Oh – and happy St. Patrick’s Day!!!!

There are just 6 games left – all the winners earn a ticket to the dance – all the losers hope that they are still good enough to get invited.

As for me, I am behind my normal schedule with my bracketology – I have been having a real hard time with seeding teams.

• How will the committee consider Gonzaga’s loss to St. Mary’s – it is one thing to only have 4 wins in the Top Tier if you blow everyone else out – but you have to blow everyone else out.
• How will the committee handle LSU – will they punish them a seed or two because their head coach won’t be there (or simply because they feel LSU needs to be punished).
• How will the committee leverage the NET ranking – will a team like NC State that would not even be in consideration with the RPI now actually get a bid for beating weak competition but not winning against their tough opponents.
• Will the committee be willing to give 3 ACC teams a top seed – or would victories today by Tennessee and Michigan State be enough to bring them to the top line.
• And I haven’t even figured out the bubble (I made the mistake of thinking that I should simply rank the teams and then that will decide the bubble – but now I am stuck ranking the top part of the bracket).
• Why do I do this crazy bracketology exercise each year?  I don’t even know why I am going to spend most of the afternoon looking at basketball profiles.  I must be insane.

There will be some great games today – and while I will be watching them, I will likely not be blogging – have to finish my bracketology efforts…..

For those who want to do their own analysis, I have updated the research sheets through all of Saturday’s games.  For the fans of the last 12 teams still playing, good luck in your conference championship games!

Enjoy the games – and of course the Selection Show!!!!!  The Tournament is almost here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have to tell you – I have lots of respect for the Selection Committee, because this is crazy hard.

How do you compare profiles that are so different.  Lets look at Tennessee vs. Gonzaga.  Lets remember that Gonzaga entered the week in the AP Poll as the #1 team and Tennessee entered it 8th.

But Tennessee beat Gonzaga in December by 3 points.  Tennessee at 28-4 have other victories against Kentucky, Louisville, Florida, Mississippi, two against Mississippi St and Memphis.   Gonzaga has Duke, St. Mary’s, Creighton, and San Francisco.  Gonzaga has relied on that one victory through the whole season and the fact that before St. Mary’s upset, they were cruising through the WCC.

So, you have a team that has 3 more top Quadrant 1 wins, won the head to head against them, and all 4 of their losses are better than the third loss from Gonzaga.  And yet most are going to expect the committee to rank Gonzaga better.  To be fair, the game getting ready to kick off between the Volunteers and Kentucky will probably help the committee further with this.

But can we really rank Gonzaga as a #1 seed simply because they beat Duke when they were healthy.  Syracuse did the same thing – no one is saying that Syracuse should be the number 1 team.

I am just struggling with this right now – because it is also that I am not picking who I think is better – it is who I think the Committee will say is better………

Meanwhile. also struggling to figure out how any one of three players from Auburn who mugged the Florida player going up for a last second three-point tying shot.   The shot doesn’t even get half way to the basket – tough to shoot when someone is hanging on your arm.  He might not have hit the three FTs to tie the game – but he should have had the chance.

There are only 26 games left – 14 of them will see their winners earn an automatic bid to the Tournament.  I could probably rant about all the games – but that would make this pretty long (and it already will probably be pretty long).  Here are the games to watch:

BID STEALERS – These are the games where the winner might reduce the size of the bubble by one.

• Atlantic 10 Semi-finals (Rhode Island vs St. Bonaventure and St. Louis vs Davidson).  Technically, Davidson has a NET ranking high enough to be on the bubble – but from a realistic perspective, Rhode Island sending VCU into the at large pool has taken a spot.
• Mt West – San Diego State vs Utah State (6 pm EST) – Utah State probably is already in – they were right on the cusp of the bubble / lock line to begin with.  But anything can happen in a championship game – and after last night’s upset of Nevada, there is no reason to believe that San Diego State can not steal the Mountain West bid.
• MAC – Bowling Green vs Buffalo (7:30 pm EST) – Buffalo is a ranked team who only lost twice this year to MAC opponents and probably locked into the tournament.  One of those two losses this year was at Bowling Green – so before you think Buffalo’s automatic bid is a guarantee, remember what happened to VCU.

