I thought for sure that the Selection Committee would want to put Conference Champions into the #1 seeds – figured that the way teams are playing, Tennessee and Michigan State would be those teams.  So in my Bracketology listed in the links – I had moved them into the top line.  Then, Tennessee lost badly – so they fall to the 2 seed.  I thought the Selection Committee might be too afraid to have 3 ACC schools as 1 seeds – so I moved Gonzaga up to that spot.  Figured it was close enough between those two teams that the Committee would probably go with the WCC team (to be clear, I think UNC is better – but I am trying to guess what the committee would do…..)

Now, Michigan State had another player go down with an injury and are down 8 at half – and Houston is losing as well.  So, now I have to figure out what will happen with Cincinnati’s seed if they win.

Currently, I have Houston as the #2 seed – but that was under the assumption that the Wolverines would lose for the third time to the Spartans.

So, if Michigan wins (regardless of the American) – the top seeds are Duke, Virginia, UNC, and Gonzaga – with Michigan St, Tennessee, Kentucky and Michigan as the 2 seeds.

If Houston loses, Michigan is the last 2 seed – even if they lose to Michigan State.

Of course, that means Cincinnati wins – in that case, I am going to have them moving up a seed – which will knock Louisville down to a 7 seed.

As for my bubble – as much as I don’t like it, I think the committee is going to give the last 4 spots to teams who have demonstrated the ability of winning against top 50 teams, even if they have a lot of losses to go with them.  I had Oklahoma, Arizona State and TCU as 3 of the last 4 in – leaving me deciding between Indiana and Xavier.

Both teams have a large amount of losses – so I had to give the last spot to Indiana – they have more Quadrant 1 wins than most of the 9-12 seeds.  I have to admit – as a Boilermaker, I tried hard to convince myself this was not how this would go down.  Maybe the committee would reward Xavier’s close game to Villanova in the Big East tournament.  Maybe they would reward a mid-major like Temple, Memphis or Belmont for having a good record by beating the teams that they should beat.  But at the end of the day, I find the Selection Committee always leans towards the bigger schools.  And at the end of the day, if I had to pick between Indiana – and some of the other schools on the wrong side of the bubble (like Xavier, Clemson, St. John’s and Alabama), the committee will likely go with the Hoosiers.

That being said, this might be the best thing that I can do as a Boilermaker fan.  Everything I have put on the Bracketology page has been tough – built the bracket assuming Tennessee, Michigan State and Houston would win and that is not how things are going right now.  Maybe the Hoosiers would have a better chance of making the tourney if I pick someone else.   So, that just gives me more reason to pick Indiana as the last team in.   Go Lunatic Curse!!!!!!