Its late, but bracketology is on a roll – why not do one last quick categorization. There are a few other things that we can look through that can order the teams without looking at anything but the Nitty Gritty summary.

• Based on my memory – the worst record to make the tournament is the 16-14 Georgia team from 2001.
• Teams don’t tend to get an at-large bid if they don’t have a Quad 1 victory. Sometimes the committee will look past it if they have a ton of Quad 2 wins – but at the end of the day, the committee selections teams that have beaten other teams in the bracket.
• If you are not in the top 6 conferences (Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big East and Pac 12), you better be in the top 50 of the NET. Not saying it doesn’t happen – but a mid-major team has few chances to get Quad 1 wins to begin with – it helps to be looked at with the teams in the top 30-50.

The Bubble Crashers – these are the teams that are outside of the top 80, but could come crashing into the rankings if the make it to their tournament championship (probably taking out a top 10 team along the way). You can only be in this group if you are in a major conference. Sure – Marshall might jump into the top 80 if they make it to the Conf USA final. But they still have no chance for a Quad 1 victory to grab the committee’s attention. This also doesn’t include a team like Notre Dame – at 10-14, they could win the ACC tournament and still have a worse record than Georgia did in 2001. They don’t need the at-large bid if they win 5 games in the tournament, and they don’t have a .500 record without those 5 wins. We won’t really look at these teams unless they go on a streak – if they are still playing on Saturday or Sunday, we will have to re-evaluate them

• Marquette (87) – 13-13
• Pitt (92) – 10-11
• Georgia (94) – 14-11

Already out due to losing record or ineligible – these teams have a losing record going into the tournament. They are in the top 80 of the rankings, but they are out barring winning their tournament.

• Penn State (40) – 10-13
• Arizona (46) – 17-9 but ineligible
• Kentucky (59) – 9-15
• Indiana (61) – 12-14
• Auburn (69) – 13-14 and ineligible
• Minnesota (79) – 13-14

No wins against Quad 1 teams – the two American teams might still get another chance at Houston. The other two have their season over with so are likely done.

• Memphis (52) – American (15-7)
• SMU (56) – American (11-4)
• Davidson (62) – Atlantic 10 (13-8)
• St. Marys CA (64) – WCC (14-8)

Mid-major outside the top 60 – only one team in this bucket has a chance – but it is hard to tell. That is Wichita State – they still have the American in front of them. But they also have the interesting fact that they are the American’s regular season champion – one would think it was 7th ranked Houston, but Houston actually fell behind Wichita State by conference winning percentage.

• Wichita State (65) – American (15-4)
• Richmond (70) – Atlantic 10 (13-8)
• Dayton (80) – Atlantic 10 (14-9)

Better win 2 or 3 games this week – these teams have records that are between .500 and 2 games above .500. Remember that Georgia team was 2 games above .500. I don’t suspect that a 13-12 team makes it.

• Seton Hall (58) – Big East (13-12)
• Duke (60) – ACC (11-11)
• Stanford (71) – Pac 12 (14-12)
• Providence (77) – Big East (13-12)
• Mississippi State (78) – SEC (14-13)

Have No Clue How to Handle – this just shows how confusing this is. Colgate has a NET ranking of 8!!!!! If they seed simply on the ranking, they are a #2 seed!!!!! I can’t believe that they are an at-large candidate, but how can I take them off the bubble. I really hope they win the Patriot.

Outside the top 50 – some of these teams are surprising that they are here (Louisville), some of them have some of the best wins on the bubble (Michigan St), but regardless, I am categorizing without deep diving into schedules

• Louisville (51) – ACC (13-6)
• Mississippi (53) – SEC (15-10)
• Xavier (57) – Big East (13-7)
• North Carolina State (66) – ACC (13-9)
• Michigan State (67) – Big 10 (15-11)
• St. John’s (68) – Big East (16-10)

Remaining Mid-Major Teams – these teams have had great seasons. But they are in the mid-major conferences. And I have seen too many top mid-major teams not get into the tournament due to not enough quality wins. I think it is a shame – and this is probably the type of season to give the mid-majors more chances. But they are on the bubble because history has not been kind to this group.

• Boise State (43) – Mountain West (18-7)
• St. Louis (44) – Atlantic 10 (14-6)
• Drake (47) – Missouri Valley (25-4)
• Utah State (48) – Mountain West (18-7)
• Colorado State (50) – Mountain West (17-5)

Remaining Major Teams – this is the largest group – not all of these teams are ranked equally. But they might be some of the safest teams on the bubble from a history perspective.

• Connecticut (31) – Big East (14-6)
• Maryland (34) – Big 10 (15-12)
• Clemson (36) – ACC (16-6)
• Rutgers (37) – Big 10 (14-10)
• Georgia Tech (38) – ACC (15-8)
• North Carolina (39) – ACC (16-9)
• UCLA (41) – Pac 12 (17-8)
• Missouri (45) – SEC (15-8)
• Syracuse (49) – ACC (15-8)

Loser of the Atlantic 10 championship – St. Bonaventure is 15-4 and ranked 27th. VCU is 19-6 and ranked 35th. They were the top 2 teams in the regular season, and they survived to make it to the tournament final. They also play the championship on Sunday. Remember, Selection Sunday is money to the NCAA. Their game will finish approximately 3 hours before the bracket is released. It is possible they could simply have both in already. But if VCU is on the outside of the bracket and they win on their home court on Sunday, would the committee simply put them in the spot they placed St. Bonaventure so that they can get a bracket out the door. I have heard stories of contingency brackets so that they can move from bracket to bracket based on the results of the championships on Sunday – but I am obviously not in the room… Who knows what will be going through the mind of the Selection Committee at 3 pm EST. If I had to go based on my initial gut instinct, I think both teams are in.

So – there you go. 16 spots for 40 teams if we include the bubble crashers and remove the two ineligible teams. But the reality is that I think the teams really looking at this are the last 4 categories. Those 21 teams really have the best chances at the 16 remaining spots…..