Stomp The Lunatic

Thirteen lead changes in the first half have led us to a 31-31 tie at halftime.  Couldn’t ask for a closer game.

Interestingly, Wisconsin shot poorly for their standards – but second chance points helped them get to this point.   On the other hand, both Winslow and Okafor for Duke got 2 fouls relatively early – and managed to rest in the last 5 minutes without picking up their 3rd.  So, I imagine both teams right now feel lucky to be tied.

In pre-game, I remember hearing one of the CBS announcers mentioning the last time two #1 seeds played each other in the championship, the 2008 game went to overtime.   Could we be looking at extra time tonight????

Only 20 minutes of basketball will be able to answer the question.

It has been kind of a crazy tournament for the Lunatic.  We all know that the Lunatic’s crazy picks were able to get all 4 Final Four teams, and picked the Duke Blue Devils to survive the weekend at Indianapolis to win the title.

Kentucky was the first victim of the Lunatic curse – as their undefeated season was ended by the Badgers, along with the Lunatic’s delusional belief that he could win it all.  But he still can do extremely well if Duke wins.

Lets remember that Duke beat the Badgers by 10 points in December in Madison (although Sam Dekker wasn’t at 100% in that game).  So what is the line in Vegas.  That’s right – the Wisconsin Badgers are 1 point favorites.

Sam Dekker is a great player, but he still played.  And considering that home court advantage typically is worth a 4 point swing, that is a 15 point swing. (Editor note: it could just be that the Vegas model hasn’t changed – the Badgers were 4 point favorites in the December game – their model apparently was not swayed much by the Blue Devils victory).

To add to that, the CBS announcers gave their predictions, and all 3 of them predicted Wisconsin to win.

So, the Blue Devils are underdogs according to Vegas and the CBS experts despite the fact that they won earlier in the season – not to mention are coached by the winningest coach in NCAA history.   The only rational belief is that the mainstream has become aware of the Lunatic curse (and that this impact is approximately 15 points)….

Joking aside, it should be a fantastic game.  I can’t be happier in either result.   Obviously, I would like to see my picks do well.  However, how could you feel bad to see Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker win Coach Ryan his first NCAA Division I championship to go with his 4 Division III championships – as if Bo Ryan needs anything else to cement his place in history as one of the greatest coaches.

My guess is Troy Cole and Nathan Standley disagree with me – since their chance to make Stomp the Lunatic history ride on the success of the Blue Devils and Badgers.   So, whether you are rooting for history, the team you picked, the school you went to, your favorite team, or just a fantastic basketball game, I hope all of you enjoy tonight’s season finale – here is hoping it is truly spectacular.

With the game only about an hour away, I thought I would just point out this fun fact – just to put in perspective how great the two coaches in the championship game are.

If you combine the victories that Mike Krzyzewski and Bo Ryan have compiled through their amazing careers, they have won 1,757 games.

Most coaches would consider a season with 25 victories a great season.   You could coach 70 of those exceptional seasons – and you would be still 7 games short of reaching what these two men have done.

Is it possible that a missed shot clock violation ended a perfect season – or was it simply the Lunatic Curse finally realizing that the Tournament was happening and needed to go into effect?   No one will ever really know.

Frank Kaminsky was a dominating force, scoring 20 points in the game, and helping Wisconsin lead for most of the game.  It looked like the #1 team in the country had finally gotten things under control with 6 1/2 minutes to play when they took a 60-56 lead.   But Sam Dekker led Wisconsin to score the next 8 points – the start of a 15-4 run to finish the game.   This time, there would be no heroics from Aaron Harrison as his late three pointer was woefully short, and the Big 10 champions shock the Wildcats to make it to the championship game.

So, we have a rematch of the showcase game from this year’s ACC/Big 10 Challenge.  In that game, the Blue Devils waltzed into Madison, shot 65 percent from the field and beat the Badgers by 10.   However, the Badgers team that played tonight didn’t look like a team that will allow someone to shoot that hot on Monday night.   It should be a fantastic finish on Monday to determine the 2015 National Champions!!!!

Thanks to the Badgers win, the Crazed Lunatic’s reign of terror at the top of the standings has finally been ended.   Troy Cole has now claimed the top spot of the contest – holding a 10 point lead over Nathan Standley – as they both correctly got the final game of Duke playing Wisconsin for the championship.  Troy will be rooting for the Blue Devils and Nathan will be rooting for the Badgers to see who will be the 2015 Stomp the Lunatic Champion!!!

Good luck to Troy, Nathan – and all the rest of you who have a rooting interest in the game.   And of course, good luck to Duke and Wisconsin – hopefully, we will see one last great game on Monday night to close off the tournament.

 

I have to admit – after watching Michigan State jump out to a 14-6 lead in the first four minutes, I never would have guessed that Duke was going to steamroll the Spartans.  But that is exactly what happened – Jahlil Okafor was just way too much inside scoring 18 points, Justise Winslow added 19 and Quinn Cook put in 17 as the Blue Devils cruised to a 20 point victory.

