As many of you know, I love to see if I can do better at predicting the bracket with a few days of looking at the data compared to the experts in the media who do this for a living. One of the comments that always drove me nuts was when these media pundits would say that they got 67 of the 68 teams right – they are so great because they got over 98% of the teams.
But here is the thing – 32 of those teams are given to them – the automatic bids from each conference. And we haven’t even started talking about the ranked teams – if Virginia wins the ACC, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to guess that Duke and North Carolina are still going to make the tournament. By the time you remove some of the most obvious answers, you normally are talking about 12 out of 13 – still a good percentage – but doesn’t sound as good as 67 out of 68…….
So, lets start to define the bubble – without looking too hard at team profiles. We can use history to identify teams that have nothing to worry about. This will still make the bubble larger than it really is – but this is easy to do without looking too hard. Lets make a few assumptions:
- Lets assume the committee will use the NET ranking in a similar way that the RPI was used
- I don’t remember any major conference schools with a ranking in the top 30, and any smaller conference schools with a ranking in the top 20 that did not make the tournament.
- It is also extremely rare that a top 25 ranked team doesn’t make the tourney.
- No team outside of the top 80 receives an at-large bid – and typically no small conference outside of the top 50 gets on….
- There are not a lot of teams that make the tournament with 14 or more losses – it happens, but it puts you squarely in the most nervous part of the bubble.
- The committee likes to see teams who have beaten tough teams (their quadrant 1 wins) – you are in a weaker position if you have less than 2 of these wins
- You are not getting in with a losing record as an at-large team. You might be able to survive a losing record in conference – but overall is a non-starter.
When I apply these rules and add in the conference champions, I have already filled the bracket with 50 teams – leaving my current bubble at 18 teams. Lets divide the locks a little bit – in order to be able to move the bubble when necessary:
Already IN (with NET rankings in parentheses) – 9 teams:
Southern – Wofford (13), OVC – Murray St (43), Atlantic Sun – Liberty (59), Colonial – Northeastern (82), Horizon – Northern Kentucky (117), Big South – Gardner-Webb (173), MVC – Bradley (177), MAAC – Iona (203), NEC – Fairleigh Dickinson (215)
Single Bid Conferences (these are conferences with no team in the top 80 remaining) – with the top seed remaining listed – 10 teams:
Summit (3/12 – Omaha vs North Dakota St), Patriot (3/13 – Colgate vs Bucknell), America East (3/16 – Vermont), MEAC (3/16 – Norfolk St), SWAC (3/16 – Prairie View A&M), Big Sky (3/16 – Montana), Conf USA (3/16 – Old Dominion), Southland (3/16 – Sam Houston St), Ivy (3/17 – Harvard), Sun Belt (3/17 – Georgia St)
Major Conference Locks – the assumption is that the Bubble Stays the same size as long as one of these teams wins the tournament – 22 teams
ACC (6) – Virginia (2), Duke (3), UNC (7), Virginia Tech (11), Florida St (19), Louisville (22)
SEC (5) – Kentucky (5), Tennessee (6), LSU (14), Auburn (17), Mississippi State (21)
Big 10 (5) – Michigan State (8), Michigan (10), Purdue (12), Wisconsin (15), Maryland (26)
Big 12 (4) – Texas Tech (9), Kansas (20), Iowa State (23), Kansas State (24)
Big East (2) – Villanova (25), Marquette (29)
Pac 12 (0) – We will get to them later – Not sure what to do with them…….
Smaller Conference Locks – these are the more classic Bid Stealer situations – where one or two teams fit a locked profile – so if they lose in their tournament, the bubble shrinks – 5 teams
American (Houston – 4, Cincinnati – 27), West Coast (Gonzaga – 1), Mountain West (Nevada – 18), MAC (Buffalo – 16)
Bubble Conference Champions – these are conferences where the leader is in between the top 30 and top 80, so if they lose, these teams become part of the bubble pool – 4 teams (with some comments)
Atlantic 10 – VCU (31) – the Rams look like they have a good profile, but being from a smaller conference, it is better for them to not lose their quarterfinal game.
Pac 12 – Washington (38) – This to me is shocking that none of the Pac 12 teams are in the top 30. I find it hard to believe that Washington would be left out as the regular season champion of a major conference. But they only have 2 wins against the Quadrant 1 teams with no opportunity to improve upon that in their tournament – which is not the best of the bubble profile positions. It would make everyone’s lives easier if the Huskies simply win the Pac 12 tournament.
WAC – New Mexico State (46) – New Mexico State has no victories against a Quadrant 1 team. That is not a good position for a smaller conference bubble team. Their NET ranking is under 50, so it is worth at least looking at the rest of their profile – but they likely have to win the WAC title.
