I decided to use a very systematic approach to this – it creates a relatively chalky type result, but it meets some typical rules.

In the first round, I am going to use the Vegas line to handicap. If Vegas thinks the favorite is only going to win by 2.5 or less points, I am going to pick an upset. In many cases, this matched what I mentioned in the Bumper Night Podcast, so I feel good about it. This leads to upsets by Memphis, Rutgers/ND (I don’t have time to wait for the line to get set), and Davidson in the West. In the East, I get Indiana, Virginia Tech and San Francisco. In the South, TCU, Michigan and Loyola will have upsets. In the Midwest, we get Creighton, South Dakota St and Miami FL advancing.

In the second round, we assume the chalk gets its revenge – at the end of the day, the championship tends to be decided by teams that are in the Top 12 teams – so try to have as many of them in the Sweet 16 as possible. The only non-protected seeds (top 4) that happen are UNC beating Baylor, Loyola beating Villanova, and Iowa beating Cinderella South Dakota St.

In the Sweet 16, we have mostly conference champions (regular season or tournament) – the only place that I am going to avoid is the West where I am going to let things break down. So, I have Texas Tech upseting Duke and Arkansas upseting Gonzaga with Texas Tech winning the West. In the East, UCLA ends UNC’s run, while Kentucky sadly beats Purdue – with Kentucky taking the East. In the South, Arizona and Tennessee advance – with Arizona winning the region. And in the Midwest, the chalk advance with Kansas beating Auburn in the final.

That leads to Arizona cutting down the nets in New Orleans by beating both Kansas and Kentucky.