Just not much to say – Duke just dominated this game.  They looked determined to make it to Monday’s night game, and there was just nothing that the Spartans could do in order to stop them.   It is now just a question of who they will play, as we get ready for the Wisconsin Badgers and Kentucky Wildcats get to replay their semifinal game from last season.

So, I was reading an article by Grantland (or ESPN – can’t decide if it is really separate) writer Mark Titus that I felt it would be fun to share – especially if you are a Michigan State Spartan fan……….

But if you believe in coincidences, fate, or other weird omens, check this comparison out between Michigan State, and last year’s national champion, the UConn Huskies.

TEAM	Michigan State (2015)	Connecticut (2014)
Pre-season Rank	#18	#18
Conference Record	12-6 (3rd)	12-6 (3rd)
Conference Tournament	Runner Up	Runner Up
NCAA Tournament Seed	#7 in East	#7 in East
2nd Round Game	Def #10	Def #10
3rd Round Game	Def #2	Def #2
Sweet 16 Game	Def #3	Def #3
Elite 8 Game	Def #4	Def #4
Final Four Opponent Seed	#1	#1
Other Two Teams Left	Kentucky, Wisconsin	Kentucky, Wisconsin
Result	???	Won National Title

If that isn’t coincidence enough, Mark Titus then finishes by mentioning this other interesting fact.   Tom Izzo won his only national championship at Michigan State when the Final Four was held in Indianapolis – where the Spartans were joined by Wisconsin, an ACC team from North Carolina (the Tar Heels), and a school from the SEC (Florida).

I don’t normally link to things – but it was actually a fun article – so have to give the writer credit where due.  He also has lots of fun stuff about the other teams.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/ncaa-tournament-march-madness-final-four-kentucky-wildcats-wisconsin-badgers-duke-blue-devils-michigan-state-spartans/

Just thought it was an interesting and fun look at the outlier team (since the 7 seed Spartans are surrounded by 3 #1 seeds), and another reason for Spartan fans to feel excited about tonight’s game.

It is so exciting – the Final 4 games are just a few hours away.   So, as I am crazy excited about the games tonight, I figured I would go ahead and do some of my normal ranting.

With only 3 games left, I figured I would look at each conference and give them a grade based on their performance vs. expected wins based on seed.

Big 10 (Grade = A+, Exp Value = +3) – Many have called this a down year for the Big 10, and yet, going into tonight, the Big 10 has the most teams remaining.  Everyone expected Wisconsin to be where they are, but the Spartans totally crashed the party.  Both Big 10 teams are underdogs tonight, and beating Kentucky and Duke will be really tough – but it will not shock me if the Big 10 continues to win in Indianapolis.

Pac 12 (Grade = A, Exp Value = +3) – The only reason this isn’t an A+ is because there is no Final 4 team.  While that might be unfair since seeds said they weren’t supposed to have one, it doesn’t feel right to give them an A+.  That being said, Arizona did what they were supposed to do, Utah upset Georgetown and kept things close against Duke, and UCLA was said by many that they shouldn’t have even been in the tournament – and they went to the Sweet 16 as well.  This was a great showing for the West Coast!

ACC (Grade = A, Exp Value = +1) – The ACC would have easily been an A+ and the highest ranked conference had it not been for Michigan State’s upset of Virginia.  While only Duke made it to the Final 4, the ACC had both Louisville and Notre Dame unexpectedly make the Elite 8, North Carolina State had one of the biggest upsets of the tourney by taking out Villanova to get to the Sweet 16, and UNC also played well to get to the Sweet 16.

Missouri Valley (Grade = B+, Exp Value = +1) – Wichita State upset Kansas to make the Sweet 16, and Northern Iowa played well to win their first game.  I think you need to at least get an Elite 8 team to get an A – but this is a great showing for a smaller conference.

SEC (Grade = B, Exp Value = 0) – I struggled with this.   On one hand, Kentucky got to the Final 4, which is a huge win for what is considered sometimes only a football conference.  But lets be fair, Kentucky is supposed to be here – they are 38-0 for a reason.  The only other win for the conference in the final 64 was Arkansas’ victory over Wofford (guess you can say Ole Miss beating BYU in the Tuesday game – but that feels weak).  I bumped them up a little because of having a Final 4 team, but this really just feels average.

Big East (Grade = D, Exp Value = -4) – Villanova being the first #1 seed to be knocked out was a huge blow for the conference.   Georgetown and Providence both lost a round earlier than they were supposed to, and the only team that went further than they were supposed to was Xavier – and while they played well, they were aided by only have to beat an 11 seed and 14 seed to get to the Sweet 16.