Big West – UC Irvine (75) – UC Irvine only has one win against a Quadrant 1 team – but with a NET ranking of 75, they are not getting in. But I feel if they are in the top 80, they deserve to be mentioned on the bubble – even if their only realistic shot is getting the Big West automatic bid.
So – at this point, the remaining teams in the Top 80 are fighting for 18 spots. We can now divide the bubble into groups that indicate their risk – realize that this is not an exact ranking – I have only looked at NET ranking, number of quadrant 1 wins (without seeing who those wins are) and number of losses – but it still makes it easier to look at teams when they are in groups. You also don’t get in simply by being in the first few groups – all these teams have blemishes on their record.
Top 50 Major Conference Teams with Safer Profiles (at least 3 Quadrant 1 wins and less than 13 losses – since if they lose in their tournament and need an at-large bid, they fall into the 14 loss group….) – 6 teams
Mississippi (34), Baylor (36), Oklahoma (40), Iowa (42), Syracuse (44), TCU (47)
Top 50 Small Conference Teams with Safer Profiles – At least 3 Quadrant 1 wins – 1 team
Utah State (30)
Major Conference Teams That Have at Least 2 Quadrant 1 wins and less than 13 losses – 8 teams
North Carolina State (32), Creighton (54), Minnesota (56), Oregon (61), Seton Hall (62), St. John’s (66), Arizona State (67), Georgetown (76)
Small Conference Top 50 Teams with 2 Quadrant 1 wins – 4 teams
UCF (28), Belmont (45), Lipscomb (48), Temple (50)
NOTE – That is 19 teams so far in the above groups. As I said, obviously not all those 19 teams are better than the teams below – but you can start to feel which teams are more nervous…….
Top 50 Teams with only 1 Quadrant 1 Win (mainly small conference teams – with one exception from the ACC) – 3 teams
Clemson (35), St. Mary’s (37), Furman (41). NOTE: St. Mary’s is up 4 with 12 minutes left on #1 Gonzaga. If they can hold on, they steal bid by sending Gonzaga to the at-large pool. Of course, as I type this, St. Mary’s turns the ball over and Gonzaga hits a 3 to cut the lead to 1….. Sorry, St. Mary’s fans – we know what the Lunatic curse does.
Top 50 Teams With 13 or More Losses – these teams have multiple quality wins, but also have lots of losses – 7 teams
Florida (33), Texas (39), Indiana (51), Ohio State (55), Xavier (70), Providence (74), South Carolina (78)
Two Strikes – Only 2 Quadrant 1 Wins and 13 or More Losses – 2 teams
Nebraska (52), Alabama (57)
Two Slightly Worse Strikes – Only 1 Quadrant 1 Wins and 13 or More Losses – 2 teams
Butler (63), Arkansas (64)
Major Conference Team with No Quadrant 1 Wins – 1 team
Colorado (69) – Not sure how this happens. Colorado is only 19-11, but because of the weakness of the Pac 12 conference, they are 0-2 against Quadrant 1 teams. I think Colorado’s only chance to get an at-large bid is to beat Washington in the semi-finals (the only chance for a Quadrant 1 win in the tournament) and then lose to Oregon or Arizona State in the final. And I suspect that will not be enough.
Small Conference Teams with 1-2 Quadrant 1 Wins but Ranked between 50-80 – These teams rarely get in – but I feel they are in the Top 80 – they deserve their place in the blog. – 4 teams
Memphis (53), UNC Greensboro (58), Dayton (65), Fresno State (79)
Small Conference Teams with No Quadrant 1 Wins – these teams never get in – but as before – they deserve their place in the blog – 5 teams
Toledo (60), Davidson (68), Hofstra (71), East Tennessee State (72), San Francisco (73),
Major Conference Teams with Losing Records – they will not make it – but if I list a major team in the 70s, it seems like we should mention all of them – 3 teams
Penn State (49), Missouri (77), Texas A&M (80) – by the way, this is important to say that the system still has some bugs. If Minnesota beats Penn State on Thursday in the quater-finals, they will get credited with a Quadrant 1 victory despite the fact that Penn State has no chance whatsoever of making the tournament. Guess maybe the Nittany Lions fall a couple places – and it turns into a Quadrant 2 game – but still doesn’t feel right.
You can safely remove the last 3 groups – so that means 18 spots for 34 teams (generously). Well, 17 spots for 33 teams – St. Mary’s is up 56-47 on #1 Gonzaga with 50.1 seconds and going to the line!!!! The #1 team in the country is going to lose and one of the bubble teams in the crazy nervous positions took the decision out of the Selection Committee’s hands and earned the automatic bid. You have to love March Madness!!!!!!!
AFTER THE FACT NOTE: Obviously, 2 more bids have been earned as I typed this. Congratulations to St. Mary’s and North Dakota State (the Summit Conference Champion)