Stomp The Lunatic

It is that time as I look for something to bide the time until Saturday.   I could watch the NIT championship – where Penn State is playing Utah.   But lets face it – it is more fun to rant.

In my grading, I rank based on how they do against their expected seed performance – and then I made some adjustments to come up with a final grade, because it is my rant.

America East – A+ (+1) – They only won a single game.  But unless Loyola-Chicago continues to win the entire championship, the most memorable moment of this tournament will be from UMBC.  Assuming one of the blue bloods win, 20 years from now, people will likely even have a hard time remembering off the top of their head who won the championship this year.  But everyone will remember this is the year a 16 seed beat a 1 seed.  UMBC will be showed every time a 16 seed even comes close to winning a game – it might be every time a 1 seed plays their first game.  That is one hell of a victory.

Missouri Valley – A+  (+4) – Loyola-Chicago was a trendy pick as an 11 seed to pull a first round upset.  Then, the Ramblers went and beat Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State to make the Final Four.  They are only the 4th 11 seed in history to make it this far.  If they can pull two more upsets, they will become the most unexpected champion in NCAA history.  While UMBC had the most memorable victory, it was one game.  Loyola has won 4 games and is looking to rewrite history.

Big 12 – A+ (+4) While Kansas was a number 1 seed, even Vegas didn’t think they were going to win the Midwest.   Now the Jayhawks are in the Final 4.  Texas Tech and Kansas State both made the Elite 8 – and Kansas State was a 9 seed.  West Virginia also made it to the Sweet 16.  Only 1 of the Big 12 teams fell to an upset (TCU lost to Syracuse).  Of the major conferences, the Big 12 clearly did the best.

Conf USA, MAC, Mt West and Atlantic 10 – A+ (+3.5) Marshall won as a 13 seed to represent Conf USA.   Buffalo won as a 13 seed for the MAC – completely destroying Arizona.  Nevada from the Mountain West overcame a late-season injury to one of their starters to make it all the way to the Sweet 16.  And Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure both won games for the Atlantic 10.    As a combined group, these mid-majors pulled off some memorable upsets in the tournament.

Big 10 – A- (+0) The Big 10 only got 4 teams in the tournament.  But one of those teams, Michigan, is still playing in San Antonio.  The Wolverines made up for upsets to Purdue and Michigan State.   However, I also give the Boilermakers a little bit of credit for managing to win their second round game despite losing their star center.  All in all, the Big 10 did very well in the tournament.

Big East – B (-3) The Big East is down 3 because of Xavier getting upset in the 2nd round to Florida State when they were supposed to be playing in the Final Four.  However, Villanova is playing in the Final Four, and is likely the favorite to cut down the nets in San Antonio.  With the Wildcats being in the Final Four, it is hard for this grade to be worse than a B, even with Xavier’s early exit.

SEC – B- (-1)  Regular season co-champsTennessee and Auburn were supposed to make the Sweet 16 and ended up leaving early in the 2nd round.   Kentucky and Texas A&M picked up the slack and made the Sweet 16.  But Kentucky blew a great chance to take the South when Virginia went down.  And while seeds didn’t expect the SEC to get pass the Sweet 16, it has to be considered a little bit of a disappointment that they had 8 teams and couldn’t get one of them to the Elite 8.

ACC – C (-1.5)  Virginia will go down in history as the first 1 seed to lose to a 16.  3 of the top 6 seeds according to the Selection Committee were from the ACC, and the ACC had 9 teams in total in the tournament.  Yet, in a conference that measures success in number of National Championships, there are no ACC schools making the trip to San Antonio.  This grade would be much lower if it wasn’t for Florida State’s impressive run to the Elite 8 from a 9 seed, Duke making it to the Elite 8 as they were supposed to, and Syracuse surprising everyone as going from the last at-large team in to the Sweet 16.   But a couple of nice upset stories is not how the ACC typically is measured – this year was not good for the conference most consider as the best in college basketball.

American – D- (-4) – A lot was made of the fact that Wichita State upgraded from the MVC to the more talented American Conference and they were rewarded with a 4 seed.  They took that reward and lost to Marshall (and meanwhile, the conference they left has a team in the Final Four).  Cincinnati was supposed to get to the Elite 8 as a 2 seed, and they lost to another mid-major team in Nevada.  This was supposed to be the year where the American was going to show that they are as good as some of the major conferences, and they left with only two wins for their star teams.

