As you can tell by getting three teams wrong in the bracket, I did poorly compare to my other bracketologists. Ironically, I did pretty close to the more mainstream folks from ESPN and CBS. But, some of the other experts (and many of the other people who just do this because they like basketball) did much better than I did – I would have finished pretty close to the end of the Bracket Matrix standings.
But as I looked closer at it, I think it did tell me some interesting things (which I updated on the Bracketology page). I am definitely glad I did this exercise – even though I would like to be closer, the more I look at my bracket, I think I did better. A good example is that of the 13 first round upsets, I had seeded 6 of them better than the committee (including seeding Wichita St and Gonzaga much better). I also give credit to much of my early success this year is due to the large amount of scouting of team’s resumes to come up with a bracket.
And since Villanova is beating Iowa by 30, I might do more looking at the differences in the bracket.
I will do a side note – I know Saturday I created a conspiracy theory due to the Kentucky / Indiana game. So, I did an analysis to see if there was something suspicious. If you look at the committee’s seedings and the bracket procedures, the Kentucky / Indiana game wasn’t a conspiracy as much as the necessary result of the committee’s procedure to fill the bracket. The biggest difficulty was because the committee’s rules force them to put the 4 Big 12 teams and 4 ACC teams that were top 16 in different regions. Because Iowa St couldn’t be put in Kansas’s region, Duke couldn’t be in UNC’s or Virginia’s region, and Cal couldn’t be in Oregon’s region, it basically forced where Kentucky (as well as the others) would be placed. And with 3 of the Big 10 schools being 5 seeds, it was pretty much inevitable that Kentucky would draw a Big 10 school in their region (assuming they weren’t upset).
It still doesn’t stop the questions around the seedings (so I guess there could be some conspiracy of looking ahead). But knowing how hard it is to seed the teams by going through the exercise myself, I imagine it is pretty hard for them to know they were setting up a Kentucky / Indiana matchup (because of all the other procedural rules). So, while I think the seeding was still bad, it looks like the committee’s hands were forced once they came up with that ranking vs. a malicious attempt to make Kentucky’s road extra hard.