Stomp The Lunatic

Everyone should be afraid of spiders! All the teams from the Atlantic 10 (especially Dayton and VCU – since this particular version of scary spiders cost them a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament) already knew about these dangerous Spiders.

After invading the Atlantic 10 tournament in Washington, DC, these Spiders took the conference autobid, knocked Dayton out of the at-large pool, and the selection committee sent them to Buffalo, NY expecting that the Big 10 tournament champions would send them back to Richmond.

The Spiders had other plans. Iowa shot 36.8 percent from the field from three point range as a team this season (including Iowa’s leading scorer Keegan Murray and Kris Murray who both shot over 40 percent). Well – the Spiders put a web over the basket, as the Murray’s went 0-8 and the Hawkeyes went 6-29 (20.7 percent) from behind the arc.

To be fair, there were some questionable calls towards the end – such as when Kris Murray clearly got fouled shooting a three pointer and it wasn’t called. But the Spiders still managed to hit their free throws and hold off the Hawkeyes’ last ditch efforts to catch up.

At the end, it was 12 seeded Richmond winning 67-63. These Spiders will be continuing to build their webs in Buffalo’s KeyBank Center, and they have the 4 seed Providence Fryars in their sights.

Be afraid of Spiders! Very aftaid!!

It looks like we have around 315 entries this year who have decided that they know more about college basketball than the Lunatic!!! And knowing how I do, I am sure most of them are right!!!

When I get home, I will do some final validations to make sure everything looks OK. It is always a good idea for you to do a quick check on the Standings page and make sure your picks are there. Let me know if you see any issues.

In the meantime, it looks like Colorado State and Providence have jumped out to small first half leads – if that holds up the Lunatic will go 0-2 to start. Looks like the Stomping is ready to begin!

Good luck to everyone in Stomping the Lunatic!!!

So crazy. Rutgers is down 2 with about 45 seconds, Harper banks a three-pointer to give Rutgers the lead. Rutgers got the stop – all they needed to do was inbound it. But Notre Dame’s Cormac Ryan steals the ball and lays it in to regain the lead. Rutgers sets up a play where Baker drives to the basket and instead of taking the last shot kicks it out to a wide open Paul Mulcahy – and Rutgers leads by 2 with 8 seconds to go. The Irish charge down the court and Blake Wesley lays it in with a couple seconds to tie the game. Harper gets the ball takes it to half court, I have flashbacks to December when he ended my Boilers time as the #1 team in the country, but this time the ball hits the backboard and bounces harmlessly to the court. So we go to double overtime

The Lunatic doesn’t need any sleep. He still has to handicap Thursday’s games – but how can he concentrate when Rutgers and Notre Dame are going to overtime.

It is so funny. One of my colleagues is a Rutgers fan – and I told him that I really want Rutgers to sneak into the tournament, so that they can play in a tight game, and like the Rutgers guards have done to multiple top Big 10 teams, Ron Harper Jr or Geo Baker would get the ball with time running out and hit a shot at the buzzer to win the game.

And with 40 seconds in a tie game, Rutgers got the ball. Baker ran the shot clock down and passed it to Harper for three – but no, it misses. But wait, Paul Mulcahy pulls down the offensive rebound and kicks the ball back out to Baker. Rutgers now has the final shot. And this time, the ball isn’t leaving Baker’s hands, he drives, he gets to the key, he fades away from the Notre Dame defender (who played really good defense considering the situation), and the shot comes up short.

So we head to overtime – sorry to Gary that my vision didn’t come true in regulation. But the night is still young…..

This is the picks that go with my heart rather than my logic. The sane picks are a decent base and I will keep most of them – but I have to switch up the teams. I want a couple of double digit teams in the Sweet 16 (which was really hard for me since I like a lot of the 3 seeds). I also am going to change up some of the Final 4.

Breaking down the West – Memphis and the Rutgers/ND winner still advance. But I am going to have New Mexico State finally pull of that upset after multiple years of disappointment. And I am going to have Michigan State beat Davidson, because you should not bet against Tom Izzo in March. In the second round, Gonzaga, Arkansas and Texas Tech advance, but Michigan State continues their path by upsetting Duke. Gonzaga will then take out Arkansas in the Sweet 16 and Texas Tech in the Elite 8 to make it back to the Final 4.

Breaking down the East – this is obvious on where the big change happens. I still have Indiana and Virginia Tech as upsets. But this time, I have Murray State beating San Francisco (the line has shifted a lot since the start – according to covers.com, everyone is betting on Murray State so who am I to argue with the masses). We will keep the Sweet 16 as the huge UNC upset on Baylor, UCLA, Purdue and Kentucky. But in this case, my Boilermakers beat Kentucky in the Sweet 16 and UCLA in the Elite 8 to finally reach the Final 4.

Breaking down the West – TCU, Michigan and Loyola have the first round upsets. Since I want to try to have another 5 seed advance, we will see Arizona go against Houston while Tennessee still goes against Loyola IL (as my wife liked to say when they went on their amazing run, they have God on their side). I need to switch up my winners a little, so I will be crazier. Tennessee is going to end Loyola’s Cinderella run, and then upset Arizona to show their SEC Tournament championship was not a fluke – they are a Final 4 team.

