Stomp The Lunatic

You have heard me complain countless number of times about the committee.  There are plenty of places where you can look at the seeds and totally get that they are off.   But one of the things that frustrated me is that it felt that many of the teams that played won Sunday did not get a fair assessment which included their championship game.

I could give tons of reasons why Kentucky belonged ahead of Texas A&M – when you have two teams that are co-champs, they both finish with the same record, they both were able to beat some good teams out of conference, and they both play in the conference championship, the team that wins that game should get ranked better.  I am sure some arguments can be made.  Before Sunday’s game, I had Texas A&M slightly ahead.  But after Kentucky won on a neutral court, I felt you have to move them up.

And everyone knows that I think Michigan State and Purdue were unfairly treated – but I am biased towards the Big 10 and it doesn’t help that both of them lost their games, so I will leave them out.

But there was one other team that was punished for what appears to be simply playing on Sunday afternoon.   One mid-major conference played their conference championship on Sunday – the Southland conference.  And the team that won that game was Stephen F Austin, who finished the season with a victory over Texas A&M – Corpus Christi to go 27-5.  The Lumberjacks were rewarded with a 14 seed.   And so I thought it would be interesting to look at how the statistical ratings like KenPom, Sagarin, ESPN BPI, and Adjusted Scoring Margin would rank the teams compared to the rankings.

Team	Committee	RPI	Pomeroy	BPI	Sagarin	ASM
Chattanooga	1	5	10	7	10	9
Ark – Little Rock	2	2	3	2	4	5
Yale	3	3	2	1	1	2
South Dakota St	4	1	7	6	5	6
UNC Wilmington	5	4	6	4	6	7
Hawaii	6	11	4	3	3	3
Stony Brook	7	6	8	8	7	4
Iona	8	9	5	9	8	8
Green Bay	9	14	13	13	13	16
Buffalo	10	12	16	14	16	15
Fresno St	11	8	11	10	9	14
Stephen F Austin	12	7	1	5	2	1
Middle Tennessee	13	10	14	16	12	11
CSU Bakersfield	14	15	9	12	11	10
UNC Asheville	15	16	12	11	15	12
Weber St	16	13	15	15	14	13
Austin Peay	17	19	18	19	18	20
Hampton	18	17	20	20	19	19
Florida Gulf Coast	19	21	17	17	17	17
Fairleigh Dickinson	20	20	21	21	21	21
Southern	21	18	19	18	20	18
Holy Cross	22	22	22	22	22	22

You will notice that in all of the statistical ratings, 4 of the top 5 teams in each of those rankings were Yale, Little Rock, Hawaii and Stephen F Austin – 4 of the 5 teams that pulled upsets from the mid-major conference champions.    That’s right, both Pomeroy and Sagarin would have had the 4 12 seeds as the 4 teams that pulled upsets, and BPI would have only missed on UNC-Wilmington, the team that was beating Duke at halftime.  Adjusted Scoring Margin sometimes is off because of who teams play – but even it would have ranked those 4 teams as the top 5, switching out Little Rock for Stony Brook.

So, how could Stephen F Austin, who was either the best or second best mid-major according to two of the more respected computer rankings of college basketball, be ranked as a 14 seed instead of a 12 seed (and not just a 14 seed – the worst ranked 14 seed).

Their RPI was a little higher than the 12 seeds, but if RPI matters that much, why weren’t teams like Valparaiso, St. Mary’s and St. Bonaventure in the tournament over teams that were 30 RPI rankings below them.  By the way, Valparaiso just beat St. Mary’s tonight to make it to Madison Square Garden and the NIT semi-finals – where their run included all double-digit victories including one against the ACC’s Florida State.   Now, I admit that the Seminoles aren’t Duke or Miami – but if Valparaiso could beat FSU by double digits, I have to imagine they could have held their own in the tourney.

