For the most part, I think the Selection Committee set up a great tournament – as they always do. It is also important to note at this point that the only teams left in the tournament are the conference tournament champions. None of the fringe at-large teams made the Final Four, and none of the teams that I think should have been invited in their place would have made it either. But it is my job to rant – and so rant I will.
There were 5 teams that went 8-10 in the regular season in their conference that were invited to the Big Dance. It is also pretty interesting what happened. One of those teams (Alabama) won multiple games in their conference tournament – including a couple against other tourney teams, and thus, got in – and they rewarded the committee with a victory. Two of those teams won their first conference tournament game and lost their next game against a tourney team. Syracuse rewarded that generosity with a run to the Sweet 16 while Texas lost a close game to a Nevada team that made the Sweet 16. Two of those teams lost their first conference tournament game to teams that didn’t make the tournament (Oklahoma and Arizona State) – both of those teams then lost their first round game.
The Selection Committee is very predictable in this case – they reward teams that have had a few impressive victories instead of teams that win lots of games but don’t win their toughest game of the season. I would like to see at some point some of these teams like Nebraska, USC, St. Mary’s and Middle Tennessee State which might not have had that marquee victory but they won the games they were supposed to win. None of these teams are going to win the National Championship, but why not reward teams that don’t lose very many games instead of rewarding teams with a couple of amazing upsets.
My only other complaint comes to the treatment of mid-major champions. It happens every single year, but this year, one team went further than usual. Loyola-Chicago never should have been an 11 seed. They were 28-5 – with the majority of those losses coming with at least one of their starters out due to injury. But because they are from the Missouri Valley, they get seeded as the top team after all the at-large teams are placed. Loyola had an RPI of 22 and a KenPom ranking of 42 (which would have likely been better if you removed the games they were missing starters). You could make arguments before the tournament that they were better than at least some if not all of the 10 seeds (Oklahoma’s RPI = 49 KP = 47, Texas RPI=51 KP = 39, Butler RPI= 41 KP=25, Providence RPI = 32 KP = 63). And I am sure I could find some 7,8, and 9 seeds that had worse profiles according to the statistical rankings.
The Selection Committee made it very clear by where they ranked Loyola-Chicago. They were not in the tournament if it wasn’t for the fact that they won their conference tournament. The Ramblers have demonstrated that their 28-5 record was not a fluke and they deserved a better seed. Every year, we are surprised by how often a 5 seed or 6 seed loses to a 11 or 12 seed. But the reality is when they are playing the top mid-major conference champions, they are playing a team that probably should have been seeded much better.
Thankfully, the Ramblers won their conference tournament. If they had not, one of the best Cinderella stories of college basketball never would have happened. And that is a big mistake that the Selection Committee makes every year.