It’s the most wonderful time of the year!!!! As I write this, we are about 8 hours away from knowing the 68 teams that will be playing for the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship!!!!

There are 5 last championship games to play – here is what is at stake (and where to watch).

• Ivy League – Noon on ESPN2/ESPN+ – Yale (21-7) vs Cornell (18-10) – While Yale’s NET ranking at 72 is respectable, lets face the reality. For these two teams, if they want to be playing in the NCAA Tournament, they have to win today in Providence. Yale is the Ivy regular season champ and swept the regular season against Cornell, but the last game was a 4 point game.
• SEC – 1 pm on ESPN – #4 Florida (29-4) vs #8 Tennessee (27-6) – This is the premier matchup of the day, as the winner of this game might get the final #1 seed. I am nervous of saying this will be the best game of the day for this reason. When the Gators played the Vols at home, they won by 30. When the Vols played the Gators at home, they won by 20. So, they split their series with neither game being close. It is unclear to me if a win today can give Tennessee the ability to jump over Florida and St. John’s for the final 1 seed, but if it turns into a blowout in Nashville like the other two games, it is certainly a possibility.
• Atlantic 10 – 1 pm on CBS – VCU (27-6) vs George Mason (26-7) – If you are a fan of a bubble team, this is the game that is going to make you twitchy. The two teams are the co-champions of the Atlantic 10, with the Rams winning by 16 here in Richmond in their only meeting. However, with the Atlantic 10 tournament being in Washington, D.C., the Patriots will have the home court advantage today. The Rams currently have a NET ranking of 31, but if you look closer at their resume, they don’t have that huge victory that you are hoping to see from a team outside the 5 power conferences. Unlike some, it is not that they shied away from the power conferences – the problem is they crushed Boston College, beat Miami and lost to Seton Hall in overtime. It was a bad break that the power conference teams on their schedule didn’t end up being tournament-caliber teams. If VCU wins, the bubble teams will all be relieved and the Rams will be relieved for taking the decision out of the committee’s hands. If George Mason wins, VCU will join the bubble teams with an extremely nervous 3 hour wait to learn their fate.
• The American – 3 pm on ESPN / ESPN+ – #16 Memphis (28-5) vs UAB (22-11) – The Tigers survived a little bit of a scare against Tulane on Saturday, but the American’s regular-season conference champions did just enough to advance to the final in Fort Worth. This game is a little bit different from the Atlantic 10. It still should make bubble teams ridiculously nervous (and huge fans of the Tigers) because if the Blazers pull the upset, it clearly will steal a bid. I can’t see the Tigers being ranked 16th in the polls and not make the tournament, even though their NET ranking of 50 suggests that they might not be as safe as one believes. The Tigers did sweep the Blazers during the regular season, including a 7 point win a couple weeks ago at UAB.
• Big 10 – 3:30 pm on CBS/Paramount+ – #18 Wisconsin (26-8) vs #22 Michigan (24-9) – The final game of the season in Indianapolis does not have the stakes that some of the other games have, as the Badgers and Wolverines are both clearly in the field of 68. But it should still be a great game, as both teams are playing great right now as the Badgers upset regular season champion on Saturday by 3, and the Wolverines upset Maryland on Saturday on a buzzer beating layup. When these teams played in December, the Wolverines travelled to Madison and beat the Badgers by 3. So, while the committee probably will have already decided what seeds the Badgers and Wolverines have (maybe even before the game tips-off), the game should still have plenty of excitement and when the game is over, we will be only 15-30 minutes away from the tournament selection show!!!!

So, now, the Lunatic begins his panicked tradition of trying to create a predicted bracket over the next 7 hours. I tried to come up with a cool statistical measure yesterday to help me rank the teams, and while I still will probably use it, it really didn’t give me what I wanted. Basically, I built my own Wins Above Bubble metric – where I built a model that predicts the margin of any team playing (this typically gave a spread of within a point or two of the Vegas spread – which isn’t bad for one day of work).