Pac 12 – F (-3)  Lots was made about that it was unfair that the Pac 12 only got 3 teams in the tournament.  And then UCLA and Arizona State both had to go through the play-in games in Dayton.  But then, UCLA lost to mid-major St. Bonaventure.   Then, Arizona State lost to Syracuse, the last at-large team to make it into the dance.  But everyone still expected Arizona to do well.  Then, the Wildcats with a player who is potentially going to be one of the top 3 players drafted by the NBA lost by 21 points to Buffalo.  The Pac 12 could have came out and showed how they deserved more teams in the dance.   And instead, this major conference’s season was over by the time Thursday in the first round was over.

There are so many stories – including conference commissioners coming out and saying that the NCAA needs to put in ridiculous requirements saying that players can’t go to the NBA Draft for multiple years if they come to play college ball.  But how bad are one and done players ruining the game.

So, I went to ESPN’s NBA Draft site to see who are the top 25 college freshman – if they declare for the draft (some will obviously come back).

You will notice a really interesting thing from the list.  None of the top 25 college freshman go to school at Villanova, Kansas, Michigan or Loyola-Chicago.  That’s right – none!

If Duke had beat Kansas, 4 of them would have been playing since the Blue Devils have Marvin Bagley III (2nd), Wendell Carter Jr (10th), Trevon Duval (14th), and Gary Trent (24th).  But none of those talented freshman could seem to stop Malik Newman from scoring 32 points.

Kentucky had 6 of the top 25 freshmen, and the best they could do was losing in the Sweet 16 to a Kansas State team seeded worse than them.   Not that making the Sweet 16 is bad, but you would think that a team that has two of the top 15 players in the country (and two others who would be drafted according to the rankings) would be able to beat a team that has no one in the top 60.

All in all, 15 teams had a top 25 freshman (well 24, one player Mitchell Robinson apparently agreed to play at Western Kentucky and then never went to WKU – but I don’t know much about this story….)

• 2 had no postseason (Dayton and UNLV)
• 1 lost in the NIT (Oregon)
• 7 lost in the first round of the NCAAs (Arizona, Arkansas, Miami, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia Tech)
• 2 lost in the second round (Michigan St and Alabama)
• 2 lost in the Sweet 16 (Kentucky and Syracuse)
• 1 lost in the Elite 8 (Duke)

So, 20% of the teams with potential one and dones didn’t even make the tournament, and 67% of the teams with potential one and dones couldn’t get past their first round opponent.  And none of the teams with this amazing NBA talent on their team made the Final Four.

So, if the teams that have talent that sticks around in college for a few years are the ones playing for the championship, how is it again that the one and dones are ruining the game.

The real problem for college basketball is if these kids are likely one and done, their chances of taking money and ruining the reputation of their coaches is more likely.  The only thing that one and done players appear to be ruining is the naive reputation of amateurism in college basketball.  I normally side with the NCAA on how players shouldn’t be paid – they are already getting paid with a free education.  But this request from the NCAA that forces student-athletes to stay at the university for multiple years ends that.  If an athlete is good enough to make it to the professional level, the NCAA has no right to restrict that.

 

There is a video out there on ESPN where Stephen A Smith says that he doesn’t want to see Cinderella in the Championship game.  To be fair, he was not disrespectful in any way against Loyola – he said they had a great season and their Cinderella run is a nice story.  But he did say that while Cinderella is nice in the early rounds he wants to see the top 2 teams in the Championship game, and between Loyola-Chicago and Michigan, he wants to see the Wolverines because Michigan is clearly the better team.

But here is a thing to think about.  Loyola-Chicago started off the season 9-1, with their only loss being a road game to Boise State (the runner-up in the Mountain West).  Their ninth win was an important one – this was the one that they went on the road and beat Florida.  It was also important because they lost Clayton Custer in that game to an ankle injury.

In the next five games, the Ramblers would lose three of them.   Since Custer returned to action in their road game against Northern Iowa, Loyola-Chicago has won 21 of their next 22 games, with their only loss being a 2 point loss on the road to Bradley.  Of course, in those wins includes one against Miami FL from the ACC, Tennessee (the SEC regular season co-champion), Nevada (the Mountain West regular season champion), and Kansas State from the Big 12.

