So happy that Purdue came back from being down at halftime on the road at #12 Illinois to win 77-71 and claim the outright Big 10 title.

It is the first time since 2006 and 2007 that a Big 10 team won back-to-back outright Big 10 championships. BOILER UP!!!!!

I guess I now need to get back to figuring out if I will do a crazy bracketology based on statistics and models – or do my standard pick teams crazily in the last couple of days (or a combination of both). But it was a nice diversion from my craziness to enjoy watching the Boilers win the Big 10!

As March has begun, it is time to make some statements about the mid-major teams on the bubble. Lets face it, the world is broken into the 6 major conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 12 and SEC) and the rest. If you aren’t in those 6, there are many names that get thrown around, small conference, mid-major conference, one-bid conference. They are one of the things that make March great – when they pull off one of those double-digit seed upsets that make the world notice them – even if it is for a single weekend.

This is a plea for the selection committee to look deeper into these teams. Because inevitably, a couple of these teams that have dominated all season are going to lose in their conference tournament (and as the name one-bid conference suggests), will likely be sent to the NIT.

There are two conferences in particular that have my eye – the Missouri Valley, where Indiana State (25-5) and Drake (24-6) are two excellent teams with only a few blemishes on the season. And then, there is the Sun Belt where James Madison (28-3) finds themselves one game behind in the standings to Appalachian State (26-5).

Many will say the following: Sure – James Madison beat Michigan State in East Lansing in overtime but would they be 28-3 if they played a major conference schedule – after all, they did get swept by Appalachian State and lost at Southern Miss. Sure- Appalachian State managed to beat Auburn at home in December. But they also lost to teams like Troy and Texas State. Could they have survived a guantlet like the SEC and have that type of record.

The answer is not as clear as it should be. The truth is, they probably would have lost some more games – but how many is hard to determine. But I will throw this out there for the committee to think about.

The Big 12 has an example that might be worth looking at. The Big 12 welcomed new members to the league – two of them of interest for this conversation (Houston and BYU).

Houston was won of those examples last year as they won the American for 4 of its last 5 seasons, and now was finally going to get a chance in the majors. And if you believed the pre-season predictions, CBS had the Cougars only behind Kansas. And lets face it – Kansas has won the Big 12 in something like 14 of the last 15 seasons, so who would blame the experts for sticking with the champions.

As for BYU, they came from the West Coast Conference where they competed against Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. CBS didn’t have as high opinions here – as they predicted BYU would finish 11th in the conference.

With one week in the regular season, if Houston can win one of their last two games (at UCF and home vs Kansas), they will clinch a share of the Big 12 title. At 26-3, they are the #1 team in the polls, and for good reason. No one is questioning whether they deserve a spot in the dance – they are questioning on whether the committee will give them the national #1 seed. We all know this conversation would be much different if they were still in the American.

But how about BYU – they are 21-8 and 9-7 in the conference, and considered a lock to be in the tournament. They are in a tie for 4th place with the Kansas team predicted to win the whole conference and Texas Tech. I guarantee you – if they had gone 11-5 in the West Coast Conference because they lost their games to Gonzaga and St. Mary’s and then stumbled again on the road (lets say like 22-9 San Francisco did this season), they would be barely on the conversation of the bubble – certainly not a lock.

This is the proof that the committee needs to start to take a look at. If a team like James Madison goes 28-3 and beats Michigan State, and a team like Appalachian State goes 26-5 and beats Auburn (and then sweeps James Madison), they are good teams. Why is it that if we believe that they would lose a few more road games if they played in Big 10 or SEC, they should not get the same consideration. We already know both of those teams are 1-0 against those conferences. Why is it hard to believe that a 28-3 James Madison could finish 21-10 in the Big 10 – if they could beat Michigan State on the road, they probably could hold their home court against the likes of Michigan and Penn State. And then, they would have a profile that looks like (or better than) Michigan State (who is considered safely in the tournament). And yet, if Appalachian State beats them again in the conference tournament, they will have to hope that the NIT decides to take them.

There is great basketball being played outside the major 6 conferences. And as Houston and BYU have shown us, sometimes all these “one-bid conference” teams need is simply a chance to play to prove they belong. I would rather see a 30-4 team play in the tournament than an 18-14 team – even if the 30-4 team won those games in the Sun Belt.

I won’t likely get that option – Appalachian State and James Madison can’t both win the Sun Belt. Someone will be on the outside left out of the dance. Unless the committee sees this plea and reconsiders some past beliefs that are maybe not as a true as we think. And if that happens, they should send a thank you card to Houston and BYU for giving a little more proof – the question shouldn’t be would they lose a few more games. The question is would they win enough – and for Houston and BYU, that answer was yes.

One of the advantages to my loyal statisticians is that with the need to completely renew my website is that I am ahead of schedule on pulling box scores. If you click on the research link, our traditional Excel spreadsheet with 2024 game data is there. I will continue to update it throughout March – although maybe not every day. Can’t start my sleep deprivation too early.

The typical disclaimer is there. My process has some basic quality checks to match records to what the NCAA releases on their NET rankings page. The research page also gives you a link to the NCAA Statistics site – where I get the box scores (but they have more data including play-by-play data that I wished I had time to pull and scrub).