Then, I figured out for each game what was the 46th best margin of victory in that matchup, with the idea being that this would be a good idea of how a bubble team would perform in the game. Then, I calculated the difference between the actual outcome of the game compared to that bubble prediction to determine how the team did. I thought this would be a nice way to rank a team’s victories (on the lines that while a team like Purdue might get more credit for beating Alabama than Michigan, the 27 point victory against Michigan might have been a better performance than the 9 point victory over Alabama).

To my chagrin, despite Purdue’s victory over Alabama, that method said Purdue’s 3 best victories were their 36 point victory over Nebraska, their 27 point victory over Michigan, and their 35 point victory over Marshall. It was close to what I was trying to do, but I still didn’t have a good way of separating beating a good team, or losing close to a great team from crushing a team that isn’t a tournament caliber team.

So, why would this year be any different. The Lunatic spends a lot of time coming up with a mathematical way to better predict the bracket. The Lunatic applies his method to come up with an answer. The Lunatic realizes that the committee will not act in that way, because no human being would make that decision (no one would count Purdue’s victory over Marshall as a better win than their wins over Alabama, Ole Miss, Maryland, UCLA or Oregon). The Lunatic panics since he only has 7 hours to come up with a bracket and no clue how to rank any of the teams.

Its a fun exercise in craziness. No one cares who the Lunatic thinks the committee will select (because honestly, I try to think who the committee will take over who I want to see – otherwise, the choices would be so much easier). It takes a ridiculous amount of time to create. And the Lunatic typically does horribly at it. And yet, while it makes the Lunatic stressed out every Selection Sunday, it does end up making him happy at the end of the day.

So with that, the Lunatic will return to his statistics and bracketology. He will also watch 6 hours of basketball. And that will make the Lunatic very happy. Hope you all enjoy the games as well!!!!

Selection Sunday is here – and that means it is time to STOMP THE LUNATIC!!!!

Well, not the teams – the Big 12 plays some great basketball. I was looking forward to seeing how Houston did as some of the other top teams like Auburn, Michigan State and Maryland were upset.

I made it about a minute before I had to change the channel. The Big 12 court is one of the most atrocious things I have ever seen. Whoever thought it was a good idea to interweave all those X and I so the Big 12 logo was printed over and over again was such a bad decision. I was getting a headache just watching for a short amount of time.

So I guess I will be watching the Mountain West or Big East games. I will keep an eye on the Big 12 score but I just don’t know that I can watch for long periods of time. I know the Big 12 was loving the publicity as people have been talking about the court design. But I don’t think it is what they really want for lots of people to tune in for a minute to see what the chatter is about, look at it and say – yep that is awful – and then turn off the game like I just did.

Hope the Big 12 championship is a blowout – then I won’t feel bad about watching one of the other games.

What a wild finish in the Big 10 semi-finals. Michigan’s Tre Donaldson had hit a three-pointer with 28 seconds to give the Wolverines the lead. But then they looked like they were going to implode.

First, Julian Reese hit a layup to cut the lead to 1 point. Then, after getting fouled, Danny Wolf missed his free throw and the Terrapins got the rebound, crossed half court and called time out with 7 second to play. Then, as Derik Queen tried to get free to drive the lane, Rubin Jones fouled him outside the three-point line giving the Terrapins a chance to take the lead from the line.

Queen hit both free throws and the Terrapins were 5 seconds away from the finals. I wish I knew who the announcer of the game was because he made an amazing statement. As the second free throw went in, he said something on the lines of “Tre Donaldson is passing the ball in, Maryland can not let them give him back the ball.”

Sure enough, Michigan immediately kicked the ball back to Donaldson and he looked like he was shot out of a cannon as he drove down the court, through the lane, to the basket, and made a pretty layup with 0.4 seconds left in the game to give the Wolverines the victory.

So, Michigan will play Wisconsin for the Big 10 title on Sunday. As for the SEC, Florida looked like they might have just locked down the last 1 seed as they beat Alabama 104-82. And any fan of a bubble team rejoiced as Memphis held on to beat Tulane in the American semi-finals 78-77.

Three big games getting ready to kick-off, as the Big 12, Big East and Mountain West Championship games are about to start!!! So much more great basketball to watch!!!!

