danger as those conference tournaments progress next week.

The rest go into the following 4 groups

The one bid conferences

17 conferences do not have a single team in the top 80 of the NET. No team in history has received an at-large bid without being in the top 80, so it is pretty clear these teams are simply playing for their automatic bid. The regular season champs of all conferences are at least guaranteed a spot in the NIT, but obviously everyone wants to be dancing. So, if you lose in one of these tournaments, you are going to have to watch the dance on TV like all of us.

These conferences are America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big West, Coastal, Conference USA, Horizon, MAAC, MEAC, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC and the WAC.

Likely one bid conferences

These four conferences currently have a team in the NET Top 80. But their current league leader has a different statistic going against them. None of the 4 of these teams have a Quad 1 victory. It is nearly impossible to get into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team if you haven’t at least once beaten someone else in the field. These 4 in particular are ones the Lunatic tends to root for the regular season champion because it is heartbreaking for me to see a team that went 25-5 in the season and 15-1 in the conference have their tournament dreams crushed at this point.

• Missouri Valley – Belmont (NET 55)
• Southland – McNeese St (NET 61)
• Ivy – Yale (NET 67)
• Big South – High Point (NET 77)

Bubble Stealers

These might be the saddest of the group. They have a couple teams in the top 80, which means the regular season champion has a true competitor in the conference tournament

American

• South Florida (49) – they have a 2 game lead on the conference as well as a victory vs Utah St (and their road win at Tulsa also counts as a Quad 1 win). Probably not enough to get in as an at large – definitely dangerous enough to win a game in the tournament if they get in.
• Tulsa (50) – unlike South Florida, they do not have a Quad 1 win – so they likely are automatic bid or hoping the NIT keeps their season going.

MAC

• Miami OH (53) – they are the elephant in the room and will probably earn their own blog piece – I think they are in the tourney no matter what so it will be a true bid-stealer if someone else wins the MAC
• Akron (56) – Akron is 25-5 so certainly good enough to pull an upset. But they have no Quad 1 wins – so their only path to the dance is through the automatic bid.

Atlantic 10

• St Louis (NET 23) – they are likely in at 27-3 and ranked in both the top 25 of the NET and the polls. Their Quad 1 wins at VCU and Santa Clara don’t necessarily scream guaranteed but I suspect they are in if they fall next week.
• VCU (NET 46) – they played a bunch of Quad 1 games when compared to other mid-major conference teams, but their only victory to show for it was vs South Florida. They would at least be in the discussion but not convinced they can get in over a power conference bubble team. They are certainly dangerous enough to win the Atlantic 10 and steal a bid from someone else.
• Dayton (NET 69) – their claim to fame is they were responsible for one of St. Louis’ three losses. But with a NET at 69 and a WAB of 63, they need the Atlantic 10 tournament championship to keep dancing.

Multiple Bid conferences

That is the Mountain West and West Coast Conference – they are strong enough to likely send more than one team to the tournament, but still too small to be included as a power conference.

Mountain West – they have 6 teams in the top 80, leading with Utah State at 28th. San Diego State (45) and New Mexico (47) should at least get discussed as an at large team. Boise State (59), Nevada (72) and Grand Canyon (73) all at least have one Quad 1 win – but might be too far down the list on NET to be considered. I could see anything from 1-4 teams coming out of the Mountain West – so it could be a wild tournament to see who at least guarantees their spot.

West Coast – Gonzaga (6) and St. Mary’s (21) are both ranked in the top 25 for both the NET and the polls. It would be no surprise if these two meet up in Vegas to decide the title – which would make bubble teams happy since both are probably already in the field. I have seen some people say Santa Clara (41) might also be in the at-large consideration bubble. I am not convinced that the one Quad 1 victory over St Mary’s and a one point loss to St Louis is enough but they will make the conversation (and earn another Quad 1 win if they can get to the WCC final).

So if you are rooting for chaos, you want carnage to happen in the Mountain West, West Coast, Atlantic 10, MAC and American conference tournaments. If you are a fan of a bubble team, you should be rooting for Gonzaga, Utah State, St Louis, Miami OH and South Florida over the next week.