Stomp The Lunatic – Page 105 – Just another WordPress site

The Bubble IS NOT SOFT!!!!!!!!!

March 13, 2014

It happens every year – someone comments about how soft the bubble is. Once again, I am sure they do it just to build conversation but it still rubs me the wrong way. This weekend, the ESPN Bubble Watch writer finally broke out this horrible statement (I am actually shocked I had not seen it up to this point). Eamonn Brennan brought out his typical soft bubble article – and as he said, Championship Week isn’t going to change that.

I hate when writers do this – because it diminishes the work that so many teams have done during the season. Lets looks at some of the soft teams that are on the bubble.

There is Nebraska – who finished 4th in the Big Ten, including victories against Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State.

How about Xavier – who finished tied for 3rd in the Big East, and was able to knock off both Creighton and Cincinnati.

We could talk about Dayton – who went 10-6 in the Atlantic 10 while being able to beat Gonzaga, UMass, St. Louis and George Washington – all likely tournament teams.

The last team in according to ESPN is Arkansas – who swept Kentucky, and beat fellow bubble teams SMU and Minnesota.

Do I think any of these teams are going to win the entire tournament. No – of course not. Do you remember a double digit seed every winning the tournament, so I think it is unfair to blame these teams because they are likely going to fall like other bubble teams have done. But they have not had bad seasons – they have been very strong teams, and have shown the capability on a given night to beat a top 4 seed.

But that brings me to the thing that really makes me upset about this. Lets talk about Horizon regular season champion Green Bay. During the non-conference season, the Phoenix had one of the more stunning upsets of the season when they beat eventual ACC regular season champion Virginia. This was after almost beating Wisconsin earlier in the season. These are teams that are figuring to be top 3 seeds – and they held their own with them. So, what else did the Phoenix do.

Overall, Green Bay went 7-3 in the non-conference against Division 1 opponents, with a win over Tulsa (one of the co-champs of Conference USA) and respectable losses to Harvard (the Ivy champion) and Eastern Michigan (a MAC team with a winning record and top 100 RPI – although we know the RPI is a flawed number). Then, Green Bay dominated the Horizon – going 14-2, only losing to Milwaukee (their main rival) and Valparaiso (in a game they played without their second leading scorer).   So, they would have been 21-4 if you don’t include the game their center was hurt.

Then, came the conference tournament, where they got upset by the same Milwaukee team that upset them in the regular season. And now, unfortunately to most, you have a small conference team with an RPI of 60 and no chance of getting invited to the Big Dance.

Brennan is so sure of this, that he didn’t even include the Phoenix in his Bubble Watch – although surprisingly, he still has Louisiana Tech – another one of the Conference USA co-champs on the list. Why is this surprising.

RPI: Green Bay (60)   Louisiana Tech (68)

Best Victory: Green Bay (Virginia – RPI 12), Louisiana Tech (Oklahoma – 22)

Non-conf SOS:   Green Bay (60), Louisiana Tech (288)

Overall SOS: Green Bay (163), Louisiana Tech (248)

Bad Losses:   Louisiana Tech (2), Green Bay (3)

So – of all the metrics that the committee harps on, Green Bay has the advantage over Louisiana Tech with the exception of Bad Losses. And even that is debatable. Unlike the 2 LT losses, 2 of Green Bay’s happened to the team that is going to be playing in the NCAA Tournament (Milwaukee) and 1 happened while they had a major injury.

But I digress – quite frankly, I believe both teams at least belong in the bubble discussion. But that is the thing that makes me so mad about writers saying the bubble is soft. Green Bay went 21-6, beat the ACC regular champ, lost by 3 to a team likely to be a protected seed, 3 of their other 5 losses are to teams who will also be dancing, and one of their losses happened without one of their best players. And this writer who says the bubble is so soft doesn’t even put this team on the list. They are not even good enough to be one of the weak teams being considered to get rolled over by a top seed in the tournament. This is a complete travesty, and an unbelievable amount of disrespect to what was truly a fantastic season for Green Bay.

They did everything they were supposed to do except for win the final 2 games of the season that mattered – the games they needed to win in their conference tournament to get the Horizon’s bid. The least that we can do if we are going to call the bubble soft is invite the Phoenix into the discussion – their resume deserves that.