MAJOR CONFERENCE FINALS – there is a good mix of games here

• Big 12 – Kansas vs Iowa State (6 pm EST) – even when the Jayhawks regular season streak gets taken away, they still figure out a way to be able to raise a banner next year.  Not to mention they saved the bubble by knocking off West Virginia last night.  Iowa State had a good upset of co-champ Kansas State last night – so they will likely have something to say about where that banner gets raised.
• Big East – Villanova vs Seton Hall (6:30 pm EST) – Seton Hall started this week on the bubble.  I have to expect that making the final is enough to get the Pirates in the dance, but they have their chance to make it a mute point – of course, that path has to go through Villanova who has dominated this conference in recent years.
• ACC – Duke vs Florida State (8:30 pm EST) – This creates an interesting matchup of two locked teams.  Have to expect that Duke will be a 1 seed if they win tonight (maybe they are even if they lose).  But Florida State is one of the strong defensive teams that can slow down the Blue Devil’s talented starting five – their question will be whether they can score enough points to take advantage of their defense.
• Pac 12 – Washington vs Oregon (10:30 pm EST) – are both of these teams bubble teams that have done enough to make the tournament.  I have to suspect Washington as the conference champion has done enough.  It is definitely unclear if Oregon (or the Arizona State team the Ducks beat last night to get here) has done enough.  Should be a great game – when both teams know they might not want to leave their NCAA hopes in the Selection Committee’s hands.

CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS – great mix of locks and bubbles

• SEC – Florida vs Auburn (1 pm EST) will see if the Gators can continue their bubble run to get to the Championship game.  Then Tennessee vs Kentucky (3 pm EST) could be the game that sends the winner to a potential #1 seed.  The Tennessee vs Kentucky game probably is the best matchup of the day.
• Big 10 – Michigan St vs Wisconsin (1 pm EST) should be a really great physical game – with the Spartans trying to stay in the race for a top 2 seed..  Michigan vs Minnesota (3:30 pm EST) will see if the Wolverines can also stay in the race for a top 2 seed, while the Gophers will try to make their bubble case by showing they can beat another top team that is not named Purdue.
• American – Houston vs Memphis (3 pm EST) and Cincinnati vs Wichita State (5 pm EST).  Houston is trying to to see if they can sneak into the 2 seed conversation.  Memphis is trying to improve their bubble profile – and a victory against Houston would certainly do that.  Cincinnati is safely in the tournament but would obviously like to improve their seed.  And Wichita State will be trying to steal a bid – the championship title is their only way into the dance.

Enjoy the games!!!!

I do have to give one of the ESPN credit – sadly, I can’t find it again to give proper credit (I was too upset).  Fortunately, being able to sleep in on a Saturday and a little bit of perspective helps tons.

This ESPN writer was talking about the bubble, and he mentioned that he hates how people say that this loss is the one that will end a bubble team’s chance to make it in the tournament.  And then they put this point out there.

Every at-large team that will play in the NCAA Tournament will have lost their last game before the tournament.

That’s right – unless you won your conference tournament and received the automatic bid, then you had to have lost in your conference tournament.  Losing a game doesn’t end your NCAA Tournament hopes – or how far you will make it in the tournament.  So, if your team has lost in the last couple of days, hold out some hope – there is still basketball left to be played!

 

I would love for Duke and North Carolina to play for a fourth time – hopefully once again with everyone healthy.  Ideally, that would happen not at 9:45 pm EST when I am falling in and out of sleep and preferably, not 15 minutes after watching Purdue lose.

But these teams are so crazy athletic compared to some of the other teams.  Watching how quickly North Carolina gets out in transition – they can score in seconds off a missed shot or steal – there was one play where North Carolina got the rebound, dribbled twice to get out of the crowd getting the rebound – and the ball never touched the floor again until it had gone through the basket seconds later.

Zion Williamson is a beast – I don’t think there is a way to stop him.  But Duke has a lot more than just Williamson.  They might not have the bench depth that some teams have – but when you have a starting five of Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, Tre Jones and Javin DeLaurier, you don’t need to play your bench for a large amount of time.

I have been watching a lot of basketball this week, and while sometimes a little sloppy, the two games I watched with Duke and UNC looked just a little bit more athletic and a ton faster than the other games I have seen.  So, as a college basketball fan, I would love to watch these two teams play again – just maybe when I am less likely to fall asleep and be sad about my Boilers.

I have the urge to go off on a massive rant, but I think I will summarize it – simply don’t want to have to go look up all the quotes.

