That’s right – the Lunatic takes many beatings in March.  He spends lots of time creating a bracketology page that doesn’t matter.  Then, he gets stomped with his bracket picks.  So, why not add more of a time-consuming process of handicapping all 67 games – normally ending with lots of incorrect picks.  Because if you think it is hard to pick the games straight-up, it is much harder to pick once you have to include the Vegas line-makers spread.

So, that gives more reason to do this silly exercise.  I have to be better than most compulsive gamblers (EDITOR’S NOTE – the response to that statement is obviously no).

I could build models that can perform better than the ones that make Las Vegas millions of dollars (EDITOR’S NOTE – that is laughable.  First of all, while I believe I am talented statistician, it is not realistic to believe that I can build a better model with less data and much less time.  Second, if the Vegas statisticians were not talented, the Sportsbooks would go under – they are really good at what they do to make millions of dollars for the casinos.  But more importantly – the Lunatic would rather spend his time ranting – he is not going to successfully build a model in two days that can beat Vegas so he will rely on his deep insight and gut – that is a recipe for disaster).

As I make my picks, I can give excellent one-liner statements that can give all of you some insight into the games (EDITORS NOTE – some insight is a loose term.  But it should at least be entertaining – and that in itself has to make it worth it).

I will add the typical Lunatic disclosure – this is for recreational purposes only.  And if you want any proof of why this should be recreational purposes – over my life-time, I have visited Las Vegas multiple times.   And I have never left a Vegas sportsbook with more money than I started with.

Enjoy the handicapping page – link is in the Handicapping section.