But back to the Lumberjacks, since even RPI would have given them a 13 seed.  I think the reason is the committee didn’t want to come up with multiple brackets.  And I think that if Texas A&M – Corpus Christi had upset SFA to win the Southland’s bid, their profile would have been a 14 seed.  So, my gut opinion is that they filled the bracket with a placeholder as a 14 seed for the Southland winner.  It is the most reasonable explanation to me of how the Lumberjacks could have a better record than most of the mid-majors, have better statistical rankings and still be ranked so far behind multiple teams.

And then the committee’s best 3 seed in West Virginia ended up getting this team that clearly should have been a couple seeds better.  And while the 3 seed has to win that game, regardless, it is not a coincidence that this tournament saw a record number of upsets.  I guess I should be happy – it has led to a really fun tournament.  I like seeing so many double digit seeds succeed.   But it doesn’t stop me from thinking that we might be losing some really good teams earlier than necessary in the tournament because the tournament wasn’t seeded appropriately.  OK – I will try to make that my final rant about the committee.  We have 16 incredible teams remaining – and 1 of them is going to deserve to be the NCAA National Champion – bring on the Sweet 16!!!!

It should be obvious at this point of which conferences are doing the best, but the Lunatic feels like it his duty to grade the conferences.  So, here are the conference’s report cards – which I will admit might have some unfairness because of potential mis-seedings by the committee.  But, at the end of the day, if the committee makes you a protected top 4 seed, you are the one expected to make it to the Sweet 16.

ACC – A+ (+3) – The ACC have so far been the stars of the tournament.  To be fair, the ACC was supposed to get 4 teams in the Sweet 16, but they were the only conference where all the protected seeds (UNC, Virginia, Duke and Miami) managed to accomplish what was expected.  But Notre Dame and Syracuse made it as well.  One could argue that the only game that they were not the lower seed was when Syracuse beat Dayton, but to be fair – none of the conferences have been going unscathed from upsets, so winning 12 games is impressive.

Mid-majors – A+ (+9) – I qualified this as any conference that didn’t have multiple at-large teams.  Thought briefly about separating the Missouri Valley – but it seemed unfair to count them as a major and the West Coast conference as a mid-major.  None of these teams were given a chance with the best seed being the 11 seeds awarded to Gonzaga, Wichita St and Northern Iowa.  All they did was get a Sweet 16 team in Gonzaga and have 7 others win games (Wichita St won 2 if you count the play-in along with upsets by Hawaii, Yale, Northern Iowa, Stephen F Austin, Little Rock and Middle Tennessee St).  The committee chose to not reward any of these teams with better seeds, and these teams punished the poor major conference teams that were unlucky enough to draw them.  If it wasn’t for the fact that the ACC still has 6 of their 7 teams alive in the Sweet 16, these small conference schools would have been the story of the tournament.  (Which of course, is an ironic twist – even when they do the incredible, one of the big conferences do something amazing to steal the stage).

Big 10 – B+ (+0) – The Big 10 got 3 teams to the second weekend when they were only supposed to get 1.  This is even more amazing because the one team that was supposed to make it got upset in the first round.  Maryland, Indiana and Wisconsin’s performance gets the conference one of the better grades, but they have to take a little bit of a hit thanks to Michigan State’s and Purdue’s first round losses.  I originally was going to give them an A-, but when I think that I would have had Michigan State, Purdue and Indiana all as protected seeds, I figured this result wasn’t as good as it could be.

Big East – B+ (+0) – The Big East was supposed to have 2 Sweet 16 teams, but Xavier’s last second loss made Villanova their only representative.  Still, Providence and Butler won games they were not supposed to, and the unexpected losses from Xavier and Seton Hall don’t look as bad as some of the others.

American – B (+1) – The American conference got multiple teams into the tournament, but none were supposed to win a game as the best seed they got was a 9 seed.  So, Connecticut winning their first round game makes them perform better than expected.  But it is hard for me to give any better than a B without a Sweet 16 team.

SEC – B (-1) – Both Texas A&M and Kentucky were supposed to make it, but Kentucky’s loss to Indiana in retrospect doesn’t feel worth docking them too much.   Can’t decide if the Aggies deserve extra credit for the most incredible comeback against Northern Iowa or deserve to get a lower grade because a 3 seed shouldn’t need to score 12 points in 30 seconds to beat an 11 seed….   Since I don’t believe Northern Iowa should have been an 11 seed, we’ll call it a draw.

