This is one of my standard blog posts that I have been struggling with writing. But part of the reason is typically, we grade the conferences based on expectations. The seeds help us determine which teams have over-performed and which teams have under-performed. So, what do you do when the expectations are out-of-whack. Is it fair to create grades where the conference that won the most games in the tournament performed the worst. But at the end of the day, life is not fair – we will do the best that we can.
Big 10 (13 wins – 10 expected) – A. The Big 10 gets my best grade, and yet I can only give an A. The Big 10 had 5 teams out-perform expectations. Iowa, Minnesota and Ohio State were all supposed to lose in the first round and they pulled the Upset. Purdue was supposed to get knocked out in the Sweet 16, and they came 6 seconds away from the Final 4. And Michigan State were able to beat the unbeatable Duke Blue Devils. So – why is this not an A+. Because once again, the Big 10 failed to get over the hump and win the championship. The conference has the stigma of a conference with tons of good teams and no great teams – they wanted to win the tournament to remove that stigma and the path was clear once Michigan State took down Duke. And then it was closed by Texas Tech’s amazing defense. So, the tournament showed how deep this conference is – but they are still looking for greatness.
Big 12 (8 wins – 7 expected) – A-. The Big 12 jumps to an A thanks to their conference champion Texas Tech. They were supposed to go away in the Sweet 16 and here they are playing for the championship. And at this point, after the way they completely stopped Michigan State, could anyone be surprised if the Red Raiders win the whole thing. Baylor and Oklahoma also surprised with slight upsets as 9 seeds. And considering how well Auburn did, I am not sure I can punish Kansas too much for falling a round short to the Tigers. But Iowa State did lose unexpectedly to Ohio State, and #4 Kansas State’s trip to the Sweet 16 never got off the ground when they had the biggest upset seed-wise of the tournament to UC-Irvine. Still, from an expectation stand-point, no one expected the Big 12 to be in the Final – the top of this conference carries their grade.
Pac 12 (4 wins – 0.5 expected) – A-. The Pac 12 was supposed to be eliminated from the tournament after the first round. The 0.5 expected win was from the First 4 play-in that Arizona State won. But then Washington upset Utah State to make the second round. And Oregon – who would not even have been invited to the tournament if they had not won the automatic bid – ended up in the Sweet 16. The Pac 12 really wasn’t supposed to win a game – and each of their 3 teams won a game. So, why is this an A-. Because at the end of the day, the Pac 12 is a major conference. And major conferences don’t consider success having their best team eliminated in the Sweet 16. They showed that they are more talented than expected, but you can’t be excited about 4 wins when the other major players are winning double digit games.
SEC (12 wins – 11 expected) – B+. Auburn as a 5 seed was supposed to be gone by the end of the second round. Except the SEC toAurnament champions had different plans – as they knocked off #1 seed North Carolina, conference rival #2 seed Kentucky, and almost took out Virginia in the Final 4. Other than Texas Tech, no team has exceeded expectations more than Auburn. Florida also pulled an upset to get to the second round. Kentucky (Elite 8) and LSU (Sweet 16) met what are pretty tough expectations. And Tennessee came overtime away from meeting its lofty expectations of the Elite 8. Ole Miss did get upset in an 8-9 game by Oklahoma, and Mississippi State fell victim to the classic 5/12 upset to Liberty – but there are really not a lot of blemishes. So why not an A. Well, the grader of this class is biased. And as well as Auburn and LSU did, I can’t stop thinking about the fact that their coaches (and thus, current players) broke the rules by paying their players.
American (3 wins – 3.5 expected) – B. UCF may have only performed 1 game over expectations by winning their 8/9 game – but they came inches away from pulling off the biggest upset of the tournament against Duke. And for a smaller conference like the American conference, while Houston was expected to get to the Sweet 16, it is a big deal for a school like Houston to get to the Sweet 16. If Cincinnati had not been upset by Iowa, this would have been an even more impressive tournament for the American.
West Coast (3 wins – 4 expected) – B. This is an unfair conference to grade. But I will. St. Mary’s wasn’t supposed to win a game – and they lost to Villanova. And then there is Gonzaga – who was only down 2 points to the Red Raiders with 12 seconds in their attempt to meet expectations of a Final Four. So, why is this a B – because while Gonzaga might not want to admit it – they are still part of a mid-major conference. And mid-major conferences having teams in the Elite 8 is an incredible performance – regardless of what the seeds say.
A couple more conferences before we get to the elephant in the room.
