Stomp The Lunatic

Because this might not ever happen again with the talent in this pool, I must say it now.  I am sure it will be short lived, but when checking to make sure that the site had correctly loaded the Ohio State victory over Gonzaga, the Lunatic noticed a shocking sight.

Only 10 people are stomping the Lunatic!!!!   I almost fainted when I saw this – the Lunatic’s name being on the first page of the site only happens when I am testing the site before the tournament with 5-10 fake entries.

I am sure this won’t last long – after all, it is my insane picks that have Wichita State making the Final Four – which is obviously impossible.   But I might not be able to have a chance again to say it – so I figure I have to take advantage while I still can.

GO INSANE LUNATIC PICKS!!!!

Well – I obviously need to do more Internet analysis.  But as you know, I put in my 4 hours of effort to try to predict the bracket – in an attempt to show that it is not as hard as the mainstream sites make it seem.  Then, typically, I say how badly I did – because I have a crazy hard scoring system.  Well, apparently there is this site called the Bracket Project that tracks all these people.

This has made me aware of a few things.

• There are a crazy number of people who project the bracket.  There were 115 entries (assuming I counted right) this year.
• The mainstream isn’t as good as some of the fans / lesser known sites (although Brad Evans from Yahoo appears to be the best of the main sites).
• I might owe Jerry Palm an apology for my comment on his perfect bracket last year.  The bracket project says he missed two teams last year – so it must have been something I saw on CBS’ site that changed after the fact.
• I am not good at this – but I am not as bad as I thought (especially since I typically spend only Sunday afternoon coming up with it).  But I am still pretty bad.

In 2010, I finished in 66th of 84 brackets – in 2011, I was 71st of 90 brackets.  This year, I was 71st of 116 brackets.  So, I guess I am getting better.

More importantly, I think the comparison to the main site bracketologists is interesting.

2010	2011	2012
Jerry Palm (CBS) – 312 (65 of 65)	Andy Glockner (SI) – 323 (66 of 68)	Brad Evans (Yahoo) – 333 (67 of 68)
Brad Evans (Yahoo) – 308 (64)	Brad Evans (Yahoo) – 316 (66)	Joe Lunardi (ESPN) – 332 (67)
Ryan Fagan (Sporting News) – 303 (63)	Joe Lunardi (ESPN) – 310 (65)	Jerry Palm (CBS) – 329 (66)
Andy Glockner (SI) – 302 (64)	THE LUNATIC – 304 (65)	THE LUNATIC – 325 (67)
Joe Lunardi (ESPN) – 300 (64)	Jerry Palm (CBS) – 301 (66)	Ryan Fagan (SN) – 321 (66)
THE LUNATIC – 296 (63)	Ryan Fagan (SN) – 294 (65)	Andy Glockner (SI) – 321 (65)

So, I can’t claim that I am any good at this – but I think it proves my initial point of doing the bracketology.   I have actually beaten some of the main site providers – and if I could figure out seeding better, I could be competitive.  🙂   It also shows, if it is just about picking the correct number of teams, I am almost the same as the main sites.

Maybe one of these years I will put more effort into it and really try to beat the bracketologists.

 

If you are interested in this stuff, here is a link to the Bracket Project site.

 

First of all, I am going to state a disclaimer.  I am just a random fan – and so I only see the sound bites.  There could (and probably is) more to what is going on than I know.  But I am going to complain about them anyways.  It wouldn’t be the Lunatic contest without a few rants.  So, here we go.

It is time for me to pick on Jay Bilas.  For those that don’t read his columns on ESPN, he has created the Bilas Index – which he claims as ” the best measure of basketball merit and accomplishment ever contemplated by man. It is flawless and is, without legitimate argument, the finest measure of hoops knowledge ever dropped on this earth.”  OK – I am sure he is joking a little – but considering how stubborn he has been in the past, I am not 100% sure that he doesn’t somewhat believe this statement.  Bilas has gone on record of saying that he doesn’t believe we should have automatic qualifiers – if we are going to have a 68 team tournament, we should pick the top 68 teams.

While I understand his argument, I am so glad that the NCAA committee realizes how wrong he is, and continues to invite the automatic qualifiers from each conference.  If it was up to the Bilas Index, we would not have been able to witness Ohio, Lehigh or Norfolk State pull off their incredible upsets – nor would we have been glued to our sets to see if UNC-Asheville can upset Syracuse.   32 of the last 40 teams to make the Final Four are either regular season champions or conference tournament automatic qualifiers – and all 10 champions fall into this group.  Each conference deserves to send their champion to the tournament.   Maybe most of the time, the SWAC champion is going to lose their first round game.  But they have earned their way into the field, and I would rather see that than some 8-10/9-9 major conference team that is struggling to win multiple games in a row.