Breaking down the Midwest – Creighton, South Dakota State and Miami FL still advance – but so does Iowa State. With LSU firing their head coach, while they are a better team than Iowa State, I believe LSU is going to have too many distractions. I also need another double digit team to make the Sweet 16, so I am going to have Miami FL upset Auburn to join Wisconsin, Kansas and Iowa. Then, the favorites go on – Kansas will beat the two Big 10 schools to get to the Final 4.

Since these are my crazy picks. we will continue to have my heart win – Purdue upsets Gonzaga in the semi-finals, and upsets Kansas in the championship to win the 2022 NCAA Championship. With talents like Jaden Ivey, Zach Edey and Trevion Williams, they certainly have a chance. Have to support my Boilers – BOILER UP!!!!

I decided to use a very systematic approach to this – it creates a relatively chalky type result, but it meets some typical rules.

In the first round, I am going to use the Vegas line to handicap. If Vegas thinks the favorite is only going to win by 2.5 or less points, I am going to pick an upset. In many cases, this matched what I mentioned in the Bumper Night Podcast, so I feel good about it. This leads to upsets by Memphis, Rutgers/ND (I don’t have time to wait for the line to get set), and Davidson in the West. In the East, I get Indiana, Virginia Tech and San Francisco. In the South, TCU, Michigan and Loyola will have upsets. In the Midwest, we get Creighton, South Dakota St and Miami FL advancing.

In the second round, we assume the chalk gets its revenge – at the end of the day, the championship tends to be decided by teams that are in the Top 12 teams – so try to have as many of them in the Sweet 16 as possible. The only non-protected seeds (top 4) that happen are UNC beating Baylor, Loyola beating Villanova, and Iowa beating Cinderella South Dakota St.

In the Sweet 16, we have mostly conference champions (regular season or tournament) – the only place that I am going to avoid is the West where I am going to let things break down. So, I have Texas Tech upseting Duke and Arkansas upseting Gonzaga with Texas Tech winning the West. In the East, UCLA ends UNC’s run, while Kentucky sadly beats Purdue – with Kentucky taking the East. In the South, Arizona and Tennessee advance – with Arizona winning the region. And in the Midwest, the chalk advance with Kansas beating Auburn in the final.

That leads to Arizona cutting down the nets in New Orleans by beating both Kansas and Kentucky.

It was a physical game – and both teams came out very cold from the field. But Indiana came through with a 66-58 victory over Wyoming. That’s a bad sign, since I locked Indiana in my handicapping. This is just trying to build up my confidence before my picks fall apart.

Not sure this is my sign that the Big 10 teams are for real this year. Indiana did what they needed to win but they were struggling to score against a physical Wyoming team. We get another insight into the Big 10 tonight as Rutgers plays Notre Dame tonight.

At this point, we have 100 entries in the pool – don’t forget to send in your picks for a chance to Stomp the Lunatic!!!

They deserve congratulations for two reasons. The obvious reason is that the Tigers were the first team of the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship to win a game, as they beat Texas A&M – Corpus Christi 76-67.

The second reason is that Texas Southern managed to win their game despite the fact that the Lunatic picked them to cover the spread in his handicapping page. Which we all know is a remarkable feat! Apparently I do well picking games when I have never seen either team before.

It has been crazy busy for the Lunatic! The Bumper Night Podcast with Kevin Flippen and Paul Gilman was extremely fun – if you missed it, go check it out on YouTube and subscribe. They have fun topics each episode – typically each Monday night!!!!!

I am not sure that I will stick with my picks from the show. I hate picking so much chalk – so I am going to look again and see what kind of upsets I can pick. My son Charlie said that I was lame for picking Arizona as the favorite – boring. He might be right – but as much as I might not like it, top seeds tend to win. 32 of the last 36 National Champions were from the top 3 seed lines. And 23 of those 32 were won by #1 seeds. So boring might be lame, but it is also right 64% of the time.

I am going to try to get the handicapping site up and running and at least pick the two games tomorrow before I head to work. I guess I have to – Charlie has a soccer game so I won’t get home before the first game starts. So, check out how the Lunatic’s imaginary Vegas run begins.

I also at some point will have to see how bad I did against the bracketologists. I missed two teams (Wyoming and Rutgers instead of Texas A&M and Oklahoma). To be honest, I actually am happy that the committee went with Wyoming and Rutgers. Happy for Wyoming because the committee awarded a talented non-power conference school. Happy for Rutgers because the committee ignored the computer rankings and looked at who Rutgers was able to beat. I am glad that Oklahoma didn’t get in at just 3 games over .500 – I thought they would get in like Michigan, but not going to complain. Texas A&M being out is rough. I guess it means the conference tournaments don’t really count towards getting into the tournament. But the Aggies’ resume was flawed as well as other bubble teams, and to be honest, I am not exactly sure who I would remove to give the Aggies a spot (if I keep Wyoming and Rutgers).

Well – I am going to pick the two Tuesday play-in games tonight, and try to go to bed before midnight. Columns about how bracketology did or how I think the selection committee did can wait for another evening.

Hope everyone had a happy Pi Day!!!!