I don’t know if Green Bay gets in. History says that regular season champions of small conferences that have RPIs greater than 50 don’t have a great chance. But if the committee decides to ignore history and ignore ESPN’s opinion, they will be picking a team that is very deserving of being invited to the dance and very capable of pulling the type of first round upset that is what makes the tournament so special.
Data junkies – go and start your research!!!
March 12, 2014
That’s right. In an incredible twist of fate, the Lunatic appears to be ahead of the game with getting box scores for all you statisticians out there who want to build the statistical model that will win this year’s contest.

For those of you who are not familiar with this tradition, I will give you some more details.

As many of you know, one of my insane features is that I try to provide people with data about the teams in case they want to do research on the teams. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games. Some of them have been extremely successful with this – especially Bill Kahn with his Bradley-Terry models, showing that even something extremely unpredictable as sports can be forecasted through good statistical techniques. But the part of this that has made me happy – and why I do this – is because a few people who were not statisticians but were taking a stats training course at work used this data for their class project and ended up having some success – including our 2006 champion, David Shaddick.

So, since that point, I decided to provide the scores to everyone in an attempt to provide people as much of a chance to try to leverage data to make their decisions. I realize that most of you will probably spend three to five minutes just looking at the teams and figuring who will do best – I probably don’t need a model to decide that the number 1 seeds will beat the 16 seeds… In fact, I typically spend so much effort maintaining the site that I just randomly pick late Wednesday evening.

However, if I can give people a chance to try to learn something about statistics in a very fun environment, it is well worth the effort. So, just click on 2014 Schedule in the Research menu and get an Excel spreadsheet with summary box score and standing / RPI information for each game for every Division I team.

Now – my disclosures:

I have updated the data as of Monday, March 10th – as the week goes on, I will continue to update this file. No promises on daily updates. But I will definitely update on Sunday once I can get all of Saturday night’s conference championships – that typically leaves you the complete schedule minus the 3 or 4 championships on Sunday.

I have gone through countless efforts to validate this data just to make the realization that I have no faith in validating this data. What I can tell you is my overall records match the standings pages you can see on the commercial sites (to a point – which will continue to explain).

There are two instances of games played between conference teams that are considered non-conference games. Rhode Island and George Mason from the Atlantic 10 played a non-conference game in November (believe it was on their schedules before George Mason joined the conference this year and they just decided to keep it). NC Central and Hampton from the MEAC also played a game in January. ESPN has it listed as a non-conference game and CBS has it as a conference game. When going to the MEAC website (yes, the MEAC has a website), they list it as a non-conference game – and so that is what I have listed it as well.

I have gathered neutral site games by going on the NCAA official site and checking where they said the games were neutral. Hopefully, I did not miss any but this is sadly not a straight forward process.

If I did, it would be tough to tell. This is because I have found that ESPN, CBS, and the NCAA site all disagree on whether the venue is a neutral site or not. I have obviously leaned on the NCAA site.

But then, I noticed that in one case between two Southland teams (my guess is this will not crush your analysis), the NCAA site had two teams (Grambling State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff in conference playing twice with both games at Arkansas-Pine Bluff. This made no sense to me – and so I kept digging and the box scores on the NCAA site even said the games were played at two different venues. So I am not sure how this translated to two home games for the one team. I chose not to change my data – which according to the box scores said they played a home and away.

My RPI standings, while close to what the NCAA published, is not a 100% match. This had me discouraged for several hours this weekend as I tried to figure out my error. Then, I had a realization. The CBS site and ESPN site don’t match what the NCAA published either. This is because CBS considered different games as neutral games, and ESPN included Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word – two first year provisional division 1 members which are not supposed to be included in the RPI calculation (and are not eligible for the tournament). I imagine ESPN has issues with the neutral games as well. So, at this point, I gave up. If ESPN and CBS with all their resources can’t get it right – and to be fair, the NCAA can’t even keep track of home and away games so their data is suspect as well, why should I have to be held accountable to this level of accuracy.

So – trust the data as much as you can. If you find serious errors in it, let me know and I will fix it for everyone.

Enjoy the data – but remember, don’t let it stop you from watching a couple of the games – they have been really good so far (although a little sad for a few regular season champions – which will have to be a post for another time).
Welcome to the 2014 Stomp the Lunatic Contest!!!!!!