Atlantic 10 – B- (+0) – Dayton lost when they were not supposed to, and VCU won when they were not supposed to – so it is kind of a wash.  Since St. Joseph’s also played what I would say is better than they should have with a close loss to Oregon, I will put them slightly above average.

Big 12 – B- (-5) – The Big 12 did get 3 teams into the Sweet 16.  But they were supposed to get 4.   West Virginia’s first round loss to SFA hurts the conference’s grade a little.  But what really dropped the conference grade despite Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa St winning is that Baylor, Texas and Texas Tech all were upset.  When you are supposed to have 7 teams win their first round games, and only 3 of them are successful, it can’t be looked as a large success.  Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa St may still turn this into the Big 12’s best tournament in a while – but for now, I have to bring them down a little bit for all being responsible for many upsets.

Pac 12 – D (-7) – This was supposed to be the year the Pac 12 showed how improved they were.   They were expected to get 3 teams to the Sweet 16, and along with the Big 12, they were supposed to have 7 victories in the first round.  Instead, protected seed Cal lost to Hawaii.  Colorado, Arizona, Oregon St, and USC all lost their first round games.  And Utah was upset in the second round by Gonzaga.  The only thing stopped this from be a complete F is the fact that #1 seed Oregon did make the Sweet 16, but even that looked shaky for a while.

Of course, none of this matters – it is just the ramblings of a crazy person.  All that matters who ends up winning the whole tournament – and unlike the Lunatic’s report cards which are opinion based, that will actually get played out on the court.   Good luck to all 16 teams that still have a chance to win the National Championship!!!

 

 

The Ducks have made it to the Sweet 16 – and they showed once again that no lead is safe.   The St. Joseph’s Hawks looked like they were poised to make the upset after an 8-0 run gave them a 7 point lead with just under 5 minutes to play.  But the Ducks, led by Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks, finished on a 17-6 run to send the #1 seed to Anaheim.

The finishes of the last three games are not the only crazy thing that has happened tonight.  The Lunatic went 6 for 8 today and finds himself in a very unusual spot – his 520 points in the Standard Pool and 250 points in the Upset Pool are leading both pools.  While I imagine that not being able to score any points in the South Regional might eventually come back to haunt the Lunatic – as he had misguided faith in Big 10 powers Michigan State and Purdue.  But for now, he gets to have the pride that no one is stomping the Lunatic.

There are many who are close – Kelli Shonts, Audra Lifson, Jack White and Chuck Brugh are only 20 points behind the Lunatic – and Shirli Zelcer, Nathan Standley, Doug Crowe, David Chamowitz, and Michael Swinson are just 30 points back.

And in the upset pool, John Bachmann trails by just 3 points, Doug Crowe is only 4 behind, and Rick Flynn is only 10 points behind.

That is simply getting one more game right – which is made easier when the leader is missing three of his Elite 8 teams and one of his Final 4 teams.

In the meantime, for all of us who picked Michigan State to win it all, the end of the weekend brings new life.   That is because the Second Chance Pool is ready for you to enter.   A fresh new slate is waiting for you to have another chance to win.  So, remember to login before the Sweet 16 games start on Thursday and fill out your second chance bracket!!!!!  It is another chance to win!!!!

Good luck to everyone!!!!!

The Lunatic is still stunned.   And I am heart-broken for Northern Iowa.

While the Aggies and Panthers were getting ready to head to double overtime, Wisconsin was staging their own comeback.  Down 8 with about 6 minutes to play, the Badgers slowly started to chip away at the lead.  With 13 seconds left in the game, Bronson Koenig hits a three-pointer to tie the game at 63.  With the chance to win the game, Edmond Summer for Xavier drives to the basket.   But the Badgers Zak Showalter played incredible defense and drew the offensive foul setting the stage with 4 seconds left.  Off a time-out, the Badgers get the ball to Koenig who dribbles quickly to the corner and shoots a three-pointer just before the buzzer to end the Musketeers season and send Wisconsin to the Sweet 16.