This team has gone 30-2 in games where their star guard has played.  I totally understand that they are in a smaller conference.   I totally understand that Michigan is also a very hot basketball team at the moment.  Being from the Big 10, I even think that Michigan probably wins this game.  But there is a reason they play the games.  If basketball was played on paper, we wouldn’t have needed to have a tournament – we could do what the BCS used to do for college football and have Virginia play Villanova for the championship (and we would be listening to experts complaining about why Kansas, Xavier, North Carolina or Duke deserved to play in the game instead of Villanova).

People anchor to rankings and seedings.   Loyola is an 11 seed – the Selection Committee had them ranked as the 46th team in the tournament.  But this is because the mid-majors don’t get the chance to play anyone.  We give the argument all the time that if the Big 10 or ACC team played in the Missouri Valley Conference, they would probably be better than 15-3, so lets turn the argument.  If Oklahoma (ranked 40th) had to play a 5 game schedule, with a road game against Florida followed by neutral court games against Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State, how many of us believe they would go 5-0 (by the way, in case this influences your decision, the Sooners were 3-11 away from their home court this year).

Florida beat Gonzaga (15) and Cincinnati (8) on neutral courts and Kentucky (17) and Auburn (13) at home.  Tennessee beat Purdue (7) on a neutral court in November (not to mention Kentucky on the road).   So, there are 5 teams the committee ranked in the top 17 that didn’t go undefeated against that schedule (and they didn’t even play all 5 games).  This Loyola team is more comparable to those top teams than they are to ones that were 10 and 11 seeds like Oklahoma or Arizona State.   But because only one of those games happened before the tournament, the committee doesn’t give the small conference team the benefit of the doubt – they must have simply ran up a bunch of victories against poor teams.

If Loyola beats Michigan on Saturday, they will still be Cinderella – because they are an 11 seed from the Missouri Valley Conference.   But to say that they aren’t one of the top two teams is unfair.   If a team wins 31 of 33 games, including games against the SEC co-champion and Big 10 tournament champion, there is no one who should say that team isn’t one of the best.   If Loyola-Chicago beats Michigan and gets to the championship game, we should all be excited about having the chance to watch history as a mid-major champion demonstrates that they are truly one of the best teams in basketball – not feel cheated because we are not watching the best teams play.  Cinderella might have started off in rags, but she ends up being a princess because she was the best of all who came to the dance.

As always, these links produce unofficial outcomes.  But it is always fun to look ahead – assuming I didn’t make any mistakes, here are the people with the most riding on the Final Four!

First of all, lets congratulate Christy Lindvall.  She appears to be the winner of the Upset Pool.  It is rare to have completely wrapped up one of the pools before the Final Four is even played – but Christy looks like she has done it.  Great job, Christy!!!!!!

Now, for the Standard Pool and Second Chance Pool.

Kansas beats Loyola-Chicago – William England (Standard) / David Ogle (Second)

Kansas beats Michigan – Christy Lindvall (Standard) / David Ogle (Second)

Loyola-Chicago beats Kansas – Tanmay Gautam (Standard) / David Ogle (Second)

Loyola-Chicago beats Villanova – Haden Hopkins (Standard) / Matt Richter and Dan Fischer (Second)

Michigan beats Kansas – Tanmay Guatam (Standard) / Matt Richter (Second)

Michigan beats Villanova – Matt Richter (Standard) / Matt Richter (Second)

Villanova beats Loyola-Chicago – Haden Hopkins (Standard) / Dan Fischer (Second)

Villanova beats Michigan – Haden Hopkins (Standard) / Dan Fischer (Second)

 

Check the links out to see what teams you should be rooting for if you still have a chance to make it on the leaderboard.   Good luck to everyone!!!!

At this very critical time of the Stomp the Lunatic Pool, our leader is Tanmay Gautam.  In this crazy tournament, he managed to get 3 of the 4 Final Four teams correct, only missing on Cinderella (like every single one of us did).  That gives Tanmay 830 points and the lead with only 3 games remaining.  Of course, those 3 games are worth so many points that the lead could change hands quickly, but Tanmay is in the wonderful position that if Michigan beats Kansas as he predicted, he will be the 2018 Stomp the Lunatic Champion.