March 8, 2014

We already know from previous blog posts that the Lunatic is just screaming to get out. The Lunatic still has a bunch of work to do to get ready – as it wouldn’t be the Lunatic contest without having tons of data and crazy analysis. But there is one thing that is ready – the main parts of the site. If you want to register early, you are welcome to do so – although obviously, you can wait until the Selection Committee actually announces the field of 68. All are welcomed to try to stomp the Lunatic. This feels like the time to have some kind of trash talk about how no one will beat the Lunatic this year. But we all know the truth – the Lunatic is crazy if he thinks that he will be able to pick better than all of you!!!!

Good luck to everyone in Stomping the Lunatic!!!!!
2014 User Blog

March 8, 2014

This is your opportunity to put your own thoughts on the tournament onto the site. Whether it be comments on the games, telling the world who you think will win, or simply wanting to have fun – this is your chance to be heard!!!!

My only rule is that you keep things clean – we have families who come to the site. I reserve the right to remove any inappropriate comments.

All you have to do is reply using the form at the bottom of the page!!!!
Congratulations to Harvard

March 8, 2014

Their 70-58 victory over Yale earned the Crimson the Ivy League regular season championship. And thanks to the fact that the Ivy League still rewards their regular season champion their automatic bid into the tournament instead of some team that gets hot for 3-5 days, Harvard managed to become the first team to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. No need to sweat out Selection Sunday like many teams will – the Crimson will be dancing. And at 25-4, this could be one of those Cinderella teams – the small conference champion that no one wants to face. Will the Crimson match their performance from last year, when as a 14 seed, they knocked off New Mexico. We will know in just a couple weeks!!!
Bracketology already pushing me into insanity

March 2, 2014

Those loyal to the Stomp the Lunatic Contest know my opinions of the Bracketology pages. For those who don’t, I feel they do a lot of teams a dis-service. My only hopes is that the Selection Committee ignores these folks – but it has got to be hard to not let it influence you. If Joe Lunardi from ESPN and Jerry Palm from CBS both say that Providence should be one of the last bubble teams in, how much does that make the committee think – maybe they’re right. If a committee member is questioning what is the right ranking for Ohio State and sees both “experts” listing the Buckeyes as a 6 seed – does that influence the ranking.

I totally think it is entertaining to read – and these guys put themselves on the line as they put their rankings out there for everyone to see. And in Lunardi’s case, you can even go backwards in the season and see previous rankings. But then they make these statements that just make my blood boil.

Lunardi is the one who pushed my buttons last night. When Joe put his last update on Thursday onto the ESPN page, he had the following rankings:

1 – Arizona, Florida, Syracuse, Wichita State

2 – Kansas, Duke, Wisconsin, Creighton

After Virginia’s dominating victory against Syracuse, there was a blurb from ESPN that it looked like Kansas would move up to the top line. That seems fair enough. Then came Oklahoma State’s upset of the Jayhawks. Which then included the next tweet…

“Keeping Kansas on the top line despite latest loss. Two reasons: (1) overall body of work; (2) rules still require four No. 1 seeds.”

OK – so I realize Twitter’s lack of characters allows for a lot of lack of clarity. But let me get this straight. Three days ago, based on important qualities “like body of work” – Joe felt Syracuse was the 3rd best team and Kansas was the 5th. Then, after Syracuse loses on the road to a team he currently had ranked as a 3 seed (and is now the ACC regular season champion) – and Kansas loses on the road to a team struggling to get to .500 in their conference and keep their tournament hopes alive, it becomes obvious that Kansas should be ranked higher because of only “body of work”.

I get it, a lot of top teams lost – and so it feels like no one is deserving the final top seed. But it seems awfully inconsistent to say body of work – Kansas’s body of work before yesterday’s game wasn’t better in his mind. So – how does losing to Oklahoma State (instead of Virginia) make that so obvious he should switch. I think it is fair to say that now that both teams have blemishes on their resume, the fact that Kansas is still going to win their regular season championship (barring collapse) will give them a leg up in getting the last top seed. But I don’t think you can claim body of work, when you weren’t saying that three days ago.

You might say, Tom – it doesn’t matter. Both Kansas and Syracuse will be in the tournament as a top 1 or 2 seed – it is irrelevant. But in my mind, it isn’t. Because if Joe uses this type of logic on the top of his bracket, he is likely doing it on the bottom as well. My only hope is that the committee doesn’t get influenced too much by these experts.