Which brings us back to the heartbreak in Oklahoma City.  In the first overtime, it looked like Wyatt Lohaus might have saved the Panthers season with a three pointer at 29 seconds to give UNI a 3 point lead.   But that comeback was easier than the one that ended regulation.  Alex Caruso drived to the basket to make it a one point lead, and after Jeremy Morgan only hits one of his FTs, Caruso drove again to tie the game and send it to a second overtime.

The second overtime belonged to the Aggies, as Danuel House managed to hit a big shot to give Texas A&M a 4 point lead with about a minute to play, and this time, it was Northern Iowa who needed the comeback.   And unfortunately for Cinderella, they just didn’t have anything left.   House – the Aggies leading scorer who was basically contained for 35 minutes, went crazy with 22 points to lead his team along with Caruso, who added 25 points, to an improbable incredible victory.

What makes it hard is that part of this was due to an injury to UNI’s senior Matt Bohannon.  Bohannon, the team’s inbounds passer, had injured his knee on a rebound late in the game, and had to watch from the bench as trainers desperately tried to treat his knee and the Aggies kept forcing turnovers off the inbounds passes from the Panthers.  He eventually returned to the game in overtime, but by that point, the damage was already done.

And so the team that had made it to the tournament by hitting a last minute basket to win the Missouri Valley Championship, and then won their first round game by hitting a shot from half court to steal the game from Texas, found themselves on the wrong side of the miracle tonight, and in this case, both of Cinderella’s slippers slipped off as the clock struck midnight.

And the Panthers and Musketeers serve as painful reminders for all the remaining teams in this crazy tournament – that has already seen a few amazing comebacks.   No lead is ever safe!!!!

OK, time to watch the last 7 minutes of the Oregon / St. Joseph’s game as the Hawks have erased a halftime lead from the Ducks and hold onto a 1 point lead.  If this game is anything like the last two, it should provide a lot of drama!

Cinderella’s slipper just got a little tighter.  A stunning result – Northern Iowa led by 12 points with 44 seconds left and looked like they were going on to the Sweet 16.   And then Texas A&M forced 4 turnovers and went on an improbable 14-2 run to send the game to overtime.   And now the Aggies have just taken a 2 point lead in overtime – the Lunatic is stunned at what is happening in Oklahoma City.

Both mid-majors made it interesting for 2/3rds of the game, but then they went cold – almost as if the moment was starting to get to big – sometimes the realization that the Sweet 16 is possible can make a team get tight really quick.   And Maryland and Syracuse both took advantage to go on large runs to finish off the game.

The win by Syracuse sends the 6th ACC team to the Sweet 16, which is extremely impressive.     That makes the ACC 12-1, with the only loss being the 4 point one by 10 seed Pittsburgh.

One more double digit seed left – Northern Iowa currently has a 6 point lead over Texas A&M, but that has been shrunk from 15 points – so that could come down to the wire as well.   With Xavier only up by 3 at half-time and Oregon/St. Joseph’s still to start, looks like it should be an entertaining evening of college basketball.

VCU came all the way back from down 13 at half, but Oklahoma’s star player, Buddy Hield would not let his team lose.   Hield put up 36 points – with the majority of them being in the second half, and led the Sooners to a 4 point victory.

So, another Cinderella goes down.   And Syracuse just went on a 14-2 run to push their lead over Middle Tennessee State – so another small conference school team is on the ropes.

How exciting was that.   Stephen F Austin looked like they were going to make sure another Cinderella advanced to the Sweet 16, as they went on an 8-0 run to take a 75-70 lead.

Demetrius Jackson hit a layup with a minute and a half to play to cut the lead to 3 points, and then cut the lead to 1 with two FTs as he was fouled on a drive.   Then, potentially, the most important moment happened.  The Irish brought in reserve guard Rex Pflueger to play defense.