Everyone by this point probably knows the LSU saga – and how Will Wade was caught on FBI wiretap talking about paying a recruit.  If you have not been keeping up with that saga, here are some blips:

• LSU indefinitely suspended Wade the day after the Yahoo Sports article came out
• They also suspended the player mentioned in the wiretap – Javonte Smart – for their final regular season game against Vanderbilt
• Then, Wade through his attorneys said that he would not meet with LSU like they requested to discuss what happened – that he would only do it after the FBI case was concluded.
• As you can expect, LSU responded that Wade would remain indefinitely suspended until he discussed the situation with the administration.
• Wade sent a statement out saying that he felt that LSU was being unfair – that he should be allowed to protect his constitutional rights to not incriminate himself and still be able to do his job.  LUNATIC RANTING NOTE – Wade is more insane than the Lunatic.  His constitutional rights to not incriminate himself are applicable to a court of law – not an employer asking him to attend a closed-door meeting.  He is very lucky that LSU did not say that showing up to work and the meetings he is told to by the administration are parts of the terms of his contract – if he would like to keep his job and not be fired with cause, he should show up when he is told to show up.
• Surprisingly, LSU says that they are reinstating Javonte Smart – that he has cooperated with LSU’s and the NCAA’s investigation, and they feel comfortable letting him play.  LUNATIC RANTING NOTE – This feels like the NCAA has told them that they are going to get punished pretty severely and that this season is going to be vacated and so why should they care if they are playing with an ineligible player.   I could be completely wrong – maybe the kid wasn’t involved in all of this nonsense.  But considering that the Tigers are the #9 team when Smart is playing, it would not be a complete shock that this was simply about winning.

That leads up to today – when bubble team Florida plays the Tigers with Javonte Smart – and pulls off a huge resume-boosting upset victory when the Gators’ Andrew Nembhard hit a three pointer with 1 second left in the game to win 76-73.

It is great that Florida had such an amazing victory today – they have had a ridiculously tough schedule which is part of the reason they had so many losses and yet had such a high NET ranking.  They are a good team – and today probably has earned them a spot in the field.

But you have to admit – March does appear to be applying a little bit of karma to the LSU Tigers……

Minnesota had pulled out to a 10 point lead.  And so with it already being past my kids bedtime, I stopped watching the game and helped out with our normal bedtime routine.  Meanwhile, my good friend and fellow Boilermaker, Dave Zimmerman was texting me about how this was sadly going, and I told him I would stop watching – maybe it would change the Boilers fortunes.  And sure enough, they came storming back to take the lead.

And then Charlie – who had just finished his shower – said, “Can we watch the game?”  What am I supposed to do – I want my son to enjoy watching the games, not have the ridiculous superstition that your team is doing bad because you are watching them.  I told Charlie that Dave said I shouldn’t watch – but I would be happy to let him watch the game.

So, we watch until 1 minute is left in the game, when Minnesota takes the lead and is also going to the line to extend the lead (side note: Jordan Murphy was a monster tonight – Purdue had no answer for him).  I could see Charlie looking sad (which is not good before bed) and I ask him- “Do you want to watch this – or just go to bed and hope that they win?”   He picked bed and hope that they win.

That was probably a good choice – Minnesota stayed up by a couple points, and Carson Edwards three pointer at the buzzer to win the game was off – the Gophers upset Purdue twice in two weeks and advance.  And I sadly am left to blog.  Not sure I can truly enjoy the exciting 9 pm games (including Duke / UNC) at this point.

I will probably still watch – but I might need to blog out my sorrows.  It could either be a very quiet or very rambling night……   Not sure yet what it will be.

Meanwhile as I type this, I just saw the team I figured would take over the #1 seed Virginia lose to Florida State…….

Anyone desparately want someone playing tonight to lose – looks like all I need to do is root or say positive things about them……Just let me know.

 

Purdue is about to start their Big 10 Tournament – as they will face Minnesota (ironically / sadly, the team that beat the Boilers last week to help Michigan State share the conference regular season title with Purdue).  Here’s hoping the Boilers come out well for this one – the Gophers are a good team so it will not be an easy win.

BOILER UP!!!!

March Madness can be so cruel.  The VCU Rams went 16-2 in conference and 25-6 in the season to earn the conference regular season championship and #1 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament.  They had won 12 games straight games since a road loss to Rhode Island back in January.

So, who ends up being the 8 seed in the Atlantic 10 Tournament – the Rhode Island Rams, one of the two teams in conference to have beaten VCU.   And unfortunately for the local team, Rhode Island apparently had the recipe for beating VCU – since they did it against today 71-65.  So, Rhode Island end up being the Rams that move on in the tournament, and VCU sadly has to go home and see if their great season is enough to win an At-Large bid.