OK – back to getting the Lunatic site back up and running. I only have two weeks until the madness begins.
March is here!!!!!

March 2, 2014

We still have some time until the tournament – but March is here!!!!!!! So, that can only mean one thing – the Lunatic is coming out for another year of insane madness. Looking forward to the conference tournaments that are coming up!!!!!
Congratulations to our Winners!!!!

April 9, 2013

And now, the part you all have been waiting for – congratulations to our 2013 Stomp the Lunatic champion – Kyle Kelly. Kyle managed to catch our Upset champion, Rick Flynn by picking the Louisville Cardinals to win – giving him a 50 point victory.

Of course, don’t feel bad for Rick. Rick had one of the most memorable finishes – not only did he score the most ever points in the Upset Pool – with 322 points, his second entry picked Louisville to win and gave him both the 2nd and 3rd place entries overall.

Then, of course, we can’t forget Rich Feyerabend – our Second Chance champion. Rich successfully got every game in the Second Chance Pool correctly except for Wichita State’s upset over Ohio State. Just amazing to get 14 of 15 games right!!!!

Here are the full set of winners:

Standard Pool

1) Kyle Kelly – 1100

2) Rick Flynn – 1050

T3) Rick Flynn and Chris Franklin – 1040

5) Don Schumaker – 1010

6) Troy Cole – 1000

T7) Don Waite and Paschco Montoya – 990

T9) Adam Searles, Kynan Bush, and Brian Betz – 980

LAST) Clay Holloway – 250 (you should not have challenged Kyle!)

Upset Pool:

1) Rick Flynn – 322

2) Adam Davis – 297

3) David Gatewood – 254

4) Kyle Kelly – 248

5) Mark Horgan – 246

Second Chance Pool:

1) Rich Feyerabend – 960

2) Nick Kindig – 880

3) Thomas Pawlowski and Troy Cole – 800

The Lunatic is embarrassed to mention that 194 entries stomped the Lunatic – that was a thorough stomping!!!!!!! Well done by everyone in the pool in putting the Lunatic in his proper place!!!!

Thanks to all of you for making this such a fun pool – hope that everyone enjoyed the games!!!! Congratulations again to all our winners and of course, the Louisville Cardinals – the 2013 NCAA Men’s Basketball Champions.
Congratulations to the Louisville Cardinals!!!

April 9, 2013

What a fantastic game – the Cardinals had a couple of mini-runs in the second half, and despite the effort from Trey Burke, it just was not enough. And what an amazing week for Rick Pitino – gets inducted to the Hall of Fame, gets the news that his son has just gotten the head coaching job at Minnesota, and then becomes the first coach to lead two different schools to a National Championship (Kentucky in 1996 as well as this year’s Cardinals).

They played such a physical game, survived the foul trouble to almost everyone on the court, and had some huge offensive rebounds and baskets at the end of the game (Chane Behanan was a beast on the boards). Louisville played with such heart and I am sure that they are just as thrilled to win this game for their injured teammate.

Congratulations to the Louisville Cardinals – the 2013 NCAA National Champions!!!!
Benches on fire!!!!

April 9, 2013

One of the things that I love about college basketball is the unpredictability that happens because of the amazing passion that the players come out with. And it can make for some incredible story lines.

Leading up to the game, all eyes were on whether or not Trey Burke – college player of the year – could lead the Wolverines against the incredible pressure defense. Then, Burke gets two fouls relatively quickly – and reserve Spike Albrecht comes in. Albrecht averages a little over 7 minutes and scores 1.8 points per game. So, everyone has to expect that Spike would come out and hit 4 three pointers on the way to 17 points, leading the Wolverines to a 12 point lead.

But then, as the Cardinals did on Saturday, Louisville came charging back. But was it Russ Smith – no. The person who led the Cardinals back was reserve Luke Hancock – who hit four three pointers of his own to score 16 and bring the Cardinals back.

And so, after a crazy first half of runs, we are left with the Wolverines nursing a 1 point lead. And if the first half is any sign, we can honestly say that anyone in a jersey could end up being the hero over the last 20 minutes of the season. All I know is it should be a fun finish!!!!