They are good problems for the Lunatic, and considering that he is crazy, all of this makes sense – because these are not the actions of someone sane.

I was watching the Tennessee / Auburn game when realizing that Wisconsin was winning in a close game with a minute left – so I switched over to the Big 10 semifinal just to see it in commercial. So, then I put the SEC game on my computer and realized the VCU game was also close.

So, here I am – Big 10 game on the TV, SEC game on my computer sitting on my lap, and VCU game streaming on my phone in my hands as I switch my view from TV to laptop to phone.

I have to thank VCU for holding on to their victory with relatively little drama. Because every time I looked at my laptop, I was watching as 2-3 players were picking themselves up off the court. I am fine with a little bit of physical basketball, but from watching the Tennessee vs. Auburn game, I think it is getting out of hand when players from both teams can be lying on the ground on multiple plays with no fouls being called on either play.

With 14 seconds down 3, the Spartans drive the ball to the basket and kick it out to Tre Holloman for a tying three-pointer at the top of the key. But the Badgers’ Carter Gilmore steps out to block the shot. The Spartans are forced to foul John Tonje, and Tonje surprisingly missed both FTs keeping the door open. But as Jeremy Fears crosses half court and tries to throw up a deep three pointer, Tonje reaches in and strips the ball to preserve the Wisconsin upset 77-74 over Michigan State.

I flip the TV back to ESPN for the finish of the SEC game, as Chad Baker-Mazara gets a layup to cut Tennessee’s lead to 3 points (they were up 12 with 6 minutes to play when I started looking at what was happening in the other games and realized how close the other two games were). Auburn got a defensive stop and then had a weird sequence.

Johni Broome got the ball into the paint but missed the layup, he tried to tip back in his missed shot, but missed again, and as he tried to tip it again, Felix Okpara slapped the ball out but was called for what looked like a questionable foul. Then, Broome missed the free-throw, but after a scrum the ball rolled out-of-bounds. And of course, after a review, it ends up being Tennessee’s ball. But Broome then forces a held ball on Zeigler in the corner to give Auburn the ball back. But that would not work out as Baker-Mazara missed a three-pointer from the wing, and after multiple people go up for the ball it looks like it will be Auburn ball.

Until we once again go to the replay – which correctly shows the ball went off Broome last – so it is now Tennessee’s ball. They can’t get the ball in-bounds so they have to call a time out. Then, out of desperation, they just wing the ball to half court, and Jahmai Mashack was able to outjump everyone for the ball and then get fouled. Mashack hit his two free throws, Miles Kelly missed a desperation three-pointer, and Tennessee had upset the SEC regular-season champs.

It would be unfair to not mention that Bryant and Norfolk State won their conference tournaments. It is a little sad that I was trying to watch three basketball games at the same time. It must be March.

There are 22 games today. 12 conference tournaments will claim their automatic bid, while 5 conferences will play their semi-finals to play for their title tomorrow in one of the most agonizingly nerve-wracking parts of March. There is enough pressure on these games as it is with an invitation to the tournament on the line, but the Selection Committee has already made most of their decisions by Sunday, so what happens in a conference like the American if a favorite loses. The committee says they create contingency brackets – but the bias involved in that has to be strong. Anyways, lets worry about today. I am going to list out all 22 games – because that is what a Lunatic would do. Not going to comment on them all – but at least you know when and where the games are. Lets start with the power conferences – with the championships coming first.

• Big 12 – 6 pm (ESPN) – #2 Houston vs. Arizona – the Wildcats upset #9 Texas Tech on Friday to get to the championship. The Cougars should be safe as a 1 seed – but obviously, they want to show they are the best team in the Big 12.
• Big East – 6:30 pm (FOX) – #6 St. John’s vs Creighton – the Bluejays knocked off the two time national champions, while the Red Storm ran away from Marquette in the second half. I think St. John’s analytical rankings will hold them back for a chance at the last 1 seed, but I guess there is still a small chance for them to move up.
• ACC – 8:30 pm (ESPN) – #1 Duke vs #13 Louisville – in the first half against UNC, Duke showed they are more than just Cooper Flagg before having to hang on to win by 3. Meanwhile, the Cardinals managed to take a big lead on Clemson and then also hang on by 3. Will be interesting to see how the #1 team in the country does without their star player against a ranked team.