Big East (1 win – 2.5 expected) – D. The Big East like the Pac 12 is considered a major conference. But based on their 4 teams seeds, they do not look like a major conference. Then, when Villanova is the only team that wins a game, and the top seed from the conference in Marquette gets upset by a 12 seed in Murray State (and doesn’t even look competitive against that 12 seed), it is a bad tournament. The Big East is a proud conference that includes last year’s champion – not getting a team out of the second round is a disappointment for them – even if the seeds say that is what should have happened.
Ohio Valley (2 wins – 0.5 expected) – A. It doesn’t feel right to give the Ohio Valley the only A+ with only 2 wins. But lets be really clear here. It is incredible that this mid-major conference got an at-large team in Belmont into the tournament. But past that, both Belmont and Murray State won a game in this tournament. The Ohio Valley champion typically is just happy getting a chance to play in the tournament. This year, the Ohio Valley’s two teams did more than just play – they won. That deserves a ton of praise – even if it is only 2 wins. Both Belmont and Murray State belonged in the tournament, and they backed it up.
OK – here we go…………
ACC (14 wins – 21 expected) – C. I still don’t know if this grade is fair. Lets be honest. If your conference was expected to win 10 games and you only won 3, this grade would be an F. How can I give a conference that finished 7 games below expectations a C. Unless Virginia wins the championship tonight, not a single team in the ACC will have performed above expectations. Well, part of the problem with expectations is the ACC entered the tournament with 3 #1 seeds. Duke, Virginia and UNC were supposed to all be playing in Minneapolis on their way to 15 wins in the tournament. (Let that sink in, those 3 teams were expected to win more games than any of the other conferences that were placing 7 and 8 teams). Sure, Louisville and Syracuse bombed out – they were supposed to get past the First Round and they were upset by Minnesota and Baylor. The middle of the conference did pretty well. Florida State and Virginia Tech were expected to make the Sweet 16 as #4 seeds, and they did exactly that. And Virginia Tech almost beat Duke in the Sweet 16 – which would have been pretty impressive, but wouldn’t have impacted the conference’s number of wins. But UNC got blown out in the Sweet 16 by Auburn. When you are a 1 seed, you are not supposed to be blown out by anyone, especially not in the Sweet 16 – that was rough. And Duke was supposed to win the whole tournament – and they barely snuck by UCF and Virginia Tech before finally coming up against a team they couldn’t sneak past in Michigan State. I can’t give them an F – they had 5 teams in the Sweet 16 and won more games than any conference in the tournament. Regardless of what Virginia does tonight, the ACC is still the best conference in college basketball. But I can’t give them an A either. They were supposed to absolutely dominate this tournament – Duke was supposed to be unstoppable with Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett, and they were supposed to be joined in the Final 4 by the two conference regular-season champions. And if it wasn’t for an amazing last second comeback against Purdue, the best conference in the country almost didn’t have a team in the Final 4 when they were supposed to have 3. And that team needed last second heroics to get past Auburn to get to the championship. Virginia might very well defend the ACC’s honor and win the National Championship. But Virginia being in the championship game is the only thing that makes this a passing grade for the ACC.
That being said, I will go back to the Selection Committee on this one – as I said before, I have to give the Selection Committee a lot of credit for sticking to their guns about the fact that they are seeding teams not conferences. If they think the best 3 teams in the country are Duke, Virginia and UNC – then, those teams should all get #1 seeds. But I think this tournament is the cautionary tale of why while that is a great principle, the selection committee is wrong – we have to also seed conferences. Michigan State had the same number of losses and one more victory than UNC, and won both the Big 10 conference regular season and conference tournament title. Texas Tech at 26-6 had the same number of losses as UNC and one less victory that the Tar Heels and won the Big 12 conference – somehow, that was only worthy of a 3 seed. The SEC had 3 teams that had records that were the same or slightly better than Texas Tech and UNC (LSU, Tennessee and Kentucky). There is great basketball being played in all the conferences – and while it is easy to get blinded by the fact that the ACC is still the best conference in the country, you can’t simply give them all the protected seeds. The other conference champions have shown they also have earned that right – and they have demonstrated through their success in the tournament that whether the selection committee seeds them in a way that gives them a harder road, they are still champions, and champions rise to the top. Maybe it doesn’t matter – if the champions will rise to the top no matter who they play, then I guess it doesn’t matter if the Selection Committee gives them a 2, 3 or 4 seed. But it certainly doesn’t feel fair. Just like the ACC getting a C in this article for having the most victories in the tournament and a chance to win the National Championship – sadly, life is not always fair.