But since I criticize Jay – especially since he also didn’t back off his statements from last year that VCU didn’t belong in the tournament, I do have to give him some credit.  He did some really nice commentary about the Norfolk State upset – mentioning how the Spartans didn’t play like a 15 seed, and that it wasn’t Missouri playing badly that allowed the upset to happen – Norfolk State flat out beat Missouri.  Also, he is 26-6 in the ESPN bracket, which is by far the best of the ESPN analysts (and would be tied for the top of our contest).  He understands basketball – just wish he would be so over-the-top and stubborn with some of his points about the selection committee and who makes the tournament.

While I am on the topic of ESPN announcers, apparently they can’t do math.  Joe Lunardi has been critical of the committee in the past – saying that he believes that there should be a selection rule that you have to at least have a .500 record in conference to be eligible for the tournament.  I am actually supportive of this.  If you are 8-10 in your conference and don’t win your way into the dance through the conference tournament, you have shown you don’t have what it takes to win the championship.  However, after the brackets were released, both Lunardi and Dana O’Neil mentioned how they were glad that the Selection Committee followed this unwritten rule.  Only one problem – Connecticut didn’t have a winning record.  Even if you include the conference tournament, they finished 10-11 in conference (which is why it shouldn’t be a surprise they lost by 13 to Iowa State in their first game).  At least, O’Neill submitted a retraction and corrected herself.  But it surprises me that multiple analysts would have mentioned this when it wasn’t true (and easily researchable – where are ESPN’s editors).

And finally, since Syracuse is playing, I have to give my Jim Boeheim rant.  In a recent article in USA Today, Boeheim was called out by the US Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, who mentioned that “one Hall of Fame basketball coach told USA TODAY (last year) that the proposal to require teams to be on track to graduate half their players was, and I quote now, ‘completely nuts.’”   During Thursday’s postgame conference, Boeheim fired back with this quote.

“If two guys sign with an agent and leave, ’cause the agent says, ‘We got to go to Chicago and work out,’ those two guys leave and they’re ineligible because they don’t finish the semester, you lose two points for each guy,’’ Boeheim said. “That means of your 10 players, the other eight can be A students.  You know what your APR is?  Thirty-six out of 40 points.  That school is ineligible for the tournament.’’

He continued for several minutes on this until when the NCAA moderator tried to politely end the press conference due to time, Boeheim responded, “I’m not done.” and continued to take one last shot at Duncan – making a comment about Harvard, where Duncan played.

So, I have a few jabs to send back.  First of all, last time I checked, men’s basketball teams have 13 scholarship players – and according to Syracuse’s site, they have 20 players on the roster (must have some walk-ons).  So, 2 players going pro like Boeheim claims would not have as major an effect as he says.   Second, the APR has rules in place that adjust for players who go pro as long as they leave in good academic standing.  Considering Syracuse is an academic institution, I don’t think the NCAA is asking for much here.  And finally and most importantly, when your team has been under a cloud of controversy over actions by your assistant coach, your program is being investigated for playing ineligible players who failed your team’s drug policies, and one of your star players has been declared ineligible for the tournament for academic reasons (according to an ESPN report), you have no right to criticize how the US Secretary of Education has incorrect information and declare how committed you are to education.  And you certainly don’t have the right to interrupt the NCAA moderator – who is trying to do his job to get the press room ready for the next interview – so you can continue to criticize.

I believe that Boeheim does care about the education of his players – probably more than any of us know.  And with all the controversy around the program, it is amazing how the team stays focused and continues to win (they are just about to finish off Kansas State and make the Sweet 16).  But this post-game conference is not the time to take that stand.  Comment that you are glad you got past UNC-Asheville, you are going to get prepared to take on Kansas State, and move on.

OK – I have ranted enough for now.  🙂

 

 

 

I didn’t mean to not give Xavier and South Florida their due.   They were just victims of my need to get some sleep and it being really late.

But Tu Holliday led the Musketeers with a basket at 21 seconds to top off a rally.  Xavier came back from being down 10 in the second half to knock off the Irish on the early minutes of St. Patrick’s Day.   The only luck that the Irish had on St. Patrick’s Day was bad – with 2 seconds left, Notre Dame had a chance to tie the game from the FT line.  And Eric Atkins hit his first FT of the one-and-one, only to have it waved off due to a lane violation when the Irish left the 3 pt line too early to go for the rebound.   Then, they got an intentional foul called on them when they grabbed a Xavier’s player jersey – giving the Musketeers 2 FTs and the ball.  I am OK with the lane violation call, but the refs messed up with the intentional foul.  It might be the right call according to the book – but if you are going to let someone slap a person across the arm to stop the clock at the end of the game, I don’t see the difference between that and grabbing someone’s jersey to stop them from getting the inbounce pass.