SEC semi-finals (both games on ESPN):

• 1 pm – #8 Tennessee vs. #3 Auburn – do the Volunteers still have an outside chance at a 1 seed – the SEC tournament has set up perfectly for a champion outside of Auburn to claim the other bid. (I suspect Duke, Auburn and Houston are safe).
• 3:30 pm – #4 Florida vs #5 Alabama – the Crimson Tide are asking the same question the Vols are. And obviously the Gators is trying to hang on to the last 1 seed. Both of these games deserve to be a final and might be the best games of the day – the fact that they are semis show how amazing the SEC is this year.

Big 10 semi-finals (both games on CBS / Paramount+)

• 1 pm – #7 Michigan State vs. #18 Wisconsin – it is unclear to me if the Spartans can get to the top line – but they will have to play against a very dangerous Badgers team to try to prove it.
• 3:30 pm – #11 Maryland vs #22 Michigan – can the Wolverines keep defying expectations by winning games. Both the Terps and Wolverines looked unbeatable in their quarterfinals so should be a great game.

NON POWER CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS – in order of when they come on TV. I am not going to comment on every game but will point out a couple interesting ones. I think the teams with asterisks by them are the current teams I have listed as favorites in my bracketology page – things might have changed in some of the semi-finals on Friday.

• 11 am (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – AMERICA EAST – Bryant* (22-11) vs Maine (20-13)
• 1 pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – MEAC – Norfolk State* (23-10) vs South Carolina State (20-12)
• 6 pm (CBS) – MOUNTAIN WEST – Colorado State (24-9) vs Boise State (24-9) – What a really big game – because nothing makes sense in the Mountain West. Both Colorado State and Boise State were in the bubble conversation going into the week – so is making the title game enough. The Broncos have beaten both San Diego State and regular-season champion New Mexico to get here. The Rams beat Nevada and upset Utah State based on NET ranking last night. The NET ranking says the favorite should be Boise State (but to be fair, the NET was wrong on both of Friday’s semi-finals). The conference standings say 2nd place Colorado State should be the favorite, as well as the fact that the Rams swept Boise State in both regular season games. Of course, it is hard to beat a good team three times in a season. So glad the games are not played on paper, and that we can simply watch these two really good teams play for a guaranteed spot in the tournament (and of course, the Mountain West championship trophy).
• 7:30 pm (ESPNU / ESPN+)- MAAC – Iona (17-16) vs. Mt St. Mary’s (21-12) – Iona knocked off regular-season Quinnipac and Mt. St. Mary’s responded by taking out 2nd place Merrimack. Will eventually have to update my bracketology.
• 7:40 pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – MAC – Akron* (27-6) vs. Miami OH (25-8) – the MAC always puts up dangerous teams in March, so it should be a great game between the conferences’ top two teams.
• 8:30 pm (CBS Sports Network) – CONFERENCE USA – Liberty* (27-6) vs. Jacksonville State (22-11) – The Flames are a top 65 NET ranking team, but have not played a single Quad 1 opponent all season. They will need to beat the Gamecocks to make the tournament.
• 9:30 pm (ESPNU / ESPN+) – SWAC – Jackson State (16-17) vs. Alabama State (18-15)
• 9:30 pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – BIG WEST – UC San Diego* (29-4) vs. UC Irvine (28-5) – this is certainly the best game of the day of two teams most people have no heard about. But these are two great basketball teams. UC San Diego has a NET ranking of 35 – and they also have a road victory against Utah State. UC Irvine has a NET ranking of 60 – but their only quad 1 game (and victory) is a road win against the Tritons. Of course, the Tritons got a second Quad 1 win when they returned the favor and beat the Anteaters in Irvine. Whenever you get to watch two teams that have won 28+ games (and have split their regular season games), you know that you are going to get to watch a fantastic game. The only unfortunate reality is that the team who loses tonight likely will miss out on the NCAA Tournament.
• 11:30 pm (ESPN2 / ESPN+) – WAC – Utah Valley* (25-7) vs. Grand Canyon (25-7) – if you do decide to stay up for the last game of the day, it should be a good one. It might not have two 28+ win teams in the top 60 of the NET like the Big West conference before it, but the top two teams from the WAC both being 25 win teams is a pretty appropriate way to finish Championship Saturday.

