Not that people need help Stomping the Lunatic. But if you are not sure who to take, there is a method that helps.
Ken Pomeroy is one of the leading statisticians in college basketball analytics, and his models identify the most efficient offenses and defenses in college hoops. I read different cutoffs as people try to slide the outliers in – but in general something like 20-21 of the last 23 champions have been balanced enough to be top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
So if you want to know who that leaves you with….
- Duke (Off – 4, Def – 2)
- Arizona (Off – 6, Def – 3)
- Michigan (Off – 8, Def – 1)
- Florida (Off – 9, Def – 6)
- Houston (Off – 13, Def – 5)
- Louisville (Off – 19, Def – 25)
- Iowa State (Off – 20, Def – 4)
- Michigan State (Off – 24, Def – 13)
Here are some of the teams that missed out because their defense just missed the cut.
- Purdue (Off – 1, Def – 36)
- Illinois (Off – 2, Def 28)
- Vanderbilt (Off – 7, Def 31)
- Texas Tech (Off – 12, Def 33)
Here are some teams that missed out because their offense just missed the cut.
- Gonzaga (Off – 29, Def – 9)
- UConn (Off – 30, Def – 11)
- Tennessee (Off – 34, Def – 15)
- Virginia (Off – 27, Def – 16)
- St. Mary’s (Off – 40, Def – 20)
Finally, here are the teams that have a top 25 ranking in one measure but not a top 40 ranking in the other.
- Best remaining offenses – Alabama (3), Arkansas (5), BYU (10), Wisconsin (11), Georgia (14), Ohio State (16), Texas (18), UCLA (21), Santa Clara (22)
- Best remaining defenses – Nebraska (7), Kansas (10), St. John’s (12), Clemson (21), TCU (23), Northern Iowa (24)
I do think it is interesting that of the top 5 offenses, the only one with a top defense is Duke. But all 5 of the top defenses rank also have a top offense.
I guess the phrase defense wins championships might be more prophetic than we think. Anyways, hope that helps you with your brackets. Now I am off to see what other analytics I can come up with before eventually picking Purdue.
I will say this – because I do think analytics can really help you win a bracket pool like this. But there is a reality you have to live with. Let me approach it as a Purdue fan – lets say that you are picking the West region and while you can certainly see some teams with the potential to beat Arizona or Purdue, the odds tell you that these two teams will be in the regional final. The Kenpom approach says you should pick Arizona – and since they are the 1 seed and have only lost twice all season, this feels statistically the right answer.
So lets say you go with the stats, and the games start happening and the bracket breaks as you expected. As a Purdue fan, you desperately want to see your Boilers return to Indianapolis for the Final Four. But this will blow up your chance to win the pool – you went with the statistics and picked Arizona. So now you are conflicted. Are you really going to be happy if you come in 5th in the pool because you were right that Arizona beats Purdue? Of course not – you want to see your team win.
I personally feel you should always try to set yourself up so that you don’t end up being disappointed if you are correct. Sure, a little bit of realism is probably needed. Being from Richmond, I would like to see VCU go far. But picking them to the Final Four is probably a little crazy, even for me. But still I firmly believe you should pick with your heart so you can truly root for your picks.
If you are like me, that is a good way to use the upset pool. Pick with your heart in your entry trying to win the upset pool and pick with the statistics in your standard pool. And maybe you get lucky and one of them wins. Whichever way you choose, I hope it leads to success for you.