As we said in the last post, there are really likely 60 teams playing for 37 at-large spots. But we would like to know what teams are likely locks into the tournament, and which are really still on the bubble.
And we want to do it quickly – I don’t want to pour over schedules just yet. I simply want to start to define groupings. So, lets establish our locks.
Lets first make an assumption – remember we really have 70 teams and 47 spots – there are 11 potential multi-bid conferences (and one is decided). For right now, lets place the highest ranked NET team in these spots (partly out of laziness so that I don’t have to look up conference standings) – we will list the one team who has actually punched their ticket first..
- Missouri Valley – Loyola – Chicago (10)
- WCC – Gonzaga (1)
- Big 12 – Baylor (2)
- Big 10 – Michigan (3)
- American – Houston (5)
- SEC – Alabama (7)
- Big East – Villanova (11)
- Pac 12 – Colorado (12)
- ACC – Virginia (13)
- Mountain West – San Diego State (21)
- Atlantic 10 – St Bonaventure (27)
Next, there are only two ranked teams that I remember that have missed the NCAA tournament (2014 – SMU and 2004 – Utah State). My memory is not always perfect – I wouldn’t be surprised if I missed someone (probably recent). Considering both of these teams are from smaller conferences, and the bottom of the current top 25 polls are from the major 6 conferences, I think you can safely lock the teams in this weeks poll.
You also have to remember the NET / RPI rankings. There has never been a top 30 RPI / NET school from a major 6 conference that has missed the tournament – and the best ranked team to miss the tournament was #21 Missouri State in 2006. I’ve mentioned Colgate’s weird situation a couple times – so they get left out of this conversation. This will give you the following locks:
- Illinois – Big 10 (4 – AP #3)
- Iowa – Big 10 (6 – AP #5)
- Ohio St – Big 10 (9 – AP #9)
- Kansas – Big 12 (14 – AP #11)
- USC – Pac 12 (15 – AP #24)
- Arkansas – SEC (16 – AP #8)
- Texas Tech – Big 12 (17 – AP #20)
- Tennessee – SEC (18)
- BYU – WCC (19)
- Purdue – Big 10 (20 – AP #21)
- Florida State – ACC (22 – AP #15)
- West Virginia – Big 12 (23 – AP #10)
- Texas – Big 12 (24 – AP #13)
- Creighton – Big East (25 – AP #17)
- Wisconsin – Big 10 (26)
- LSU – SEC (28)
- Florida – SEC (29)
- Oklahoma State – Big 12 (30 – AP #12)
- Oregon – Pac 12 (32 – Coaches #25)
- Oklahoma – Big 12 (33 – AP #25)
- Virginia Tech – ACC (42 – AP #22)
So – very quickly, without looking at schedules and simply trusting the rankings, you can lock in 21 teams. Sure – it is always possible for teams to shift. It would likely be a good thing for Wisconsin, LSU and Florida to win their first tournament game so they stay in the top 30. But I would likely believe that they are OK – remember, not only would they have to drop because of the loss, but 16 more teams have to pass them. A loss might push them back – but probably not far enough out of the tournament.
That leaves 16 spots for the remaining 39 teams. There are two teams that are not as safe – because they are our place-holders.
First, there is San Diego State – our Mountain West “champion”. They are likely safe. They currently are at 21st (that magical number that only Missouri State didn’t survive). They are also 19th in the polls, which adds another level of safety. The part that is scary is that they are 0-3 in their Quad 1 games. They are 6-1 against Quad 2 – so the committee might look past the gap, but they join Colgate as the only team in the NET top 50 without a Quad 1 victory. The good news is that if the NET rankings stay as is and they beat Boise St, Utah St or Colorado St in the conference tournament, they will remove that hole.
Next, there is St Bonaventure – our Atlantic 10 “champion”. I think they are safe, but as a team from the Atlantic 10 hovering around a ranking of 30th, they probably fall into the bubble conversation.
Still – unless something strange happens, these teams are the ones playing this week for seeding. You will probably hear their name called on Sunday.