With only three games left to go, we can start to look through the 8 possible outcomes to see what result will be the best for you. If you notice in the list of links on the left, there are now 8 scenario standings for you to see what happens if that event happens – it lists out the standings for all three pools.
IMPORTANT NOTE: These scenario standings are unofficial. I only audit the official standings on the menu at the top of the page. These are just meant for fun so you don’t have to try to guess how many people you pass (or how many pass you) based on each game.
Assuming I have no errors in my scenarios, lets see who is rooting for what to happen.
First, the Upset Pool is pretty simple. Gregg Farber has done amazingly well – thanks to his upset pick of UCLA getting to the Final 4. Gregg will win the Upset Pool if 7 of the 8 scenarios happen. In a ironic twist of fate, the only way Gregg can lose is if the favorite Gonzaga beats the other #1 seed Baylor in the championship – then, Joe Chapman will score just enough points to catch Gregg. Basically, Gregg needs one more upset to happen to win the upset pool.
For the Standard Pool, we obviously have a little bit more variety. But the fact that an 11 seed has crashed the party does narrow the field a little.
If UCLA wins, we name Gregg Farber both the Standard and Upset Pool winner. And he will completely deserve it for being the only person who would be daring enough to pick UCLA to win the entire tournament. I am not sure if Gregg picked UCLA because he is a super-fan of the team, he saw something the rest of the world didn’t as the Bruins were losing their last four games of the season, or if Gregg is a Michigan State fan and was so bummed that his Spartans lost in the First Four that he just didn’t bother to change his pick. Regardless of his reasons, it will be an incredible victory.
If Baylor wins, John Greene will be the champion. He would have done the best of the people who had the foresight to pick Baylor to beat Gonzaga. To be fair, thanks to our Los Angeles party crasher, he would have done the best of the people who simply picked Baylor to win – it doesn’t matter whether he gets the Gonzaga game right.
If the favorites win out, with Gonzaga beating Baylor, Kelly Woods will be the champion. However, if Gonzaga beats Houston, Emily Schumaker and Kevin Bostic will tie for the lead thanks to the extra points the Cougars will get them in the semi-finals.
If Houston can surprise both Baylor and Gonzaga, Jocelyn Knox will be the champion. However, if UCLA can pull one more gigantic upset and end Gonzaga’s undefeated season before losing to Houston in the final, our UCLA fan, Gregg Farber will manage to tie Jocelyn for the championship.
In the Second Chance Pool, half of the scenarios are owned by my wonderful wife, Elizabeth. For her, it really comes down to one game. If Houston can beat Baylor on Saturday, she gets enough points to win the Second Chance Pool. Since no one picked appears to have picked Houston or UCLA to win, while she might be happier if her final picks of Gonzaga staying undefeated against Houston happen, she simply needs the Cougars to win one more game.
Since no one backed the Bruins, a similar thing happens if Baylor wins the championship. It won’t matter if they beat Gonzaga or UCLA in the final, Sarah Ahles and Chris Kelly will tie for the Second Chance Pool victory – as they have done best of those picking Baylor to beat Gonzaga (or anyone else).
Kennedy Urban is rooting the favorites to win. Kennedy wins the Second Chance Pool if Gonzaga beats Baylor on Monday. But Kennedy has another way to win. If UCLA beats Baylor in the Championship game, Kennedy will tie for the Second Chance Pool victory with Tom Forrest – who had Michigan beating Baylor.
So – those are our unofficial leaders. Regardless of if you are rooting to place in the pools, rooting for your favorite team to win, or rooting for the underdogs to continue to cause havoc in the tournament, it should be a fantastic set of games to end the season. Good luck to everyone!!!!!