Atlantic 10 semi-finals (both games on CBS Sports Network)

• 1 pm – VCU* (26-6) vs Loyola-Chicago (22-10) – this is probably the biggest games on the bubble since all the remaining power conference teams have a cemented place in the tournament. The Rams probably need to at a minimum make it to the championship so this is a critical game. Their NET suggests that they are safe. What the committee did to Indiana State last year suggests that they are not safe. Hoping the local Richmond team takes the decision out of the committee’s hands by winning two more games this weekend.
• 3:30 pm – George Mason (25-7) vs. St. Joseph’s (22-11) – the Patriots are co-champions in the Atlantic 10, but their NET ranking doesn’t put them in the same category as VCU. They are very capable of continuing to win and claiming the A-10 title.

American semi-finals (both games on ESPN2 / ESPN+)

• 3 pm – #16 Memphis* (27-5) vs Tulane (19-13) – this is the second biggest bubble game of the day, but for a different reason. The Tigers as the #16 team in the country are safer than VCU. Which means if they get upset by Tulane today (or in the championship Sunday), the bubble will shrink by one to get the Tigers into the field.
• 5 pm – North Texas (24-7) vs UAB (21-11) – North Texas has a decent NET ranking at 59 but no Quad 1 wins, and if they get one this weekend, it will mean they have the automatic bid, so they really need to keep winning.

Ivy semi-finals (11 am on ESPNU, 2 pm on ESPNEWS – both on ESPN+)

• 11 am – Yale* (20-7) vs Princeton (19-11)
• 2 pm – Cornell (17-10) vs Dartmouth (14-13)

22 games to decide 12 automatic bids for the NCAA Tournament – Championship Saturday is here!!!! Enjoy a fantastic day of college hoops!

I am not even going to watch the last 4 minutes as we are down 16. Michigan has played with more intensity and have had a great balanced attack. We simply can’t guard anyone.

Oh well – still enjoyed my apple pie and pizza. It wasn’t a bad Pi day – other than Purdue losing.

After being up until 2 am yesterday, I am going to use the blowout loss as an opportunity to get some rest. Have lots of analysis to do for my bracketology tomorrow.

A small note – I did make a change to the stats which will be introduced when I pull Friday’s games. I changed the offensive and defensive ratings to be based on pts per possession vs. simply adjusted margin. While it is not exactly the same as some of the other analytics (since I don’t know their way of adjusting for schedule), the numbers are at least closer to what the committee will see (which I hope will help me tomorrow with my analysis). I also added a pace statistic to show whether a team plays faster or slower.

Saturday should be a fun day – with the exception of the 10 semi-final games from the SEC, Big 10, Atlantic 10, Ivy and American, the other 12 games will watch the winner go to the NCAA Tournament. Enjoy the games tomorrow!!!!

The Tar Heels got my message at half time – but the Tar Heels fought all the way back to being down from as many as 24 points to the down just 1 point with a chance to take the lead at the end of the game.

Ven-Allen Lubin took the ball strongly to the hoop and was fouled with 4 seconds. It was a shame the foul was called because one of his teammates had tipped the rebound in. But it would get much worse.

Lubin missed the first free throw but made the second one to seemingly tie the game. Except the referee blew his whistle. Jae’Lyn Withers stepped into the lane early before the free throw was shot for a lane violation. Instead of trying to defend to send the game to overtime, they had to foul to extend the game.

Kon Knueppel made both free throws for Duke, and Lubin’s fade-away three-pointer at the buzzer missed and the Blue Devils hung on to make the ACC championship game. Now, the Tar Heels have to anxiously wait two days to see if they will make the tournament. Tough break for UNC.

Well, my Boilers are down 5 but it is early. Maybe eating some pie will help.