Big 12 (Grade = F, Exp Value = -5) – This was the season that the Big 12 was ranked better than both the ACC and Big 10 – and they were rewarded with 5 protected seeds that were expected to all be playing after the first weekend.  Instead, Baylor and Iowa State both lost to 14 seeds, and #2 seed Kansas lost in the second round.  The only team to make it further than they were supposed to was West Virginia – and their reward was losing by 39 points to Kentucky.

Special Note:  Didn’t really call out any of the smaller conferences outside the Missouri Valley.  But they were an interesting group if you combine them together.  First, Gonzaga got to the Elite 8 – which while they were supposed to – is still a big victory for a mid-major conference.  And Sun Belt champions Georgia State along with Conf USA champions UAB both pulled off the crazy rare upset as a 14 seed.  However, the other classically strong non power conferences like the Atlantic 10, American, and Mountain West all fizzled out with none of them making the Sweet 16.    And not a single 12 or 13 seed won a tournament game this year.   So it was a really spiky tournament for the smaller conferences.

This is unchartered waters – that have made me have to look through the results over and over again.  But thanks to the Crazed Lunatic’s insane picks correctly identifying the Final 4 participants, our resident crazy person has a 10 point lead in the pool.  Special congratulations also goes out to Pam Ciejek, who was the only other person who got all 4 of the correct teams playing in Indianapolis.

At this point, the Lunatic at 1010 points is beating the entry who put their name in as Kevin by 10 points, followed closely by Joe Haggerty (30 behind) and Chris Hamson and Charlie Hodgson (40 behind).

In the Upset Pool, Will Shipley has built an insurmountable lead with 292 points.  If the unofficial scenarios are correct, Will has successfully won the Upset Pool – congratulations Will!!!!  Currently, Will is being followed by Chris Hamson (261), Ann Hawkins (260) and Donna Woodburn and Peter Lifson (259).

In our Second Chance Pool, we have 5 perfect brackets.  Fantastic job by Butch Bisese, Paul Hamer, Brian Lawton, Heath Lindvall, and Josh Lacks.

Also, while it is never the award anyone wants, the money returned for Last Place in the Standard Pool also looks like it is locked up by Tracy Vail-Rhodes (as Duke’s victory today over Gonzaga took my wonderful wife’s picks out of last place

Assuming the scenario files are correct, here are the below potential winners.  Good luck to everyone!!!!!

 

	STANDARD	UPSET	SECOND CHANCE
Kentucky beats Duke	Charlie Hodgson – 1370	Will Shipley – 308	Heath Lindvall Josh Lacks Butch Bisese – 1040
Kentucky beats Michigan State	Nathan Standley – 1320	Will Shipley – 303	Lauren Martin – 1000
Duke beats Kentucky	CRAZED LUNATIC – 1410	Will Shipley – 302	Brian Lawton – 1040
Duke beats Wisconsin	Troy Cole – 1320	Will Shipley – 297	Troy Cole Jim Sell Brian Lawton – 920
Wisconsin beats Duke	Nathan Standley – 1310	Will Shipley – 297	Paul Hamer – 1040
Wisconsin beats Michigan State	Joe Haggerty – 1260	Will Shipley – 292	Dave Wagner – 1000
Michigan State beats Kentucky	Nathan Standley – 1160	Will Shipley – 297	Lauren Martin – 840
Michigan State beats Wisconsin	Kevin – 1120	Will Shipley – 292	Dave Wagner – 840

 

The Final 4 is now set, as the Duke Blue Devils just were too tough on defense and managed to go on two significant runs in the second half to finish off Gonzaga to win the South Regional in Houston.

Gonzaga made a run at trying to make the Final Four for the first time in school history – as they quickly turned a 5 point half time deficit to a 4 point lead.  But Duke quickly went on a 9 point run to take back control.  And then, the Blue Devils stopped Gonzaga from getting a basket from the field for the final 6 minutes to continue to pull farther and farther ahead.

Congratulations to the Duke Blue Devils – the final team to punch their ticket to Indianapolis.    If the games continue to be as close as they were this weekend, it will be an amazing Final Four!!!!!!

The East Regional Final was so awesome that they needed 5 more minutes to determine a champion.  It was a tale of two halves – in the first half, Louisville destroyed the Spartans in the paint and jumped out to an 8 point half time lead.  As Louisville was holding for the last shot in the first half (which they made), CBS posted a pretty amazing stat – the Cardinals had won 94 straight games where they had a lead of 6 or more at the half.

Only problem is no one told the Michigan State Spartans that the odds said the game was over.  Michigan State started driving to the basket, took the inside game away on defense and really opened up the game to having both some impressive drives and nice kick-outs for three to take the lead.  But neither team could hit the critical free throws at the end of the game to take the game – sending it to overtime.

Then, the Spartans kicked off the overtime with a big three-point shot that gave the Spartans a lead that this time, they would not give up.   Branden Dawson hit a huge tip-in with about 30 seconds left, and then Travis Trice hit two free throws to finish the game and send Michigan State to Indianapolis.

Congratulations to the Michigan State Spartans, our third team to reach the Final Four!