Following Tanmay is Haden, just 30 points behind in 2nd place.  Then, William England is in third at 780, Andrew Braslow is in fourth at 760, Stephen Harrell and Matt Richter are tied for fifth at 750, Jen Miller and Christy Lindvall are tied for 7th at 720, and Sam Luy and William England’s second picks round out the top 10 at 710 points.

In the Upset Pool, I don’t think anyone can catch Christy Lindvall.   Christy correctly got both Loyola and Syracuse to the Sweet 16, and then correctly picked Michigan to the Final 4 (along with Kansas) – so she has 276 points.  Triona Weeks is in second place with 259 points, Alex Simon is in third at 236 points, Edward Zhang is at 222 in fourth, and Andrew Braslow rounds out the top 5 at 221 points.  The max points someone can get for Villanova or Kansas winning is 11 points, and so the only real movement is going to be due to Michigan – who can get 15 points for getting to the championship and an additional 18 points for the winning.

We have a three way tie for the lead in the Second Chance Pool, as Matt Richter, Dan Fischer and David Ogle are all at 480 points.  But there are 7 people just 40 points behind, and 10 people just 80 points behind, so still lots of chances there.

The Lunatic looks like he will be well stomped.  At 112th place and with only Villanova left to survive the horrible Lunatic Curse, he is unlikely to threaten the leaders (although I guess a Villanova win could at least move him up a little bit in the standings and make it a respectable showing..)     But knowing the Lunatic Curse, it would be more likely that Kansas takes them out the way they did to Duke this afternoon.

I also have to give Sam Luy a lot of credit in potentially one of the oddest moments in Lunatic Pool history.  Sam’s first bracket is in 9th place, but in the awkward place that he can not get any more points since he had the two teams he got correct (Michigan and Villanova) losing to the two teams he got wrong with Virginia and Duke.   Still, Sam is guaranteed a prize.  While he is likely going to get passed at the top of the leaderboard, his second picks have already been passed by everyone (well, except for Liying Gong and Hailey Peterson who entered for fun).  Sam’s upset picks of Virginia beating Michigan State with Gonzaga and Butler joining them at the Final Four got eliminated quickly and only scored 270 points.    I might have to go back and see, but I don’t remember a time when one of our leaders had their other picks in last place – but in a tournament of firsts, it seems only fitting.  The normal line is Sam – you should not have challenged the Lunatic.   But to be fair, the Lunatic is getting crushed so badly, it is really that you shouldn’t have challenged Tanmay and Christy (our Standard and Upset leaders).

If you are still hanging in reach of the leaders, good luck to all of you next weekend!!!!  Otherwise, find a favorite team to root for, or simply get behind Cinderella (because if you were knocked out and not a Michigan, Villanova or Kansas fan, you have to love the idea that the Missouri Valley Champion could be the NCAA Champion).  This tournament has given us a historic 16 seed beating a 1 seed and a 11 seed making the Final Four – so you have to believe that anything can happen in San Antonio.  Should be lots of fun to watch!!!!

After yesterday’s regional finals of surprise teams, the first semifinal today showed off how dangerous the #1 seed Villanova Wildcats are.  Villanova jumped out to a 13 point lead at half-time holding Texas Tech to only 23 points.   While Villanova is known for their offense, it was their defense that led them to victory today.  They struggled from the field, but they would force the Red Raiders into long stretches where the 3 seed didn’t score.

Texas Tech did get the game to as close as 5 as they made a slight run in the second half.  But Villanova showed another reason why they are dangerous.  They are incredibly good from the free throw line.   When your best option as a team trying to extend the game to catch up is to send a 70% free throw shooter to the line, it is tough to come back.  Villanova hit their free throws, and Texas Tech couldn’t hit any three pointers to counter, and the Wildcats are heading to San Antonio with a 71-59 victory.

We only have one more spot left in San Antonio, and it will go to one of two of the most successful programs in college basketball history.   You have the Big 12 Conference Champion #1 seed Kansas Jayhawks against the ACC’s #2 seed Duke Blue Devils and their hall of fame coach who has won more games than any other coach in history.  Should be a fun game!