So, the North Carolina Tar Heels have a huge opportunity tonight. They have done what they were supposed to do to make the ACC semi-finals. Many would have expected seeing #1 Duke as their opponent would be the end of the road – but then the Blue Devils lost two key players to injury. Suddenly, they have a wide open path to taking the decision out of the committee’s hands.

So, what is that you do not do in this situation? Lose your composure so badly that you let the Blue Devils score the last 15 points of the half. Duke appears to be determined to show that they are more than Cooper Flagg – and you can tell that they are playing with more enthusiasm, and it has the Tar Heels rattled.

There is still another half to play, but UNC finds themselves down 21 to the number 1 team in the country. That is not the impression they were trying to make tonight

I just have to remind everyone – it’s PI Day. While some of us math nerds know the mathematical constant to more digits, 3/14 leads to fun celebrations in the math world – typically involving eating some type of pie, ranging from desserts to pizza. Of course, as Elizabeth reminded me, this is only the second best mathematical constant day. Mole day (10/23) will always have a special place in our hearts.

Last night was great because Katie was apparently memorizing the constant to 20 digits to win a piece of pie at her school. For all the times that my daughter jokingly calls me a nerd for all my basketball stats, she might be horrified to know that at this moment, she knows more digits of pi than I do.

But since I have a computer in front of me, for those who want to test yourself (I only remember the classic first 6). According to math.com, it is 3.14159265358979323846 (it goes further if you really want to party with numbers).

The college basketball world decided to celebrate by having 22 of the top 25 teams in the country play in their various conference tournaments. You simply can not go wrong today – grab a piece of pie and enjoy some amazing athletes take a round ball and throw it through a circle (which by the way is about 56.55 inches – the 18 inch diameter multiplied by the number we are celebrating).

So I have a pizza pie for dinner, a no sugar added apple pie for dessert and lots of basketball to watch – happy Pi day!!!

I am not sure how conscious I will be in the morning, so might as well get the viewing guide done over the last 4 minutes of the Utah State game.

To be fair, almost everything is a big game on Friday. SEC and Big 10 are still in their quarterfinals, but the other major conferences are to their semi-finals, so all the games should be pretty good.

The top 4 teams in the ACC will battle on Friday – UNC will try to take advantage of Flagg’s injury as they take on their rivals #1 Duke at 7 pm. Then, #10 Clemson will play #13 Louisville in the 9:30 pm semi-final with a chance to improve their seeding.

The Big East also has their top 4 teams battling as #25 Marquette will try to upset regular season champion #6 St. John’s at 6:30 pm. Then at 9 pm, defending national champions Connecticut will play Creighton – should be a great night of basketball at Madison Square Garden.

The seeds held form in the Big 12 as well. #2 Houston will defend their regular season championship against #17 BYU at 7 pm, followed by #9 Texas Tech taking on Arizona. The games should be great, even if it is being played on the ridiculous court they created in Kansas City.

The Big 10 tournament should be some great matchups. #7 Michigan State kicks things off in Indianapolis at Noon against #23 Oregon. Then, #18 Wisconsin will play UCLA (the only non-ranked team left). And then in the evening games, we will have #11 Maryland against #24 Illinois and #20 Purdue vs. #22 Michigan. I have to say, it is pretty amazing that in these four power conferences, how the top teams keep advancing.

The SEC tournament will continue to be wild as their top 4 seeds will enter the chaos. Their lineup is #3 Auburn vs Ole Miss, #8 Tennessee vs Texas, #4 Florida vs #21 Missouri, and #5 Alabama vs #15 Kentucky – if these games are anywhere close to as good as the ones today, it should be an incredible day of basketball in Nashville.

The mid-majors also have some key games. VCU kicks off their Atlantic 10 tournament in a tough quarterfinal against St. Bonaventure at 11:30 am. #16 Memphis also has a somewhat difficult opener in the American quarterfinals against Wichita State. UC San Diego plays in the Big West semi-finals vs. Santa Barbara. And then of course, there is the Mountain West. They don’t start until 9:30 pm, but they have two great games in Las Vegas as New Mexico plays Boise State, and Utah State plays Colorado State.

So – as I said – you can’t miss no matter what conference tournament you decide to watch. All the games should be awesome!