I do need to complain about Arizona State making the tournament. I simply can not understand how you can pick a team tied for 8th in the conference with an 8-10 record (who also lost in the first round of the conference tournament to the other 8-10 team) – but you don’t take a team that finished 2nd in the conference who then also made it to the conference tournament final. I am fine with you saying that USC doesn’t have enough of a resume, because their best victories by RPI are Middle Tennessee State and New Mexico State.
Sure, Arizona State has two of the best victories in college basketball – they were able to beat Xavier and Kansas. I can also see someone saying Arizona State beat USC in the only game they played. But they won by 2 points at home. Home court advantage normally represents 4 points – so that outcome predicts that USC wins on at their home court or on a neutral court.
If it is only about who you beat, why isn’t St. John’s in the tournament. They beat Villanova and Duke – so why does it matter they lost 17 games. Is that too much. Well then how about Oklahoma State.
- Arizona State had 5 victories against teams in the bracket (Xavier, Kansas, UCLA, Kansas State, and San Diego St.). Oklahoma State has 8 (two against Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, two against Oklahoma, Texas and Florida State).
- Arizona State finished 20-11 – 9 of those losses are to teams that didn’t make the tournament. Oklahoma State finished 19-14, but only 2 of those losses are to teams that didn’t make the tournament.
- When in the conference tournament with one last chance to show they belong, Oklahoma State beat a tournament team in Oklahoma. Arizona State lost by double digits to Colorado – a team not even on the tourney radar.
I get that it is impressive you beat Xavier and Kansas. But it can’t simply be about beating 2 top teams. You have to beat the teams you are supposed to beat. Here is how Arizona State and USC did against their similar opponents.
- Quadrant 1 – USC (2-4), Arizona St (1-4)
- Quadrant 2 – USC (4-3), Arizona St (2-6)
- Quadrant 3 and 4 – USC (7-0), Arizona St (5-1)
USC had a better record at every level than Arizona State against their like opponents. But USC finished over 30 spots in the RPI better than the Sun Devils. They also had a better KenPom rating, a better BPI rating, and a better Sagarin rating. That is probably because USC did better against like competition. It is fine if you want to say USC isn’t good enough – but you simply can not say that Arizona State is if USC is not.