For those of you wondering why I do this insane data collection, it is so that people can build models with it. Each year, we get several people who have demonstrated the power of statistics by building models in order to predict the games – some with tons of success. Bill Kahn had been near the top of the standings multiple years by building Bradley-Terry models. And our 2006 champion David Shaddick won by using a model he created with this data for a stats training course at work for analysts. At the end of the day, while strange things can happen in the tournament, good statistical techniques can be used to do a great job of forecasting the games.

If you are looking for a fun way to learn statistics (or want to show off you statistical expertise by building the best model), the data is there for you to enjoy – you might be the next winner of the pool thanks to your efforts.

If you notice any issues with the data, please let me know! Enjoy the data!!!

2023 was a little bit rough for the Lunatic website. We all know how big of a Purdue fan that he is, so watching his Boilers lose in the first round as a 1 seed was devastating. But that was just foreshadowing. In November, as I started to enjoy the new season of college basketball, I thought I would write an early blog. To my horror, all my WordPress sites were corrupted. I couldn’t even log into them to figure out what went wrong.

But when things go wrong, you have to use it as an opportunity to move forward. You will notice a different look to the website this year. I updated WordPress to the newest version, and that brought a newer theme and look. I am still struggling with editing the blocks and format, but I was lucky enough to be able to login to the databases and copy and paste a lot of the historical blogs into the new site.

At this point, the most important part of the website is restored – the pages that you use to register for the pool and enter your picks. And so while there is still time before March, why wait. The Lunatic is back for another month of sleep deprivation, looking through stat sheets in a foolish attempt to show he can predict college basketball games.  This will likely end in a thorough stomping, but it should be a wild and entertaining ride. And so, I am happy to announce the 2024 Stomp the Lunatic tournament!

I still have a ton of work to do – and not sure that all of it will get done in time. You will notice some differences in the layout of the site. Because of the new WordPress theme, I am going to try to create a navigational bar at the top of the pages to help move throughout the site, whether it be to register for this year’s tournament, enter your picks, check your place in the standings, or enjoy the sleep-deprived rantings of the Lunatic.

On the standings pages, I have created a drop-down menu that allows you to view previous standings through 2008 (the first year I ran the pool on the current website). I have also created a Hall of Fame site that has a listing of past winners and links to the older standings pages.

I am thinking about how to revamp the Bracketology, Handicapping and Statistics pages. Because of the troubles I had with WordPress, I am going to re-design these to be more standalone webpages. They might not be fully restored this year (at a certain point, we need to focus on the current tournament vs. restoring the site), but hopefully, I will be able to figure out a way to continue to stroll down memory lane. Not to mention that it wouldn’t be March without the Lunatic trying to predict what teams will be playing in the tournament and then handicapping all 67 games.

I will eventually send out an email to invite you all to Stomp the Lunatic!  But I can’t send out an email stating that it must be March if it is still February.  Not to mention we all know that I am horrible at managing my email lists.

That being said, Selection Sunday is just three weeks away.  March 17th will be here before we know it. 

But have no fears – while the Lunatic might not be able to restore everything that he wants with the website, we are still ready for the NCAA Tournament to start. While it is certainly not necessary, the registration link is live for this year’s tournament (that being said, it is typically easier to register when you enter your picks). And I have managed to pull all the box scores through Thursday’s games. And I am super excited to watch as the regular season championships get decided over the next 1-2 weeks and the conference tournaments begin. I am sure there will be lots more drama as teams fight to earn the opportunity to play in the NCAA Championship. We will all need to get ready – because it is time to watch an amazing month of college basketball. And of course, it is time to Stomp the Lunatic!!!

It is that time of year. No – it is not March yet. It is time for the Lunatic to setup and test all the webpages to make sure they are pointing to the 2024 tables. While I should be safe, please do not register for the 2024 contest – everything is in a test state and the 2024 tables will be cleared out once all the testing is completed.

You might not be able to register for the tournament this weekend – but you can certainly enjoy some college basketball. We have 4 top ten matchups this weekend.

• Saturday, Feb 3rd at 4 pm (ESPN) – #4 Houston travels to #8 Kansas as the Cougars try to show they can win the Big 12 in their first season with the very tough task of winning at the home of the Jayhawks, the defending Big 12 champions.
• Saturday, Feb 3rd at 6:30 pm (ESPN) – #7 Duke heads just down the road to Chapel Hill to play #3 North Carolina as one of the best rivalries in college basketball settles who will control the ACC.
• Saturday, Feb 3rd at 8:30 pm (ESPN) – #5 Tennessee visits their northern neighbors to play #10 Kentucky in a major matchup for the SEC title lead.
• Sunday, Feb 4th at 1 pm (CBS) – #2 Purdue heads to #6 Wisconsin as my Boilers have a huge road game in a battle of the best two teams in the Big 10.

I will let people know when the Lunatic is no longer lurking in the shadows trying to setup his site, and is ready to begin his annual sleep deprivation project. March is only a month away. The Madness is coming, and the Lunatic will be ready (to be stomped).

Well – why should I expect anything else from 2023? Apparently, my old version of WP crashed taking my website down with it.

I think I have managed to salvage as much of the blog as I could. I will have to continue to play with the site to try to get it back to a reasonable appearance with all the old links.

But it has been a long evening. So, for now, I am going to be happy with this. Expect more changes in the upcoming months.