The Irish did manage to stop the Lumberjacks from scoring and got the ball with 15 seconds to try to win.  Demetrius Jackson drove to the basket and shot up a wild shot that missed.  But Zach Auguste kept it alive by getting the offense rebound, but his layup also ends up short.   And with 1 second left on the clock, the defensive specialist that plays only 13.9 minutes and averages 2.5 points per game, tips the ball up and watches it go in to be the hero for the Irish.

The Lumberjacks got off one last half court prayer, but it did not go in, and cruelly, the clock struck midnight on the Cinderella Lumberjacks.  Kudos to Stephen F Austin for a fantastic game and a fantastic season – but the congratulations go to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for not giving up when the game was slipping away from them (not to mention give the ACC their 5th Sweet 16 team).  And as March manages to do, Rex Pflueger becomes another unlikely hero who has saved his team’s season with a last second basket to allow them to survive and advance.

As you can tell by getting three teams wrong in the bracket, I did poorly compare to my other bracketologists.   Ironically, I did pretty close to the more mainstream folks from ESPN and CBS.  But, some of the other experts (and many of the other people who just do this because they like basketball) did much better than I did – I would have finished pretty close to the end of the Bracket Matrix standings.

But as I looked closer at it, I think it did tell me some interesting things (which I updated on the Bracketology page).   I am definitely glad I did this exercise – even though I would like to be closer, the more I look at my bracket, I think I did better.  A good example is that of the 13 first round upsets, I had seeded 6 of them better than the committee (including seeding Wichita St and Gonzaga much better).  I also give credit to much of my early success this year is due to the large amount of scouting of team’s resumes to come up with a bracket.

And since Villanova is beating Iowa by 30, I might do more looking at the differences in the bracket.

I will do a side note – I know Saturday I created a conspiracy theory due to the Kentucky / Indiana game.   So, I did an analysis to see if there was something suspicious.   If you look at the committee’s seedings and the bracket procedures, the Kentucky / Indiana game wasn’t a conspiracy as much as the necessary result of the committee’s procedure to fill the bracket.  The biggest difficulty was because the committee’s rules force them to put the 4 Big 12 teams and 4 ACC teams that were top 16 in different regions.  Because Iowa St couldn’t be put in Kansas’s region, Duke couldn’t be in UNC’s or Virginia’s region, and Cal couldn’t be in Oregon’s region, it basically forced where Kentucky (as well as the others) would be placed.   And with 3 of the Big 10 schools being 5 seeds, it was pretty much inevitable that Kentucky would draw a Big 10 school in their region (assuming they weren’t upset).

It still doesn’t stop the questions around the seedings (so I guess there could be some conspiracy of looking ahead).   But knowing how hard it is to seed the teams by going through the exercise myself, I imagine it is pretty hard for them to know they were setting up a Kentucky / Indiana matchup (because of all the other procedural rules).  So, while I think the seeding was still bad, it looks like the committee’s hands were forced once they came up with that ranking vs. a malicious attempt to make Kentucky’s road extra hard.

After a record setting 13 upsets in the first round, Saturday saw the top teams from the major conferences fight back.  Only two underdog by seeds were able to break the ranks of teams like Kansas, UNC, Virginia, Miami FL, Duke, Iowa St.   And it is hard for me to call Indiana – the Big 10 regular season champion a true underdog (they just should not have been playing Kentucky).  So, that really leaves just Gonzaga as a Cinderella story (and even that feels a little bit off with all the success Gonzaga has had over the years).

But 6 more double digit seeds (Syracuse, Middle Tennessee St, Stephen F Austin, VCU, Northern Iowa and Hawaii) will try to make their Cinderella run to the Sweet 16 today.  And one of them at least is guaranteed a trip as Syracuse and Middle Tennessee St play each other.    So should be another fun day of basketball.

Well, hopefully better than watching what Villanova is doing to Iowa right now…… No rooting interest – just not fun to watch a team getting blown out of the gym.   I feel a little bad for the Iowa Hawkeyes – this was a team that had made their way into the top 5 of the polls and have seemed to self destruct at the end of the season losing 5 of 6 going into the tournament before an overtime victory against Temple set up this unfortunate meeting with the Wildcats.  And I can’t put my finger on what happened to cause it.