Don’t get me wrong – there are still some bubble teams that are more than alive – looking to continue to squeeze their way into the Dance. But as the Big 12, Big East and ACC head to their Semi-Final games, it is time to get to watch some of the games that will shape the top part of the bracket.
ACC – If you want to see some of the best basketball in the country – just turn on the ACC tournament – three of the teams in the race for a #1 seed are all here – Virginia will play Florida State, and then we get to watch Duke play North Carolina for a third time (this time, hopefully with a healthy Zion Williamson). Great basketball!!!!!
Big 12 – Iowa State playing Kansas State in one of the semi-finals is no surprise (and should be a great game). But West Virginia shocking the field to play Kansas is another. At 14-19, the Mountaineers are not a bubble team making a push, they are truly a gate crasher trying to sneak into the party without a ticket. If they can beat Kansas today, they will be won shocking win away from stealing the Big 12 bid – and leaving another bubble team at home
That being said – the stories like West Virginia (and maybe more importantly, St. Mary’s) always remind me of one important note. Every year, we will talk about the team that gets snubbed by the Selection Committee and the team that probably doesn’t deserve to be there. I am sure I will have opinions about that in my blog next week. But every bubble team needs to realize that if they do not make the tournament, it is because they allowed their fate to rest in the Selection Committee. Because of the Conference Tournaments, almost every Division I team (there are a couple conferences who do not allow their last place teams to play-in) and certainly every bubble team controls their destiny and has a simple way to dance – win the quarterfinals, semi-finals and conference championships. You win 3 games – you play your way into the tournament. It is that simple. If you are 17-14 and lose in your quarter-final, you did not get snubbed – you didn’t play your way into the tournament. That might seem harsh – especially if you play in a conference like the ACC where that route goes through Virginia, Duke and North Carolina. But we are talking about playing for a National Championship – you have to beat those type of caliber teams in March.
OK – back to previewing.
Big East – the Big East bubble teams that won their way in the crazy Big East bubble race were Seton Hall and Xavier. So, their rewards are Xavier gets to play Villanova to strengthen their profile, and Seton Hall draws Marquette – both real chances to beat top quality teams. But as I just said above – why leave it to the Committee – they have a line of sight to the tournament by winning two more games.
Big 10 – With their final on Sunday, they are just starting their quarterfinals. Minnesota will try to upset my Boilers, Ohio State will try to upset Michigan State, and Iowa will try to take out Michigan. If any of these bubble teams win today, I would have to imagine that probably punches their ticket to the dance based on where the bubble is. Then, of course, we have Nebraska playing Wisconsin – where the Cornhuskers will try to show their conference record doesn’t matter – just keep winning to steal a bid.
SEC – The SEC has a mix of games against teams likely already in (like Missisippi State vs Tennessee). But there is also going to be three bubble teams trying to get to the semi-finals as Florida plays LSU, Alabama plays Kentucky, and South Carolina plays Auburn. I suspect that despite the seeds, Florida is the safest team at the moment from the SEC bubble – Alabama and South Carolina really need today’s games to help make a statement.
Others – I am still finding the Pac 12 tournament fascinating. Oregon plays Arizona State and Colorado plays Washington – but because of the weak NET rankings, it is unclear if winning in the semi-finals gets any of these bubble teams in. And teams like Houston, Nevada, and Buffalo (would love to throw VCU into this mix – but they are not as safe as the other three) try to make sure their league’s bid is not stolen by a team trying to crash the party.
And that will lead into the weekend – if you are lucky enough to be playing on Saturday (unless you are in the Ivy, SEC, Atlantic 10, Sun Belt, Big 10, or American conferences who are playing their semi-finals Saturday), you win your game and you are heading to the NCAA Tournament – no need to sweat out Selection Sunday. You will be your conference’s champion and have earned your ticket to the dance.
Enjoy the games!!!!!