VCU has a pretty solid profile for a small conference team – not only have they won their conference, they have victories over fellow bubble teams Temple and Texas (who they beat on the road).  They also only loss by 1 on the road to St. John’s and by 8 on the road to Virginia (who is likely a #1 seed).  They also have a good NET rating of 31 as of yesterday.  They should be in the NCAA Tournament – but being a small conference team, this loss sadly puts them squarely on the bubble.

This upset means two things – while Dayton and Davidson have NET rankings in the 60s, the reality is that VCU was probably the only realistic at-large team from the Atlantic 10.  So, a bid has been stolen – even if we do not know who will be the team that steals that bid.    It also means it is going to be a very long two days in Richmond for VCU and their fans as they hope the Selection Committee invites them to the dance.

Don’t get me wrong – there are still some bubble teams that are more than alive – looking to continue to squeeze their way into the Dance.  But as the Big 12, Big East and ACC head to their Semi-Final games, it is time to get to watch some of the games that will shape the top part of the bracket.

ACC – If you want to see some of the best basketball in the country – just turn on the ACC tournament – three of the teams in the race for a #1 seed are all here – Virginia will play Florida State, and then we get to watch Duke play North Carolina for a third time (this time, hopefully with a healthy Zion Williamson).  Great basketball!!!!!

Big 12 – Iowa State playing Kansas State in one of the semi-finals is no surprise (and should be a great game).  But West Virginia shocking the field to play Kansas is another.  At 14-19, the Mountaineers are not a bubble team making a push, they are truly a gate crasher trying to sneak into the party without a ticket.  If they can beat Kansas today, they will be won shocking win away from stealing the Big 12 bid – and leaving another bubble team at home

That being said – the stories like West Virginia (and maybe more importantly, St. Mary’s) always remind me of one important note.  Every year, we will talk about the team that gets snubbed by the Selection Committee and the team that probably doesn’t deserve to be there.  I am sure I will have opinions about that in my blog next week.  But every bubble team needs to realize that if they do not make the tournament, it is because they allowed their fate to rest in the Selection Committee.  Because of the Conference Tournaments, almost every Division I team (there are a couple conferences who do not allow their last place teams to play-in) and certainly every bubble team controls their destiny and has a simple way to dance – win the quarterfinals, semi-finals and conference championships.  You win 3 games – you play your way into the tournament.  It is that simple.  If you are 17-14 and lose in your quarter-final, you did not get snubbed – you didn’t play your way into the tournament.  That might seem harsh – especially if you play in a conference like the ACC where that route goes through Virginia, Duke and North Carolina.  But we are talking about playing for a National Championship – you have to beat those type of caliber teams in March.

OK – back to previewing.

Big East – the Big East bubble teams that won their way in the crazy Big East bubble race were Seton Hall and Xavier.  So, their rewards are Xavier gets to play Villanova to strengthen their profile, and Seton Hall draws Marquette – both real chances to beat top quality teams.  But as I just said above – why leave it to the Committee – they have a line of sight to the tournament by winning two more games.

Big 10 – With their final on Sunday, they are just starting their quarterfinals.  Minnesota will try to upset my Boilers, Ohio State will try to upset Michigan State, and Iowa will try to take out Michigan.  If any of these bubble teams win today, I would have to imagine that probably punches their ticket to the dance based on where the bubble is.  Then, of course, we have Nebraska playing Wisconsin – where the Cornhuskers will try to show their conference record doesn’t matter – just keep winning to steal a bid.

SEC – The SEC has a mix of games against teams likely already in (like Missisippi State vs Tennessee).  But there is also going to be three bubble teams trying to get to the semi-finals as Florida plays LSU, Alabama plays Kentucky, and South Carolina plays Auburn.  I suspect that despite the seeds, Florida is the safest team at the moment from the SEC bubble – Alabama and South Carolina really need today’s games to help make a statement.

Others – I am still finding the Pac 12 tournament fascinating.  Oregon plays Arizona State and Colorado plays Washington – but because of the weak NET rankings, it is unclear if winning in the semi-finals gets any of these bubble teams in.  And teams like Houston, Nevada, and Buffalo (would love to throw VCU into this mix – but they are not as safe as the other three) try to make sure their league’s bid is not stolen by a team trying to crash the party.

And that will lead into the weekend – if you are lucky enough to be playing on Saturday (unless you are in the Ivy, SEC, Atlantic 10, Sun Belt, Big 10, or American conferences who are playing their semi-finals Saturday), you win your game and you are heading to the NCAA Tournament – no need to sweat out Selection Sunday.   You will be your conference’s champion and have earned your ticket to the dance.

Enjoy the games!!!!!