As for the South Florida game, here is the fun stat of the game.  The Bulls started off the game hitting their first 2 FGs.  They then went for nearly 16 minutes – missing their next 22 shots from the field.   And after going 3-27 from the field in the first half, they found themselves only down by 4 points at halftime.  In the second half, Temple continued to struggle to score against the Bulls’ stifling defense, but South Florida started making some of their shots – and they slowly but surely built a double digit lead to finally win by 14.  And so as we did last year, one of the First Four entrants has won its next game, and is one victory away from the Sweet 16.   Can the Bulls repeat what VCU did last year?  (can VCU repeat what VCU did last year?)    Strangely, South Florida will be the favorite to make the Sweet 16 – since they will play 13 seed Ohio on Sunday – guaranteeing that we will have at least one Cinderella left by the end of the weekend.  Actually, we will be guaranteed at least two – since Xavier vs. Lehigh will also produce a double digit Sweet 16 team.

In the first 23 games, only 3 upsets according to seed had happened (VCU, Colorado and NC State).  Then, in the final 9 games, we had 7 more upsets (Norfolk State, St. Louis, Ohio, Lehigh, Purdue, South Florida, and Xavier).  Only top seed Michigan State and 2 seed Kansas were able to withstand Cinderella’s revolt.    Will Saturday return to Thursday’s form of the dominance of the favorites.  Or will Cinderella continue to try to stay and dance.

To your call once more we rally, alma mater hear our praise.

Where the Wabash spreads its valley, filled with joy our voices raise.

From the skies in swelling echoes come the cheers that tell the tale

Of your victories and your heros, Hail Purdue! We Sing All Hail!!!

Hail, Hail to Old Purdue!  All Hail to our our old Gold and Black!

Hail, Hail to Old Purdue!  Our Friendship may she never lack

Ever Grateful, Ever True, Thus we raise our song anew

Of the days we’ve spent with you,  All Hail to Our Own Purdue!!!!!

GO BOILERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Congratulations to the Boilers on getting to the Round of 32!!!!!!!!

 

Well, there is always a moment in the tournament where you watch the tournament go into insanity.   It is amazing to say, but Norfolk State was just the tip of the iceberg.

In honor of having the 5th ever 15 seed win a tournament game, Cinderella bonded together to sweep the 7 pm games.  First, there were the smaller upsets.  9 seed Saint Louis take out Memphis and my beloved Boilermakers hold on after getting up by double digits to sneak away with a 3 point victory over St. Mary’s.

But those were small upsets in comparison.   MAC Champion Ohio played a great game to take out 4 seed Michigan.  And then, not to be outdone, Patriot Champion Lehigh became the 6th ever 16 seed to win a tournament game, as they took out number 2 Duke.

I know if I was Michigan State, Kansas, Temple, or Notre Dame in the nightcap, I would try as hard as I could to get up early and remove any doubt.  Because the momentum has started, and if they are not careful, they will become another statistic in this crazy evening.

I might have been wrong about it being unlikely that all 8 favorites win on Thursday afternoon.  But I am very sure, that it was extremely unlikely to have two 15 seeds, a 13 seed, a 10 seed and 9 seed win in 5 consecutive games.  But that is what we love about March!!!!

And here I was complaining that there wasn’t enough upsets.   What we are lacking in quantity, we are getting in quality.  North Carolina State became the third double digit seed to win in the early games.  But the real quality came in Omaha, Nebraska.

That is where #15 seed Norfolk State became only the 5 team of that seed to win against their first game of the tournament – in this case, the victim was #2 Missouri.  (Bill – since you are looking for test cases, my guess is that the Spartans winning this game was more unexpected than the first 8 favorites from yesterday winning. 🙂

Regardless of the odds, Norfolk State hung in their the entire game, and then with a rebound of an errant three point shot with just 34 seconds left, Kyle O’Quinn put the ball in while getting fouled, and sank the FT to give the Spartans the lead for good.  And this small school from the MEAC entered its name into the amazing history of the NCAA Tournament – as one of the most improbable upsets of the tournament

Congratulations to Norfolk State!!!!!!!!!!

Thank you to Richmond’s own VCU Rams for providing the first upset of the tournament!!!!  Someone had to break the ice, why not let it be last year’s Cinderella story!!!!  Congratulations to the Rams!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow – eight for eight for the favorites.  That in itself has to be unexpected.  There were a few close runs, including a very exciting attempt at history by #16 seed UNC-Asheville – but in the end, the chalk has moved on.  And that means that we have 116 perfect brackets so far.  Just amazing!!!!  Standings look to be tight at the end of the night.  Maybe VCU, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, or Colorado can help provide some excitement for those of us who crave upsets.  (sorry – I can’t consider Connecticut an upset – even Vegas is listing the 9 seed as the favorite in this game).